{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4415593777","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/access.2025.3625984","title":"Probabilistic Multiplicative Stochastic Modeling of Aviation Safety Risks Using the Swiss Cheese Model: A Monte Carlo Simulation Approach","display_name":"Probabilistic Multiplicative Stochastic Modeling of Aviation Safety Risks Using the Swiss Cheese Model: A Monte Carlo Simulation Approach","publication_year":2025,"publication_date":"2025-01-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4415593777","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/access.2025.3625984"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1109/access.2025.3625984","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/access.2025.3625984","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2485537415","display_name":"IEEE Access","issn_l":"2169-3536","issn":["2169-3536"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319808","host_organization_name":"Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319808"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"IEEE Access","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","doaj"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/access.2025.3625984","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5029551448","display_name":"Kayrat Koshekov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9586-2310"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210158296","display_name":"Academy of Civil Aviation","ror":"https://ror.org/04xy7xh64","country_code":"KZ","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210158296"]}],"countries":["KZ"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Kayrat Koshekov","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Aviation Engineering and Technologies, Civil Aviation Academy, Almaty, Kazakhstan","Department of Aviation Engineering and Technologies, Civil Aviation Academy, Almaty, Republic of Kazakhstan"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Aviation Engineering and Technologies, Civil Aviation Academy, Almaty, Kazakhstan","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210158296"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Aviation Engineering and Technologies, Civil Aviation Academy, Almaty, Republic of Kazakhstan","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210158296"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5120152266","display_name":"Yerbol Ospanov","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210158296","display_name":"Academy of Civil Aviation","ror":"https://ror.org/04xy7xh64","country_code":"KZ","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210158296"]}],"countries":["KZ"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Yerbol Ospanov","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Aviation Engineering and Technologies, Civil Aviation Academy, Almaty, Kazakhstan","Department of Aviation Engineering and Technologies, Civil Aviation Academy, Almaty, Republic of Kazakhstan"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Aviation Engineering and Technologies, Civil Aviation Academy, Almaty, Kazakhstan","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210158296"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Aviation Engineering and Technologies, Civil Aviation Academy, Almaty, Republic of Kazakhstan","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210158296"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5003873818","display_name":"Bibigul Muratkhan","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210158296","display_name":"Academy of Civil Aviation","ror":"https://ror.org/04xy7xh64","country_code":"KZ","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210158296"]}],"countries":["KZ"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Bibigul Muratkhan","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Aviation Engineering and Technologies, Civil Aviation Academy, Almaty, Kazakhstan","Department of Aviation Engineering and Technologies, Civil Aviation Academy, Almaty, Republic of Kazakhstan"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Aviation Engineering and Technologies, Civil Aviation Academy, Almaty, Kazakhstan","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210158296"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Aviation Engineering and Technologies, Civil Aviation Academy, Almaty, Republic of Kazakhstan","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210158296"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5049385593","display_name":"\u041d\u0430\u0442\u0430\u043b\u0456\u044f \u041c\u0438\u0445\u0430\u0439\u043b\u0456\u0432\u043d\u0430 \u041b\u0435\u0432\u0447\u0435\u043d\u043a\u043e","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3283-6924"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4577782","display_name":"Technische Universit\u00e4t Berlin","ror":"https://ror.org/03v4gjf40","country_code":"DE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4577782"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Nataliia Levchenko","raw_affiliation_strings":["Institute of Sociology, Technical University of Berlin, Berlin, Germany"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Institute of Sociology, Technical University of Berlin, Berlin, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4577782"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5066726416","display_name":"Abay Koshekov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7373-1494"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210158296","display_name":"Academy of Civil Aviation","ror":"https://ror.org/04xy7xh64","country_code":"KZ","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210158296"]}],"countries":["KZ"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Abay Koshekov","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Aviation Engineering and Technologies, Civil Aviation Academy, Almaty, Kazakhstan","Department of Aviation Engineering and Technologies, Civil Aviation Academy, Almaty, Republic of Kazakhstan"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7373-1494","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Aviation Engineering and Technologies, Civil Aviation Academy, Almaty, Kazakhstan","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210158296"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Aviation Engineering and Technologies, Civil Aviation Academy, Almaty, Republic of Kazakhstan","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210158296"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5115698636","display_name":"Rustam Togambayev","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0045-5764"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I24568809","display_name":"Transport and Telecommunication Institute","ror":"https://ror.org/01628w679","country_code":"LV","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I24568809"]}],"countries":["LV"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Rustam Togambayev","raw_affiliation_strings":["3Department of Telematics and Logistics, Transport and Telecommunication Institute, Riga, Latvia","Department of Telematics and Logistics, Transport and Telecommunication Institute, Riga, Latvia"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"3Department of Telematics and Logistics, Transport and Telecommunication Institute, Riga, Latvia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I24568809"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Telematics and Logistics, Transport and Telecommunication Institute, Riga, Latvia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I24568809"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":3,"institutions_distinct_count":3,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":{"value":1850,"currency":"USD","value_usd":1850},"apc_paid":{"value":1850,"currency":"USD","value_usd":1850},"fwci":6.7251,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":2,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.96517149,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":97,"max":98},"biblio":{"volume":"13","issue":null,"first_page":"185233","last_page":"185244"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11489","display_name":"Air Traffic Management and Optimization","score":0.9574999809265137,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2202","display_name":"Aerospace Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11489","display_name":"Air Traffic Management and Optimization","score":0.9574999809265137,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2202","display_name":"Aerospace Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probabilistic-logic","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","score":0.6438999772071838},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/monte-carlo-method","display_name":"Monte Carlo method","score":0.5551999807357788},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/aviation","display_name":"Aviation","score":0.5353999733924866},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/multiplicative-function","display_name":"Multiplicative function","score":0.4562000036239624},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/aviation-accident","display_name":"Aviation accident","score":0.4368000030517578},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probabilistic-risk-assessment","display_name":"Probabilistic risk assessment","score":0.4309000074863434},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/risk-assessment","display_name":"Risk assessment","score":0.4219000041484833},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/stochastic-modelling","display_name":"Stochastic modelling","score":0.38659998774528503},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/novelty","display_name":"Novelty","score":0.38370001316070557},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bayesian-probability","display_name":"Bayesian probability","score":0.36500000953674316}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.6901999711990356},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49937458","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2599292","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","level":2,"score":0.6438999772071838},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C19499675","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q232207","display_name":"Monte Carlo method","level":2,"score":0.5551999807357788},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C74448152","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q765633","display_name":"Aviation","level":2,"score":0.5353999733924866},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C42747912","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1048447","display_name":"Multiplicative function","level":2,"score":0.4562000036239624},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2908613842","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q108284447","display_name":"Aviation accident","level":3,"score":0.4368000030517578},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C73722673","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1082833","display_name":"Probabilistic risk assessment","level":3,"score":0.4309000074863434},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C12174686","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1058438","display_name":"Risk assessment","level":2,"score":0.4219000041484833},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C112930515","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4389547","display_name":"Risk analysis (engineering)","level":1,"score":0.40880000591278076},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127491075","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7617825","display_name":"Stochastic modelling","level":2,"score":0.38659998774528503},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778738651","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q16546687","display_name":"Novelty","level":2,"score":0.38370001316070557},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107673813","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812534","display_name":"Bayesian probability","level":2,"score":0.36500000953674316},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C512918668","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q206814","display_name":"Civil aviation","level":3,"score":0.35690000653266907},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C32896092","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q189447","display_name":"Risk management","level":2,"score":0.3522999882698059},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C32230216","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7882499","display_name":"Uncertainty quantification","level":2,"score":0.3522000014781952},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C122123141","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q176623","display_name":"Random variable","level":2,"score":0.34389999508857727},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C114289077","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3284399","display_name":"Statistical model","level":2,"score":0.33719998598098755},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C538199239","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q640853","display_name":"Aviation safety","level":3,"score":0.3181000053882599},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C42475967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q194292","display_name":"Operations research","level":1,"score":0.3174000084400177},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149441793","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q200726","display_name":"Probability distribution","level":2,"score":0.3125999867916107},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C8272713","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q176737","display_name":"Stochastic process","level":2,"score":0.30799999833106995},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C132835097","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7663745","display_name":"System safety","level":2,"score":0.3052999973297119},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780598303","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q65921492","display_name":"Flexibility (engineering)","level":2,"score":0.3046000003814697},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C200601418","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2193887","display_name":"Reliability engineering","level":1,"score":0.296999990940094},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777317252","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q18393516","display_name":"Rare events","level":2,"score":0.29670000076293945},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C178011137","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q285997","display_name":"Dempster\u2013Shafer theory","level":2,"score":0.29600000381469727},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C25915931","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4180825","display_name":"Stochastic simulation","level":2,"score":0.295199990272522},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C43214815","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7310987","display_name":"Reliability (semiconductor)","level":3,"score":0.2703000009059906},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776777543","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1361182","display_name":"Air traffic management","level":3,"score":0.26840001344680786},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33724603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812540","display_name":"Bayesian network","level":2,"score":0.2603999972343445},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49261128","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1132455","display_name":"Hazard","level":2,"score":0.258899986743927},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C177803969","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q29205","display_name":"Uncertainty analysis","level":2,"score":0.25690001249313354},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C124101348","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q172491","display_name":"Data mining","level":1,"score":0.2565999925136566},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111350023","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1191869","display_name":"Markov chain Monte Carlo","level":3,"score":0.2558000087738037}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1109/access.2025.3625984","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/access.2025.3625984","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2485537415","display_name":"IEEE Access","issn_l":"2169-3536","issn":["2169-3536"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319808","host_organization_name":"Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319808"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"IEEE Access","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:c1bb8099c6c748759cb8cafc1851279b","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/c1bb8099c6c748759cb8cafc1851279b","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401280","display_name":"DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"IEEE Access, Vol 13, Pp 185233-185244 (2025)","raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1109/access.2025.3625984","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/access.2025.3625984","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2485537415","display_name":"IEEE Access","issn_l":"2169-3536","issn":["2169-3536"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319808","host_organization_name":"Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319808"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"IEEE Access","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":33,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W2037098035","https://openalex.org/W2041363848","https://openalex.org/W2078695982","https://openalex.org/W2097412031","https://openalex.org/W2168253199","https://openalex.org/W2318264551","https://openalex.org/W2809959988","https://openalex.org/W2898206134","https://openalex.org/W2913489566","https://openalex.org/W3006586637","https://openalex.org/W3110929880","https://openalex.org/W3181288465","https://openalex.org/W3199066296","https://openalex.org/W3199845346","https://openalex.org/W4226367277","https://openalex.org/W4281666045","https://openalex.org/W4312175172","https://openalex.org/W4318480161","https://openalex.org/W4361009936","https://openalex.org/W4362509164","https://openalex.org/W4372334650","https://openalex.org/W4382983205","https://openalex.org/W4386736781","https://openalex.org/W4389776778","https://openalex.org/W4389776824","https://openalex.org/W4389779100","https://openalex.org/W4390872230","https://openalex.org/W4395080750","https://openalex.org/W4403172261","https://openalex.org/W4405923977","https://openalex.org/W4407226730","https://openalex.org/W4407789233","https://openalex.org/W4409905914"],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Although":[0],"various":[1],"approaches":[2],"have":[3],"been":[4],"reported":[5],"for":[6,34,74],"forecasting":[7],"aviation":[8,46,149],"safety":[9,55,150],"risks,":[10],"they":[11],"frequently":[12],"fail":[13],"to":[14,52,108,127,148,157],"fully":[15],"consider":[16],"the":[17,32,43,85,123,133,153,171,177,190],"stochastic":[18,63,159],"nature":[19],"and":[20,36,48,78,105,111,140,176,192],"complex":[21],"interrelations":[22],"of":[23,45,87,167,173,179,194],"numerous":[24],"real-time":[25],"factors":[26],"that":[27,40],"influence":[28],"safety.":[29],"This":[30,145],"highlights":[31],"urgency":[33],"flexible":[35],"realistic":[37],"analytical":[38],"tools":[39],"can":[41],"quantify":[42],"probability":[44,86],"accidents":[47],"identify":[49],"critical":[50],"vulnerabilities":[51],"support":[53],"proactive":[54],"management.":[56],"In":[57],"this":[58,168],"study,":[59],"a":[60,90,158],"probabilistic":[61],"multiplicative":[62],"risk":[64,76,82,197],"model":[65,156],"was":[66,120],"developed":[67],"based":[68,101],"on":[69,102,142],"Reason\u2019s":[70],"\u201cSwiss":[71],"cheese\u201d":[72],"concept":[73],"quantitative":[75],"assessment":[77],"dynamic":[79],"forecasting.":[80],"Key":[81],"parameters":[83],"(e.g.,":[84],"breaking":[88],"through":[89],"protective":[91],"barrier)":[92],"were":[93],"modeled":[94],"as":[95],"random":[96],"variables":[97],"with":[98,162,201],"beta":[99],"distributions":[100],"empirical":[103],"observations":[104],"expert":[106,143],"judgment":[107],"capture":[109],"uncertainty":[110],"variability.":[112],"Large-scale":[113],"scenario":[114],"modeling":[115],"(10,000":[116],"simulations":[117],"per":[118],"scenario)":[119],"conducted":[121],"using":[122],"Monte":[124],"Carlo":[125],"method":[126],"obtain":[128],"statistically":[129],"stable":[130],"estimates,":[131],"acknowledging":[132],"limitations":[134,193],"posed":[135],"by":[136,151],"sparse":[137,202],"accident":[138,185,203],"data":[139],"reliance":[141],"judgment.":[144],"study":[146],"contributes":[147],"adapting":[152],"Swiss":[154],"cheese":[155],"framework":[160],"parameterized":[161],"regional":[163],"data.":[164],"The":[165,187],"novelty":[166],"approach":[169],"is":[170],"quantification":[172],"barrier-specific":[174],"probabilities":[175],"demonstration":[178],"how":[180],"scenario-based":[181],"improvements":[182],"affect":[183],"overall":[184],"likelihood.":[186],"results":[188],"highlight":[189],"potential":[191],"applying":[195],"rare-event":[196],"models":[198],"in":[199],"regions":[200],"statistics.":[204]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":2}],"updated_date":"2025-11-06T03:46:38.306776","created_date":"2025-10-28T00:00:00"}