{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2104964025","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/icsm.2007.4362653","title":"On the prediction of the evolution of libre software projects","display_name":"On the prediction of the evolution of libre software projects","publication_year":2007,"publication_date":"2007-10-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2104964025","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/icsm.2007.4362653","mag":"2104964025"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1109/icsm.2007.4362653","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/icsm.2007.4362653","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210174939","display_name":"Proceedings/Proceedings - Conference on Software Maintenance","issn_l":"1063-6773","issn":["1063-6773","2576-3148"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319808","host_organization_name":"Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319808"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"2007 IEEE International Conference on Software Maintenance","raw_type":"proceedings-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5047942214","display_name":"Israel Herraiz","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0582-7539"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I182083151","display_name":"Universidad Rey Juan Carlos","ror":"https://ror.org/01v5cv687","country_code":"ES","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I182083151"]}],"countries":["ES"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Israel Herraiz","raw_affiliation_strings":["GSyC/LibreSoft-Libre Software Engineering Laboratory, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos de Madrid, Spain","Univ. Rey Juan Carlos, Rey Juan Carlos"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"GSyC/LibreSoft-Libre Software Engineering Laboratory, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos de Madrid, Spain","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I182083151"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Univ. Rey Juan Carlos, Rey Juan Carlos","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I182083151"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5066580987","display_name":"Jes\u00fas M. Gonz\u00e1lez-Barahona","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9682-460X"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I182083151","display_name":"Universidad Rey Juan Carlos","ror":"https://ror.org/01v5cv687","country_code":"ES","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I182083151"]}],"countries":["ES"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Jesus M. Gonzalez-Barahona","raw_affiliation_strings":["GSyC/LibreSoft-Libre Software Engineering Laboratory, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos de Madrid, Spain","Univ. Rey Juan Carlos, Rey Juan Carlos"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"GSyC/LibreSoft-Libre Software Engineering Laboratory, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos de Madrid, Spain","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I182083151"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Univ. Rey Juan Carlos, Rey Juan Carlos","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I182083151"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5061131972","display_name":"Greg\u00f3rio Robles","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1442-6761"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I182083151","display_name":"Universidad Rey Juan Carlos","ror":"https://ror.org/01v5cv687","country_code":"ES","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I182083151"]}],"countries":["ES"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Gregorio Robles","raw_affiliation_strings":["GSyC/LibreSoft-Libre Software Engineering Laboratory, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos de Madrid, Spain","Univ. Rey Juan Carlos, Rey Juan Carlos"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"GSyC/LibreSoft-Libre Software Engineering Laboratory, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos de Madrid, Spain","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I182083151"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Univ. Rey Juan Carlos, Rey Juan Carlos","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I182083151"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5027592388","display_name":"Daniel M. Germ\u00e1n","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5661-4392"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I212119943","display_name":"University of Victoria","ror":"https://ror.org/04s5mat29","country_code":"CA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I212119943"]}],"countries":["CA"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Daniel M. German","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Computer Science, University of Victoria, Canada","Department of Computer Science, University of Victoria (Canada), dmg@uvic.ca"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Computer Science, University of Victoria, Canada","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I212119943"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Computer Science, University of Victoria (Canada), dmg@uvic.ca","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I212119943"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":4,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5047942214"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I182083151"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":5.7982,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":37,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.95851598,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":90,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":"405","last_page":"414"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10260","display_name":"Software Engineering Research","score":0.9998000264167786,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1710","display_name":"Information Systems"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10260","display_name":"Software Engineering Research","score":0.9998000264167786,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1710","display_name":"Information Systems"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11675","display_name":"Open Source Software Innovations","score":0.9990000128746033,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1706","display_name":"Computer Science Applications"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10430","display_name":"Software Engineering Techniques and Practices","score":0.9344000220298767,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1710","display_name":"Information Systems"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.7381036281585693},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/software-evolution","display_name":"Software evolution","score":0.5723344087600708},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/casual","display_name":"Casual","score":0.5581625699996948},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/software","display_name":"Software","score":0.5185697674751282},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/software-engineering","display_name":"Software engineering","score":0.4594602882862091},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/data-science","display_name":"Data science","score":0.4494664967060089},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/software-development","display_name":"Software development","score":0.4448598623275757},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/data-mining","display_name":"Data mining","score":0.3532140254974365},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/software-construction","display_name":"Software construction","score":0.218915194272995},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/programming-language","display_name":"Programming language","score":0.18060433864593506}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.7381036281585693},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C202105479","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q265013","display_name":"Software evolution","level":5,"score":0.5723344087600708},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781426162","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2275793","display_name":"Casual","level":2,"score":0.5581625699996948},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777904410","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7397","display_name":"Software","level":2,"score":0.5185697674751282},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C115903868","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q80993","display_name":"Software engineering","level":1,"score":0.4594602882862091},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2522767166","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2374463","display_name":"Data science","level":1,"score":0.4494664967060089},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C529173508","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q638608","display_name":"Software development","level":3,"score":0.4448598623275757},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C124101348","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q172491","display_name":"Data mining","level":1,"score":0.3532140254974365},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C186846655","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3398377","display_name":"Software construction","level":4,"score":0.218915194272995},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199360897","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9143","display_name":"Programming language","level":1,"score":0.18060433864593506},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159985019","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q181790","display_name":"Composite material","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C192562407","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q228736","display_name":"Materials science","level":0,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1109/icsm.2007.4362653","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/icsm.2007.4362653","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210174939","display_name":"Proceedings/Proceedings - Conference on Software Maintenance","issn_l":"1063-6773","issn":["1063-6773","2576-3148"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319808","host_organization_name":"Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319808"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"2007 IEEE International Conference on Software Maintenance","raw_type":"proceedings-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.476.7788","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.476.7788","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"http://turingmachine.org/~dmg/papers/dmg2007_icsm_prediction.pdf","raw_type":"text"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.5299999713897705,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/17","display_name":"Partnerships for the goals"}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":39,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W21404338","https://openalex.org/W55277548","https://openalex.org/W139541242","https://openalex.org/W186548905","https://openalex.org/W1511816708","https://openalex.org/W1575961892","https://openalex.org/W1588879371","https://openalex.org/W1601456305","https://openalex.org/W1602464288","https://openalex.org/W1965110090","https://openalex.org/W2028882745","https://openalex.org/W2053833924","https://openalex.org/W2084175761","https://openalex.org/W2107294940","https://openalex.org/W2116693957","https://openalex.org/W2122944092","https://openalex.org/W2125478006","https://openalex.org/W2127459775","https://openalex.org/W2128780139","https://openalex.org/W2145560406","https://openalex.org/W2154698230","https://openalex.org/W2159682002","https://openalex.org/W2167873885","https://openalex.org/W2168874709","https://openalex.org/W2171816001","https://openalex.org/W2171818077","https://openalex.org/W2323575786","https://openalex.org/W2476528102","https://openalex.org/W2914482683","https://openalex.org/W4206199017","https://openalex.org/W4206457894","https://openalex.org/W4254891743","https://openalex.org/W4285719527","https://openalex.org/W4299512882","https://openalex.org/W6607398260","https://openalex.org/W6630637515","https://openalex.org/W6634546471","https://openalex.org/W6636075858","https://openalex.org/W6721103680"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2019608710","https://openalex.org/W2476117260","https://openalex.org/W3195113909","https://openalex.org/W1745726755","https://openalex.org/W2770531922","https://openalex.org/W1845068655","https://openalex.org/W4321354308","https://openalex.org/W3092441607","https://openalex.org/W3100681762","https://openalex.org/W2290299503"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Libre":[0],"(free":[1],"/":[2],"open":[3,57],"source)":[4],"software":[5,127],"development":[6],"is":[7,55,119],"a":[8,81,100],"complex":[9,29,43],"phenomenon.":[10],"Many":[11],"actors":[12],"(core":[13],"developers,":[14],"casual":[15],"contributors,":[16],"bug":[17],"reporters,":[18],"patch":[19],"submitters,":[20],"users,":[21],"etc.),":[22],"in":[23,28,67,88,95,159],"many":[24],"cases":[25,161],"volunteers,":[26],"interact":[27],"patterns":[30],"without":[31],"the":[32,76,114,123,126,137,141],"constrains":[33],"of":[34,125,140],"formal":[35],"hierarchical":[36],"structures":[37],"or":[38],"organizational":[39],"ties.":[40],"Understanding":[41],"this":[42,68,96,133,144,148],"behavior":[44],"with":[45,174],"enough":[46,171],"detail":[47],"to":[48,65,121,135,153,172],"build":[49],"explanatory":[50],"models":[51,73],"suitable":[52],"for":[53],"prediction":[54],"an":[56],"challenge,":[58],"and":[59,84,150,169],"few":[60],"results":[61],"have":[62,80,85,104],"been":[63,86],"published":[64],"date":[66],"area.":[69],"Therefore":[70],"statistical,":[71],"non-explanatory":[72],"(such":[74],"as":[75],"traditional":[77],"regression":[78,167],"model)":[79],"clear":[82],"role,":[83],"used":[87,120],"some":[89],"evolution":[90,139],"studies.":[91],"Our":[92],"proposal":[93],"goes":[94],"direction,":[97],"but":[98],"using":[99,132],"model":[101],"that":[102],"we":[103,146],"found":[105],"more":[106,164],"useful:":[107],"time":[108],"series":[109],"analysis.":[110],"Data":[111],"available":[112],"from":[113],"source":[115],"code":[116],"management":[117],"repository":[118],"compute":[122],"size":[124],"over":[128],"its":[129],"past":[130],"life,":[131],"information":[134],"estimate":[136,173],"future":[138,179],"project.":[142],"In":[143],"paper":[145],"present":[147],"methodology":[149],"apply":[151],"it":[152],"three":[154],"large":[155],"projects,":[156],"showing":[157],"how":[158],"these":[160],"predictions":[162],"are":[163],"accurate":[165],"than":[166],"models,":[168],"precise":[170],"little":[175],"error":[176],"their":[177],"near":[178],"evolutions.":[180]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2012,"cited_by_count":3}],"updated_date":"2026-04-05T17:49:38.594831","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}
