{"id":"https://openalex.org/W3121361329","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/bibm49941.2020.9313525","title":"Cascade SEIRD: Forecasting the Spread of COVID-19 with Dynamic Parameters Update","display_name":"Cascade SEIRD: Forecasting the Spread of COVID-19 with Dynamic Parameters Update","publication_year":2020,"publication_date":"2020-12-16","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W3121361329","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/bibm49941.2020.9313525","mag":"3121361329"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1109/bibm49941.2020.9313525","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/bibm49941.2020.9313525","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"2020 IEEE International Conference on Bioinformatics and Biomedicine (BIBM)","raw_type":"proceedings-article"},"type":"conference-paper","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5055835186","display_name":"Yongliang Wen","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I204983213","display_name":"Harbin Institute of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/01yqg2h08","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I204983213"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Yongliang Wen","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Computer Science, Harbin Institute of Technology, Shenzhen, China"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Computer Science, Harbin Institute of Technology, Shenzhen, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I204983213"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5110965184","display_name":"Jiangnan Xu","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I204983213","display_name":"Harbin Institute of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/01yqg2h08","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I204983213"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Jiangnan Xu","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Computer Science, Harbin Institute of Technology, Shenzhen, China"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Computer Science, Harbin Institute of Technology, Shenzhen, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I204983213"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5002523892","display_name":"Yunming Ye","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1807-8581"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I204983213","display_name":"Harbin Institute of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/01yqg2h08","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I204983213"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Yunming Ye","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Computer Science, Harbin Institute of Technology, Shenzhen, China"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Computer Science, Harbin Institute of Technology, Shenzhen, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I204983213"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5108773314","display_name":"Xutao Li","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4848-609X"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I204983213","display_name":"Harbin Institute of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/01yqg2h08","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I204983213"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Xutao Li","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Computer Science, Harbin Institute of Technology, Shenzhen, China"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Computer Science, Harbin Institute of Technology, Shenzhen, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I204983213"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5075046622","display_name":"Chuyao Luo","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4848-609X"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I204983213","display_name":"Harbin Institute of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/01yqg2h08","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I204983213"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Chuyao Luo","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Computer Science, Harbin Institute of Technology, Shenzhen, China"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Computer Science, Harbin Institute of Technology, Shenzhen, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I204983213"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5030794291","display_name":"Tianlun Zhu","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I204983213","display_name":"Harbin Institute of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/01yqg2h08","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I204983213"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Tianlun Zhu","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Computer Science, Harbin Institute of Technology, Shenzhen, China"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Computer Science, Harbin Institute of Technology, Shenzhen, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I204983213"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I204983213"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":"2268","last_page":"2273"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":0.9998999834060669,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":0.9998999834060669,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11819","display_name":"Data-Driven Disease Surveillance","score":0.9854999780654907,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2713","display_name":"Epidemiology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11512","display_name":"Anomaly Detection Techniques and Applications","score":0.9832000136375427,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/leverage","display_name":"Leverage (statistics)","score":0.784713864326477},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/cascade","display_name":"Cascade","score":0.753806471824646},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/autoregressive-integrated-moving-average","display_name":"Autoregressive integrated moving average","score":0.736581563949585},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.6479113101959229},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/coronavirus-disease-2019","display_name":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)","score":0.6237562894821167},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/infection-rate","display_name":"Infection rate","score":0.530337929725647},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/epidemic-model","display_name":"Epidemic model","score":0.4355521500110626},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/artificial-intelligence","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","score":0.428516685962677},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/machine-learning","display_name":"Machine learning","score":0.37801435589790344},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/infectious-disease","display_name":"Infectious disease (medical specialty)","score":0.3604433238506317},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/time-series","display_name":"Time series","score":0.27886301279067993},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/population","display_name":"Population","score":0.11770448088645935},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/engineering","display_name":"Engineering","score":0.08605614304542542},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/disease","display_name":"Disease","score":0.07749098539352417}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C153083717","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6535263","display_name":"Leverage (statistics)","level":2,"score":0.784713864326477},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C34146451","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5048094","display_name":"Cascade","level":2,"score":0.753806471824646},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C24338571","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2566298","display_name":"Autoregressive integrated moving average","level":3,"score":0.736581563949585},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.6479113101959229},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3008058167","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q84263196","display_name":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)","level":4,"score":0.6237562894821167},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781254715","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q28454687","display_name":"Infection rate","level":2,"score":0.530337929725647},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C1627819","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2572354","display_name":"Epidemic model","level":3,"score":0.4355521500110626},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.428516685962677},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.37801435589790344},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C524204448","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q788926","display_name":"Infectious disease (medical specialty)","level":3,"score":0.3604433238506317},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151406439","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q186588","display_name":"Time series","level":2,"score":0.27886301279067993},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2908647359","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2625603","display_name":"Population","level":2,"score":0.11770448088645935},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127413603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11023","display_name":"Engineering","level":0,"score":0.08605614304542542},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779134260","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12136","display_name":"Disease","level":2,"score":0.07749098539352417},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C142724271","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7208","display_name":"Pathology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C141071460","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q40821","display_name":"Surgery","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144024400","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21201","display_name":"Sociology","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C42360764","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q83588","display_name":"Chemical engineering","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149923435","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q37732","display_name":"Demography","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1109/bibm49941.2020.9313525","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/bibm49941.2020.9313525","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"2020 IEEE International Conference on Bioinformatics and Biomedicine (BIBM)","raw_type":"proceedings-article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.8299999833106995,"display_name":"Good health and well-being","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3"}],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G1826597703","display_name":"\u5f02\u6784\u591a\u5c5e\u6027\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u591a\u89c6\u56fe\u805a\u7c7b\u5173\u952e\u6280\u672f\u7814\u7a76","funder_award_id":"61572158","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321001","funder_display_name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G4674381742","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"61602132","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321001","funder_display_name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G6465415734","display_name":"\u65f6\u5e8f\u591a\u5173\u7cfb\u5c5e\u6027\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u793e\u533a\u53d1\u73b0\u65b9\u6cd5\u7814\u7a76","funder_award_id":"61972111","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321001","funder_display_name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G6663997447","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"U1836107","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321001","funder_display_name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321001","display_name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","ror":"https://ror.org/01h0zpd94"}],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":14,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1603405108","https://openalex.org/W1808176545","https://openalex.org/W1986017546","https://openalex.org/W2049978891","https://openalex.org/W2989676862","https://openalex.org/W3009876049","https://openalex.org/W3012864042","https://openalex.org/W3013580552","https://openalex.org/W3014629662","https://openalex.org/W3030505854","https://openalex.org/W3031121908","https://openalex.org/W3036356470","https://openalex.org/W3115734648","https://openalex.org/W3148140980"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2153719181","https://openalex.org/W3135881084","https://openalex.org/W1971748923","https://openalex.org/W2380590035","https://openalex.org/W1566155057","https://openalex.org/W2060986072","https://openalex.org/W2351712633","https://openalex.org/W4388667037","https://openalex.org/W2123797362","https://openalex.org/W3134583160"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"The":[0,91],"SEIR":[1,25],"model":[2,28,61,92,157],"is":[3,15,102,154,158],"widely":[4],"used":[5],"in":[6,79],"simulating":[7],"the":[8,24,31,35,70,74,80,106,126,147,150,162,165,174,177,203,208],"spread":[9,32],"of":[10,37,73,77,108,128,149,164,176,189,192],"infectious":[11,19],"diseases.":[12],"COVID-19":[13],"virus":[14],"a":[16,87,118],"very":[17],"severe":[18],"disease.":[20],"Some":[21],"studies":[22],"leverage":[23,117],"or":[26],"SEIRD":[27,56,89,180,206],"to":[29,104,123,160],"simulate":[30],"and":[33,39,94,113,135,167,212],"estimate":[34,125],"number":[36,76,107],"infected":[38],"recovered":[40,111],"people":[41],"as":[42],"time":[43,153],"goes":[44],"on.":[45],"However,":[46],"these":[47],"models":[48],"suffer":[49],"from":[50],"two":[51],"key":[52],"deficiencies:":[53],"(i)":[54],"conventional":[55],"does":[57],"not":[58],"update":[59],"its":[60,96],"parameters":[62,97,127,151,166],"w.r.t.":[63,152],"time;":[64],"(ii)":[65],"it":[66,101],"focuses":[67],"on":[68,185],"predicting":[69],"trend,":[71],"instead":[72],"actual":[75],"infections":[78],"future.":[81],"In":[82],"this":[83],"paper,":[84],"we":[85,116,182],"propose":[86],"cascade":[88,179,205],"model.":[90],"learns":[93],"updates":[95],"every":[98],"day.":[99],"Moreover,":[100],"able":[103],"predict":[105,168],"infection":[109,129],"cases,":[110],"cases":[112],"deaths.":[114],"Specifically,":[115],"machine":[119],"learning":[120],"like":[121],"approach":[122],"dynamically":[124],"rate,":[130,132,137],"incubation":[131],"recovery":[133],"rate":[134],"death":[136],"which":[138],"can":[139],"be":[140],"updated":[141],"by":[142],"gradient":[143],"descent":[144],"algorithm.":[145],"Once":[146],"nature":[148],"determined,":[155],"ARIMA":[156],"adopted":[159],"characterize":[161],"dynamics":[163],"their":[169],"future":[170],"changes.":[171],"To":[172],"validate":[173],"effectiveness":[175],"proposed":[178,204],"model,":[181],"conduct":[183],"experiments":[184],"five":[186],"data":[187],"sets":[188],"different":[190],"scales":[191],"regions":[193],"(China,":[194],"Hubei,":[195],"Wuhan,":[196],"Shenzhen,":[197],"US).":[198],"Experimental":[199],"results":[200],"show":[201],"that":[202],"achieves":[207],"most":[209],"accurate":[210],"prediction":[211],"outperforms":[213],"state-of-the-art":[214],"techniques.":[215]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-07-14T23:27:15.235271","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}
