{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2048775245","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/itng.2012.160","title":"Successful Forecasting for Knowledge Discovery by Statistical Methods","display_name":"Successful Forecasting for Knowledge Discovery by Statistical Methods","publication_year":2012,"publication_date":"2012-04-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2048775245","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/itng.2012.160","mag":"2048775245"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1109/itng.2012.160","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/itng.2012.160","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"2012 Ninth International Conference on Information Technology - New Generations","raw_type":"proceedings-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5016901515","display_name":"Yas A. Alsultanny","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6211-7074"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I53218197","display_name":"Arabian Gulf University","ror":"https://ror.org/04gd4wn47","country_code":"BH","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I53218197"]}],"countries":["BH"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Yas Alsultanny","raw_affiliation_strings":["College of Graduate Studies, Arabian Gulf University, Manama, Bahrain","Coll. of Grad. Studies, Arabian Gulf Univ., Manama, Bahrain"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"College of Graduate Studies, Arabian Gulf University, Manama, Bahrain","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I53218197"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Coll. of Grad. Studies, Arabian Gulf Univ., Manama, Bahrain","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I53218197"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5016901515"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I53218197"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":2.037,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":15,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.87497253,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":97},"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":"584","last_page":"588"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11891","display_name":"Big Data and Business Intelligence","score":0.741599977016449,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1404","display_name":"Management Information Systems"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/14","display_name":"Business, Management and Accounting"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11891","display_name":"Big Data and Business Intelligence","score":0.741599977016449,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1404","display_name":"Management Information Systems"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/14","display_name":"Business, Management and Accounting"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.6995000243186951,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11875","display_name":"Statistics Education and Methodologies","score":0.682200014591217,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2613","display_name":"Statistics and Probability"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mean-absolute-error","display_name":"Mean absolute error","score":0.607025682926178},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/technology-forecasting","display_name":"Technology forecasting","score":0.5943461656570435},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/forecast-error","display_name":"Forecast error","score":0.5843010544776917},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mean-squared-error","display_name":"Mean squared error","score":0.5672926902770996},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/moving-average","display_name":"Moving average","score":0.5542381405830383},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/time-series","display_name":"Time series","score":0.5419244766235352},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probabilistic-forecasting","display_name":"Probabilistic forecasting","score":0.529065728187561},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.5179539918899536},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/series","display_name":"Series (stratigraphy)","score":0.49715474247932434},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mean-absolute-percentage-error","display_name":"Mean absolute percentage error","score":0.45966872572898865},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/statistics","display_name":"Statistics","score":0.4482010304927826},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/econometrics","display_name":"Econometrics","score":0.37101978063583374},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/machine-learning","display_name":"Machine learning","score":0.28774046897888184},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/artificial-intelligence","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","score":0.28103241324424744},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.254145085811615}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C188154048","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6803609","display_name":"Mean absolute error","level":3,"score":0.607025682926178},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C161657586","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1203326","display_name":"Technology forecasting","level":2,"score":0.5943461656570435},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C174303752","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3624438","display_name":"Forecast error","level":2,"score":0.5843010544776917},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C139945424","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1940696","display_name":"Mean squared error","level":2,"score":0.5672926902770996},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C175706884","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1130194","display_name":"Moving average","level":2,"score":0.5542381405830383},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151406439","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q186588","display_name":"Time series","level":2,"score":0.5419244766235352},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C122282355","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7246855","display_name":"Probabilistic forecasting","level":3,"score":0.529065728187561},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.5179539918899536},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C143724316","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q312468","display_name":"Series (stratigraphy)","level":2,"score":0.49715474247932434},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C150217764","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6803607","display_name":"Mean absolute percentage error","level":3,"score":0.45966872572898865},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.4482010304927826},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.37101978063583374},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.28774046897888184},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.28103241324424744},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.254145085811615},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49937458","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2599292","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","level":2,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151730666","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7205","display_name":"Paleontology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86803240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q420","display_name":"Biology","level":0,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1109/itng.2012.160","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/itng.2012.160","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"2012 Ninth International Conference on Information Technology - New Generations","raw_type":"proceedings-article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/4","display_name":"Quality Education","score":0.8100000023841858}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":12,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1131233601","https://openalex.org/W1561625600","https://openalex.org/W1570448133","https://openalex.org/W1602675622","https://openalex.org/W1673075472","https://openalex.org/W2126189915","https://openalex.org/W2131989935","https://openalex.org/W2182889283","https://openalex.org/W3195234955","https://openalex.org/W4206209869","https://openalex.org/W4250001656","https://openalex.org/W6679631514"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2353105242","https://openalex.org/W3216004817","https://openalex.org/W4245040295","https://openalex.org/W2392786429","https://openalex.org/W3125745298","https://openalex.org/W3081484245","https://openalex.org/W2126638593","https://openalex.org/W4352990948","https://openalex.org/W2128990672","https://openalex.org/W2048775245"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"The":[0,68],"importance":[1],"of":[2],"statistical":[3],"forecasting":[4,25,44,75,92],"is":[5,16,26],"in":[6,19,28,58,80],"its":[7],"ability":[8],"to":[9,54],"discover":[10],"hidden":[11],"knowledge":[12],"from":[13],"databases.":[14],"Forecasting":[15],"used":[17],"successfully":[18],"many":[20],"sectors.":[21],"In":[22],"this":[23,59],"paper,":[24],"implemented":[27],"the":[29,72,77,82,88],"educational":[30],"sector,":[31],"three":[32],"time":[33],"series":[34],"algorithms":[35],"are":[36,110],"used,":[37],"namely-simple":[38],"moving":[39,90],"average":[40,43,91,95],"forecasting,":[41,96],"weighted":[42,94],"and":[45,61,93,106],"linear":[46,73],"trend":[47,74],"forecasting.":[48],"Six":[49],"secondary":[50],"schools":[51],"(from":[52],"7th":[53],"9th)":[55],"were":[56],"selected":[57],"study":[60],"data":[62],"was":[63,76],"collected":[64],"for":[65],"9":[66],"years.":[67],"results":[69],"indicate":[70],"that":[71],"most":[78],"accurate":[79],"predicting":[81],"school":[83],"success":[84],"ratio":[85],"compared":[86],"with":[87],"simple":[89],"as":[97,99],"far":[98],"mean":[100,103],"absolute":[101,107],"error,":[102],"square":[104],"error":[105,109],"percentage":[108],"concerned.":[111]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2025-11-06T03:46:38.306776","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}
