{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7155066261","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/access.2026.3685781","title":"A Data-Driven Framework for Vaccine Demand Forecasting and Inventory Simulation in a Hospital Travel Clinic","display_name":"A Data-Driven Framework for Vaccine Demand Forecasting and Inventory Simulation in a Hospital Travel Clinic","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-01-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7155066261","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/access.2026.3685781"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1109/access.2026.3685781","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/access.2026.3685781","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2485537415","display_name":"IEEE Access","issn_l":"2169-3536","issn":["2169-3536"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319808","host_organization_name":"Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319808"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"IEEE Access","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","doaj"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/access.2026.3685781","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5077637329","display_name":"Sanyapong Petchrompo","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5530-3656"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I158708052","display_name":"Chulalongkorn University","ror":"https://ror.org/028wp3y58","country_code":"TH","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I158708052"]}],"countries":["TH"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Sanyapong Petchrompo","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5530-3656","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I158708052"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5134168974","display_name":"Bhapisut Wangprasertkul","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I158708052","display_name":"Chulalongkorn University","ror":"https://ror.org/028wp3y58","country_code":"TH","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I158708052"]}],"countries":["TH"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Bhapisut Wangprasertkul","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I158708052"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5134141350","display_name":"Atipong Sungsee","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I158708052","display_name":"Chulalongkorn University","ror":"https://ror.org/028wp3y58","country_code":"TH","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I158708052"]}],"countries":["TH"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Atipong Sungsee","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I158708052"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5070465329","display_name":"Watcharapong Piyaphanee","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2905-1034"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I25399158","display_name":"Mahidol University","ror":"https://ror.org/01znkr924","country_code":"TH","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I25399158"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210126604","display_name":"Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit","ror":"https://ror.org/03fs9z545","country_code":"TH","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I25399158","https://openalex.org/I40120149","https://openalex.org/I4210126604","https://openalex.org/I87048295"]}],"countries":["TH"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Watcharapong Piyaphanee","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Clinical Tropical Medicine, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Clinical Tropical Medicine, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I25399158","https://openalex.org/I4210126604"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5027972604","display_name":"Punyisa Asawapaithulsert","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0003-3405-324X"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I25399158","display_name":"Mahidol University","ror":"https://ror.org/01znkr924","country_code":"TH","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I25399158"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210126604","display_name":"Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit","ror":"https://ror.org/03fs9z545","country_code":"TH","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I25399158","https://openalex.org/I40120149","https://openalex.org/I4210126604","https://openalex.org/I87048295"]}],"countries":["TH"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Punyisa Asawapaithulsert","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Clinical Tropical Medicine, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Clinical Tropical Medicine, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I25399158","https://openalex.org/I4210126604"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5010133948","display_name":"Wasin Padungwech","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4842-5222"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210117768","display_name":"Centre of Excellence in Mathematics","ror":"https://ror.org/02df7gw66","country_code":"TH","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210117768"]}],"countries":["TH"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Wasin Padungwech","raw_affiliation_strings":["Centre of Excellence in Mathematics,MHESI, Bangkok, Thailand"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4842-5222","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Centre of Excellence in Mathematics,MHESI, Bangkok, Thailand","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210117768"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5134153465","display_name":"Chattarin Wangwittaya","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I102065260","display_name":"PTT Public Company Limited (Thailand)","ror":"https://ror.org/056ksgr44","country_code":"TH","type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I102065260"]}],"countries":["TH"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Chattarin Wangwittaya","raw_affiliation_strings":["H LAB Company Ltd., Bangkok, Thailand"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"H LAB Company Ltd., Bangkok, Thailand","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I102065260"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5001278912","display_name":"Pisit Jarumaneeroj","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5191-5898"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I158708052","display_name":"Chulalongkorn University","ror":"https://ror.org/028wp3y58","country_code":"TH","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I158708052"]}],"countries":["TH"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Pisit Jarumaneeroj","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5191-5898","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I158708052"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":5,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":{"value":1850,"currency":"USD","value_usd":1850},"apc_paid":{"value":1850,"currency":"USD","value_usd":1850},"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.47245368,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":"14","issue":null,"first_page":"63536","last_page":"63552"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.21330000460147858,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.21330000460147858,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11773","display_name":"Healthcare Operations and Scheduling Optimization","score":0.1648000031709671,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3604","display_name":"Emergency Medical Services"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/36","display_name":"Health Professions"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":0.0860000029206276,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/demand-forecasting","display_name":"Demand forecasting","score":0.6840000152587891},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/discrete-event-simulation","display_name":"Discrete event simulation","score":0.3280999958515167},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/travel-time","display_name":"Travel time","score":0.3009999990463257},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/air-travel","display_name":"Air travel","score":0.29350000619888306},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/inventory-management","display_name":"Inventory management","score":0.2865000069141388},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/health-care","display_name":"Health care","score":0.26820001006126404}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C193809577","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3409300","display_name":"Demand forecasting","level":2,"score":0.6840000152587891},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C42475967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q194292","display_name":"Operations research","level":1,"score":0.42590001225471497},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.4120999872684479},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C21547014","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1423657","display_name":"Operations management","level":1,"score":0.3450999855995178},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144133560","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4830453","display_name":"Business","level":0,"score":0.3352999985218048},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C147203929","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q574814","display_name":"Discrete event simulation","level":2,"score":0.3280999958515167},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C545542383","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2751242","display_name":"Medical emergency","level":1,"score":0.3093999922275543},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2985733770","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1233007","display_name":"Travel time","level":2,"score":0.3009999990463257},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2985550459","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q376880","display_name":"Air travel","level":3,"score":0.29350000619888306},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3018434026","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3761396","display_name":"Inventory management","level":2,"score":0.2865000069141388},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C160735492","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q31207","display_name":"Health care","level":2,"score":0.26820001006126404},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2983523559","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q410657","display_name":"On demand","level":2,"score":0.2628999948501587},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C163068380","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3409313","display_name":"Economic forecasting","level":2,"score":0.260699987411499},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2987549487","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6059951","display_name":"Inventory cost","level":3,"score":0.2603999972343445}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1109/access.2026.3685781","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/access.2026.3685781","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2485537415","display_name":"IEEE Access","issn_l":"2169-3536","issn":["2169-3536"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319808","host_organization_name":"Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319808"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"IEEE Access","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:9f54bb28a7e847029653de940ef58cd7","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/9f54bb28a7e847029653de940ef58cd7","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401280","display_name":"DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"IEEE Access, Vol 14, Pp 63536-63552 (2026)","raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1109/access.2026.3685781","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/access.2026.3685781","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2485537415","display_name":"IEEE Access","issn_l":"2169-3536","issn":["2169-3536"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319808","host_organization_name":"Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319808"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"IEEE Access","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Forecasting":[0],"vaccine":[1,29,199,220,239],"demand":[2,43,115,243],"and":[3,40,88,108,116,133,154,187,244],"determining":[4],"inventory":[5,134,213],"policies":[6],"are":[7],"critical":[8],"challenges":[9],"in":[10,144],"healthcare":[11],"supply":[12],"chains,":[13],"where":[14],"uncertainty":[15],"poses":[16],"significant":[17],"operational":[18,77],"risks.":[19],"This":[20,229],"study":[21,141],"proposes":[22],"a":[23,46,64,83,89,145,201],"two-step":[24],"data-driven":[25,123],"framework":[26],"to":[27,56,71,76,93,113,118,218],"support":[28],"planning":[30],"under":[31],"uncertainty.":[32,58],"The":[33,79],"first":[34],"step":[35,81],"leverages":[36],"machine":[37],"learning":[38],"models\u2014XGBoost":[39],"LightGBM\u2014for":[41],"daily":[42],"forecasting":[44],"using":[45,63,136],"recursive":[47],"multi-day":[48],"strategy,":[49],"with":[50,175,241],"model":[51],"deviations":[52,74],"generated":[53],"via":[54],"bootstrapping":[55],"characterize":[57],"Forecast":[59],"accuracy":[60],"is":[61,101,230],"evaluated":[62],"sliding-window":[65],"Mean":[66],"Cumulative":[67],"Absolute":[68],"Percentage":[69],"Error":[70],"capture":[72],"cumulative":[73],"relevant":[75],"planning.":[78],"second":[80],"employs":[82],"stochastic":[84],"Monte":[85],"Carlo":[86],"simulation":[87,127],"custom":[90],"performance-based":[91],"heuristic":[92,192],"determine":[94],"proper":[95],"policy":[96,195],"parameters.":[97],"A":[98,139],"key":[99],"feature":[100],"the":[102,126,150,155,190,209,225],"implementation":[103],"of":[104,157,227],"dynamic":[105],"reorder":[106],"points":[107],"order":[109],"quantities":[110],"that":[111,163,208,236],"adapt":[112],"forecasted":[114],"volatility":[117],"ensure":[119],"responsiveness.":[120],"By":[121],"incorporating":[122],"forecast":[124],"distributions,":[125],"evaluates":[128],"tradeoffs":[129],"between":[130],"stock-out":[131],"risk":[132,226],"efficiency":[135],"Value-at-Risk":[137],"metrics.":[138],"case":[140],"examining":[142],"vaccines":[143],"hospital":[146,216],"travel":[147,234],"clinic":[148],"confirms":[149],"framework\u2019s":[151],"real-world":[152],"applicability":[153],"effectiveness":[156],"this":[158],"hybrid":[159],"approach.":[160],"Results":[161],"reveal":[162],"XGBoost":[164],"performs":[165],"better":[166],"for":[167,197,233],"seasonal":[168],"or":[169],"volatile":[170],"demand,":[171],"while":[172,222],"LightGBM":[173],"excels":[174],"smoother":[176],"profiles.":[177],"Notably,":[178],"both":[179],"algorithms":[180,183],"outperform":[181],"benchmark":[182],"including":[184],"CatBoost,":[185],"LSTM,":[186],"Prophet.":[188],"Furthermore,":[189],"proposed":[191,210],"identifies":[193],"effective":[194],"parameters":[196],"each":[198],"within":[200,215],"computationally":[202],"efficient":[203],"timeframe.":[204],"Inventory":[205],"results":[206],"show":[207],"method":[211],"maintains":[212],"days":[214],"targets":[217],"maintain":[219],"potency":[221],"simultaneously":[223],"minimizing":[224],"stockout.":[228],"particularly":[231],"advantageous":[232],"clinics":[235],"manage":[237],"diverse":[238],"portfolios":[240],"unpredictable":[242],"strict":[245],"shelf-life":[246],"constraints.":[247]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-07-22T07:51:19.307946","created_date":"2026-04-22T00:00:00"}
