{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4410852639","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/access.2025.3574788","title":"Daily Crude Oil Prices Forecasting Using a Novel Hybrid Time Series Technique","display_name":"Daily Crude Oil Prices Forecasting Using a Novel Hybrid Time Series Technique","publication_year":2025,"publication_date":"2025-01-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4410852639","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/access.2025.3574788"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1109/access.2025.3574788","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/access.2025.3574788","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2485537415","display_name":"IEEE Access","issn_l":"2169-3536","issn":["2169-3536"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319808","host_organization_name":"Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319808"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"IEEE Access","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","doaj"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/access.2025.3574788","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5080132651","display_name":"Hasnain Iftikhar","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8533-5410"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I12469534","display_name":"Quaid-i-Azam University","ror":"https://ror.org/04s9hft57","country_code":"PK","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I12469534"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I149704539","display_name":"Deakin University","ror":"https://ror.org/02czsnj07","country_code":"AU","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I149704539"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I36001604","display_name":"University of Peshawar","ror":"https://ror.org/02t2qwf81","country_code":"PK","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I36001604"]}],"countries":["AU","PK"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Hasnain Iftikhar","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Statistics, University of Peshawar, Peshawar, Pakistan","Faculty of Science, Engineering and Built Environment, Deakin University, Burwood, Australia","Department of Statistics, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad, Pakistan"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8533-5410","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Statistics, University of Peshawar, Peshawar, Pakistan","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I36001604"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Faculty of Science, Engineering and Built Environment, Deakin University, Burwood, Australia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I149704539"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Statistics, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad, Pakistan","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I12469534"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5039670505","display_name":"Moiz Qureshi","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4993-9433"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I12469534","display_name":"Quaid-i-Azam University","ror":"https://ror.org/04s9hft57","country_code":"PK","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I12469534"]}],"countries":["PK"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Moiz Qureshi","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Statistics, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad, Pakistan"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Statistics, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad, Pakistan","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I12469534"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5024974930","display_name":"Paulo Canas Rodrigues","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1248-9910"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I126158947","display_name":"Universidade Federal da Bahia","ror":"https://ror.org/03k3p7647","country_code":"BR","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I126158947"]}],"countries":["BR"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Paulo Canas Rodrigues","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Statistics, Federal University of Bahia, Salvador, Brazil"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1248-9910","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Statistics, Federal University of Bahia, Salvador, Brazil","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I126158947"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5054246588","display_name":"M. Usman Iftikhar","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1343-5834"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I149704539","display_name":"Deakin University","ror":"https://ror.org/02czsnj07","country_code":"AU","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I149704539"]}],"countries":["AU"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Muhammad Usman Iftikhar","raw_affiliation_strings":["Faculty of Science, Engineering and Built Environment, Deakin University, Burwood, Australia","Faculty of Science, Engineering and Built Environment, Deakin University, Australia"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Faculty of Science, Engineering and Built Environment, Deakin University, Burwood, Australia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I149704539"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Faculty of Science, Engineering and Built Environment, Deakin University, Australia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I149704539"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5030048049","display_name":"Javier Linkolk L\u00f3pez\u2010Gonzales","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0847-0552"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210140760","display_name":"Universidad Peruana Uni\u00f3n","ror":"https://ror.org/042gckq23","country_code":"PE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210140760"]}],"countries":["PE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Javier Linkolk L\u00f3pez-Gonzales","raw_affiliation_strings":["Escuela de Posgrado, Universidad Peruana Uni&#x00F3;n, Lima, Peru"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0847-0552","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Escuela de Posgrado, Universidad Peruana Uni&#x00F3;n, Lima, Peru","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210140760"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":null,"display_name":"Hasnain Iftikhar","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I149704539","display_name":"Deakin University","ror":"https://ror.org/02czsnj07","country_code":"AU","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I149704539"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I36001604","display_name":"University of Peshawar","ror":"https://ror.org/02t2qwf81","country_code":"PK","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I36001604"]}],"countries":["AU","PK"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Hasnain Iftikhar","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Statistics, University of Peshawar, Peshawar, Pakistan","Faculty of Science, Engineering and Built Environment, Deakin University, Burwood, Australia"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Statistics, University of Peshawar, Peshawar, Pakistan","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I36001604"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Faculty of Science, Engineering and Built Environment, Deakin University, Burwood, Australia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I149704539"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":4,"institutions_distinct_count":6,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5080132651"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I12469534","https://openalex.org/I149704539","https://openalex.org/I36001604"],"apc_list":{"value":1850,"currency":"USD","value_usd":1850},"apc_paid":{"value":1850,"currency":"USD","value_usd":1850},"fwci":22.0554,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":8,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.99147365,"is_in_top_1_percent":true,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":98,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"13","issue":null,"first_page":"98822","last_page":"98836"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11059","display_name":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","score":0.9918000102043152,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11059","display_name":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","score":0.9918000102043152,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/series","display_name":"Series (stratigraphy)","score":0.6307735443115234},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/time-series","display_name":"Time series","score":0.5985755324363708},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/crude-oil","display_name":"Crude oil","score":0.58648282289505},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.5798163414001465},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/economic-forecasting","display_name":"Economic forecasting","score":0.41570544242858887},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/econometrics","display_name":"Econometrics","score":0.3223603367805481},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/machine-learning","display_name":"Machine learning","score":0.21668559312820435},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.1903020441532135},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/petroleum-engineering","display_name":"Petroleum engineering","score":0.18879982829093933},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/engineering","display_name":"Engineering","score":0.09438073635101318},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/geology","display_name":"Geology","score":0.07578599452972412}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C143724316","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q312468","display_name":"Series (stratigraphy)","level":2,"score":0.6307735443115234},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151406439","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q186588","display_name":"Time series","level":2,"score":0.5985755324363708},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2987168347","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q22656","display_name":"Crude oil","level":2,"score":0.58648282289505},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.5798163414001465},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C163068380","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3409313","display_name":"Economic forecasting","level":2,"score":0.41570544242858887},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.3223603367805481},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.21668559312820435},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.1903020441532135},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C78762247","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1273174","display_name":"Petroleum engineering","level":1,"score":0.18879982829093933},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127413603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11023","display_name":"Engineering","level":0,"score":0.09438073635101318},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127313418","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1069","display_name":"Geology","level":0,"score":0.07578599452972412},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151730666","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7205","display_name":"Paleontology","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1109/access.2025.3574788","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/access.2025.3574788","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2485537415","display_name":"IEEE Access","issn_l":"2169-3536","issn":["2169-3536"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319808","host_organization_name":"Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319808"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"IEEE Access","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:e77df39f97774c4699128f169760cff1","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/e77df39f97774c4699128f169760cff1","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401280","display_name":"DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"IEEE Access, Vol 13, Pp 98822-98836 (2025)","raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1109/access.2025.3574788","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/access.2025.3574788","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2485537415","display_name":"IEEE Access","issn_l":"2169-3536","issn":["2169-3536"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319808","host_organization_name":"Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319808"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"IEEE Access","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":76,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W388323479","https://openalex.org/W1510444525","https://openalex.org/W1513232892","https://openalex.org/W1823078419","https://openalex.org/W1967903496","https://openalex.org/W1978266801","https://openalex.org/W1980933792","https://openalex.org/W1991645088","https://openalex.org/W1996388931","https://openalex.org/W2008605811","https://openalex.org/W2010878208","https://openalex.org/W2017977879","https://openalex.org/W2031769266","https://openalex.org/W2054137409","https://openalex.org/W2085267939","https://openalex.org/W2085866051","https://openalex.org/W2132782512","https://openalex.org/W2150142188","https://openalex.org/W2160849785","https://openalex.org/W2467447381","https://openalex.org/W2480642495","https://openalex.org/W2521607306","https://openalex.org/W2612758347","https://openalex.org/W2620775452","https://openalex.org/W2728073923","https://openalex.org/W2782085727","https://openalex.org/W2789331854","https://openalex.org/W2795287040","https://openalex.org/W2810503069","https://openalex.org/W2915962169","https://openalex.org/W2922102378","https://openalex.org/W2954060152","https://openalex.org/W3015582917","https://openalex.org/W3125080556","https://openalex.org/W3126314491","https://openalex.org/W3196366936","https://openalex.org/W3206853280","https://openalex.org/W4234060530","https://openalex.org/W4238332381","https://openalex.org/W4285587037","https://openalex.org/W4288046734","https://openalex.org/W4323664655","https://openalex.org/W4323666937","https://openalex.org/W4378902719","https://openalex.org/W4385639047","https://openalex.org/W4385948404","https://openalex.org/W4386408925","https://openalex.org/W4386833194","https://openalex.org/W4386838433","https://openalex.org/W4386929249","https://openalex.org/W4390538376","https://openalex.org/W4390705670","https://openalex.org/W4390748771","https://openalex.org/W4391217845","https://openalex.org/W4391341750","https://openalex.org/W4392303566","https://openalex.org/W4394823010","https://openalex.org/W4395000025","https://openalex.org/W4396582003","https://openalex.org/W4399990332","https://openalex.org/W4400033304","https://openalex.org/W4400473121","https://openalex.org/W4400533635","https://openalex.org/W4400555014","https://openalex.org/W4400762160","https://openalex.org/W4401549546","https://openalex.org/W4401583152","https://openalex.org/W4402423025","https://openalex.org/W4404635490","https://openalex.org/W4405633716","https://openalex.org/W4408101797","https://openalex.org/W4408338798","https://openalex.org/W4408944862","https://openalex.org/W4408995963","https://openalex.org/W6632581141","https://openalex.org/W6689599172"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W1919101720","https://openalex.org/W4390822878","https://openalex.org/W4246257243","https://openalex.org/W4367362498","https://openalex.org/W96888382","https://openalex.org/W2119012848","https://openalex.org/W2622688551","https://openalex.org/W1550175370","https://openalex.org/W1990205660","https://openalex.org/W2364464172"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"This":[0],"paper":[1],"introduces":[2],"a":[3,167,216,221],"new":[4],"hybrid":[5,23,162,201],"time":[6,31,50,68,120,163],"series":[7,51,69,89,121,164],"forecasting":[8,158,202],"technique":[9,24],"to":[10,37,52,154,191,245],"obtain":[11,155],"an":[12,208,212],"efficient":[13],"and":[14,33,58,80,100,115,123,128,142,205,220,230,238,270],"accurate":[15],"daily":[16],"crude":[17,47,65],"oil":[18,48,66,232,247],"prices":[19,49,248],"forecast.":[20],"The":[21,85,147,160,196],"proposed":[22,161,194],"combines":[25],"the":[26,45,63,74,81,106,109,156,173,193,200,228,235,251,262],"features":[27],"of":[28,186,210,214,218,223,265,268,272],"various":[29,93],"regression,":[30],"series,":[32],"machine":[34,130],"learning":[35,131],"models":[36,240],"improve":[38],"forecast":[39,148],"accuracy.":[40],"First,":[41],"it":[42,61],"involved":[43],"processing":[44],"original":[46],"address":[53],"missing":[54],"values,":[55],"variance":[56],"stabilization,":[57],"normalization.":[59],"Second,":[60],"divides":[62],"purified":[64],"price":[67],"into":[70],"two":[71],"major":[72],"parts:":[73],"nonlinear":[75,174],"long-term":[76,175],"trend":[77,88],"(long-run":[78],"fluctuations)":[79],"residual":[82],"(short-term":[83],"fluctuations).":[84],"secular":[86],"non-linear":[87,124],"is":[90,113,152,258],"modeled":[91,114],"using":[92,117],"regression":[94,103,139,237],"models,":[95],"including":[96],"linear,":[97],"spline,":[98],"lowess,":[99],"smoothing":[101],"spline":[102],"models.":[104,146],"On":[105],"other":[107],"hand,":[108],"short-run":[110],"random":[111],"part":[112],"forecasted":[116],"four":[118,129],"benchmark":[119],"(linear":[122],"AR,":[125],"ARMA,":[126],"ESM)":[127],"(Neural":[132],"network":[133],"autoregressive,":[134],"Random":[135],"forest,":[136],"support":[137],"vector":[138],"with":[140],"polynomial":[141],"radial":[143],"basal":[144],"functions)":[145],"from":[149],"both":[150],"parts":[151],"summed":[153],"final":[157],"results.":[159],"method":[165],"builds":[166],"strong":[168],"emphasis":[169],"on":[170],"effectively":[171],"measuring":[172],"trend,":[176],"which":[177],"has":[178],"been":[179],"disregarded":[180],"in":[181,249,254],"prior":[182],"works.":[183],"A":[184],"variety":[185],"evaluation":[187],"metrics":[188],"are":[189,225,241],"employed":[190],"evaluate":[192],"effectiveness.":[195],"testing":[197],"findings":[198],"demonstrate":[199],"technique\u2019s":[203],"accuracy":[204],"efficacy.":[206],"Specifically,":[207],"MAE":[209,264],"1.28106,":[211],"RMSE":[213,267],"1.59259,":[215],"PCC":[217,271],"0.94158,":[219],"DS":[222],"0.82149":[224],"obtained":[226],"for":[227],"Brent":[229],"WTI":[231,246],"markets":[233],"when":[234],"Lowess":[236],"NPAR":[239],"combined.":[242],"With":[243],"regard":[244],"particular,":[250],"model\u2019s":[252],"resilience":[253],"producing":[255],"precise":[256],"forecasts":[257],"further":[259],"demonstrated":[260],"by":[261],"lowest":[263],"1.25730,":[266],"1.55390,":[269],"0.93890.":[273]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":5}],"updated_date":"2026-05-06T08:25:59.206177","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}
