{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4403919100","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ic3ina64086.2024.10732320","title":"Prediction of HIV Cases in Indonesia Using Statistical Models","display_name":"Prediction of HIV Cases in Indonesia Using Statistical Models","publication_year":2024,"publication_date":"2024-10-09","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4403919100","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ic3ina64086.2024.10732320"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1109/ic3ina64086.2024.10732320","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ic3ina64086.2024.10732320","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"2024 International Conference on Computer, Control, Informatics and its Applications (IC3INA)","raw_type":"proceedings-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":null,"display_name":"Muhammad Naufal Nafian Abror","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210112051","display_name":"Indonesia Defense University","ror":"https://ror.org/02v4mmk55","country_code":"ID","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210112051"]}],"countries":["ID"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Muhammad Naufal Nafian Abror","raw_affiliation_strings":["Indonesia Defence University,Department of Mathematics,Bogor,Indonesia"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Indonesia Defence University,Department of Mathematics,Bogor,Indonesia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210112051"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5114467230","display_name":"Diana Dewi Risanti","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4387154144","display_name":"National Research and Innovation Agency","ror":"https://ror.org/02hmjzt55","country_code":"ID","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4387154144"]}],"countries":["ID"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Diana Dewi Risanti","raw_affiliation_strings":["National Research and Innovation Agency,Research Centre for Data and Information Science,Bandung,Indonesia"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"National Research and Innovation Agency,Research Centre for Data and Information Science,Bandung,Indonesia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4387154144"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5031282837","display_name":"Purnomo Husnul Khotimah","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9916-6323"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4387154144","display_name":"National Research and Innovation Agency","ror":"https://ror.org/02hmjzt55","country_code":"ID","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4387154144"]}],"countries":["ID"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Purnomo Husnul Khotimah","raw_affiliation_strings":["National Research and Innovation Agency,Research Centre for Data and Information Science,Bandung,Indonesia"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"National Research and Innovation Agency,Research Centre for Data and Information Science,Bandung,Indonesia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4387154144"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5114467231","display_name":"Rifani Bhakti Natarii","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4387154144","display_name":"National Research and Innovation Agency","ror":"https://ror.org/02hmjzt55","country_code":"ID","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4387154144"]}],"countries":["ID"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Rifani Bhakti Natarii","raw_affiliation_strings":["National Research and Innovation Agency,Research Centre for Data and Information Science,Bandung,Indonesia"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"National Research and Innovation Agency,Research Centre for Data and Information Science,Bandung,Indonesia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4387154144"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5114467232","display_name":"Muhammad Hafizh Izzzaturrahim","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4387154144","display_name":"National Research and Innovation Agency","ror":"https://ror.org/02hmjzt55","country_code":"ID","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4387154144"]}],"countries":["ID"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Muhammad Hafizh Izzzaturrahim","raw_affiliation_strings":["National Research and Innovation Agency,Research Centre for Data and Information Science,Bandung,Indonesia"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"National Research and Innovation Agency,Research Centre for Data and Information Science,Bandung,Indonesia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4387154144"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5037118926","display_name":"Irfan Asfy Fakhry Anto","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4387154144","display_name":"National Research and Innovation Agency","ror":"https://ror.org/02hmjzt55","country_code":"ID","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4387154144"]}],"countries":["ID"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Irfan Asfy Fakhry Anto","raw_affiliation_strings":["National Research and Innovation Agency,Research Centre for Data and Information Science,Bandung,Indonesia"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"National Research and Innovation Agency,Research Centre for Data and Information Science,Bandung,Indonesia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4387154144"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5025203325","display_name":"Muhammad Syazali","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4191-344X"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4387154144","display_name":"National Research and Innovation Agency","ror":"https://ror.org/02hmjzt55","country_code":"ID","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4387154144"]}],"countries":["ID"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Muhammad Syazali","raw_affiliation_strings":["National Research and Innovation Agency,Research Centre for Data and Information Science,Bandung,Indonesia"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"National Research and Innovation Agency,Research Centre for Data and Information Science,Bandung,Indonesia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4387154144"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":7,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210112051"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.28731103,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":"225","last_page":"230"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11860","display_name":"HIV, Drug Use, Sexual Risk","score":0.7868000268936157,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2713","display_name":"Epidemiology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11860","display_name":"HIV, Drug Use, Sexual Risk","score":0.7868000268936157,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2713","display_name":"Epidemiology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11819","display_name":"Data-Driven Disease Surveillance","score":0.761900007724762,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2713","display_name":"Epidemiology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13546","display_name":"Census and Population Estimation","score":0.7617999911308289,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2613","display_name":"Statistics and Probability"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.5544044971466064},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/human-immunodeficiency-virus","display_name":"Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)","score":0.43381935358047485},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/artificial-intelligence","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","score":0.3845701515674591},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/statistics","display_name":"Statistics","score":0.34836041927337646},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.17796942591667175},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/medicine","display_name":"Medicine","score":0.08169326186180115},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/virology","display_name":"Virology","score":0.07459479570388794}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.5544044971466064},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3013748606","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q15787","display_name":"Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)","level":2,"score":0.43381935358047485},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.3845701515674591},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.34836041927337646},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.17796942591667175},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.08169326186180115},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159047783","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7215","display_name":"Virology","level":1,"score":0.07459479570388794}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1109/ic3ina64086.2024.10732320","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ic3ina64086.2024.10732320","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"2024 International Conference on Computer, Control, Informatics and its Applications (IC3INA)","raw_type":"proceedings-article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320307804","display_name":"BP","ror":"https://ror.org/051659894"}],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":24,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W2136193836","https://openalex.org/W3023932367","https://openalex.org/W4210455643","https://openalex.org/W4288700733","https://openalex.org/W4310470874","https://openalex.org/W4313031675","https://openalex.org/W4323846333","https://openalex.org/W4361017471","https://openalex.org/W4379191777","https://openalex.org/W4382139128","https://openalex.org/W4390109657","https://openalex.org/W4390509207","https://openalex.org/W4390727017","https://openalex.org/W4391104879","https://openalex.org/W4391667307","https://openalex.org/W4391705458","https://openalex.org/W4392096702","https://openalex.org/W4392240076","https://openalex.org/W4393196725","https://openalex.org/W4394907679","https://openalex.org/W4396670885","https://openalex.org/W4396851214","https://openalex.org/W4396906942","https://openalex.org/W4398249369"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W4391375266","https://openalex.org/W2899084033","https://openalex.org/W2748952813","https://openalex.org/W2390279801","https://openalex.org/W4391913857","https://openalex.org/W2358668433","https://openalex.org/W4396701345","https://openalex.org/W2376932109","https://openalex.org/W2001405890","https://openalex.org/W4396696052"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"The":[0,41,59,84,128,144,166,205,268],"study":[1,269],"was":[2,105,130,173],"conducted":[3],"to":[4,75,112,291],"identify":[5],"the":[6,12,25,54,57,71,80,89,92,96,103,107,114,122,133,170,194,200,216,220,229,236,257,272,292],"most":[7,195,222],"effective":[8,295],"model":[9,116,135,172,197],"for":[10,52,79,117,198,249,283],"predicting":[11,199],"spread":[13,55],"of":[14,43,56,91,179,184,190,202,207,231,239,259,274,281,294],"Human":[15],"Immunodeficiency":[16],"Virus":[17],"(HIV)":[18],"cases":[19,46,78,225,254],"using":[20,95,150],"statistical":[21,262],"models":[22,109,146,263],"such":[23],"as":[24,48,132,161,163],"Error":[26,154,159],"Trend":[27],"Seasonal":[28],"(ETS)":[29],"model,":[30],"Exponential":[31],"Growth":[32],"Model":[33],"(EGM),":[34],"and":[35,136,141,156,186,255,299],"Autoregressive":[36],"Integrated":[37],"Moving":[38],"Average":[39],"(ARIMA).":[40],"prediction":[42],"total":[44],"HIV":[45,77,203,224],"serves":[47],"a":[49,245],"crucial":[50],"benchmark":[51],"assessing":[53],"disease.":[58],"research":[60,242],"utilized":[61],"data":[62,94,104],"from":[63],"Indonesia\u2019s":[64],"social":[65],"health":[66,266,276,297],"insurance":[67,277],"program,":[68],"BPJS,":[69,282],"covering":[70],"last":[72],"eight":[73],"years":[74,219],"project":[76],"next":[81,217],"five":[82,218],"years.":[83],"initial":[85],"analysis":[86],"involved":[87],"confirming":[88],"stationarity":[90],"BPJS":[93],"Augmented":[97],"Dickey-Fuller":[98],"test.":[99],"Upon":[100],"establishing":[101],"that":[102,169,214,280],"stationary,":[106],"ARIMA":[108,171],"were":[110,147],"selected":[111],"find":[113],"best":[115,134,145],"further":[118],"evaluation":[119],"based":[120],"on":[121],"Corrected":[123],"Akaike":[124],"Information":[125],"Criterion":[126],"(AICc).":[127],"ARIMA(1,0,1)":[129],"determined":[131],"then":[137],"compared":[138],"with":[139],"ETS":[140],"EGM":[142],"models.":[143],"subsequently":[148],"assessed":[149],"Root":[151],"Mean":[152,157],"Square":[153],"(RMSE)":[155],"Absolute":[158],"(MAE),":[160],"well":[162],"AICc":[164,188],"criteria.":[165],"findings":[167],"revealed":[168],"superior,":[174],"achieving":[175],"an":[176,181,187],"RMSE":[177],"score":[178,183,189],"0.506,":[180],"MAE":[182],"0.324,":[185],"-12.238,":[191],"making":[192],"it":[193,210],"accurate":[196],"number":[201,221],"cases.":[204],"results":[206],"this":[208],"research,":[209],"can":[211,288],"be":[212,227],"seen":[213],"in":[215,228,264],"serious":[223],"will":[226],"province":[230],"East":[232],"Java,":[233],"followed":[234],"by":[235],"eastern":[237],"region":[238],"Indonesia.":[240],"This":[241],"also":[243,270],"provides":[244],"robust":[246],"scientific":[247],"foundation":[248],"estimating":[250],"future":[251],"infectious":[252],"disease":[253,285],"underscores":[256],"importance":[258],"employing":[260],"advanced":[261],"public":[265,296],"planning.":[267],"highlights":[271],"value":[273],"leveraging":[275],"data,":[278],"like":[279],"long-term":[284],"forecasting,":[286],"which":[287],"significantly":[289],"contribute":[290],"development":[293],"policies":[298],"interventions.":[300]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-04-23T09:07:50.710637","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}
