{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2108427494","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/cogsima.2012.6188402","title":"Scenario reliability assessment to support decision makers in situations of severe uncertainty","display_name":"Scenario reliability assessment to support decision makers in situations of severe uncertainty","publication_year":2012,"publication_date":"2012-03-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2108427494","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/cogsima.2012.6188402","mag":"2108427494"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1109/cogsima.2012.6188402","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/cogsima.2012.6188402","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"2012 IEEE International Multi-Disciplinary Conference on Cognitive Methods in Situation Awareness and Decision Support","raw_type":"proceedings-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5061912935","display_name":"Tina Comes","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8721-8314"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I102335020","display_name":"Karlsruhe Institute of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/04t3en479","country_code":"DE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I102335020","https://openalex.org/I1305996414"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Tina Comes","raw_affiliation_strings":["Institute for Industrial Production (IIP), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany","[Institute for Industrial Production (IIP), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany]"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Institute for Industrial Production (IIP), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I102335020"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"[Institute for Industrial Production (IIP), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany]","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I102335020"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5042914845","display_name":"N.J.E. Wijngaards","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9370-870X"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I2800808753","display_name":"Thales (Netherlands)","ror":"https://ror.org/032tp7158","country_code":"NL","type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2800808753","https://openalex.org/I4210140930"]}],"countries":["NL"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Niek Wijngaards","raw_affiliation_strings":["Thales Research & Technology Netherlands/D-CIS Lab, Delft, The Netherlands","Thales Research & Technology Netherlands / D-CIS Lab Delft, The Netherlands"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Thales Research & Technology Netherlands/D-CIS Lab, Delft, The Netherlands","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I2800808753"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Thales Research & Technology Netherlands / D-CIS Lab Delft, The Netherlands","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I2800808753"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5049417438","display_name":"John Maule","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0627-4139"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I130828816","display_name":"University of Leeds","ror":"https://ror.org/024mrxd33","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I130828816"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"John Maule","raw_affiliation_strings":["Leeds University Business School, Leeds, UK"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Leeds University Business School, Leeds, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I130828816"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5021010763","display_name":"David L. Allen","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3733-8091"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I130828816","display_name":"University of Leeds","ror":"https://ror.org/024mrxd33","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I130828816"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"David Allen","raw_affiliation_strings":["Leeds University Business School, Leeds, UK"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Leeds University Business School, Leeds, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I130828816"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5051993448","display_name":"Frank Schultmann","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6405-9763"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I102335020","display_name":"Karlsruhe Institute of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/04t3en479","country_code":"DE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I102335020","https://openalex.org/I1305996414"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Frank Schultmann","raw_affiliation_strings":["Institute for Industrial Production (IIP), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany","[Institute for Industrial Production (IIP), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany]"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Institute for Industrial Production (IIP), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I102335020"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"[Institute for Industrial Production (IIP), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany]","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I102335020"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":3,"institutions_distinct_count":5,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5061912935"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I102335020"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":2.4636,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":12,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.90534365,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":98},"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":"30","last_page":"37"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11357","display_name":"Risk and Safety Analysis","score":0.998199999332428,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1804","display_name":"Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11357","display_name":"Risk and Safety Analysis","score":0.998199999332428,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1804","display_name":"Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11303","display_name":"Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference","score":0.991599977016449,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11807","display_name":"Infrastructure Resilience and Vulnerability Analysis","score":0.9873999953269958,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2205","display_name":"Civil and Structural Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/flexibility","display_name":"Flexibility (engineering)","score":0.7484942674636841},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/reliability","display_name":"Reliability (semiconductor)","score":0.6980195641517639},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.688452422618866},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/context","display_name":"Context (archaeology)","score":0.618685245513916},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/decision-support-system","display_name":"Decision support system","score":0.6026408672332764},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/risk-analysis","display_name":"Risk analysis (engineering)","score":0.5766947269439697},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/evidential-reasoning-approach","display_name":"Evidential reasoning approach","score":0.49051111936569214},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/decision-analysis","display_name":"Decision analysis","score":0.4873562753200531},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/human-reliability","display_name":"Human reliability","score":0.4719861149787903},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/value-of-information","display_name":"Value of information","score":0.44425255060195923},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/operations-research","display_name":"Operations research","score":0.35475653409957886},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/management-science","display_name":"Management science","score":0.3246425986289978},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/business-decision-mapping","display_name":"Business decision mapping","score":0.28469914197921753},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/data-mining","display_name":"Data mining","score":0.25694361329078674},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/human-error","display_name":"Human error","score":0.23664093017578125},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/artificial-intelligence","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","score":0.19308510422706604},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/engineering","display_name":"Engineering","score":0.13326027989387512},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.08649638295173645}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780598303","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q65921492","display_name":"Flexibility (engineering)","level":2,"score":0.7484942674636841},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C43214815","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7310987","display_name":"Reliability (semiconductor)","level":3,"score":0.6980195641517639},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.688452422618866},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779343474","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3109175","display_name":"Context (archaeology)","level":2,"score":0.618685245513916},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107327155","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q330268","display_name":"Decision support system","level":2,"score":0.6026408672332764},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C112930515","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4389547","display_name":"Risk analysis (engineering)","level":1,"score":0.5766947269439697},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C156201811","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5418360","display_name":"Evidential reasoning approach","level":4,"score":0.49051111936569214},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C186116695","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5249226","display_name":"Decision analysis","level":2,"score":0.4873562753200531},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C191147762","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q186289","display_name":"Human reliability","level":3,"score":0.4719861149787903},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C92424840","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7912772","display_name":"Value of information","level":2,"score":0.44425255060195923},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C42475967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q194292","display_name":"Operations research","level":1,"score":0.35475653409957886},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C539667460","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2414942","display_name":"Management science","level":1,"score":0.3246425986289978},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C97944126","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5001864","display_name":"Business decision mapping","level":3,"score":0.28469914197921753},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C124101348","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q172491","display_name":"Data mining","level":1,"score":0.25694361329078674},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C169806903","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5937752","display_name":"Human error","level":2,"score":0.23664093017578125},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.19308510422706604},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127413603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11023","display_name":"Engineering","level":0,"score":0.13326027989387512},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.08649638295173645},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C62520636","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q944","display_name":"Quantum mechanics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86803240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q420","display_name":"Biology","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151730666","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7205","display_name":"Paleontology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C163258240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25342","display_name":"Power (physics)","level":2,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1109/cogsima.2012.6188402","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/cogsima.2012.6188402","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"2012 IEEE International Multi-Disciplinary Conference on Cognitive Methods in Situation Awareness and Decision Support","raw_type":"proceedings-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:digital.library.adelaide.edu.au:2440/94499","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/2440/94499","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401835","display_name":"Adelaide Research & Scholarship (AR&S) (University of Adelaide)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I5681781","host_organization_name":"The University of Adelaide","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I5681781"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/cogsima.2012.6188402","raw_type":"Conference paper"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/16","display_name":"Peace, Justice and strong institutions","score":0.7900000214576721}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":36,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W59413458","https://openalex.org/W1525053554","https://openalex.org/W1528839774","https://openalex.org/W1530041619","https://openalex.org/W1654727411","https://openalex.org/W1843246605","https://openalex.org/W1945114654","https://openalex.org/W1970605623","https://openalex.org/W1972204606","https://openalex.org/W1985919964","https://openalex.org/W1986808060","https://openalex.org/W1997594618","https://openalex.org/W1999985502","https://openalex.org/W2009782044","https://openalex.org/W2013924799","https://openalex.org/W2022128579","https://openalex.org/W2029057170","https://openalex.org/W2034470756","https://openalex.org/W2054575392","https://openalex.org/W2057862715","https://openalex.org/W2061535067","https://openalex.org/W2062345407","https://openalex.org/W2066470190","https://openalex.org/W2105963649","https://openalex.org/W2124371667","https://openalex.org/W2154728303","https://openalex.org/W2159535402","https://openalex.org/W2162864977","https://openalex.org/W2163957896","https://openalex.org/W2172016034","https://openalex.org/W2242842357","https://openalex.org/W2336440943","https://openalex.org/W2556080173","https://openalex.org/W3143378422","https://openalex.org/W4250234837","https://openalex.org/W6703519366"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W787402332","https://openalex.org/W2160749149","https://openalex.org/W2899325887","https://openalex.org/W646492873","https://openalex.org/W1581101130","https://openalex.org/W1485742592","https://openalex.org/W4242788481","https://openalex.org/W2157850552","https://openalex.org/W4245171431","https://openalex.org/W2083299936"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Decision":[0],"making":[1,25],"under":[2],"uncertainty":[3,63],"is":[4,58,91,140],"fraught":[5],"with":[6,19,65],"pitfalls":[7],"for":[8],"human":[9],"thinking:":[10],"biases":[11],"prevail.":[12],"The":[13],"combination":[14],"of":[15,75,116],"a":[16,37,79],"scenario-based":[17],"approach":[18,112,139],"multi-criteria":[20],"decision":[21,99,104],"analysis":[22],"assists":[23],"in":[24,36,47],"value":[26],"judgements,":[27],"trade-offs":[28],"and":[29,53,107,130],"uncertainties":[30],"explicit.":[31],"Scenarios,":[32],"which":[33,83],"are":[34],"constructed":[35],"distributed":[38,118],"manner":[39],"involving":[40],"multiple":[41],"experts":[42,123],"from":[43,85],"different":[44],"domains,":[45],"assist":[46],"overcoming":[48],"e.g.":[49],"the":[50,62,94,98,103,108,114,117,122,126,131,136],"prominence":[51],"effect":[52],"confirmation":[54],"bias.":[55],"Furthermore,":[56],"support":[57],"provided":[59],"to":[60,93,124,135],"handle":[61],"associated":[64],"each":[66,73],"scenario":[67],"without":[68],"imposing":[69],"unjustified":[70],"assumptions":[71],"on":[72],"piece":[74],"information.":[76,110],"We":[77],"develop":[78],"relative":[80],"reliability":[81],"concept,":[82],"differs":[84],"standard":[86],"probability":[87],"assessments":[88,133],"as":[89,97],"it":[90],"sensitive":[92],"context,":[95],"such":[96],"problem":[100],"at":[101],"hand,":[102],"makers'":[105],"requirements":[106],"available":[109],"This":[111],"maintains":[113],"flexibility":[115],"system":[119],"by":[120,142],"allowing":[121],"adapt":[125],"information":[127],"they":[128],"provide":[129],"likelihood":[132],"thereof":[134],"situation.":[137],"Our":[138],"illustrated":[141],"an":[143],"emergency":[144],"management":[145],"example.":[146]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2012,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2025-11-06T03:46:38.306776","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}
