{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4400033304","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/access.2024.3419551","title":"Electricity Demand Forecasting Using a Novel Time Series Ensemble Technique","display_name":"Electricity Demand Forecasting Using a Novel Time Series Ensemble Technique","publication_year":2024,"publication_date":"2024-01-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4400033304","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/access.2024.3419551"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1109/access.2024.3419551","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/access.2024.3419551","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2485537415","display_name":"IEEE Access","issn_l":"2169-3536","issn":["2169-3536"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319808","host_organization_name":"Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319808"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"IEEE Access","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","doaj"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/access.2024.3419551","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5080132651","display_name":"Hasnain Iftikhar","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8533-5410"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I12469534","display_name":"Quaid-i-Azam University","ror":"https://ror.org/04s9hft57","country_code":"PK","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I12469534"]}],"countries":["PK"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Hasnain Iftikhar","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Statistics, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad, Pakistan"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8533-5410","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Statistics, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad, Pakistan","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I12469534"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5099516195","display_name":"Salvatore Mancha Gonzales","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210140760","display_name":"Universidad Peruana Uni\u00f3n","ror":"https://ror.org/042gckq23","country_code":"PE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210140760"]}],"countries":["PE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Salvatore Mancha Gonzales","raw_affiliation_strings":["Escuela de Posgrado, Universidad Peruana Uni&#x00F3;n, Lima, Peru"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Escuela de Posgrado, Universidad Peruana Uni&#x00F3;n, Lima, Peru","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210140760"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5045669319","display_name":"Justyna \u017bywio\u0142ek","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0407-0826"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I130294970","display_name":"Cz\u0119stochowa University of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/046awyn59","country_code":"PL","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I130294970"]}],"countries":["PL"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Justyna Zywio\u0142ek","raw_affiliation_strings":["Faculty of Management, Czestochowa University of Technology, Czestochowa, Poland"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Faculty of Management, Czestochowa University of Technology, Czestochowa, Poland","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I130294970"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5030048049","display_name":"Javier Linkolk L\u00f3pez\u2010Gonzales","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0847-0552"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210140760","display_name":"Universidad Peruana Uni\u00f3n","ror":"https://ror.org/042gckq23","country_code":"PE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210140760"]}],"countries":["PE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Javier Linkolk L\u00f3pez-Gonzales","raw_affiliation_strings":["Escuela de Posgrado, Universidad Peruana Uni&#x00F3;n, Lima, Peru"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0847-0552","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Escuela de Posgrado, Universidad Peruana Uni&#x00F3;n, Lima, Peru","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210140760"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":3,"institutions_distinct_count":4,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5080132651"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I12469534"],"apc_list":{"value":1850,"currency":"USD","value_usd":1850},"apc_paid":{"value":1850,"currency":"USD","value_usd":1850},"fwci":8.6604,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":44,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.98350581,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":99,"max":100},"biblio":{"volume":"12","issue":null,"first_page":"88963","last_page":"88975"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11052","display_name":"Energy Load and Power Forecasting","score":0.9998999834060669,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2208","display_name":"Electrical and Electronic Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11052","display_name":"Energy Load and Power Forecasting","score":0.9998999834060669,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2208","display_name":"Electrical and Electronic Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12368","display_name":"Grey System Theory Applications","score":0.9926999807357788,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10424","display_name":"Electric Power System Optimization","score":0.9846000075340271,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2208","display_name":"Electrical and Electronic Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/electricity","display_name":"Electricity","score":0.6574415564537048},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/electricity-market","display_name":"Electricity market","score":0.6515265703201294},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/demand-forecasting","display_name":"Demand forecasting","score":0.6394141912460327},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/time-series","display_name":"Time series","score":0.6237497925758362},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.6031771898269653},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/ensemble-forecasting","display_name":"Ensemble forecasting","score":0.6020115613937378},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/electric-power-system","display_name":"Electric power system","score":0.5221072435379028},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probabilistic-forecasting","display_name":"Probabilistic forecasting","score":0.4971316158771515},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/ensemble-learning","display_name":"Ensemble learning","score":0.46976351737976074},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/series","display_name":"Series (stratigraphy)","score":0.4664067327976227},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/electricity-demand","display_name":"Electricity demand","score":0.4633308947086334},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/econometrics","display_name":"Econometrics","score":0.4561145007610321},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/variance","display_name":"Variance (accounting)","score":0.4409911036491394},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/electricity-generation","display_name":"Electricity generation","score":0.2994209825992584},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/operations-research","display_name":"Operations research","score":0.2591501772403717},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/power","display_name":"Power (physics)","score":0.22975924611091614},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/economics","display_name":"Economics","score":0.21063578128814697},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/artificial-intelligence","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","score":0.17746272683143616},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/machine-learning","display_name":"Machine learning","score":0.14073273539543152},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/engineering","display_name":"Engineering","score":0.10931256413459778}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C206658404","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12725","display_name":"Electricity","level":2,"score":0.6574415564537048},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C146733006","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q676081","display_name":"Electricity market","level":3,"score":0.6515265703201294},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C193809577","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3409300","display_name":"Demand forecasting","level":2,"score":0.6394141912460327},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151406439","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q186588","display_name":"Time series","level":2,"score":0.6237497925758362},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.6031771898269653},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119898033","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3433888","display_name":"Ensemble forecasting","level":2,"score":0.6020115613937378},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C89227174","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2388981","display_name":"Electric power system","level":3,"score":0.5221072435379028},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C122282355","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7246855","display_name":"Probabilistic forecasting","level":3,"score":0.4971316158771515},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C45942800","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q245652","display_name":"Ensemble learning","level":2,"score":0.46976351737976074},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C143724316","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q312468","display_name":"Series (stratigraphy)","level":2,"score":0.4664067327976227},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2988649059","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1853339","display_name":"Electricity demand","level":4,"score":0.4633308947086334},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.4561145007610321},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C196083921","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7915758","display_name":"Variance (accounting)","level":2,"score":0.4409911036491394},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C423512","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q383973","display_name":"Electricity generation","level":3,"score":0.2994209825992584},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C42475967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q194292","display_name":"Operations research","level":1,"score":0.2591501772403717},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C163258240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25342","display_name":"Power (physics)","level":2,"score":0.22975924611091614},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.21063578128814697},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.17746272683143616},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.14073273539543152},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127413603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11023","display_name":"Engineering","level":0,"score":0.10931256413459778},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49937458","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2599292","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","level":2,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86803240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q420","display_name":"Biology","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121955636","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4116214","display_name":"Accounting","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119599485","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q43035","display_name":"Electrical engineering","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C62520636","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q944","display_name":"Quantum mechanics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151730666","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7205","display_name":"Paleontology","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1109/access.2024.3419551","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/access.2024.3419551","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2485537415","display_name":"IEEE Access","issn_l":"2169-3536","issn":["2169-3536"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319808","host_organization_name":"Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319808"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"IEEE Access","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:f8e05f15cf4d4a01b89cf75d305a1b11","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/f8e05f15cf4d4a01b89cf75d305a1b11","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401280","display_name":"DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"IEEE Access, Vol 12, Pp 88963-88975 (2024)","raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1109/access.2024.3419551","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/access.2024.3419551","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2485537415","display_name":"IEEE Access","issn_l":"2169-3536","issn":["2169-3536"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319808","host_organization_name":"Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319808"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"IEEE Access","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.49000000953674316,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/7","display_name":"Affordable and clean energy"}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":38,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W2172148088","https://openalex.org/W2954060152","https://openalex.org/W2966674577","https://openalex.org/W3012214319","https://openalex.org/W3026930607","https://openalex.org/W3033027149","https://openalex.org/W3160005314","https://openalex.org/W3169702832","https://openalex.org/W3174887771","https://openalex.org/W4206025198","https://openalex.org/W4225545411","https://openalex.org/W4245409830","https://openalex.org/W4280525177","https://openalex.org/W4280615056","https://openalex.org/W4284973584","https://openalex.org/W4285389174","https://openalex.org/W4285587037","https://openalex.org/W4290990408","https://openalex.org/W4291327732","https://openalex.org/W4315574306","https://openalex.org/W4317470277","https://openalex.org/W4320919284","https://openalex.org/W4328092129","https://openalex.org/W4366783370","https://openalex.org/W4367682488","https://openalex.org/W4378902719","https://openalex.org/W4383163595","https://openalex.org/W4385948404","https://openalex.org/W4386788349","https://openalex.org/W4386833194","https://openalex.org/W4386838433","https://openalex.org/W4386929249","https://openalex.org/W4387789808","https://openalex.org/W4387821028","https://openalex.org/W4390538376","https://openalex.org/W4391991593","https://openalex.org/W4393012040","https://openalex.org/W6796380417"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2048290207","https://openalex.org/W2794896638","https://openalex.org/W2990134330","https://openalex.org/W2891633941","https://openalex.org/W4362706849","https://openalex.org/W2079508922","https://openalex.org/W4391233944","https://openalex.org/W4390905871","https://openalex.org/W4320498733","https://openalex.org/W1790870804"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Accurate":[0],"and":[1,11,75,83,108],"efficient":[2,107],"demand":[3,25,49,65,93,114,180],"forecasting":[4,125,133],"is":[5,29,105],"essential":[6],"to":[7,18,31,45,176],"grid":[8],"stability,":[9],"supply,":[10],"management":[12],"in":[13,50,115,148,152,181],"today\u2019s":[14],"electricity":[15,53,64,113,118,184],"markets.":[16],"Due":[17],"the":[19,51,61,91,100,116,121,128,136,149,153,182],"complex":[20],"pattern":[21],"of":[22,85],"electric":[23,47,178],"power":[24,48,179],"time":[26,41,66,81,94,102,131],"series,":[27],"it":[28],"challenging":[30],"model":[32,126],"them":[33],"directly.":[34],"Therefore,":[35],"this":[36],"research":[37],"proposes":[38],"a":[39],"novel":[40],"series":[42,67,82,132],"ensemble":[43,88,103,124,130,173],"approach":[44,59,104,134,175],"forecast":[46,90,111,177],"Peruvian":[52,117,183],"market":[54],"one":[55],"month":[56],"ahead.":[57],"This":[58],"treats":[60],"first":[62],"preprocessed":[63],"for":[68,112],"missing":[69],"values,":[70],"variance":[71],"stabilization,":[72],"normalization,":[73],"stationarity,":[74],"seasonality":[76],"issues.":[77],"Secondly,":[78],"six":[79],"single":[80],"three":[84],"their":[86],"proposed":[87,101,129],"models":[89,151],"clean":[92],"series.":[95],"The":[96],"results":[97],"indicate":[98],"that":[99],"an":[106,172],"precise":[109],"one-month-ahead":[110],"market.":[119,185],"Additionally,":[120],"final":[122],"best":[123],"within":[127],"obtained":[135],"smallest":[137],"average":[138],"accuracy":[139],"errors,":[140],"performing":[141],"statistically":[142],"significantly":[143],"better":[144],"than":[145],"those":[146],"mentioned":[147],"best-proposed":[150],"literature.":[154],"Lastly,":[155],"while":[156],"numerous":[157],"global":[158],"studies":[159],"have":[160],"been":[161,169],"conducted":[162],"from":[163],"various":[164],"perspectives,":[165],"no":[166],"analysis":[167],"has":[168],"undertaken":[170],"using":[171],"learning":[174]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":32},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":8}],"updated_date":"2026-05-06T08:25:59.206177","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}
