{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7124171596","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/codit66093.2025.11321867","title":"Failure Probability Estimation for Black-Box Autonomous Systems using State-Dependent Importance Sampling Proposals","display_name":"Failure Probability Estimation for Black-Box Autonomous Systems using State-Dependent Importance Sampling Proposals","publication_year":2025,"publication_date":"2025-07-15","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7124171596","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/codit66093.2025.11321867"},"language":null,"primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1109/codit66093.2025.11321867","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/codit66093.2025.11321867","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"2025 11th International Conference on Control, Decision and Information Technologies (CoDIT)","raw_type":"proceedings-article"},"type":"conference-paper","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5123046244","display_name":"Harrison Delecki","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I97018004","display_name":"Stanford University","ror":"https://ror.org/00f54p054","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I97018004"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Harrison Delecki","raw_affiliation_strings":["Stanford University,Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Stanford University,Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I97018004"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5052884317","display_name":"Sydney M. Katz","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8376-5145"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I97018004","display_name":"Stanford University","ror":"https://ror.org/00f54p054","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I97018004"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Sydney M. Katz","raw_affiliation_strings":["Stanford University,Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Stanford University,Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I97018004"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5068326377","display_name":"Mykel J. Kochenderfer","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7238-9663"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I97018004","display_name":"Stanford University","ror":"https://ror.org/00f54p054","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I97018004"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Mykel J. Kochenderfer","raw_affiliation_strings":["Stanford University,Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Stanford University,Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I97018004"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I97018004"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":"1","last_page":"7"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12423","display_name":"Software Reliability and Analysis Research","score":0.2676999866962433,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1712","display_name":"Software"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12423","display_name":"Software Reliability and Analysis Research","score":0.2676999866962433,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1712","display_name":"Software"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10772","display_name":"Distributed systems and fault tolerance","score":0.1298999935388565,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1705","display_name":"Computer Networks and Communications"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10933","display_name":"Real-Time Systems Scheduling","score":0.06800000369548798,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1708","display_name":"Hardware and Architecture"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/importance-sampling","display_name":"Importance sampling","score":0.6891999840736389},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/markov-chain-monte-carlo","display_name":"Markov chain Monte Carlo","score":0.6543999910354614},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/sampling","display_name":"Sampling (signal processing)","score":0.6144999861717224},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/monte-carlo-method","display_name":"Monte Carlo method","score":0.5623000264167786},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/adaptive-sampling","display_name":"Adaptive sampling","score":0.5044000148773193},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/rejection-sampling","display_name":"Rejection sampling","score":0.4722000062465668},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probability-distribution","display_name":"Probability distribution","score":0.46050000190734863},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/markov-process","display_name":"Markov process","score":0.4381999969482422},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/slice-sampling","display_name":"Slice sampling","score":0.4277999997138977}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C52740198","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1539564","display_name":"Importance sampling","level":3,"score":0.6891999840736389},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111350023","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1191869","display_name":"Markov chain Monte Carlo","level":3,"score":0.6543999910354614},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C140779682","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q210868","display_name":"Sampling (signal processing)","level":3,"score":0.6144999861717224},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.600600004196167},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C19499675","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q232207","display_name":"Monte Carlo method","level":2,"score":0.5623000264167786},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781395549","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4680762","display_name":"Adaptive sampling","level":3,"score":0.5044000148773193},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C187192777","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q381699","display_name":"Rejection sampling","level":5,"score":0.4722000062465668},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149441793","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q200726","display_name":"Probability distribution","level":2,"score":0.46050000190734863},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159886148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q176645","display_name":"Markov process","level":2,"score":0.4381999969482422},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C170593435","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4128565","display_name":"Slice sampling","level":4,"score":0.4277999997138977},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126255220","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q141495","display_name":"Mathematical optimization","level":1,"score":0.4187000095844269},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778755073","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q10858537","display_name":"Scale (ratio)","level":2,"score":0.38019999861717224},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C207390915","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1230525","display_name":"Divergence (linguistics)","level":2,"score":0.376800000667572},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C98763669","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q176645","display_name":"Markov chain","level":2,"score":0.3546999990940094},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C204693719","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q910810","display_name":"Metropolis\u2013Hastings algorithm","level":4,"score":0.33379998803138733},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777317252","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q18393516","display_name":"Rare events","level":2,"score":0.326200008392334},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C43214815","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7310987","display_name":"Reliability (semiconductor)","level":3,"score":0.32409998774528503},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C198531522","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q485146","display_name":"Sample (material)","level":2,"score":0.3156999945640564},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C11413529","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8366","display_name":"Algorithm","level":1,"score":0.3125},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C75373757","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7410160","display_name":"Sampling design","level":3,"score":0.29840001463890076},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107673813","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812534","display_name":"Bayesian probability","level":2,"score":0.2962000072002411},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C124101348","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q172491","display_name":"Data mining","level":1,"score":0.2906000018119812},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C167723999","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3773214","display_name":"Sampling distribution","level":2,"score":0.27489998936653137},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.2727000117301941},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C96250715","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q965330","display_name":"Estimation","level":2,"score":0.26759999990463257},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86426650","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7452504","display_name":"Sequential estimation","level":2,"score":0.2671000063419342},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C52421305","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1151499","display_name":"Particle filter","level":3,"score":0.2635999917984009},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.2615000009536743},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C48103436","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q599031","display_name":"State (computer science)","level":2,"score":0.26100000739097595},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2993010571","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q49908","display_name":"Probability sampling","level":3,"score":0.25940001010894775}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1109/codit66093.2025.11321867","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/codit66093.2025.11321867","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"2025 11th International Conference on Control, Decision and Information Technologies (CoDIT)","raw_type":"proceedings-article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/16","score":0.4147129952907562,"display_name":"Peace, Justice and strong institutions"}],"awards":[],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306076","display_name":"National Science Foundation","ror":"https://ror.org/021nxhr62"}],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":21,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1540527391","https://openalex.org/W1965455100","https://openalex.org/W1979969656","https://openalex.org/W2037393162","https://openalex.org/W2063066676","https://openalex.org/W2106786771","https://openalex.org/W2138309709","https://openalex.org/W2735102987","https://openalex.org/W2759950027","https://openalex.org/W2798302610","https://openalex.org/W2897535010","https://openalex.org/W2898904083","https://openalex.org/W2912640545","https://openalex.org/W2921660103","https://openalex.org/W2990364579","https://openalex.org/W3021906763","https://openalex.org/W3047375952","https://openalex.org/W3112716182","https://openalex.org/W3206558114","https://openalex.org/W4248659657","https://openalex.org/W4253187718"],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Estimating":[0],"the":[1,27,66,80],"probability":[2,112],"of":[3,29,79],"failure":[4,111],"is":[5,125],"a":[6,71,76],"critical":[7],"step":[8],"in":[9,31],"developing":[10],"safety-critical":[11],"autonomous":[12],"systems.":[13,33],"Direct":[14],"estimation":[15],"methods":[16,91],"such":[17],"as":[18],"Monte":[19,116],"Carlo":[20,117],"sampling":[21,36,57,83,121],"are":[22],"often":[23],"impractical":[24],"due":[25],"to":[26,41,59,92],"rarity":[28],"failures":[30],"these":[32,61],"Existing":[34],"importance":[35,56,82,120],"approaches":[37],"do":[38],"not":[39],"scale":[40],"sequential":[42,102],"decision-making":[43],"systems":[44,103],"with":[45],"large":[46],"state":[47],"spaces":[48],"and":[49,75,104,118],"long":[50],"horizons.":[51],"We":[52,96],"propose":[53],"an":[54],"adaptive":[55,119],"algorithm":[58],"address":[60],"limitations.":[62],"Our":[63,85,123],"method":[64,86],"minimizes":[65],"forward":[67],"Kullback-Leibler":[68],"divergence":[69],"between":[70],"state-dependent":[72],"proposal":[73],"distribution":[74],"relaxed":[77],"form":[78],"optimal":[81],"distribution.":[84],"uses":[87],"Markov":[88],"score":[89],"ascent":[90],"estimate":[93],"this":[94],"objective.":[95],"evaluate":[97],"our":[98],"approach":[99],"on":[100],"four":[101],"show":[105],"that":[106],"it":[107],"provides":[108],"more":[109],"accurate":[110],"estimates":[113],"than":[114],"baseline":[115],"techniques.":[122],"implementation":[124],"available":[126],"at":[127],"https://github.com/sisl/SPAIS.jl.":[128]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-07-14T23:27:15.235271","created_date":"2026-01-15T00:00:00"}
