{"id":"https://openalex.org/W3005754092","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1080/15472450.2020.1725887","title":"On the tradeoff between sensitivity and specificity in bus bunching prediction","display_name":"On the tradeoff between sensitivity and specificity in bus bunching prediction","publication_year":2020,"publication_date":"2020-02-13","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W3005754092","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1080/15472450.2020.1725887","mag":"3005754092"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1080/15472450.2020.1725887","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1080/15472450.2020.1725887","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S172631016","display_name":"Journal of Intelligent Transportation Systems","issn_l":"1547-2442","issn":["1547-2442","1547-2450"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320547","host_organization_name":"Taylor & Francis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320547"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Taylor & Francis"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of Intelligent Transportation Systems","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://repository.kulib.kyoto-u.ac.jp/dspace/bitstream/2433/269552/1/15472450.2020.1725887.pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5009270642","display_name":"Wenzhe Sun","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7305-8671"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I22299242","display_name":"Kyoto University","ror":"https://ror.org/02kpeqv85","country_code":"JP","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I22299242"]}],"countries":["JP"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Wenzhe Sun","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Urban Management, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7305-8671","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Urban Management, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I22299242"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5068750994","display_name":"Jan\u2010Dirk Schm\u00f6cker","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2219-9447"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I22299242","display_name":"Kyoto University","ror":"https://ror.org/02kpeqv85","country_code":"JP","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I22299242"]}],"countries":["JP"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Jan-Dirk Schm\u00f6cker","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Urban Management, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2219-9447","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Urban Management, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I22299242"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5022154058","display_name":"Toshiyuki Nakamura","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3093-4229"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I60134161","display_name":"Nagoya University","ror":"https://ror.org/04chrp450","country_code":"JP","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I60134161"]}],"countries":["JP"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Toshiyuki Nakamura","raw_affiliation_strings":["Institute of Innovation for Future Society, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3093-4229","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Institute of Innovation for Future Society, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I60134161"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":3,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5068750994"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I22299242"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":1.8538,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":7,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.8718355,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":90,"max":96},"biblio":{"volume":"25","issue":"4","first_page":"384","last_page":"400"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10698","display_name":"Transportation Planning and Optimization","score":0.9998999834060669,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3313","display_name":"Transportation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10698","display_name":"Transportation Planning and Optimization","score":0.9998999834060669,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3313","display_name":"Transportation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11344","display_name":"Traffic Prediction and Management Techniques","score":0.9998000264167786,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2215","display_name":"Building and Construction"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10524","display_name":"Traffic control and management","score":0.9941999912261963,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2207","display_name":"Control and Systems Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/headway","display_name":"Headway","score":0.8404691219329834},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probabilistic-logic","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","score":0.627047061920166},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/sensitivity","display_name":"Sensitivity (control systems)","score":0.6127736568450928},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/reliability","display_name":"Reliability (semiconductor)","score":0.5848198533058167},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/operator","display_name":"Operator (biology)","score":0.51472407579422},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.4619491696357727},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/range","display_name":"Range (aeronautics)","score":0.44856521487236023},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/time-horizon","display_name":"Time horizon","score":0.44638654589653015},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/sliding-window-protocol","display_name":"Sliding window protocol","score":0.41582682728767395},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/simulation","display_name":"Simulation","score":0.3196394443511963},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/engineering","display_name":"Engineering","score":0.31341299414634705},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematical-optimization","display_name":"Mathematical optimization","score":0.3095766603946686},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.23898577690124512},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/artificial-intelligence","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","score":0.13594627380371094}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779240695","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4383682","display_name":"Headway","level":2,"score":0.8404691219329834},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49937458","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2599292","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","level":2,"score":0.627047061920166},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C21200559","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7451068","display_name":"Sensitivity (control systems)","level":2,"score":0.6127736568450928},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C43214815","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7310987","display_name":"Reliability (semiconductor)","level":3,"score":0.5848198533058167},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17020691","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q139677","display_name":"Operator (biology)","level":5,"score":0.51472407579422},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.4619491696357727},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C204323151","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q905424","display_name":"Range (aeronautics)","level":2,"score":0.44856521487236023},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C28761237","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7805321","display_name":"Time horizon","level":2,"score":0.44638654589653015},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C102392041","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q592860","display_name":"Sliding window protocol","level":3,"score":0.41582682728767395},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C44154836","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q45045","display_name":"Simulation","level":1,"score":0.3196394443511963},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127413603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11023","display_name":"Engineering","level":0,"score":0.31341299414634705},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126255220","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q141495","display_name":"Mathematical optimization","level":1,"score":0.3095766603946686},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.23898577690124512},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.13594627380371094},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C24326235","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q126095","display_name":"Electronic engineering","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C158448853","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q425218","display_name":"Repressor","level":4,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C146978453","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3798668","display_name":"Aerospace engineering","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86339819","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q407384","display_name":"Transcription factor","level":3,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C62520636","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q944","display_name":"Quantum mechanics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C185592680","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2329","display_name":"Chemistry","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C163258240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25342","display_name":"Power (physics)","level":2,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111919701","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9135","display_name":"Operating system","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C104317684","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7187","display_name":"Gene","level":2,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C55493867","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7094","display_name":"Biochemistry","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778751112","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q835016","display_name":"Window (computing)","level":2,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1080/15472450.2020.1725887","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1080/15472450.2020.1725887","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S172631016","display_name":"Journal of Intelligent Transportation Systems","issn_l":"1547-2442","issn":["1547-2442","1547-2450"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320547","host_organization_name":"Taylor & Francis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320547"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Taylor & Francis"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of Intelligent Transportation Systems","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:repository.kulib.kyoto-u.ac.jp:2433/269552","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/2433/269552","pdf_url":"https://repository.kulib.kyoto-u.ac.jp/dspace/bitstream/2433/269552/1/15472450.2020.1725887.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401454","display_name":"Kyoto University Research Information Repository (Kyoto University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I22299242","host_organization_name":"Kyoto University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I22299242"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"journal article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:repository.kulib.kyoto-u.ac.jp:2433/269552","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/2433/269552","pdf_url":"https://repository.kulib.kyoto-u.ac.jp/dspace/bitstream/2433/269552/1/15472450.2020.1725887.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401454","display_name":"Kyoto University Research Information Repository (Kyoto University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I22299242","host_organization_name":"Kyoto University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I22299242"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"journal article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/11","score":0.6399999856948853,"display_name":"Sustainable cities and communities"}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W3005754092.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W3005754092.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":29,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W598095728","https://openalex.org/W1974488516","https://openalex.org/W1988056000","https://openalex.org/W2034628819","https://openalex.org/W2039559615","https://openalex.org/W2055237722","https://openalex.org/W2071277963","https://openalex.org/W2082280406","https://openalex.org/W2089577733","https://openalex.org/W2090672779","https://openalex.org/W2099488522","https://openalex.org/W2125990328","https://openalex.org/W2158994553","https://openalex.org/W2175821123","https://openalex.org/W2190439575","https://openalex.org/W2254213553","https://openalex.org/W2472567412","https://openalex.org/W2486819139","https://openalex.org/W2527649204","https://openalex.org/W2553526105","https://openalex.org/W2729922683","https://openalex.org/W2735824523","https://openalex.org/W2747500309","https://openalex.org/W2770104456","https://openalex.org/W2790301888","https://openalex.org/W2896426875","https://openalex.org/W2902306928","https://openalex.org/W3124062964","https://openalex.org/W3125937743"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W1990084320","https://openalex.org/W3011309105","https://openalex.org/W2363400661","https://openalex.org/W2051775676","https://openalex.org/W2140196366","https://openalex.org/W44667219","https://openalex.org/W4313172028","https://openalex.org/W2345649773","https://openalex.org/W2926218886","https://openalex.org/W2150076039"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Bus":[0],"bunching":[1,130,179],"resulting":[2],"from":[3],"initially":[4],"small":[5],"headway":[6,31],"irregularities":[7],"is":[8,98,131,173,188,199,206],"a":[9,48,57,66,70,101,165],"widely-known":[10],"and":[11,29,117],"studied":[12],"problem.":[13],"A":[14,95],"variety":[15],"of":[16,37,78,124,176,184,191],"headway-prediction":[17],"approaches,":[18],"as":[19,21],"well":[20],"corrective":[22],"strategies,":[23],"have":[24],"been":[25],"developed":[26],"to":[27,52,85,90,109,150],"identify":[28],"correct":[30,192],"irregularity":[32],"in":[33,105,128,142],"real":[34],"time.":[35],"Instead":[36],"predicting":[38],"an":[39],"exact":[40],"value":[41],"for":[42,87,148],"future":[43],"headways,":[44],"this":[45],"study":[46,97],"explores":[47],"probabilistic":[49],"predictive":[50],"methodology":[51],"forecast":[53],"whether":[54],"or":[55],"not":[56],"bus":[58,103],"will":[59],"be":[60],"bunched":[61],"during":[62],"its":[63],"dwelling":[64],"at":[65,80,181],"downstream":[67],"stop,":[68],"using":[69,114],"logistic":[71],"regression":[72,116],"model":[73],"based":[74],"on":[75,100],"GPS":[76],"records":[77],"buses":[79],"least":[81],"k":[82],"stops":[83],"upstream":[84],"allow":[86],"sufficient":[88],"time":[89,147],"possibly":[91],"implement":[92],"control":[93],"strategies.":[94],"case":[96],"conducted":[99],"circular":[102],"route":[104],"Kyoto":[106],"City.":[107],"Compared":[108],"two":[110],"headway-based":[111],"prediction":[112,144,204],"approaches":[113],"linear":[115],"support":[118],"vector":[119],"machine,":[120],"the":[121,125,154,174,182,189,203],"superior":[122],"performance":[123],"proposed":[126,155],"tool":[127],"detecting":[129],"illustrated":[132],"by":[133],"Receiver":[134],"Operator":[135],"Characteristic":[136],"(ROC)":[137],"analysis.":[138],"The":[139],"high":[140],"reliability":[141],"long-term":[143],"gives":[145],"adequate":[146],"operators":[149,158],"employ":[151],"countermeasures.":[152],"Besides,":[153],"method":[156],"provides":[157],"with":[159],"tradeoff":[160],"options.":[161],"We":[162],"find":[163],"that":[164,172],"bunching-averse":[166],"operator":[167],"can":[168],"obtain":[169],"95%":[170],"\u201csensitivity\u201d,":[171],"ratio":[175,190],"correctly":[177],"identified":[178],"events,":[180],"cost":[183],"decreasing":[185],"\u201cspecificity\u201d,":[186],"which":[187],"non-bunching":[193],"predictions":[194],"over":[195],"all":[196],"events.":[197],"This":[198],"true":[200],"even":[201],"if":[202],"horizon":[205],"more":[207],"than":[208],"10":[209],"stops.":[210]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":2}],"updated_date":"2025-11-06T03:46:38.306776","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}