{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2590059945","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/cig.2016.7860431","title":"Predicting player churn in destiny: A Hidden Markov models approach to predicting player departure in a major online game","display_name":"Predicting player churn in destiny: A Hidden Markov models approach to predicting player departure in a major online game","publication_year":2016,"publication_date":"2016-09-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2590059945","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/cig.2016.7860431","mag":"2590059945"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1109/cig.2016.7860431","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/cig.2016.7860431","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"2016 IEEE Conference on Computational Intelligence and Games (CIG)","raw_type":"proceedings-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://figshare.com/articles/conference_contribution/Predicting_player_churn_in_destiny_A_Hidden_Markov_models_approach_to_predicting_player_departure_in_a_major_online_game/24030366","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5016550498","display_name":"Marco Tamassia","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6567-1380"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I82951845","display_name":"RMIT University","ror":"https://ror.org/04ttjf776","country_code":"AU","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I82951845"]}],"countries":["AU"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Marco Tamassia","raw_affiliation_strings":["School of Science, RMIT, Melbourne, Australia"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Science, RMIT, Melbourne, Australia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I82951845"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5075906421","display_name":"William Raffe","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5310-0943"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I82951845","display_name":"RMIT University","ror":"https://ror.org/04ttjf776","country_code":"AU","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I82951845"]}],"countries":["AU"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"William Raffe","raw_affiliation_strings":["School of Science, RMIT, Melbourne, Australia"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Science, RMIT, Melbourne, Australia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I82951845"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5064201630","display_name":"Rafet Sifa","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0004-6680-8210"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210144576","display_name":"Fraunhofer Institute for Intelligent Analysis and Information Systems","ror":"https://ror.org/04nc32781","country_code":"DE","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210144576","https://openalex.org/I4923324"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Rafet Sifa","raw_affiliation_strings":["Fraunhofer IAIS, Sankt Augustin, Germany"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Fraunhofer IAIS, Sankt Augustin, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210144576"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5041617107","display_name":"Anders Drachen","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1002-0414"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I891191580","display_name":"Aalborg University","ror":"https://ror.org/04m5j1k67","country_code":"DK","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I891191580"]}],"countries":["DK"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Anders Drachen","raw_affiliation_strings":["Aalborg University, The Pagonis Network, Copenhagen, Denmark","The Pagonis Network, Aalborg University, Copenhagen, Denmark"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Aalborg University, The Pagonis Network, Copenhagen, Denmark","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I891191580"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"The Pagonis Network, Aalborg University, Copenhagen, Denmark","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I891191580"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5061528333","display_name":"Fabio Zambetta","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4133-7913"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I82951845","display_name":"RMIT University","ror":"https://ror.org/04ttjf776","country_code":"AU","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I82951845"]}],"countries":["AU"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Fabio Zambetta","raw_affiliation_strings":["School of Science, RMIT, Melbourne, Australia"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Science, RMIT, Melbourne, Australia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I82951845"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5069661409","display_name":"Michael Hitchens","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6320-9184"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I99043593","display_name":"Macquarie University","ror":"https://ror.org/01sf06y89","country_code":"AU","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I99043593"]}],"countries":["AU"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Michael Hitchens","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Computing, Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Computing, Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I99043593"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":3,"institutions_distinct_count":6,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5016550498"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I82951845"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":10.2672,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":52,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.97689654,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":94,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"2016","issue":null,"first_page":"1","last_page":"8"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12384","display_name":"Customer churn and segmentation","score":0.998199999332428,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1406","display_name":"Marketing"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/14","display_name":"Business, Management and Accounting"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12384","display_name":"Customer churn and segmentation","score":0.998199999332428,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1406","display_name":"Marketing"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/14","display_name":"Business, Management and Accounting"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11674","display_name":"Sports Analytics and Performance","score":0.9965000152587891,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10538","display_name":"Data Mining Algorithms and Applications","score":0.9923999905586243,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1710","display_name":"Information Systems"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/destiny","display_name":"Destiny (ISS module)","score":0.9209038615226746},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.6848863363265991},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/hidden-markov-model","display_name":"Hidden Markov model","score":0.6040198802947998},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/markov-chain","display_name":"Markov chain","score":0.4213443994522095},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/markov-model","display_name":"Markov model","score":0.4197724461555481},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/artificial-intelligence","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","score":0.3761821389198303},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/machine-learning","display_name":"Machine learning","score":0.3155534565448761},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/engineering","display_name":"Engineering","score":0.1397903859615326}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C44761211","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q752841","display_name":"Destiny (ISS module)","level":2,"score":0.9209038615226746},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.6848863363265991},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C23224414","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q176769","display_name":"Hidden Markov model","level":2,"score":0.6040198802947998},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C98763669","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q176645","display_name":"Markov chain","level":2,"score":0.4213443994522095},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C163836022","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6771326","display_name":"Markov model","level":3,"score":0.4197724461555481},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.3761821389198303},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.3155534565448761},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127413603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11023","display_name":"Engineering","level":0,"score":0.1397903859615326},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C146978453","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3798668","display_name":"Aerospace engineering","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":10,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1109/cig.2016.7860431","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/cig.2016.7860431","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"2016 IEEE Conference on Computational Intelligence and Games (CIG)","raw_type":"proceedings-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:sdu.dk:openaire_cris_publications/6e923fe3-1f19-46d0-863b-4c34ef0adc49","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://portal.findresearcher.sdu.dk/da/publications/6e923fe3-1f19-46d0-863b-4c34ef0adc49","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400424","display_name":"University of Southern Denmark Research Portal (University of Southern Denmark)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I177969490","host_organization_name":"University of Southern Denmark","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I177969490"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Tamassia, M, Raffe, W, Sifa, R, Drachen, A, Zambetta, F & Hitchens, M 2017, Predicting player churn in destiny : A Hidden Markov models approach to predicting player departure in a major online game. in 2016 IEEE Conference on Computational Intelligence and Games, CIG 2016., 7860431, IEEE, 2016 IEEE Conference on Computational Intelligence and Games, CIG 2016, Santorini, Greece, 20/09/2016. https://doi.org/10.1109/CIG.2016.7860431","raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion"},{"id":"pmh:oai:alma.61RMIT_INST:11247610560001341","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://doi.org/10.1109/CIG.2016.7860431","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402074","display_name":"RMIT Research Repository (RMIT University Library)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I82951845","host_organization_name":"RMIT University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I82951845"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"text"},{"id":"pmh:oai:figshare.com:article/24030366","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://figshare.com/articles/conference_contribution/Predicting_player_churn_in_destiny_A_Hidden_Markov_models_approach_to_predicting_player_departure_in_a_major_online_game/24030366","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4377196282","display_name":"Figshare","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I4210132348","host_organization_name":"Figshare (United Kingdom)","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210132348"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"Text"},{"id":"pmh:oai:figshare.com:article/27400422","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":null,"pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4377196282","display_name":"Figshare","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I4210132348","host_organization_name":"Figshare (United Kingdom)","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210132348"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"Text"},{"id":"pmh:oai:fraunhofer.de:N-502683","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://publica.fraunhofer.de/documents/N-502683.html","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400801","display_name":"Publikationsdatenbank der Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft (Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I4923324","host_organization_name":"Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4923324"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Fraunhofer IAIS","raw_type":"Conference Paper"},{"id":"pmh:oai:opus.lib.uts.edu.au:10453/109894","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10453/109894","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401357","display_name":"UTS ePRESS (University of Technology Sydney)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I114017466","host_organization_name":"University of Technology Sydney","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I114017466"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"Conference Proceeding"},{"id":"pmh:oai:publica.fraunhofer.de:publica/402007","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://publica.fraunhofer.de/handle/publica/402007","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400318","display_name":"Fraunhofer-Publica (Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I4923324","host_organization_name":"Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4923324"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"conference paper"},{"id":"pmh:oai:pure.atira.dk:publications/0806129e-283e-44b2-be29-0e2ab2d5985f","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://vbn.aau.dk/da/publications/0806129e-283e-44b2-be29-0e2ab2d5985f","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401731","display_name":"VBN Forskningsportal (Aalborg Universitet)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I891191580","host_organization_name":"Aalborg University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I891191580"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Tamassia , M , Raffe , W , Sifa , R , Drachen , A , Zambetta , F & Hitchens , M 2017 , Predicting player churn in destiny : A Hidden Markov models approach to predicting player departure in a major online game . in 2016 IEEE Conference on Computational Intelligence and Games, CIG 2016 . , 7860431 , IEEE , 2016 IEEE Conference on Computational Intelligence and Games, CIG 2016 , Santorini , Greece , 20/09/2016 . https://doi.org/10.1109/CIG.2016.7860431","raw_type":"contributionToPeriodical"},{"id":"mag:2749137645","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://jglobal.jst.go.jp/en/detail?JGLOBAL_ID=201702240068547954","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306512817","display_name":"IEEE Conference Proceedings","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"conference"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":null,"raw_source_name":"IEEE Conference Proceedings","raw_type":null}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:figshare.com:article/24030366","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://figshare.com/articles/conference_contribution/Predicting_player_churn_in_destiny_A_Hidden_Markov_models_approach_to_predicting_player_departure_in_a_major_online_game/24030366","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4377196282","display_name":"Figshare","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I4210132348","host_organization_name":"Figshare (United Kingdom)","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210132348"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"Text"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.44999998807907104,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/9","display_name":"Industry, innovation and infrastructure"}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":23,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1918096142","https://openalex.org/W1989249972","https://openalex.org/W2003528492","https://openalex.org/W2022573990","https://openalex.org/W2027731766","https://openalex.org/W2042639038","https://openalex.org/W2052885930","https://openalex.org/W2067225096","https://openalex.org/W2073201362","https://openalex.org/W2087097402","https://openalex.org/W2115756117","https://openalex.org/W2121946324","https://openalex.org/W2142752589","https://openalex.org/W2202704248","https://openalex.org/W2204198178","https://openalex.org/W2341380968","https://openalex.org/W2475452894","https://openalex.org/W2576966046","https://openalex.org/W2589340383","https://openalex.org/W4299998071","https://openalex.org/W6687833805","https://openalex.org/W6704014106","https://openalex.org/W6732146799"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W1510894296","https://openalex.org/W2134386692","https://openalex.org/W2084326697","https://openalex.org/W2194396582","https://openalex.org/W2027903142","https://openalex.org/W2082284720","https://openalex.org/W2116722627","https://openalex.org/W2537260108","https://openalex.org/W2354322608","https://openalex.org/W2158700654"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Destiny":[0,50,81],"is,":[1],"to":[2,84,134],"date,":[3],"the":[4,28,34,38,47,85,89,103,113,121,141],"most":[5,41],"expensive":[6],"digital":[7],"game":[8,44,57,74,101],"ever":[9],"released":[10],"with":[11],"a":[12,19,52,55,72,110,136],"total":[13],"operating":[14],"budget":[15],"of":[16,27,31,54,67,69,88,100,112,115,126],"over":[17],"half":[18],"billion":[20],"US":[21],"dollars.":[22],"It":[23],"stands":[24],"as":[25],"one":[26],"main":[29],"examples":[30],"AAA":[32],"titles,":[33],"term":[35],"used":[36],"for":[37,97,140],"largest":[39],"and":[40,58,63,78,129],"heavily":[42],"marketed":[43],"productions":[45],"in":[46,80,102,118],"games":[48],"industry.":[49],"is":[51,82],"blend":[53],"shooter":[56],"massively":[59],"multi-player":[60],"online":[61],"game,":[62,90],"has":[64,93],"attracted":[65],"dozens":[66],"millions":[68],"players.":[70],"As":[71],"persistent":[73],"title,":[75],"predicting":[76,116],"retention":[77],"churn":[79,117,137],"crucial":[83],"running":[86],"operations":[87],"but":[91],"prediction":[92,138],"not":[94],"been":[95],"attempted":[96],"this":[98,106],"type":[99],"past.":[104],"In":[105],"paper,":[107],"we":[108],"present":[109],"discussion":[111],"challenge":[114],"Destiny,":[119],"evaluate":[120],"area":[122],"under":[123],"curve":[124],"(ROC)":[125],"behavioral":[127],"features,":[128],"use":[130],"Hidden":[131],"Markov":[132],"Models":[133],"develop":[135],"model":[139],"game.":[142]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":8},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":9},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":10},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":2}],"updated_date":"2026-04-04T16:13:02.066488","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}