{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2948842003","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/access.2019.2921092","title":"On the Economic Significance of Stock Market Prediction and the No Free Lunch Theorem","display_name":"On the Economic Significance of Stock Market Prediction and the No Free Lunch Theorem","publication_year":2019,"publication_date":"2019-01-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2948842003","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1109/access.2019.2921092","mag":"2948842003"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1109/access.2019.2921092","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/access.2019.2921092","pdf_url":"https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/ielx7/6287639/8600701/08731844.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2485537415","display_name":"IEEE Access","issn_l":"2169-3536","issn":["2169-3536"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319808","host_organization_name":"Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319808"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"IEEE Access","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","doaj"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/ielx7/6287639/8600701/08731844.pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5047147780","display_name":"Carlos Bouso\u00f1o\u2010Calz\u00f3n","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7065-5692"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I50357001","display_name":"Universidad Carlos III de Madrid","ror":"https://ror.org/03ths8210","country_code":"ES","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I50357001"]}],"countries":["ES"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Carlos Bousono-Calzon","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Signal Theory and Communications, Univ. Carlos III de Madrid, Legan\u00e9s, Madrid, Spain"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7065-5692","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Signal Theory and Communications, Univ. Carlos III de Madrid, Legan\u00e9s, Madrid, Spain","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I50357001"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5051268592","display_name":"Josue Bustarviejo-Munoz","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0943-7810"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I50357001","display_name":"Universidad Carlos III de Madrid","ror":"https://ror.org/03ths8210","country_code":"ES","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I50357001"]}],"countries":["ES"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Josue Bustarviejo-Munoz","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Signal Theory and Communications, Univ. Carlos III de Madrid, Legan\u00e9s, Madrid, Spain"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Signal Theory and Communications, Univ. Carlos III de Madrid, Legan\u00e9s, Madrid, Spain","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I50357001"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5083956422","display_name":"Pedro Aceituno Aceituno","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9034-8673"},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Pedro Aceituno-Aceituno","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Business Administration and Management and Economics, Madrid Open University, Collado Villalba, Madrid, Spain"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Business Administration and Management and Economics, Madrid Open University, Collado Villalba, Madrid, Spain","institution_ids":[]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5063854046","display_name":"J. Joaqu\u00edn Escudero-Garz\u00e1s","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1456-7764"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I91045830","display_name":"Texas A&M University","ror":"https://ror.org/01f5ytq51","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I91045830"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Jose Joaquin Escudero-Garzas","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1456-7764","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I91045830"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":{"value":1850,"currency":"USD","value_usd":1850},"apc_paid":{"value":1850,"currency":"USD","value_usd":1850},"fwci":2.1749,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":26,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.8803541,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":96,"max":98},"biblio":{"volume":"7","issue":null,"first_page":"75177","last_page":"75188"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11326","display_name":"Stock Market Forecasting Methods","score":0.9998999834060669,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11326","display_name":"Stock Market Forecasting Methods","score":0.9998999834060669,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11270","display_name":"Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis","score":0.9973999857902527,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.9966999888420105,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/predictability","display_name":"Predictability","score":0.9014366865158081},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.6353183388710022},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/a-priori-and-a-posteriori","display_name":"A priori and a posteriori","score":0.6134215593338013},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/stock-market","display_name":"Stock market","score":0.557666540145874},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/stock","display_name":"Stock (firearms)","score":0.5513514876365662},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/financial-market","display_name":"Financial market","score":0.5419183373451233},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/econometrics","display_name":"Econometrics","score":0.5066302418708801},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/trading-strategy","display_name":"Trading strategy","score":0.43992123007774353},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/finance","display_name":"Finance","score":0.2646793723106384},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/economics","display_name":"Economics","score":0.2625483274459839},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.12411883473396301},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/statistics","display_name":"Statistics","score":0.0975419282913208}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C197640229","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2534066","display_name":"Predictability","level":2,"score":0.9014366865158081},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.6353183388710022},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C75553542","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q178161","display_name":"A priori and a posteriori","level":2,"score":0.6134215593338013},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780299701","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q475000","display_name":"Stock market","level":3,"score":0.557666540145874},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C204036174","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q909380","display_name":"Stock (firearms)","level":2,"score":0.5513514876365662},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C19244329","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q208697","display_name":"Financial market","level":2,"score":0.5419183373451233},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.5066302418708801},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C131562839","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1574928","display_name":"Trading strategy","level":2,"score":0.43992123007774353},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C10138342","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q43015","display_name":"Finance","level":1,"score":0.2646793723106384},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.2625483274459839},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.12411883473396301},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.0975419282913208},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111472728","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9471","display_name":"Epistemology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C78519656","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q101333","display_name":"Mechanical engineering","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127413603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11023","display_name":"Engineering","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151730666","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7205","display_name":"Paleontology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780762169","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5905368","display_name":"Horse","level":2,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86803240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q420","display_name":"Biology","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138885662","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5891","display_name":"Philosophy","level":0,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":4,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1109/access.2019.2921092","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/access.2019.2921092","pdf_url":"https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/ielx7/6287639/8600701/08731844.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2485537415","display_name":"IEEE Access","issn_l":"2169-3536","issn":["2169-3536"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319808","host_organization_name":"Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319808"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"IEEE Access","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:dnet:udimundus___::2399e78fa3a0ddddc7162427127b0d7e","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12226/256","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402641","display_name":"LA Referencia (Red Federada de Repositorios Institucionales de Publicaciones Cient\u00edficas)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I4383465926","host_organization_name":"LA Referencia","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4383465926"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:cf6198aff5ae420b909a378859c7a0d0","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/cf6198aff5ae420b909a378859c7a0d0","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401280","display_name":"DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"IEEE Access, Vol 7, Pp 75177-75188 (2019)","raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:e-archivo.uc3m.es:10016/35522","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10016/35522","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402178","display_name":"e-Archivo (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I50357001","host_organization_name":"Universidad Carlos III de Madrid","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I50357001"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1109/access.2019.2921092","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1109/access.2019.2921092","pdf_url":"https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/ielx7/6287639/8600701/08731844.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2485537415","display_name":"IEEE Access","issn_l":"2169-3536","issn":["2169-3536"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319808","host_organization_name":"Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319808"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"IEEE Access","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G1476310062","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"2013/00199/002","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320323770","funder_display_name":"Universidad Carlos III de Madrid"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320323770","display_name":"Universidad Carlos III de Madrid","ror":"https://ror.org/03ths8210"}],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2948842003.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2948842003.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":56,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W130159071","https://openalex.org/W305595355","https://openalex.org/W1560724230","https://openalex.org/W1576808520","https://openalex.org/W1973861090","https://openalex.org/W1984199597","https://openalex.org/W1993130554","https://openalex.org/W2000090018","https://openalex.org/W2003486631","https://openalex.org/W2007195475","https://openalex.org/W2014417912","https://openalex.org/W2023826935","https://openalex.org/W2040395995","https://openalex.org/W2050997590","https://openalex.org/W2052259854","https://openalex.org/W2069932963","https://openalex.org/W2078237894","https://openalex.org/W2088073011","https://openalex.org/W2101234009","https://openalex.org/W2132286633","https://openalex.org/W2133692974","https://openalex.org/W2142638246","https://openalex.org/W2151554678","https://openalex.org/W2164889348","https://openalex.org/W2166859533","https://openalex.org/W2182051792","https://openalex.org/W2221976759","https://openalex.org/W2395786628","https://openalex.org/W2574706223","https://openalex.org/W2588678570","https://openalex.org/W2752012235","https://openalex.org/W2775379762","https://openalex.org/W2779839332","https://openalex.org/W2793487491","https://openalex.org/W2808626748","https://openalex.org/W2883692332","https://openalex.org/W2890354514","https://openalex.org/W2897309738","https://openalex.org/W2897781255","https://openalex.org/W2900694066","https://openalex.org/W2905054207","https://openalex.org/W3005611601","https://openalex.org/W3022360661","https://openalex.org/W3121132971","https://openalex.org/W3121368516","https://openalex.org/W3123272505","https://openalex.org/W3123320210","https://openalex.org/W3123598380","https://openalex.org/W3124131437","https://openalex.org/W3125659364","https://openalex.org/W4240465782","https://openalex.org/W4254311010","https://openalex.org/W6605225612","https://openalex.org/W6675354045","https://openalex.org/W6683687779","https://openalex.org/W6728637473"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2726467123","https://openalex.org/W2064726690","https://openalex.org/W4252678288","https://openalex.org/W4254065731","https://openalex.org/W1607297154","https://openalex.org/W4210820789","https://openalex.org/W2913177154","https://openalex.org/W4237782192","https://openalex.org/W4294956096","https://openalex.org/W2645942849"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Forecasting":[0],"of":[1,17,31,43,57,60,71,85,92,129,138],"stock":[2],"market":[3],"returns":[4],"is":[5,11],"a":[6,69,107,121,133],"challenging":[7],"research":[8],"activity":[9],"that":[10,103,131],"now":[12],"expanding":[13],"with":[14,89],"the":[15,29,40,44,53,61,66,90,93,106,120],"availability":[16],"new":[18],"data":[19,87,130],"sources,":[20],"markets,":[21],"financial":[22],"instruments,":[23],"and":[24,74,112,141],"algorithms.":[25],"At":[26],"its":[27],"core,":[28],"predictability":[30],"prices":[32,56],"still":[33],"raises":[34],"important":[35],"questions.":[36],"Here,":[37],"we":[38,51],"discuss":[39],"economic":[41,139],"significance":[42],"prediction":[45],"accuracy.":[46],"To":[47],"develop":[48],"this":[49],"question,":[50],"collect":[52],"daily":[54],"series":[55],"almost":[58],"half":[59],"publicly":[62],"traded":[63],"companies":[64],"around":[65],"world":[67],"over":[68],"period":[70],"ten":[72],"years":[73],"formulate":[75],"some":[76,100,126],"trading":[77],"strategies":[78,114],"based":[79],"on":[80],"their":[81],"prediction.":[82],"Proper":[83],"visualization":[84],"these":[86],"together":[88],"use":[91],"No":[94],"Free":[95],"Lunch":[96],"theoretical":[97],"framework":[98],"gives":[99],"unexpected":[101],"results":[102,118],"show":[104],"how":[105],"priori":[108,122],"less":[109],"accurate":[110],"algorithms":[111],"inefficient":[113],"can":[115],"offer":[116],"better":[117],"than":[119],"best":[123],"alternatives":[124],"in":[125,136],"particular":[127],"subsets":[128],"have":[132],"clear":[134],"interpretation":[135],"terms":[137],"sectors":[140],"regions.":[142]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":4}],"updated_date":"2025-11-06T03:46:38.306776","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}
