{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4406015018","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/access.2024.3525146","title":"Climate Change Impact on Cereal Production in Northern Africa: A Comprehensive Modeling and Control Approach","display_name":"Climate Change Impact on Cereal Production in Northern Africa: A Comprehensive Modeling and Control Approach","publication_year":2025,"publication_date":"2025-01-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4406015018","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/access.2024.3525146"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1109/access.2024.3525146","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/access.2024.3525146","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2485537415","display_name":"IEEE Access","issn_l":"2169-3536","issn":["2169-3536"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319808","host_organization_name":"Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319808"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"IEEE Access","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","doaj"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/access.2024.3525146","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5063987759","display_name":"S. De Nardi","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0009-7923-6668"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I79940851","display_name":"University of Brescia","ror":"https://ror.org/02q2d2610","country_code":"IT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I79940851"]}],"countries":["IT"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Sabrina De Nardi","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, University of Brescia, Brescia, Italy","Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, University of Brescia, Italy"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0009-7923-6668","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, University of Brescia, Brescia, Italy","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I79940851"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, University of Brescia, Italy","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I79940851"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5084649887","display_name":"Claudio Carnevale","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5682-9297"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I79940851","display_name":"University of Brescia","ror":"https://ror.org/02q2d2610","country_code":"IT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I79940851"]}],"countries":["IT"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Claudio Carnevale","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, University of Brescia, Brescia, Italy","Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, University of Brescia, Italy"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5682-9297","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, University of Brescia, Brescia, Italy","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I79940851"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, University of Brescia, Italy","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I79940851"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5093842819","display_name":"Sara Raccagni","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I79940851","display_name":"University of Brescia","ror":"https://ror.org/02q2d2610","country_code":"IT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I79940851"]}],"countries":["IT"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Sara Raccagni","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, University of Brescia, Brescia, Italy","Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, University of Brescia, Italy"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, University of Brescia, Brescia, Italy","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I79940851"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, University of Brescia, Italy","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I79940851"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5061673578","display_name":"Luca Sangiorgi","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3658-1209"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I79940851","display_name":"University of Brescia","ror":"https://ror.org/02q2d2610","country_code":"IT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I79940851"]}],"countries":["IT"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Lucia Sangiorgi","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, University of Brescia, Brescia, Italy","Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, University of Brescia, Italy"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, University of Brescia, Brescia, Italy","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I79940851"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, University of Brescia, Italy","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I79940851"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":4,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5063987759"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I79940851"],"apc_list":{"value":1850,"currency":"USD","value_usd":1850},"apc_paid":{"value":1850,"currency":"USD","value_usd":1850},"fwci":6.3705,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":4,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.95027837,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":96,"max":98},"biblio":{"volume":"13","issue":null,"first_page":"5534","last_page":"5550"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12310","display_name":"Crop Yield and Soil Fertility","score":0.38100001215934753,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1102","display_name":"Agronomy and Crop Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/11","display_name":"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/1","display_name":"Life Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12310","display_name":"Crop Yield and Soil Fertility","score":0.38100001215934753,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1102","display_name":"Agronomy and Crop Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/11","display_name":"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/1","display_name":"Life Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/production","display_name":"Production (economics)","score":0.6172055602073669},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/climate-change","display_name":"Climate change","score":0.5211372375488281},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/control","display_name":"Control (management)","score":0.4106316566467285},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.3766627907752991},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/agricultural-engineering","display_name":"Agricultural engineering","score":0.36836618185043335},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/environmental-science","display_name":"Environmental science","score":0.32659417390823364},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/engineering","display_name":"Engineering","score":0.1330772042274475},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/economics","display_name":"Economics","score":0.09086301922798157},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/geology","display_name":"Geology","score":0.08670234680175781}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778348673","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q739302","display_name":"Production (economics)","level":2,"score":0.6172055602073669},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C132651083","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7942","display_name":"Climate change","level":2,"score":0.5211372375488281},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2775924081","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q55608371","display_name":"Control (management)","level":2,"score":0.4106316566467285},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.3766627907752991},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C88463610","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q194118","display_name":"Agricultural engineering","level":1,"score":0.36836618185043335},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39432304","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188847","display_name":"Environmental science","level":0,"score":0.32659417390823364},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127413603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11023","display_name":"Engineering","level":0,"score":0.1330772042274475},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.09086301922798157},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127313418","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1069","display_name":"Geology","level":0,"score":0.08670234680175781},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C139719470","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q39680","display_name":"Macroeconomics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111368507","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q43518","display_name":"Oceanography","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1109/access.2024.3525146","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/access.2024.3525146","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2485537415","display_name":"IEEE Access","issn_l":"2169-3536","issn":["2169-3536"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319808","host_organization_name":"Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319808"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"IEEE Access","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:5bc78ee004324e5e925baa9e8969759a","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/5bc78ee004324e5e925baa9e8969759a","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401280","display_name":"DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"IEEE Access, Vol 13, Pp 5534-5550 (2025)","raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:iris.unibs.it:11379/619326","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://hdl.handle.net/11379/619326","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400804","display_name":"Institutional Research Information System (Universit\u00e0 degli Studi di Brescia)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I66752286","host_organization_name":"University of Milano-Bicocca","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I66752286"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1109/access.2024.3525146","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/access.2024.3525146","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2485537415","display_name":"IEEE Access","issn_l":"2169-3536","issn":["2169-3536"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319808","host_organization_name":"Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319808"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"IEEE Access","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"display_name":"Zero hunger","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/2","score":0.5600000023841858}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":90,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W33848053","https://openalex.org/W1631623342","https://openalex.org/W1981838341","https://openalex.org/W2008598734","https://openalex.org/W2019711760","https://openalex.org/W2037901597","https://openalex.org/W2038669746","https://openalex.org/W2096685903","https://openalex.org/W2098952191","https://openalex.org/W2108198325","https://openalex.org/W2131753378","https://openalex.org/W2326539397","https://openalex.org/W2335001075","https://openalex.org/W2337552216","https://openalex.org/W2398025870","https://openalex.org/W2534127458","https://openalex.org/W2543983346","https://openalex.org/W2599207517","https://openalex.org/W2606511507","https://openalex.org/W2748361515","https://openalex.org/W2756371942","https://openalex.org/W2769966450","https://openalex.org/W2775013068","https://openalex.org/W2788298899","https://openalex.org/W2788556783","https://openalex.org/W2797589457","https://openalex.org/W2799842660","https://openalex.org/W2883390099","https://openalex.org/W2886355497","https://openalex.org/W2895482891","https://openalex.org/W2904428292","https://openalex.org/W2921293103","https://openalex.org/W2940574112","https://openalex.org/W2944842445","https://openalex.org/W2945823232","https://openalex.org/W2952502261","https://openalex.org/W2954541569","https://openalex.org/W2967840325","https://openalex.org/W3004887371","https://openalex.org/W3006566784","https://openalex.org/W3014816114","https://openalex.org/W3017487449","https://openalex.org/W3026032858","https://openalex.org/W3034066845","https://openalex.org/W3037762660","https://openalex.org/W3046906781","https://openalex.org/W3080609066","https://openalex.org/W3093222860","https://openalex.org/W3093447325","https://openalex.org/W3108984086","https://openalex.org/W3122928643","https://openalex.org/W3127209611","https://openalex.org/W3137448711","https://openalex.org/W3157248347","https://openalex.org/W3171254227","https://openalex.org/W3197852630","https://openalex.org/W3199801153","https://openalex.org/W3210595485","https://openalex.org/W4210773498","https://openalex.org/W4213055301","https://openalex.org/W4225283372","https://openalex.org/W4232287185","https://openalex.org/W4243552884","https://openalex.org/W4243714778","https://openalex.org/W4283739299","https://openalex.org/W4283757378","https://openalex.org/W4294214932","https://openalex.org/W4304616432","https://openalex.org/W4309211210","https://openalex.org/W4313477891","https://openalex.org/W4313891996","https://openalex.org/W4360615396","https://openalex.org/W4380990095","https://openalex.org/W4384933147","https://openalex.org/W4387914152","https://openalex.org/W4390140632","https://openalex.org/W4391274627","https://openalex.org/W4391450730","https://openalex.org/W4391695695","https://openalex.org/W4392283152","https://openalex.org/W4392821265","https://openalex.org/W4399570220","https://openalex.org/W4403432859","https://openalex.org/W6769908430","https://openalex.org/W6785522787","https://openalex.org/W6786517567","https://openalex.org/W6812122668","https://openalex.org/W6868973936","https://openalex.org/W7027375515","https://openalex.org/W7074681833"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W3096121261","https://openalex.org/W3190643595","https://openalex.org/W4225788860","https://openalex.org/W4205311831","https://openalex.org/W4376872516","https://openalex.org/W1968810339","https://openalex.org/W1991192109","https://openalex.org/W2895122413","https://openalex.org/W2074882370","https://openalex.org/W4214838897"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"The":[0,119,272,288],"Earth\u2019s":[1],"climate":[2,239,260,310],"is":[3,178,246,253],"undergoing":[4],"unprecedented":[5],"and":[6,74,79,85,109,152,160,166,188,192,209,237,280,285,299,306],"rapid":[7],"changes":[8],"primarily":[9],"due":[10],"to":[11,19,25,44,51,150,181,234,256,302],"human":[12],"activities,":[13],"especially":[14],"greenhouse":[15],"gas":[16],"emissions,":[17],"leading":[18],"a":[20,91,122,153,167,205,210,224],"temperature":[21,50,103,162,190],"rise":[22],"of":[23,34,164,172,207,215,259,266,290],"1.1\u00b0C":[24],"1.2\u00b0C":[26],"in":[27,48,116,270],"the":[28,38,46,133,136,202,219,257,294],"last":[29],"fifty":[30],"years.":[31],"In":[32],"spite":[33],"global":[35,49,146,187,236,267],"efforts":[36],"like":[37],"2015":[39],"Paris":[40],"Agreement":[41],"which":[42],"aims":[43],"limit":[45],"increase":[47],"1.5\u00b0C":[52],"above":[53],"pre-industrial":[54],"levels,":[55],"projections":[56],"indicate":[57],"that":[58,69],"this":[59,291],"threshold":[60],"will":[61,70],"likely":[62],"be":[63],"exceeded,":[64],"causing":[65],"severe":[66],"climatic":[67],"disruptions,":[68],"affect":[71],"vulnerable":[72],"regions":[73],"populations,":[75],"altering":[76],"weather":[77],"patterns":[78],"compromising":[80],"food":[81],"security,":[82],"water":[83],"resources,":[84],"economic":[86,242],"stability.":[87,287],"This":[88,195],"study":[89,250],"integrates":[90],"data-driven":[92],"downscaling":[93],"system":[94,227],"within":[95],"an":[96,175,247],"emission":[97],"control":[98,232],"framework":[99],"aimed":[100,233],"at":[101],"controlling":[102],"anomalies":[104,191],"by":[105],"reducing":[106],"CO2":[107,193],"emissions":[108,269],"evaluating":[110],"its":[111],"impact":[112],"on":[113,229],"cereal":[114,185],"production":[115],"North":[117,244],"Africa.":[118],"approach":[120],"employs":[121],"simplified":[123],"autoregressive":[124],"model":[125,177,196,230],"with":[126,142,201,241],"exogenous":[127],"input":[128],"(ARX)":[129],"for":[130,297],"downscaling.":[131],"During":[132],"validation":[134],"phase,":[135],"ARX":[137,176],"models":[138,220],"show":[139],"strong":[140],"agreement":[141,200],"data,":[143,203],"effectively":[144],"reproducing":[145],"temperatures":[147],"(correlation":[148,163],"close":[149],"1":[151],"normalized":[154,168,211],"mean":[155,169,212],"absolute":[156,170,213],"error":[157,171,214],"around":[158],"0.02)":[159],"local":[161],"0.75":[165],"0.2).":[173],"Moreover,":[174],"also":[179],"used":[180],"establish":[182],"links":[183],"between":[184],"production,":[186],"regional":[189,238],"emissions.":[194],"demonstrates":[197],"reasonably":[198],"good":[199],"achieving":[204],"correlation":[206],"0.72":[208],"0.18.":[216],"Once":[217],"validated,":[218],"are":[221],"integrated":[222],"into":[223],"decision":[225],"support":[226],"based":[228],"predictive":[231],"balance":[235],"objectives":[240],"considerations.":[243],"Africa":[245],"ideal":[248],"case":[249],"since":[251],"it":[252],"highly":[254],"susceptible":[255],"impacts":[258],"change,":[261],"despite":[262],"contributing":[263],"only":[264],"1.76%":[265],"carbon":[268],"2022.":[271],"region":[273],"faces":[274],"significant":[275],"risks":[276],"from":[277],"increased":[278],"aridity":[279],"heat,":[281],"threatening":[282],"agriculture,":[283],"ecosystems,":[284],"socio-economic":[286],"results":[289],"research":[292],"highlight":[293],"urgent":[295],"need":[296],"environmental":[298],"climate-resilient":[300],"measures":[301],"achieve":[303],"sustainable":[304],"development":[305],"enhance":[307],"resilience":[308],"against":[309],"impacts.":[311]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":3}],"updated_date":"2026-05-06T08:25:59.206177","created_date":"2025-01-03T00:00:00"}