{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2987196201","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jamia/ocz197","title":"Explicit causal reasoning is needed to prevent prognostic models being victims of their own success","display_name":"Explicit causal reasoning is needed to prevent prognostic models being victims of their own success","publication_year":2019,"publication_date":"2019-10-18","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2987196201","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jamia/ocz197","mag":"2987196201","pmid":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31722385"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1093/jamia/ocz197","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jamia/ocz197","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S129839026","display_name":"Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association","issn_l":"1067-5027","issn":["1067-5027","1527-974X"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310311648","host_organization_name":"Oxford University Press","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310311648","https://openalex.org/P4310311647"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Oxford University Press","University of Oxford"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"letter","indexed_in":["crossref","pubmed"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://www.research.manchester.ac.uk/portal/en/publications/explicit-causal-reasoning-is-needed-to-prevent-prognostic-models-being-victims-of-their-own-success(9ee8290d-6c78-4706-b4dc-75a57e5de8df).html","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5009872155","display_name":"Matthew Sperrin","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5351-9960"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I28407311","display_name":"University of Manchester","ror":"https://ror.org/027m9bs27","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I28407311"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I2799725268","display_name":"Manchester Academic Health Science Centre","ror":"https://ror.org/04rrkhs81","country_code":"GB","type":"healthcare","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2799725268"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Matthew Sperrin","raw_affiliation_strings":["Division of Informatics, Imaging and Data Science, Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom","Portsmouth Street, University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL, UK;","Division of Informatics, Imaging and Data Science, Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, University of Manchester, Manches-ter, United Kingdom"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Division of Informatics, Imaging and Data Science, Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I2799725268","https://openalex.org/I28407311"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Portsmouth Street, University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL, UK;","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I28407311"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Division of Informatics, Imaging and Data Science, Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, University of Manchester, Manches-ter, United Kingdom","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I28407311"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5020263487","display_name":"David Jenkins","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6687-3507"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I2799725268","display_name":"Manchester Academic Health Science Centre","ror":"https://ror.org/04rrkhs81","country_code":"GB","type":"healthcare","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2799725268"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I28407311","display_name":"University of Manchester","ror":"https://ror.org/027m9bs27","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I28407311"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"David Jenkins","raw_affiliation_strings":["Division of Informatics, Imaging and Data Science, Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom","Division of Informatics, Imaging and Data Science, Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, University of Manchester, Manches-ter, United Kingdom"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Division of Informatics, Imaging and Data Science, Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I2799725268","https://openalex.org/I28407311"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Division of Informatics, Imaging and Data Science, Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, University of Manchester, Manches-ter, United Kingdom","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I28407311"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5026108472","display_name":"Glen P. Martin","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3410-9472"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I2799725268","display_name":"Manchester Academic Health Science Centre","ror":"https://ror.org/04rrkhs81","country_code":"GB","type":"healthcare","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2799725268"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I28407311","display_name":"University of Manchester","ror":"https://ror.org/027m9bs27","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I28407311"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Glen P Martin","raw_affiliation_strings":["Division of Informatics, Imaging and Data Science, Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom","Division of Informatics, Imaging and Data Science, Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, University of Manchester, Manches-ter, United Kingdom"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Division of Informatics, Imaging and Data Science, Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I2799725268","https://openalex.org/I28407311"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Division of Informatics, Imaging and Data Science, Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, University of Manchester, Manches-ter, United Kingdom","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I28407311"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5059494163","display_name":"Niels Peek","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6393-9969"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I28407311","display_name":"University of Manchester","ror":"https://ror.org/027m9bs27","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I28407311"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I2799725268","display_name":"Manchester Academic Health Science Centre","ror":"https://ror.org/04rrkhs81","country_code":"GB","type":"healthcare","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2799725268"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Niels Peek","raw_affiliation_strings":["Division of Informatics, Imaging and Data Science, Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom","Division of Informatics, Imaging and Data Science, Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, University of Manchester, Manches-ter, United Kingdom"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Division of Informatics, Imaging and Data Science, Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I2799725268","https://openalex.org/I28407311"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Division of Informatics, Imaging and Data Science, Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, University of Manchester, Manches-ter, United Kingdom","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I28407311"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":4,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5009872155"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I2799725268","https://openalex.org/I28407311"],"apc_list":{"value":3967,"currency":"USD","value_usd":3967},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":2.3229,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":33,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.91366482,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":96,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"26","issue":"12","first_page":"1675","last_page":"1676"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13702","display_name":"Machine Learning in Healthcare","score":0.9959999918937683,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13702","display_name":"Machine Learning in Healthcare","score":0.9959999918937683,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11710","display_name":"Biomedical Text Mining and Ontologies","score":0.979200005531311,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1312","display_name":"Molecular Biology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/13","display_name":"Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/1","display_name":"Life Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12574","display_name":"Clinical Reasoning and Diagnostic Skills","score":0.9469000101089478,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2714","display_name":"Family Practice"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/causal-reasoning","display_name":"Causal reasoning","score":0.5247440934181213},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.4509803056716919},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/psychology","display_name":"Psychology","score":0.3695472478866577},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/cognitive-psychology","display_name":"Cognitive psychology","score":0.3292592465877533},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/cognition","display_name":"Cognition","score":0.2094065546989441},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/psychiatry","display_name":"Psychiatry","score":0.1744421124458313}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C115086926","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q17004651","display_name":"Causal reasoning","level":3,"score":0.5247440934181213},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.4509803056716919},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.3695472478866577},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C180747234","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23373","display_name":"Cognitive psychology","level":1,"score":0.3292592465877533},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C169900460","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2200417","display_name":"Cognition","level":2,"score":0.2094065546989441},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C118552586","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7867","display_name":"Psychiatry","level":1,"score":0.1744421124458313}],"mesh":[{"descriptor_ui":"D003071","descriptor_name":"Cognition","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D003071","descriptor_name":"Cognition","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D003071","descriptor_name":"Cognition","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D011340","descriptor_name":"Problem Solving","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D011340","descriptor_name":"Problem Solving","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D011340","descriptor_name":"Problem Solving","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D011379","descriptor_name":"Prognosis","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D011379","descriptor_name":"Prognosis","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D011379","descriptor_name":"Prognosis","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false}],"locations_count":5,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1093/jamia/ocz197","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jamia/ocz197","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S129839026","display_name":"Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association","issn_l":"1067-5027","issn":["1067-5027","1527-974X"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310311648","host_organization_name":"Oxford University Press","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310311648","https://openalex.org/P4310311647"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Oxford University Press","University of Oxford"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmid:31722385","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31722385","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525036","display_name":"PubMed","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association : JAMIA","raw_type":null},{"id":"pmh:oai:europepmc.org:5825953","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/6857504","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400806","display_name":"Europe PMC (PubMed Central)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1303153112","host_organization_name":"European Bioinformatics Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1303153112"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Text"},{"id":"pmh:oai:pure.atira.dk:openaire/9ee8290d-6c78-4706-b4dc-75a57e5de8df","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://research.manchester.ac.uk/en/publications/9ee8290d-6c78-4706-b4dc-75a57e5de8df","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400662","display_name":"Research Explorer (The University of Manchester)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I28407311","host_organization_name":"University of Manchester","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I28407311"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Sperrin, M, Jenkins, D, Martin, G P & Peek, N 2019, 'Explicit causal reasoning is needed to prevent prognostic models being victims of their own success', Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association : JAMIA, vol. 26, no. 12, pp. 1675-1676. https://doi.org/10.1093/jamia/ocz197","raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:pure.atira.dk:publications/9ee8290d-6c78-4706-b4dc-75a57e5de8df","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://www.research.manchester.ac.uk/portal/en/publications/explicit-causal-reasoning-is-needed-to-prevent-prognostic-models-being-victims-of-their-own-success(9ee8290d-6c78-4706-b4dc-75a57e5de8df).html","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400662","display_name":"Research Explorer (The University of Manchester)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I28407311","host_organization_name":"University of Manchester","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I28407311"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-nc","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Sperrin, M, Jenkins, D, Martin, G P & Peek, N 2019, 'Explicit causal reasoning is needed to prevent prognostic models being victims of their own success', Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association : JAMIA, vol. 26, no. 12, pp. 1675-1676. https://doi.org/10.1093/jamia/ocz197","raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:pure.atira.dk:publications/9ee8290d-6c78-4706-b4dc-75a57e5de8df","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://www.research.manchester.ac.uk/portal/en/publications/explicit-causal-reasoning-is-needed-to-prevent-prognostic-models-being-victims-of-their-own-success(9ee8290d-6c78-4706-b4dc-75a57e5de8df).html","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400662","display_name":"Research Explorer (The University of Manchester)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I28407311","host_organization_name":"University of Manchester","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I28407311"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-nc","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Sperrin, M, Jenkins, D, Martin, G P & Peek, N 2019, 'Explicit causal reasoning is needed to prevent prognostic models being victims of their own success', Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association : JAMIA, vol. 26, no. 12, pp. 1675-1676. https://doi.org/10.1093/jamia/ocz197","raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/5","score":0.7599999904632568,"display_name":"Gender equality"}],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G342746720","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"EP/P010148/1","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334627","funder_display_name":"Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334627","display_name":"Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council","ror":"https://ror.org/0439y7842"}],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":5,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W2404373658","https://openalex.org/W2901689923","https://openalex.org/W2962811743","https://openalex.org/W2970567995","https://openalex.org/W2972207715"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2899084033","https://openalex.org/W2748952813","https://openalex.org/W2390279801","https://openalex.org/W2358668433","https://openalex.org/W2376932109","https://openalex.org/W2382290278","https://openalex.org/W2350741829","https://openalex.org/W2130043461","https://openalex.org/W2765338310","https://openalex.org/W2202315113"],"abstract_inverted_index":null,"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":8},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":3}],"updated_date":"2026-05-11T08:15:01.531666","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}