{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4312967071","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/tcds.2022.3220963","title":"Priors, Progressions, and Predictions in Science Learning: Theory-Based Bayesian Models of Children\u2019s Revising Beliefs of Water Displacement","display_name":"Priors, Progressions, and Predictions in Science Learning: Theory-Based Bayesian Models of Children\u2019s Revising Beliefs of Water Displacement","publication_year":2022,"publication_date":"2022-11-09","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4312967071","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/tcds.2022.3220963"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1109/tcds.2022.3220963","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/tcds.2022.3220963","pdf_url":"https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/ielx7/7274989/7422051/09944004.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2488537894","display_name":"IEEE Transactions on Cognitive and Developmental Systems","issn_l":"2379-8920","issn":["2379-8920","2379-8939"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319808","host_organization_name":"Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319808"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"IEEE Transactions on Cognitive and Developmental Systems","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"hybrid","oa_url":"https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/ielx7/7274989/7422051/09944004.pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5086983290","display_name":"Joseph Colantonio","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6333-9250"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I102322142","display_name":"Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey","ror":"https://ror.org/05vt9qd57","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I102322142"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Joseph A. Colantonio","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Psychology, Rutgers University-Newark, Newark, NJ, USA"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6333-9250","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Psychology, Rutgers University-Newark, Newark, NJ, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I102322142"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5017873930","display_name":"Igor Bascandziev","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6830-8728"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I136199984","display_name":"Harvard University","ror":"https://ror.org/03vek6s52","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I136199984"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Igor Bascandziev","raw_affiliation_strings":["Graduate School of Education, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6830-8728","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Graduate School of Education, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I136199984"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5059851712","display_name":"Maria Theobald","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0766-1680"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210138519","display_name":"DIPF | Leibniz Institute for Research and Information in Education","ror":"https://ror.org/0327sr118","country_code":"DE","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I315704651","https://openalex.org/I4210138519"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Maria Theobald","raw_affiliation_strings":["Education and Human Development, Leibniz Institute for Research and Information in Education, Frankfurt, Germany"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Education and Human Development, Leibniz Institute for Research and Information in Education, Frankfurt, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210138519"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5071732942","display_name":"Garvin Brod","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7976-5609"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210138519","display_name":"DIPF | Leibniz Institute for Research and Information in Education","ror":"https://ror.org/0327sr118","country_code":"DE","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I315704651","https://openalex.org/I4210138519"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Garvin Brod","raw_affiliation_strings":["Education and Human Development, Leibniz Institute for Research and Information in Education, Frankfurt, Germany"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Education and Human Development, Leibniz Institute for Research and Information in Education, Frankfurt, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210138519"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5053594805","display_name":"Elizabeth Bonawitz","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7005-9345"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I136199984","display_name":"Harvard University","ror":"https://ror.org/03vek6s52","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I136199984"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Elizabeth Bonawitz","raw_affiliation_strings":["Graduate School of Education, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Graduate School of Education, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I136199984"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":5,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":2.737,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":11,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.90347072,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":94,"max":98},"biblio":{"volume":"15","issue":"3","first_page":"1487","last_page":"1500"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10656","display_name":"Child and Animal Learning Development","score":0.9983999729156494,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3204","display_name":"Developmental and Educational Psychology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/32","display_name":"Psychology"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10656","display_name":"Child and Animal Learning Development","score":0.9983999729156494,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3204","display_name":"Developmental and Educational Psychology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/32","display_name":"Psychology"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12072","display_name":"Machine Learning and Algorithms","score":0.9611999988555908,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11303","display_name":"Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference","score":0.9544000029563904,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.6745311617851257},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/inference","display_name":"Inference","score":0.5904489755630493},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bayesian-inference","display_name":"Bayesian inference","score":0.5810349583625793},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/artificial-intelligence","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","score":0.5767908692359924},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bayesian-probability","display_name":"Bayesian probability","score":0.5727682709693909},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/prior-probability","display_name":"Prior probability","score":0.5632364749908447},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/machine-learning","display_name":"Machine learning","score":0.5552670955657959},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computational-model","display_name":"Computational model","score":0.5120342373847961},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/construct","display_name":"Construct (python library)","score":0.5002024173736572},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/perception","display_name":"Perception","score":0.4990992546081543},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/causal-inference","display_name":"Causal inference","score":0.4960976541042328},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bayesian-network","display_name":"Bayesian network","score":0.47880181670188904},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/causal-model","display_name":"Causal model","score":0.46707916259765625},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/approximate-inference","display_name":"Approximate inference","score":0.4105337858200073},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/cognitive-psychology","display_name":"Cognitive psychology","score":0.34131574630737305},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/psychology","display_name":"Psychology","score":0.26082608103752136},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.13282442092895508},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/econometrics","display_name":"Econometrics","score":0.12950953841209412}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.6745311617851257},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776214188","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q408386","display_name":"Inference","level":2,"score":0.5904489755630493},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C160234255","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812535","display_name":"Bayesian inference","level":3,"score":0.5810349583625793},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.5767908692359924},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107673813","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812534","display_name":"Bayesian probability","level":2,"score":0.5727682709693909},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C177769412","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q278090","display_name":"Prior probability","level":3,"score":0.5632364749908447},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.5552670955657959},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C66024118","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1122506","display_name":"Computational model","level":2,"score":0.5120342373847961},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780801425","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5164392","display_name":"Construct (python library)","level":2,"score":0.5002024173736572},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C26760741","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160402","display_name":"Perception","level":2,"score":0.4990992546081543},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C158600405","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5054566","display_name":"Causal inference","level":2,"score":0.4960976541042328},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33724603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812540","display_name":"Bayesian network","level":2,"score":0.47880181670188904},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C11671645","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5054567","display_name":"Causal model","level":2,"score":0.46707916259765625},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777472644","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q16968992","display_name":"Approximate inference","level":3,"score":0.4105337858200073},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C180747234","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23373","display_name":"Cognitive psychology","level":1,"score":0.34131574630737305},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.26082608103752136},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.13282442092895508},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.12950953841209412},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C169760540","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q207011","display_name":"Neuroscience","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199360897","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9143","display_name":"Programming language","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1109/tcds.2022.3220963","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/tcds.2022.3220963","pdf_url":"https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/ielx7/7274989/7422051/09944004.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2488537894","display_name":"IEEE Transactions on Cognitive and Developmental Systems","issn_l":"2379-8920","issn":["2379-8920","2379-8939"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319808","host_organization_name":"Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319808"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"IEEE Transactions on Cognitive and Developmental Systems","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:share.osf.io:E003D-224-705","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://osf.io/3k68n/","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401127","display_name":"OSF Preprints (OSF Preprints)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I2799848540","host_organization_name":"Center for Open Science","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2799848540"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"project"},{"id":"pmh:oai:share.osf.io:d6e73b65-c21e-4773-93e2-1ab8cc13d6ba","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://osf.io/3k68n","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401127","display_name":"OSF Preprints (OSF Preprints)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I2799848540","host_organization_name":"Center for Open Science","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2799848540"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Project"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1109/tcds.2022.3220963","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/tcds.2022.3220963","pdf_url":"https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/ielx7/7274989/7422051/09944004.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2488537894","display_name":"IEEE Transactions on Cognitive and Developmental Systems","issn_l":"2379-8920","issn":["2379-8920","2379-8939"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319808","host_organization_name":"Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319808"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"IEEE Transactions on Cognitive and Developmental Systems","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/4","score":0.46000000834465027,"display_name":"Quality Education"}],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G4406101366","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"BR 5736/2-1","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320320879","funder_display_name":"Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320320879","display_name":"Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft","ror":"https://ror.org/018mejw64"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320322261","display_name":"Jacobs Foundation","ror":"https://ror.org/03tj32a09"}],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4312967071.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4312967071.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":83,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W968931504","https://openalex.org/W1553148111","https://openalex.org/W1591672062","https://openalex.org/W1963681763","https://openalex.org/W1965831205","https://openalex.org/W1966158176","https://openalex.org/W1969048615","https://openalex.org/W1971796508","https://openalex.org/W1973035334","https://openalex.org/W1976009192","https://openalex.org/W1976193044","https://openalex.org/W1983749002","https://openalex.org/W1986230825","https://openalex.org/W1986759574","https://openalex.org/W1989748540","https://openalex.org/W1995875735","https://openalex.org/W2018055239","https://openalex.org/W2029377105","https://openalex.org/W2029999159","https://openalex.org/W2030363767","https://openalex.org/W2034532433","https://openalex.org/W2043187947","https://openalex.org/W2050330432","https://openalex.org/W2053555487","https://openalex.org/W2053616188","https://openalex.org/W2058371103","https://openalex.org/W2058716997","https://openalex.org/W2062718236","https://openalex.org/W2063451005","https://openalex.org/W2070442724","https://openalex.org/W2072629384","https://openalex.org/W2073744046","https://openalex.org/W2106848425","https://openalex.org/W2114826854","https://openalex.org/W2120212072","https://openalex.org/W2120606367","https://openalex.org/W2122517769","https://openalex.org/W2123713131","https://openalex.org/W2134948265","https://openalex.org/W2136677635","https://openalex.org/W2140347507","https://openalex.org/W2142958664","https://openalex.org/W2146722303","https://openalex.org/W2147877980","https://openalex.org/W2149379080","https://openalex.org/W2150342508","https://openalex.org/W2152761785","https://openalex.org/W2162188269","https://openalex.org/W2166622580","https://openalex.org/W2170085538","https://openalex.org/W2338716892","https://openalex.org/W2504110702","https://openalex.org/W2611673377","https://openalex.org/W2744805829","https://openalex.org/W2792332779","https://openalex.org/W2792731373","https://openalex.org/W2793675245","https://openalex.org/W2892303585","https://openalex.org/W2901939372","https://openalex.org/W2918255532","https://openalex.org/W2962897895","https://openalex.org/W2963305465","https://openalex.org/W2969275636","https://openalex.org/W2971320416","https://openalex.org/W2974063679","https://openalex.org/W2980624415","https://openalex.org/W2981277085","https://openalex.org/W2991610402","https://openalex.org/W3000814413","https://openalex.org/W3043202850","https://openalex.org/W3105294734","https://openalex.org/W3134229098","https://openalex.org/W3138597356","https://openalex.org/W3159770609","https://openalex.org/W3160381131","https://openalex.org/W3185710391","https://openalex.org/W3210134045","https://openalex.org/W4211081781","https://openalex.org/W4213133354","https://openalex.org/W4302454383","https://openalex.org/W6630001685","https://openalex.org/W6724525658","https://openalex.org/W6799437177"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W3215034539","https://openalex.org/W4313422683","https://openalex.org/W4289440770","https://openalex.org/W2894915327","https://openalex.org/W2161504683","https://openalex.org/W4282978140","https://openalex.org/W4386240783","https://openalex.org/W2119991646","https://openalex.org/W2888243788","https://openalex.org/W4387566568"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Despite":[0],"sometimes":[1],"noisy":[2],"evidence":[3],"(e.g.,":[4],"perceptual":[5],"processing":[6],"errors),":[7],"young":[8],"children":[9,180],"are":[10,116],"capable":[11],"of":[12,35,48,65,73,80,92,113,120,152,189,192],"predicting":[13],"and":[14,27,71,83,106,186],"evaluating":[15],"events":[16],"based":[17,134],"on":[18,135],"complex":[19],"causal":[20,38,59],"representations.":[21],"Children":[22],"rapidly":[23],"revise":[24],"their":[25,136],"beliefs":[26,70,129],"learn":[28],"scientific":[29],"concepts":[30],"-sometimes":[31],"without":[32],"prior":[33,128,137],"knowledge":[34],"an":[36,145],"underlying":[37],"system.":[39],"What":[40],"might":[41],"we":[42,76,125,140,157,173],"need":[43],"in":[44,164,195],"our":[45],"computational":[46,93,108,171],"models":[47,119],"belief":[49,84,153],"revision":[50,85,154],"to":[51],"similarly":[52],"simulate":[53],"children\u2019s":[54,68,127,142],"behaviors":[55],"when":[56],"learning":[57,143],"such":[58],"systems?":[60],"Building":[61],"from":[62],"experimental":[63],"data":[64],"elementary":[66],"school":[67],"intuitive":[69],"predictions":[72,194],"water":[74],"displacement,":[75],"propose":[77],"three":[78],"aspects":[79,115],"human":[81],"inference":[82],"that":[86,179],"warrant":[87],"attention":[88],"within":[89],"the":[90,101,131,150,159,190],"subfield":[91],"cognition.":[94],"Each":[95],"aspect":[96],"is":[97],"described":[98],"by":[99],"identifying":[100],"gaps":[102],"between":[103],"empirical":[104],"findings":[105],"current":[107],"implementations.":[109],"Then,":[110],"specific":[111],"implementations":[112],"these":[114,169],"built":[117],"using":[118,144],"Theory-based":[121],"Bayesian":[122,147],"inference.":[123],"First,":[124],"construct":[126],"at":[130],"individual":[132],"level":[133],"behavior.":[138],"Second,":[139],"approximate":[141],"\u201coptimal\u201d":[146],"model,":[148],"revealing":[149],"dynamics":[151],"trial-by-trial.":[155],"Third,":[156],"investigate":[158],"role":[160],"prediction":[161],"may":[162,181],"have":[163],"facilitating":[165],"learning.":[166,197],"By":[167],"performing":[168],"key":[170],"steps,":[172],"find":[174],"support":[175],"for":[176],"contemporary":[177],"claims":[178],"be":[182],"approximately":[183],"\u201cBayesian\u201d":[184],"learners":[185],"increase":[187],"awareness":[188],"importance":[191],"generating":[193],"active":[196]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":4}],"updated_date":"2026-06-11T09:08:48.828518","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}
