{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4417082306","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1108/gs-07-2025-0099","title":"Prediction and analysis of global launch vehicle success rates based\u00a0on\u00a0grey system models","display_name":"Prediction and analysis of global launch vehicle success rates based\u00a0on\u00a0grey system models","publication_year":2025,"publication_date":"2025-12-06","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4417082306","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1108/gs-07-2025-0099"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1108/gs-07-2025-0099","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1108/gs-07-2025-0099","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210188239","display_name":"Grey Systems Theory and Application","issn_l":"2043-9377","issn":["2043-9377","2043-9385"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319811","host_organization_name":"Emerald Publishing Limited","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319811"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Emerald Publishing Limited"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Grey Systems: Theory and Application","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":null,"display_name":"Wei Tang","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I17145004","display_name":"Northwestern Polytechnical University","ror":"https://ror.org/01y0j0j86","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I17145004"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I99418890","display_name":"Northwestern Polytechnic University","ror":"https://ror.org/05wn69s11","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I99418890"]}],"countries":["CN","US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Wei Tang","raw_affiliation_strings":["Center for Grey Systems Studies and School of Management, Northwestern Polytechnical University , ,"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Center for Grey Systems Studies and School of Management, Northwestern Polytechnical University , ,","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I17145004","https://openalex.org/I99418890"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5081516030","display_name":"Haifeng Hu","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9447-1481"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I68581759","display_name":"China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/012z62f48","country_code":"CN","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I68581759"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Haifeng Hu","raw_affiliation_strings":["China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology, Beijing Aerospace Automatic Control Research Institute , ,"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology, Beijing Aerospace Automatic Control Research Institute , ,","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I68581759"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5115674500","display_name":"Sifeng Liu","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I17145004","display_name":"Northwestern Polytechnical University","ror":"https://ror.org/01y0j0j86","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I17145004"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I99418890","display_name":"Northwestern Polytechnic University","ror":"https://ror.org/05wn69s11","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I99418890"]}],"countries":["CN","US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Sifeng Liu","raw_affiliation_strings":["Center for Grey Systems Studies and School of Management, Northwestern Polytechnical University , ,"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Center for Grey Systems Studies and School of Management, Northwestern Polytechnical University , ,","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I17145004","https://openalex.org/I99418890"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5101592508","display_name":"Dahai Li","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2382-9917"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210159500","display_name":"Shenzhen Academy of Aerospace Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/05etzsm06","country_code":"CN","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210159500"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Dahai Li","raw_affiliation_strings":["China Academy of Aerospace Liquid Propulsion Technology , ,"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"China Academy of Aerospace Liquid Propulsion Technology , ,","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210159500"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5018915353","display_name":"Huiyong Wang","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5886-9647"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I68581759","display_name":"China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/012z62f48","country_code":"CN","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I68581759"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Huiyong Wang","raw_affiliation_strings":["China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology, Beijing Aerospace Automatic Control Research Institute , ,"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology, Beijing Aerospace Automatic Control Research Institute , ,","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I68581759"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":4,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":1.1442,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":1,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.84583125,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":94,"max":97},"biblio":{"volume":"16","issue":"2","first_page":"346","last_page":"362"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12368","display_name":"Grey System Theory Applications","score":0.2076999992132187,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12368","display_name":"Grey System Theory Applications","score":0.2076999992132187,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T14214","display_name":"Space Exploration and Technology","score":0.06390000134706497,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2202","display_name":"Aerospace Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10780","display_name":"Reliability and Maintenance Optimization","score":0.049400001764297485,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2213","display_name":"Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bottleneck","display_name":"Bottleneck","score":0.7404999732971191},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/space-launch","display_name":"Space launch","score":0.6015999913215637},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/reliability","display_name":"Reliability (semiconductor)","score":0.599399983882904},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/rocket","display_name":"Rocket (weapon)","score":0.4106999933719635},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/fuzzy-logic","display_name":"Fuzzy logic","score":0.4032999873161316},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/process","display_name":"Process (computing)","score":0.36890000104904175}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780513914","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q18210350","display_name":"Bottleneck","level":2,"score":0.7404999732971191},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C832551","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7572593","display_name":"Space launch","level":3,"score":0.6015999913215637},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C43214815","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7310987","display_name":"Reliability (semiconductor)","level":3,"score":0.599399983882904},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127413603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11023","display_name":"Engineering","level":0,"score":0.5113000273704529},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C187878255","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2037215","display_name":"Rocket (weapon)","level":2,"score":0.4106999933719635},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C58166","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q224821","display_name":"Fuzzy logic","level":2,"score":0.4032999873161316},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C42475967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q194292","display_name":"Operations research","level":1,"score":0.36899998784065247},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C98045186","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q205663","display_name":"Process (computing)","level":2,"score":0.36890000104904175},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777061396","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7978064","display_name":"Weapon system","level":2,"score":0.35359999537467957},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C102019270","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q280602","display_name":"Solid-fuel rocket","level":3,"score":0.3513000011444092},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C201995342","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q682496","display_name":"Systems engineering","level":1,"score":0.3321000039577484},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C200601418","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2193887","display_name":"Reliability engineering","level":1,"score":0.3231000006198883},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.29840001463890076},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2984309673","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q697175","display_name":"Launch vehicle","level":2,"score":0.29030001163482666},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C178802073","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8421","display_name":"Aeronautics","level":1,"score":0.28850001096725464},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C204323151","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q905424","display_name":"Range (aeronautics)","level":2,"score":0.28279998898506165},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C42011625","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1055058","display_name":"Fuzzy set","level":3,"score":0.27149999141693115},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C1034443","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2583685","display_name":"Propulsion","level":2,"score":0.259799987077713}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1108/gs-07-2025-0099","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1108/gs-07-2025-0099","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210188239","display_name":"Grey Systems Theory and Application","issn_l":"2043-9377","issn":["2043-9377","2043-9385"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319811","host_organization_name":"Emerald Publishing Limited","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319811"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Emerald Publishing Limited"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Grey Systems: Theory and Application","raw_type":"journal-article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G7160748156","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"G2021181014L","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321540","funder_display_name":"Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G8739484697","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"72071111","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321001","funder_display_name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321001","display_name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","ror":"https://ror.org/01h0zpd94"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321540","display_name":"Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China","ror":"https://ror.org/027s68j25"}],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":11,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1604975429","https://openalex.org/W1978594506","https://openalex.org/W1993926271","https://openalex.org/W2087120645","https://openalex.org/W2111770734","https://openalex.org/W2144625306","https://openalex.org/W2322424520","https://openalex.org/W2605377979","https://openalex.org/W2976593715","https://openalex.org/W4296365943","https://openalex.org/W4405840067"],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Purpose":[0],"The":[1,133,170,187,257,295,476],"purpose":[2],"of":[3,11,30,38,41,49,53,74,90,118,139,190,254,297,306,429,493],"this":[4,167,298,481],"paper":[5,482,501],"is":[6,143,164,193,300,466],"to":[7,23,35,68,112,152,317,374,386,397,405,452,470,486,506],"reveal":[8],"the":[9,27,39,50,69,75,86,102,119,137,154,177,252,304,319,370,377,421,426,484,489,508],"bottleneck":[10,146,305,320,378,509],"reliability":[12,58,87,142,160,188,255,271,307,325,383,394,402,431,492,514],"growth":[13,189,308,384,395,432],"for":[14,243,262,309],"carrier":[15,310],"rockets":[16,311],"by":[17,196,275],"establishing":[18],"different":[19],"grey":[20,115,218,345,534],"system":[21,89,204,219,283,337,346,526,535],"models":[22,117,473],"simulate":[24],"and":[25,56,104,123,130,162,172,221,235,249,266,273,290,312,327,348,366,403,474,491,516,537,555],"predict":[26],"success":[28,107,180],"rate":[29,108,181],"rocket":[31,43],"launches":[32],"worldwide.":[33],"And":[34],"raise":[36],"awareness":[37],"importance":[40],"enhancing":[42],"launch":[44,54,70,95,106,140,158,179,191,269,323,381,400,462,494,512],"reliability.":[45,464],"Design/methodology/approach":[46],"An":[47],"overview":[48],"development":[51],"history":[52],"vehicles":[55,192],"their":[57],"challenges":[59,156],"was":[60,97],"presented":[61],"at":[62],"first.":[63],"Then,":[64],"a":[65,183,240,314,503],"briefly":[66],"introductions":[67],"mission":[71],"assurance":[72],"process":[73],"US":[76,103],"National":[77],"Security":[78],"Space":[79],"Launch":[80],"(NSSL)":[81],"program":[82],"as":[83,85,213,226,228,352,354,361,411,441,541,543,550],"well":[84,227,353,542],"management":[88],"China\u2019s":[91],"Long":[92],"March":[93],"7":[94],"vehicle":[96,141,159,270,324,382,401,463,495,513],"given.":[98],"Based":[99],"on":[100,208],"global,":[101],"Chinese":[105],"data":[109,199,248,279,332,357,422,444,448,521,546],"from":[110,449],"2018":[111],"2024,":[113],"four":[114],"prediction":[116,173],"EGM,":[120],"ODGM,":[121],"EDGM":[122],"DGM":[124],"were":[125],"established,":[126],"yielding":[127],"high-precision":[128],"simulation":[129,171],"forecasting":[131],"results.":[132],"study":[134],"reveals":[135],"that":[136,176,301],"improvement":[138],"facing":[144],"significant":[145],"constraints.":[147],"Finally,":[148],"an":[149,467],"innovative":[150],"approach":[151,316,505],"address":[153],"existing":[155],"in":[157,166,230,268,322,380,461,480,496,511],"analysis":[161,205,234,272,284,289,326,338,365,515,527,554],"evaluation":[163,274],"proposed":[165,313,479],"paper.":[168],"Findings":[169],"outcome":[174],"showed":[175],"global":[178],"had":[182],"slow":[184],"upward":[185],"trend.":[186],"severely":[194],"constrained":[195],"bottlenecks.":[197],"Big":[198],"technologies,":[200,280],"along":[201],"with":[202,334,523],"uncertainty":[203,282,336,525],"methods":[206,339,528],"based":[207],"diverse":[209,335,524],"perspectives":[210],"\u2013":[211,225],"such":[212,360,410,440,549],"probability":[214,341,530],"statistics,":[215,342,531],"fuzzy":[216,343,532],"mathematics,":[217,344,533],"theory":[220,224,347,536],"rough":[222,349,538],"set":[223,350,539],"innovations":[229],"sequence":[231,286,362,551],"operators,":[232,287,363,552],"spectral":[233,288,364,553],"intelligent":[236,291,367,556],"algorithms,":[237],"have":[238],"laid":[239],"solid":[241],"foundation":[242],"effectively":[244],"integrating":[245],"complex":[246,355,544],"uncertain":[247,356,545],"breaking":[250],"through":[251,376,408],"bottlenecks":[253],"modeling.":[256],"conditions":[258,428],"are":[259],"increasingly":[260],"ripe":[261],"exploring":[263],"new":[264,472],"approaches":[265,373],"methodologies":[267],"comprehensively":[276],"leveraging":[277],"big":[278,331,520],"multiple":[281],"methods,":[285],"algorithms.":[292,368,557],"Research":[293],"limitations/implications":[294],"limitation":[296],"research":[299],"it":[302],"revealed":[303],"novel":[315,477,504],"overcome":[318,507],"constraints":[321,379,510],"evaluation,":[328,517],"which":[329,456,518],"integrates":[330,519],"technologies":[333,522],"(including":[340,529],"theory)":[351,540],"fusion":[358,547],"techniques":[359,548],"However,":[369,419],"specific":[371],"methodological":[372],"break":[375],"remain":[385],"be":[387],"further":[388],"investigated.":[389],"Practical":[390],"implications":[391],"Manufacturers":[392],"use":[393],"tests":[396],"iteratively":[398],"improve":[399,488],"performance":[404],"predetermined":[406],"levels":[407],"cycles":[409],"\u201cexposing":[412],"defects\u2014analysing":[413],"causes\u2014improving":[414],"designs,":[415],"processes,":[416],"or":[417,445],"operations.\u201d":[418],"when":[420],"does":[423],"not":[424],"meet":[425],"modeling":[427],"traditional":[430],"models,":[433],"people":[434],"often":[435],"adopt":[436],"some":[437],"\u201cflexible\u201d":[438],"approach,":[439],"using":[442],"simulated":[443],"borrowing":[446],"relevant":[447],"similar":[450],"equipment":[451],"\u201cpiece":[453],"together\u201d":[454],"data,":[455],"may":[457],"bury":[458],"hidden":[459],"dangers":[460],"There":[465],"urgent":[468],"need":[469],"explore":[471],"methods.":[475],"idea":[478],"has":[483],"potential":[485],"significantly":[487],"quality":[490],"smart":[497],"manufacturing.":[498],"Originality/value":[499],"This":[500],"proposes":[502]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-07-22T07:51:19.307946","created_date":"2025-12-06T00:00:00"}