{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4391342235","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/isgteurope56780.2023.10407112","title":"Probabilistic Forecasting of Day-Ahead Electricity Prices and their Volatility with LSTMs","display_name":"Probabilistic Forecasting of Day-Ahead Electricity Prices and their Volatility with LSTMs","publication_year":2023,"publication_date":"2023-10-23","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4391342235","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/isgteurope56780.2023.10407112"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1109/isgteurope56780.2023.10407112","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/isgteurope56780.2023.10407112","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"2023 IEEE PES Innovative Smart Grid Technologies Europe (ISGT EUROPE)","raw_type":"proceedings-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5035960114","display_name":"Julius Trebbien","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9831-876X"},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Julius Trebbien","raw_affiliation_strings":["Institute of Energy and Climate Research (IEK-10) Forschungszentrum Jülich,Jülich,Germany"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Institute of Energy and Climate Research (IEK-10) Forschungszentrum Jülich,Jülich,Germany","institution_ids":[]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5045498666","display_name":"Sebastian P\u00fctz","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0009-8468-4166"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210121389","display_name":"Kerntechnische Entsorgung Karlsruhe (Germany)","ror":"https://ror.org/02kd9ve64","country_code":"DE","type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210121389"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I158675288","display_name":"FIZ Karlsruhe \u2013 Leibniz Institute for Information Infrastructure","ror":"https://ror.org/0387prb75","country_code":"DE","type":"nonprofit","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I158675288","https://openalex.org/I315704651"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I102335020","display_name":"Karlsruhe Institute of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/04t3en479","country_code":"DE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I102335020","https://openalex.org/I1305996414"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Sebastian P\u00fctz","raw_affiliation_strings":["Institute for Automation and Applied Informatics Karlsruhe Institute of Technology Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen,Germany","Institute for Automation and Applied Informatics Karlsruhe Institute of Technology Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen, Germany"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Institute for Automation and Applied Informatics Karlsruhe Institute of Technology Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen,Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I158675288","https://openalex.org/I4210121389"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Institute for Automation and Applied Informatics Karlsruhe Institute of Technology Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I102335020"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5040295886","display_name":"Benjamin Sch\u00e4fer","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1607-9748"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210121389","display_name":"Kerntechnische Entsorgung Karlsruhe (Germany)","ror":"https://ror.org/02kd9ve64","country_code":"DE","type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210121389"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I158675288","display_name":"FIZ Karlsruhe \u2013 Leibniz Institute for Information Infrastructure","ror":"https://ror.org/0387prb75","country_code":"DE","type":"nonprofit","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I158675288","https://openalex.org/I315704651"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I102335020","display_name":"Karlsruhe Institute of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/04t3en479","country_code":"DE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I102335020","https://openalex.org/I1305996414"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Benjamin Sch\u00e4fer","raw_affiliation_strings":["Institute for Automation and Applied Informatics Karlsruhe Institute of Technology Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen,Germany","Institute for Automation and Applied Informatics Karlsruhe Institute of Technology Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen, Germany"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Institute for Automation and Applied Informatics Karlsruhe Institute of Technology Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen,Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I158675288","https://openalex.org/I4210121389"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Institute for Automation and Applied Informatics Karlsruhe Institute of Technology Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I102335020"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5033239366","display_name":"Heidi S. Nyg\u00e5rd","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1639-7634"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I54108979","display_name":"Norwegian University of Life Sciences","ror":"https://ror.org/04a1mvv97","country_code":"NO","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I54108979"]}],"countries":["NO"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Heidi S. Nyg\u00e5rd","raw_affiliation_strings":["Norwegian University of Life Sciences,Faculty of Science and Technology,Ås,Norway"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Norwegian University of Life Sciences,Faculty of Science and Technology,Ås,Norway","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I54108979"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5025650516","display_name":"Leonardo Rydin Gorj\u00e3o","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5513-0580"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I54108979","display_name":"Norwegian University of Life Sciences","ror":"https://ror.org/04a1mvv97","country_code":"NO","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I54108979"]}],"countries":["NO"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Leonardo Rydin Gorj\u00e3o","raw_affiliation_strings":["Norwegian University of Life Sciences,Faculty of Science and Technology,Ås,Norway"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Norwegian University of Life Sciences,Faculty of Science and Technology,Ås,Norway","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I54108979"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5082560876","display_name":"Dirk Witthaut","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3623-5341"},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Dirk Witthaut","raw_affiliation_strings":["Institute of Energy and Climate Research (IEK-10) Forschungszentrum Jülich,Jülich,Germany"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Institute of Energy and Climate Research (IEK-10) Forschungszentrum Jülich,Jülich,Germany","institution_ids":[]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":6,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5035960114"],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":0.4016,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":3,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.62229385,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":91,"max":96},"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":"1","last_page":"5"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11052","display_name":"Energy Load and Power Forecasting","score":0.9990000128746033,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2208","display_name":"Electrical and Electronic Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11052","display_name":"Energy Load and Power Forecasting","score":0.9990000128746033,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2208","display_name":"Electrical and Electronic Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.9901000261306763,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11059","display_name":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","score":0.9872000217437744,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/volatility","display_name":"Volatility (finance)","score":0.8076019287109375},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probabilistic-logic","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","score":0.7500964403152466},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probabilistic-forecasting","display_name":"Probabilistic forecasting","score":0.7226699590682983},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/electricity","display_name":"Electricity","score":0.6942322254180908},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/electricity-price-forecasting","display_name":"Electricity price forecasting","score":0.6393579244613647},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.5483766198158264},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/econometrics","display_name":"Econometrics","score":0.5384196639060974},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/electricity-price","display_name":"Electricity price","score":0.512643039226532},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/electricity-market","display_name":"Electricity market","score":0.44598427414894104},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/economics","display_name":"Economics","score":0.3455600142478943},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/artificial-intelligence","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","score":0.3435628116130829},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/engineering","display_name":"Engineering","score":0.11938706040382385}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C91602232","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q756115","display_name":"Volatility (finance)","level":2,"score":0.8076019287109375},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49937458","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2599292","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","level":2,"score":0.7500964403152466},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C122282355","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7246855","display_name":"Probabilistic forecasting","level":3,"score":0.7226699590682983},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C206658404","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12725","display_name":"Electricity","level":2,"score":0.6942322254180908},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781104810","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23580049","display_name":"Electricity price forecasting","level":4,"score":0.6393579244613647},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.5483766198158264},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.5384196639060974},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2983129042","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q870344","display_name":"Electricity price","level":3,"score":0.512643039226532},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C146733006","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q676081","display_name":"Electricity market","level":3,"score":0.44598427414894104},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.3455600142478943},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.3435628116130829},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127413603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11023","display_name":"Engineering","level":0,"score":0.11938706040382385},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119599485","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q43035","display_name":"Electrical engineering","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1109/isgteurope56780.2023.10407112","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/isgteurope56780.2023.10407112","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"2023 IEEE PES Innovative Smart Grid Technologies Europe (ISGT EUROPE)","raw_type":"proceedings-article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320320879","display_name":"Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft","ror":"https://ror.org/018mejw64"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320325698","display_name":"Helmholtz Association","ror":null}],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":34,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W658611389","https://openalex.org/W2007221293","https://openalex.org/W2064675550","https://openalex.org/W2077874012","https://openalex.org/W2095705004","https://openalex.org/W2135857591","https://openalex.org/W2136939460","https://openalex.org/W2185592418","https://openalex.org/W2779879818","https://openalex.org/W2792986740","https://openalex.org/W2890330768","https://openalex.org/W2920150917","https://openalex.org/W2971724044","https://openalex.org/W2990681302","https://openalex.org/W3106746256","https://openalex.org/W3152060302","https://openalex.org/W3159580687","https://openalex.org/W3185906304","https://openalex.org/W3209631732","https://openalex.org/W3210989681","https://openalex.org/W4214936883","https://openalex.org/W4220668785","https://openalex.org/W4224235620","https://openalex.org/W4225554538","https://openalex.org/W4231687540","https://openalex.org/W4286255092","https://openalex.org/W4289260137","https://openalex.org/W4290995988","https://openalex.org/W4293152083","https://openalex.org/W4311137816","https://openalex.org/W4322723719","https://openalex.org/W6631190155","https://openalex.org/W6674330103","https://openalex.org/W6680230698"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2347295811","https://openalex.org/W2369447767","https://openalex.org/W2034312879","https://openalex.org/W2883617008","https://openalex.org/W2536605339","https://openalex.org/W4389989272","https://openalex.org/W2780445776","https://openalex.org/W2361688698","https://openalex.org/W2392066416","https://openalex.org/W2365566977"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Accurate":[0],"forecasts":[1],"of":[2,10,17,34,61,75,95],"electricity":[3,21,53],"prices":[4,22,54,106],"are":[5],"crucial":[6],"for":[7,49,92],"the":[8,15,31,50,62,65,72,93,100],"management":[9],"electric":[11],"power":[12],"systems":[13],"and":[14,26,78,107],"development":[16],"smart":[18],"applications.":[19],"European":[20],"have":[23],"risen":[24],"substantially":[25],"became":[27],"highly":[28],"volatile":[29],"after":[30],"Russian":[32],"invasion":[33],"Ukraine,":[35],"challenging":[36],"established":[37],"forecasting":[38],"methods.":[39],"Here,":[40],"we":[41,97],"present":[42],"a":[43,82,86],"Long":[44],"Short-Term":[45],"Memory":[46],"(LSTM)":[47],"model":[48,66,102],"German-Luxembourg":[51],"day-ahead":[52],"addressing":[55],"these":[56],"challenges.":[57],"The":[58],"recurrent":[59],"structure":[60],"LSTM":[63,101],"allows":[64],"to":[67,69],"adapt":[68],"trends,":[70],"while":[71],"joint":[73],"prediction":[74],"both":[76,105],"mean":[77],"standard":[79],"deviation":[80],"enables":[81],"probabilistic":[83],"prediction.":[84],"Using":[85],"physics-inspired":[87],"approach\u2013superstatistics\u2013to":[88],"derive":[89],"an":[90],"explanation":[91],"statistics":[94],"prices,":[96],"show":[98],"that":[99],"faithfully":[103],"reproduces":[104],"their":[108],"volatility.":[109]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":2}],"updated_date":"2025-11-06T03:46:38.306776","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}