{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4415884152","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/icpm66919.2025.11220647","title":"What\u2019s Coming Next? Short-Term Simulation of Business Processes from Current State","display_name":"What\u2019s Coming Next? Short-Term Simulation of Business Processes from Current State","publication_year":2025,"publication_date":"2025-10-20","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4415884152","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/icpm66919.2025.11220647"},"language":null,"primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1109/icpm66919.2025.11220647","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/icpm66919.2025.11220647","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"2025 7th International Conference on Process Mining (ICPM)","raw_type":"proceedings-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5058074697","display_name":"Maksym Avramenko","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I56085075","display_name":"University of Tartu","ror":"https://ror.org/03z77qz90","country_code":"EE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I56085075"]}],"countries":["EE"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Maksym Avramenko","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Tartu"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Tartu","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I56085075"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5083543484","display_name":"David Chapela-Campa","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4711-9653"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I56085075","display_name":"University of Tartu","ror":"https://ror.org/03z77qz90","country_code":"EE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I56085075"]}],"countries":["EE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"David Chapela-Campa","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Tartu"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Tartu","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I56085075"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5085212075","display_name":"Marlon Dumas","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9247-7476"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I56085075","display_name":"University of Tartu","ror":"https://ror.org/03z77qz90","country_code":"EE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I56085075"]}],"countries":["EE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Marlon Dumas","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Tartu"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Tartu","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I56085075"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5038886027","display_name":"Fredrik Milani","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1322-915X"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I56085075","display_name":"University of Tartu","ror":"https://ror.org/03z77qz90","country_code":"EE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I56085075"]}],"countries":["EE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Fredrik Milani","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Tartu"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Tartu","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I56085075"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":4,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5058074697"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I56085075"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":1.7485,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":1,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.89692153,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":95,"max":98},"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":"1","last_page":"8"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10703","display_name":"Business Process Modeling and Analysis","score":0.6294000148773193,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1404","display_name":"Management Information Systems"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/14","display_name":"Business, Management and Accounting"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10703","display_name":"Business Process Modeling and Analysis","score":0.6294000148773193,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1404","display_name":"Management Information Systems"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/14","display_name":"Business, Management and Accounting"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11195","display_name":"Simulation Techniques and Applications","score":0.15080000460147858,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12127","display_name":"Software System Performance and Reliability","score":0.0722000002861023,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1705","display_name":"Computer Networks and Communications"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/process","display_name":"Process (computing)","score":0.5918999910354614},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/current","display_name":"Current (fluid)","score":0.5788000226020813},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/business-process","display_name":"Business process","score":0.531499981880188},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/event","display_name":"Event (particle physics)","score":0.5313000082969666},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/operationalization","display_name":"Operationalization","score":0.5135999917984009},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/state","display_name":"State (computer science)","score":0.49779999256134033},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/discrete-event-simulation","display_name":"Discrete event simulation","score":0.4805999994277954},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/field","display_name":"Field (mathematics)","score":0.47519999742507935}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.6924999952316284},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C98045186","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q205663","display_name":"Process (computing)","level":2,"score":0.5918999910354614},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C148043351","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4456944","display_name":"Current (fluid)","level":2,"score":0.5788000226020813},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C85345410","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q851587","display_name":"Business process","level":3,"score":0.531499981880188},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779662365","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5416694","display_name":"Event (particle physics)","level":2,"score":0.5313000082969666},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C9354725","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q286017","display_name":"Operationalization","level":2,"score":0.5135999917984009},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C13736549","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4489420","display_name":"Industrial engineering","level":1,"score":0.508400022983551},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C48103436","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q599031","display_name":"State (computer science)","level":2,"score":0.49779999256134033},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C147203929","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q574814","display_name":"Discrete event simulation","level":2,"score":0.4805999994277954},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C9652623","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q190109","display_name":"Field (mathematics)","level":2,"score":0.47519999742507935},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776359362","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2145286","display_name":"Representation (politics)","level":3,"score":0.45669999718666077},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778476105","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q628539","display_name":"Workload","level":2,"score":0.43939998745918274},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C108215451","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7263963","display_name":"Simulation modeling","level":2,"score":0.4129999876022339},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C189575605","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q838129","display_name":"Process simulation","level":3,"score":0.40720000863075256},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C80309976","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7007379","display_name":"Business process management","level":4,"score":0.4032999873161316},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780009758","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6804172","display_name":"Measure (data warehouse)","level":2,"score":0.3928999900817871},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C207505557","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4374012","display_name":"Business process modeling","level":4,"score":0.3776000142097473},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C76956256","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q27610560","display_name":"Process modeling","level":3,"score":0.37529999017715454},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C28719098","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q44946","display_name":"Point (geometry)","level":2,"score":0.3723999857902527},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162754035","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q17006331","display_name":"Artifact-centric business process model","level":5,"score":0.33000001311302185},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C42475967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q194292","display_name":"Operations research","level":1,"score":0.3160000145435333},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C44154836","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q45045","display_name":"Simulation","level":1,"score":0.2888999879360199},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C183560197","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7247302","display_name":"Process state","level":3,"score":0.25380000472068787}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1109/icpm66919.2025.11220647","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/icpm66919.2025.11220647","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"2025 7th International Conference on Process Mining (ICPM)","raw_type":"proceedings-article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":20,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1846981065","https://openalex.org/W1991927904","https://openalex.org/W2093514696","https://openalex.org/W2098250644","https://openalex.org/W2102077607","https://openalex.org/W2139616532","https://openalex.org/W2145835585","https://openalex.org/W2166351206","https://openalex.org/W2538496467","https://openalex.org/W2792011714","https://openalex.org/W2912763210","https://openalex.org/W4321608772","https://openalex.org/W4386321190","https://openalex.org/W4387453363","https://openalex.org/W4391113024","https://openalex.org/W4401806947","https://openalex.org/W4403271309","https://openalex.org/W4408125716","https://openalex.org/W4409454650","https://openalex.org/W4411261514"],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Business":[0],"process":[1,9,38,188],"simulation":[2,86,131,159,168,199,205,212],"is":[3,43,49,81,94,163,201],"an":[4,27,125,141,192],"approach":[5,76,107,127,200,234],"to":[6,12,32,50,59,77,82,88,96],"evaluate":[7],"business":[8],"changes":[10],"prior":[11],"implementation.":[13],"Existing":[14],"methods":[15],"in":[16,72,119,152,203,248],"this":[17,79,106,154,233],"field":[18],"primarily":[19],"support":[20],"tactical":[21],"decision-making,":[22,45],"where":[23,46,91],"simulations":[24,243],"start":[25,171],"from":[26,132,140,172,191],"empty":[28],"state":[29,113,138,175,185],"and":[30,58,70,101,117,178,214,220],"aim":[31],"estimate":[33],"the":[34,47,61,92,97,111,120,130,136,173,183,249],"long-term":[35,85,242],"effects":[36],"of":[37,63,114,135,144,176,186,217,251],"changes.":[39],"A":[40],"complementary":[41],"usecase":[42,80],"operational":[44],"goal":[48],"forecast":[51],"short-term":[52,198,238],"performance":[53,103,239,256],"based":[54],"on":[55],"ongoing":[56,115,145,218],"cases":[57,116,177,222],"analyze":[60],"impact":[62],"temporary":[64],"disruptions,":[65],"such":[66],"as":[67,209],"demand":[68],"spikes":[69],"shortfalls":[71],"available":[73],"resources.":[74],"An":[75,228],"tackle":[78],"run":[83,169],"a":[84,89,133,158,167,187,204,211,215,224],"up":[87],"point":[90],"workload":[93],"similar":[95],"current":[98,112,137,174,184],"one":[99],"(warm-up),":[100],"measure":[102],"thereon.":[104],"However,":[105],"does":[108],"not":[109],"consider":[110],"resources":[118],"process.":[121],"This":[122],"paper":[123,148],"studies":[124],"alternative":[126],"that":[128,166,207,232],"initializes":[129],"representation":[134],"derived":[139,190],"event":[142,193],"log":[143,216],"cases.":[146],"The":[147,196],"addresses":[149],"two":[150],"challenges":[151],"operationalizing":[153],"approach:":[155],"(1)":[156],"Given":[157],"model,":[160],"what":[161],"information":[162],"needed":[164],"so":[165],"can":[170,182],"resources?":[179],"(2)":[180],"How":[181],"be":[189],"$\\log$":[194],"?":[195],"resulting":[197],"embodied":[202],"engine":[206],"takes":[208],"input":[210],"model":[213],"cases,":[219],"simulates":[221],"for":[223],"given":[225],"time":[226],"horizon.":[227],"experimental":[229],"evaluation":[230],"shows":[231],"yields":[235],"more":[236],"accurate":[237],"forecasts":[240],"than":[241],"with":[244],"warm-up":[245],"period,":[246],"particularly":[247],"presence":[250],"concept":[252],"drift":[253],"or":[254],"bursty":[255],"patterns.":[257]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-05-27T09:02:27.158192","created_date":"2025-11-04T00:00:00"}