{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4411336598","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ojcs.2025.3580107","title":"BOL-LPP: A Bayesian-Optimized LSTM Model for Day-Ahead Load Price Forecasting in the ERCOT Market","display_name":"BOL-LPP: A Bayesian-Optimized LSTM Model for Day-Ahead Load Price Forecasting in the ERCOT Market","publication_year":2025,"publication_date":"2025-01-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4411336598","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ojcs.2025.3580107"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1109/ojcs.2025.3580107","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ojcs.2025.3580107","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210176459","display_name":"IEEE Open Journal of the Computer Society","issn_l":"2644-1268","issn":["2644-1268"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319808","host_organization_name":"Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319808"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"IEEE Open Journal of the Computer Society","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","doaj"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ojcs.2025.3580107","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5109535488","display_name":"Yassine Mohamed","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6962-7619"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I106969075","display_name":"Idaho State University","ror":"https://ror.org/0162z8b04","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I106969075"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Yomna Mohamed","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, College of Science and Engineering, Idaho State University, Pocatello, ID, USA","Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, College of Science and Engineering, Idaho State University, Pocatello, USA"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, College of Science and Engineering, Idaho State University, Pocatello, ID, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I106969075"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, College of Science and Engineering, Idaho State University, Pocatello, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I106969075"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5068882573","display_name":"Mostafa M. Fouda","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1790-8640"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I106969075","display_name":"Idaho State University","ror":"https://ror.org/0162z8b04","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I106969075"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Mostafa M. Fouda","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, College of Science and Engineering, Idaho State University, Pocatello, ID, USA","Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, College of Science and Engineering, Idaho State University, Pocatello, USA"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, College of Science and Engineering, Idaho State University, Pocatello, ID, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I106969075"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, College of Science and Engineering, Idaho State University, Pocatello, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I106969075"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5063911030","display_name":"Zubair Md. Fadlullah","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4785-2425"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I125749732","display_name":"Western University","ror":"https://ror.org/02grkyz14","country_code":"CA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I125749732"]}],"countries":["CA"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Zubair Md Fadlullah","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Computer Science, Western University, London, Ontario, Canada","Department of Computer Science, Western University, London, Canada"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Computer Science, Western University, London, Ontario, Canada","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I125749732"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Computer Science, Western University, London, Canada","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I125749732"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5118212358","display_name":"Rabab Abdelfattah","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I44854399","display_name":"University of Southern Mississippi","ror":"https://ror.org/0270vfa57","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210141039","https://openalex.org/I44854399"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Rabab Abdelfattah","raw_affiliation_strings":["School of Computer Science and Computer Engineering, University of Southern Mississippi, Hattiesburg, MS, USA","School of Computer Science and Computer Engineering, University of Southern Mississippi, Hattiesburg, USA"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Computer Science and Computer Engineering, University of Southern Mississippi, Hattiesburg, MS, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I44854399"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Computer Science and Computer Engineering, University of Southern Mississippi, Hattiesburg, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I44854399"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5053163516","display_name":"Mohamed I. Ibrahem","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8000-4161"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I25041050","display_name":"Augusta University","ror":"https://ror.org/012mef835","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I25041050"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Mohamed I. Ibrahem","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Cyber Systems Engineering, Augusta University, Augusta, GA, USA","Department of Cyber Systems Engineering, Augusta University, Augusta, USA"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Cyber Systems Engineering, Augusta University, Augusta, GA, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I25041050"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Cyber Systems Engineering, Augusta University, Augusta, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I25041050"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":5,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5109535488"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I106969075"],"apc_list":{"value":1750,"currency":"USD","value_usd":1750},"apc_paid":{"value":1750,"currency":"USD","value_usd":1750},"fwci":2.9099,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":4,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.91101466,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":95,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"6","issue":null,"first_page":"1001","last_page":"1011"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11052","display_name":"Energy Load and Power Forecasting","score":0.9829000234603882,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2208","display_name":"Electrical and Electronic Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11052","display_name":"Energy Load and Power Forecasting","score":0.9829000234603882,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2208","display_name":"Electrical and Electronic Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10424","display_name":"Electric Power System Optimization","score":0.95169997215271,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2208","display_name":"Electrical and Electronic Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bayesian-probability","display_name":"Bayesian probability","score":0.5835067629814148},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.4811490774154663},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/econometrics","display_name":"Econometrics","score":0.37728095054626465},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/artificial-intelligence","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","score":0.3212418556213379},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/economics","display_name":"Economics","score":0.31430310010910034}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107673813","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812534","display_name":"Bayesian probability","level":2,"score":0.5835067629814148},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.4811490774154663},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.37728095054626465},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.3212418556213379},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.31430310010910034}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1109/ojcs.2025.3580107","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ojcs.2025.3580107","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210176459","display_name":"IEEE Open Journal of the Computer Society","issn_l":"2644-1268","issn":["2644-1268"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319808","host_organization_name":"Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319808"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"IEEE Open Journal of the Computer Society","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:5b277f73cdc3415c8cba6c8250990666","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/5b277f73cdc3415c8cba6c8250990666","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S112646816","display_name":"SHILAP Revista de lepidopterolog\u00eda","issn_l":"0300-5267","issn":["0300-5267","2340-4078"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"IEEE Open Journal of the Computer Society, Vol 6, Pp 1001-1011 (2025)","raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1109/ojcs.2025.3580107","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ojcs.2025.3580107","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210176459","display_name":"IEEE Open Journal of the Computer Society","issn_l":"2644-1268","issn":["2644-1268"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319808","host_organization_name":"Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319808"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"IEEE Open Journal of the Computer Society","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":44,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1498436455","https://openalex.org/W1966065781","https://openalex.org/W1988608305","https://openalex.org/W2039240409","https://openalex.org/W2073383222","https://openalex.org/W2087004578","https://openalex.org/W2092368362","https://openalex.org/W2102148524","https://openalex.org/W2597866042","https://openalex.org/W2734777338","https://openalex.org/W2905388713","https://openalex.org/W2944851425","https://openalex.org/W2952103966","https://openalex.org/W2962444989","https://openalex.org/W2989518474","https://openalex.org/W3003943177","https://openalex.org/W3024761859","https://openalex.org/W3096114387","https://openalex.org/W3122598275","https://openalex.org/W3128928242","https://openalex.org/W3136075374","https://openalex.org/W3179085432","https://openalex.org/W3185906304","https://openalex.org/W3207968197","https://openalex.org/W4206561927","https://openalex.org/W4211176610","https://openalex.org/W4225301669","https://openalex.org/W4306385795","https://openalex.org/W4316035371","https://openalex.org/W4319159759","https://openalex.org/W4360619614","https://openalex.org/W4386179386","https://openalex.org/W4388550577","https://openalex.org/W4400275479","https://openalex.org/W4400351786","https://openalex.org/W4400525441","https://openalex.org/W4400646754","https://openalex.org/W4400883789","https://openalex.org/W4402156730","https://openalex.org/W4403826461","https://openalex.org/W4404373862","https://openalex.org/W4404577340","https://openalex.org/W6638545294","https://openalex.org/W6861005113"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2899084033","https://openalex.org/W2748952813","https://openalex.org/W4391375266","https://openalex.org/W2390279801","https://openalex.org/W4391913857","https://openalex.org/W2358668433","https://openalex.org/W4396701345","https://openalex.org/W2376932109","https://openalex.org/W2001405890","https://openalex.org/W4396696052"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Precise":[0],"short-term":[1,191],"load":[2,30,54,89,192],"price":[3,31,55,90,193],"forecasting":[4],"is":[5,93],"critical":[6],"for":[7,57,88],"uninterrupted":[8],"and":[9,13,66,98,136,154,171,198],"efficient":[10],"power-system":[11],"operation":[12],"energy-market":[14],"performance.":[15],"Although":[16],"machine-learning":[17],"techniques":[18],"have":[19],"been":[20],"widely":[21],"employed":[22],"to":[23,124],"predict":[24],"market":[25],"prices,":[26],"achieving":[27],"reliable":[28],"day-ahead":[29,53],"forecasts":[32],"remains":[33,145],"challenging":[34],"in":[35,38,202],"practice,":[36],"especially":[37],"the":[39,102,119,125,152,165,178,183,203],"Electric":[40],"Reliability":[41],"Council":[42],"of":[43,113,131],"Texas":[44],"(ERCOT)":[45],"energy-only":[46],"market.":[47,205],"This":[48],"paper":[49],"targets":[50],"sufficiently":[51],"accurate":[52],"prediction":[56],"ERCOT's":[58],"zonal":[59],"markets":[60],"by":[61,121,137,182],"modeling":[62],"historical":[63],"load,":[64],"price,":[65],"weather":[67],"data":[68],"with":[69,141,164],"a":[70,108],"Long":[71],"Short-Term":[72],"Memory":[73],"(LSTM)":[74],"network":[75],"whose":[76],"hyperparameters":[77],"are":[78],"tuned":[79],"via":[80],"Bayesian":[81],"Optimization":[82],"(BO).":[83],"The":[84],"resulting":[85],"Bayesian-Optimized":[86],"LSTM":[87],"Prediction":[91],"(BOL-LPP)":[92],"evaluated":[94],"against":[95],"classical":[96],"statistical":[97],"deep-learning":[99],"baselines.":[100],"On":[101],"North-zone":[103],"test":[104],"set,":[105],"BOL-LPP":[106,186],"attains":[107],"Mean":[109,167,172],"Absolute":[110,173],"Error":[111,169,175],"(MAE)":[112],"<inline-formula":[114,132,147],"xmlns:mml=\"http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML\"":[115,133,148],"xmlns:xlink=\"http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink\"><tex-math":[116,134,149],"notation=\"LaTeX\">${\\$}$</tex-math></inline-formula>0.0044/MWh,":[117],"cutting":[118],"MAE":[120,130,144],"32%":[122],"relative":[123],"strongest":[126],"deep":[127],"baseline":[128],"(BiLSTM,":[129],"notation=\"LaTeX\">${\\$}$</tex-math></inline-formula>0.0065/MWh)":[135],"over":[138],"99%":[139],"compared":[140],"SARIMAX.":[142],"Its":[143],"below":[146],"notation=\"LaTeX\">${\\$}$</tex-math></inline-formula>0.006/MWh":[150],"on":[151],"Coast":[153],"South":[155],"zones,":[156],"confirming":[157],"robust":[158],"generalization.":[159],"These":[160],"numerical":[161],"results,":[162],"along":[163],"reported":[166],"Squared":[168],"(MSE),":[170],"Percentage":[174],"(MAPE),":[176],"validate":[177],"performance":[179],"gains":[180],"delivered":[181],"proposed":[184],"model.":[185],"therefore":[187],"promises":[188],"markedly":[189],"improved":[190],"forecasts,":[194],"supporting":[195],"informed":[196],"decision-making":[197],"enhanced":[199],"operational":[200],"efficiency":[201],"ERCOT":[204]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":2}],"updated_date":"2026-03-31T07:56:22.981413","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}