{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4400606041","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01605682.2024.2376050","title":"On the forecasting performance of small-scale DGSE models: a Monte Carlo evaluation and an application to UK","display_name":"On the forecasting performance of small-scale DGSE models: a Monte Carlo evaluation and an application to UK","publication_year":2024,"publication_date":"2024-07-13","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4400606041","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01605682.2024.2376050"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1080/01605682.2024.2376050","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01605682.2024.2376050","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S169988927","display_name":"Journal of the Operational Research Society","issn_l":"0160-5682","issn":["0160-5682","1476-9360"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319703","host_organization_name":"Palgrave Macmillan","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319703","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Palgrave Macmillan","Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of the Operational Research Society","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://hdl.handle.net/11573/1714151","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5104125489","display_name":"Giovanni Angelini","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I9360294","display_name":"University of Bologna","ror":"https://ror.org/01111rn36","country_code":"IT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I9360294"]}],"countries":["IT"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Giovanni Angelini","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I9360294"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5079839515","display_name":"Mauro Costantini","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6991-5159"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I861853513","display_name":"Sapienza University of Rome","ror":"https://ror.org/02be6w209","country_code":"IT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I861853513"]}],"countries":["IT"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Mauro Costantini","raw_affiliation_strings":["Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I861853513"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5104125489"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I9360294"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.18805808,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":"1","last_page":"13"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10007","display_name":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","score":0.998199999332428,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10007","display_name":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","score":0.998199999332428,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11052","display_name":"Energy Load and Power Forecasting","score":0.9671000242233276,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2208","display_name":"Electrical and Electronic Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10632","display_name":"Housing Market and Economics","score":0.9620000123977661,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/monte-carlo-method","display_name":"Monte Carlo method","score":0.7625997066497803},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/scale","display_name":"Scale (ratio)","score":0.5419841408729553},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.5127075910568237},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/operations-research","display_name":"Operations research","score":0.44396695494651794},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/project-management","display_name":"Project management","score":0.4375409185886383},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/econometrics","display_name":"Econometrics","score":0.3818701505661011},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/statistics","display_name":"Statistics","score":0.23333251476287842},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/engineering","display_name":"Engineering","score":0.1742095947265625},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/systems-engineering","display_name":"Systems engineering","score":0.1483050286769867},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/economics","display_name":"Economics","score":0.1354803740978241},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.12973850965499878},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/geography","display_name":"Geography","score":0.10007107257843018},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/cartography","display_name":"Cartography","score":0.06663867831230164}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C19499675","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q232207","display_name":"Monte Carlo method","level":2,"score":0.7625997066497803},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778755073","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q10858537","display_name":"Scale (ratio)","level":2,"score":0.5419841408729553},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.5127075910568237},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C42475967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q194292","display_name":"Operations research","level":1,"score":0.44396695494651794},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15952604","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q179012","display_name":"Project management","level":2,"score":0.4375409185886383},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.3818701505661011},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.23333251476287842},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127413603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11023","display_name":"Engineering","level":0,"score":0.1742095947265625},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C201995342","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q682496","display_name":"Systems engineering","level":1,"score":0.1483050286769867},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.1354803740978241},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.12973850965499878},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.10007107257843018},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C58640448","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q42515","display_name":"Cartography","level":1,"score":0.06663867831230164}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1080/01605682.2024.2376050","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01605682.2024.2376050","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S169988927","display_name":"Journal of the Operational Research Society","issn_l":"0160-5682","issn":["0160-5682","1476-9360"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319703","host_organization_name":"Palgrave Macmillan","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319703","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Palgrave Macmillan","Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of the Operational Research Society","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:taf:tjorxx:v:76:y:2025:i:3:p:554-566","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/01605682.2024.2376050","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:iris.uniroma1.it:11573/1714151","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://hdl.handle.net/11573/1714151","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4377196107","display_name":"IRIS Research product catalog (Sapienza University of Rome)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:iris.uniroma1.it:11573/1714151","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://hdl.handle.net/11573/1714151","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4377196107","display_name":"IRIS Research product catalog (Sapienza University of Rome)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":46,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1588300322","https://openalex.org/W1969998320","https://openalex.org/W1988608305","https://openalex.org/W1995684847","https://openalex.org/W2003759958","https://openalex.org/W2006823991","https://openalex.org/W2021862238","https://openalex.org/W2022189875","https://openalex.org/W2044281534","https://openalex.org/W2056186894","https://openalex.org/W2077517951","https://openalex.org/W2089713694","https://openalex.org/W2098806386","https://openalex.org/W2102260339","https://openalex.org/W2113456190","https://openalex.org/W2136993807","https://openalex.org/W2192136531","https://openalex.org/W2218914395","https://openalex.org/W2236378571","https://openalex.org/W2266131264","https://openalex.org/W2300215694","https://openalex.org/W2331931357","https://openalex.org/W2763560379","https://openalex.org/W2883227393","https://openalex.org/W2905284366","https://openalex.org/W2908988324","https://openalex.org/W3021318637","https://openalex.org/W3021617193","https://openalex.org/W3021811462","https://openalex.org/W3023315607","https://openalex.org/W3123527282","https://openalex.org/W3123970111","https://openalex.org/W3124765495","https://openalex.org/W3125112512","https://openalex.org/W3125162238","https://openalex.org/W3130453397","https://openalex.org/W3173442547","https://openalex.org/W3216454943","https://openalex.org/W4205942264","https://openalex.org/W4294643517","https://openalex.org/W4306155178","https://openalex.org/W4387212035","https://openalex.org/W4390753196","https://openalex.org/W4390843733","https://openalex.org/W4392867627","https://openalex.org/W6672897342"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2393870460","https://openalex.org/W2254578859","https://openalex.org/W4284894156","https://openalex.org/W2161803855","https://openalex.org/W3110774753","https://openalex.org/W2003709529","https://openalex.org/W1967535915","https://openalex.org/W4255189751","https://openalex.org/W2082287905","https://openalex.org/W2048036273"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"This":[0],"article":[1,20],"investigates":[2],"the":[3,28,31,72,92,112,116],"forecasting":[4],"performance":[5,90],"of":[6,30,64,91],"a":[7,23,39,45,88],"new":[8,32,93,113],"small-scale":[9],"dynamic":[10],"stochastic":[11],"general":[12],"equilibrium":[13],"(DSGE)":[14],"model.":[15],"To":[16],"this":[17,19],"end,":[18],"first":[21],"conducts":[22],"Monte":[24],"Carlo":[25],"study":[26],"for":[27,79,95,99],"evaluation":[29],"model":[33,37,94,114],"against":[34],"another":[35],"DSGE":[36],",":[38],"standard":[40],"vector":[41],"autoregression":[42],"(VAR),":[43],"and":[44,53,68,81,115],"Bayesian":[46],"VAR,":[47],"using":[48],"root":[49,100],"mean":[50,101],"square":[51,102],"error":[52],"directional":[54,96],"accuracy":[55,97],"measures.":[56],"An":[57],"empirical":[58,85],"application":[59],"to":[60],"UK":[61],"quarterly":[62],"data":[63],"output":[65],"gap,":[66],"inflation,":[67],"interest":[69],"rates":[70],"over":[71],"period":[73],"1986\u20132019":[74],"is":[75],"also":[76],"carried":[77],"out":[78],"point":[80],"density":[82,105],"forecasts.":[83],"The":[84],"findings":[86],"unveil":[87],"better":[89],"than":[98],"error,":[103],"while":[104],"forecasts":[106],"indicate":[107],"no":[108],"statistical":[109],"differences":[110],"among":[111],"VAR":[117],"models.":[118]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-06-14T06:11:07.267592","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}