{"id":"https://openalex.org/W3005148131","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/isse46696.2019.8984561","title":"Development and evaluation of a method to estimate the probabilities of occurrence of environment- and system scenarios based on the valuation of trends and a Cross-Impact-Analysis","display_name":"Development and evaluation of a method to estimate the probabilities of occurrence of environment- and system scenarios based on the valuation of trends and a Cross-Impact-Analysis","publication_year":2019,"publication_date":"2019-10-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W3005148131","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/isse46696.2019.8984561","mag":"3005148131"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1109/isse46696.2019.8984561","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/isse46696.2019.8984561","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"2019 International Symposium on Systems Engineering (ISSE)","raw_type":"proceedings-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5033669457","display_name":"Florian Marthaler","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2432-4256"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I102335020","display_name":"Karlsruhe Institute of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/04t3en479","country_code":"DE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I102335020","https://openalex.org/I1305996414"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Florian Marthaler","raw_affiliation_strings":["Karlsruhe Institute of Technology,Karlsruhe,Germany","Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Karlsruhe Institute of Technology,Karlsruhe,Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I102335020"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I102335020"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5032594308","display_name":"Wolfram Buchta","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I102335020","display_name":"Karlsruhe Institute of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/04t3en479","country_code":"DE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I102335020","https://openalex.org/I1305996414"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Wolfram Buchta","raw_affiliation_strings":["Karlsruhe Institute of Technology,Karlsruhe,Germany","Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Karlsruhe Institute of Technology,Karlsruhe,Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I102335020"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I102335020"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5005025136","display_name":"Albert Albers","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5432-704X"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I102335020","display_name":"Karlsruhe Institute of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/04t3en479","country_code":"DE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I102335020","https://openalex.org/I1305996414"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Albert Albers","raw_affiliation_strings":["Karlsruhe Institute of Technology,Karlsruhe,Germany","Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Karlsruhe Institute of Technology,Karlsruhe,Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I102335020"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I102335020"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5026437031","display_name":"Nikola Bursac","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4383-4614"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210139566","display_name":"TRUMPF (Germany)","ror":"https://ror.org/03459qp74","country_code":"DE","type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210139566"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Nikola Bursac","raw_affiliation_strings":["TRUMPF Werkzeugmaschinen GmbH + Co. KG Ditzingen,Germany","TRUMPF Werkzeugmaschinen GmbH + Co. KG Ditzingen, Germany"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"TRUMPF Werkzeugmaschinen GmbH + Co. KG Ditzingen,Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210139566"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"TRUMPF Werkzeugmaschinen GmbH + Co. KG Ditzingen, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210139566"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":4,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5033669457"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I102335020"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.24033331,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":"1","last_page":"10"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T14306","display_name":"Technology Assessment and Management","score":0.9908999800682068,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2213","display_name":"Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T14306","display_name":"Technology Assessment and Management","score":0.9908999800682068,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2213","display_name":"Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11729","display_name":"Product Development and Customization","score":0.9728999733924866,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1405","display_name":"Management of Technology and Innovation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/14","display_name":"Business, Management and Accounting"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10672","display_name":"Design Education and Practice","score":0.9624999761581421,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2210","display_name":"Mechanical Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/futures-studies","display_name":"Futures studies","score":0.6966137886047363},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/new-product-development","display_name":"New product development","score":0.675872802734375},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.6274194717407227},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/valuation","display_name":"Valuation (finance)","score":0.5972808003425598},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/product","display_name":"Product (mathematics)","score":0.5314463973045349},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/risk-analysis","display_name":"Risk analysis (engineering)","score":0.4960368573665619},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/order","display_name":"Order (exchange)","score":0.4182833433151245},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/term","display_name":"Term (time)","score":0.4175838828086853},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/business","display_name":"Business","score":0.14938601851463318},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/artificial-intelligence","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","score":0.09248742461204529}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C64848388","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188867","display_name":"Futures studies","level":2,"score":0.6966137886047363},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C19351080","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1395034","display_name":"New product development","level":2,"score":0.675872802734375},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.6274194717407227},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C186027771","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4008379","display_name":"Valuation (finance)","level":2,"score":0.5972808003425598},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C90673727","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q901718","display_name":"Product (mathematics)","level":2,"score":0.5314463973045349},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C112930515","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4389547","display_name":"Risk analysis (engineering)","level":1,"score":0.4960368573665619},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C182306322","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1779371","display_name":"Order (exchange)","level":2,"score":0.4182833433151245},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C61797465","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1188986","display_name":"Term (time)","level":2,"score":0.4175838828086853},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144133560","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4830453","display_name":"Business","level":0,"score":0.14938601851463318},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.09248742461204529},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C10138342","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q43015","display_name":"Finance","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C62520636","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q944","display_name":"Quantum mechanics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2524010","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8087","display_name":"Geometry","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162853370","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q39809","display_name":"Marketing","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1109/isse46696.2019.8984561","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/isse46696.2019.8984561","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"2019 International Symposium on Systems Engineering (ISSE)","raw_type":"proceedings-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:tore.tuhh.de:11420/13266","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/11420/13266","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401751","display_name":"tub.dok (Hamburg University of Technology)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I884043246","host_organization_name":"Hamburg University of Technology","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I884043246"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"Conference Paper"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.6399999856948853,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/9","display_name":"Industry, innovation and infrastructure"}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":16,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W291441324","https://openalex.org/W1977074673","https://openalex.org/W2046942789","https://openalex.org/W2141481439","https://openalex.org/W2226019249","https://openalex.org/W2278047042","https://openalex.org/W2486619594","https://openalex.org/W2562222672","https://openalex.org/W2622908857","https://openalex.org/W2737525960","https://openalex.org/W2911736262","https://openalex.org/W4235227958","https://openalex.org/W6662018282","https://openalex.org/W6680961587","https://openalex.org/W6685911062","https://openalex.org/W6694834150"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W4390453990","https://openalex.org/W2370236282","https://openalex.org/W3156023083","https://openalex.org/W2292601982","https://openalex.org/W3164313706","https://openalex.org/W1995047307","https://openalex.org/W2118564637","https://openalex.org/W4388907197","https://openalex.org/W2046413193","https://openalex.org/W2534881938"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Studies":[0],"show,":[1],"that":[2],"decisions":[3,175],"made":[4],"in":[5,41,91,174,199,207],"the":[6,17,25,28,53,67,96,99,135,166,177,181,218,229,254,257],"early":[7,178,258],"phase":[8],"of":[9,24,33,45,55,69,89,98,145,147,149,154,157,159,180,220,222,239,241,260],"product":[10,26,39,46,115,172,182,261],"development":[11,20,63,168,183,262],"have":[12],"a":[13,74,92,191,202,231,248,251],"significant":[14],"impact":[15],"on":[16,27,73,228],"quality,":[18],"cost,":[19],"time":[21],"and":[22,77,84,106,169,225],"success":[23],"market":[29],"[10]":[30],"[15].":[31],"Activities":[32],"foresight":[34,90],"are":[35,139],"suited":[36,192],"to":[37,117,126,189,209,216,236,256],"support":[38],"developers":[40,116,173],"their":[42],"daily":[43],"activities":[44],"development.":[47],"The":[48,87,243],"basis":[49],"for":[50,109,137],"this":[51,200],"is":[52,205,234,245],"model":[54,68],"PGE":[56,70],"-":[57],"Product":[58,62],"Generation":[59],"Engineering":[60],"[2].":[61],"processes":[64],"described":[65],"by":[66,129],"always":[71],"rely":[72],"reference":[75],"system":[76],"distinguish":[78],"between":[79],"adoption":[80],"variation,":[81],"shape":[82],"variation":[83],"principle":[85],"variation.":[86],"use":[88,144],"systematic":[93],"approach":[94,113],"translates":[95],"findings":[97],"derived":[100],"future":[101,121,150,167,223],"scenarios":[102,160],"into":[103],"short-term,":[104],"medium-term":[105],"long-term":[107],"recommendations":[108,136],"action":[110,138],"[13].":[111],"This":[112],"supports":[114],"generate":[118,162],"knowledge":[119,164],"about":[120,165],"developments":[122],"as":[123,125],"well":[124],"minimize":[127],"risks":[128],"identifying":[130],"innovation":[131],"potential.":[132],"Until":[133],"now,":[134],"mainly":[140],"descriptive":[141],"without":[142],"any":[143],"probabilities":[146,156,238],"occurrence":[148,158,221,240],"events.":[151],"An":[152],"estimation":[153],"these":[155],"could":[161],"further":[163],"therefore":[170],"assist":[171],"during":[176],"stage":[179,259],"process":[184],"more":[185],"effectively.":[186],"In":[187,250],"order":[188,208],"develop":[190],"method":[193,233,244],"or":[194],"adapt":[195],"an":[196],"existing":[197],"method,":[198],"paper":[201],"literature":[203],"research":[204],"done":[206],"examine":[210],"what":[211],"methods":[212],"exist":[213],"so":[214],"far":[215],"assess":[217,237],"probability":[219],"events":[224],"scenarios.":[226,242],"Based":[227],"results":[230],"new":[232],"designed":[235],"validated":[246],"through":[247],"survey.":[249],"last":[252],"section":[253],"contribution":[255],"will":[263],"be":[264],"clarified.":[265]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-04-05T17:49:38.594831","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}
