{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4293349030","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01605682.2022.2115411","title":"Probabilistic load forecasting using post-processed weather ensemble predictions","display_name":"Probabilistic load forecasting using post-processed weather ensemble predictions","publication_year":2022,"publication_date":"2022-08-27","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4293349030","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01605682.2022.2115411"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1080/01605682.2022.2115411","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01605682.2022.2115411","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S169988927","display_name":"Journal of the Operational Research Society","issn_l":"0160-5682","issn":["0160-5682","1476-9360"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319703","host_organization_name":"Palgrave Macmillan","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319703","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Palgrave Macmillan","Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of the Operational Research Society","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://figshare.com/articles/journal_contribution/Probabilistic_load_forecasting_using_post-processed_weather_ensemble_predictions/20683462","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5081705123","display_name":"Nicole Ludwig","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3230-8918"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I102335020","display_name":"Karlsruhe Institute of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/04t3en479","country_code":"DE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I102335020","https://openalex.org/I1305996414"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I8087733","display_name":"University of T\u00fcbingen","ror":"https://ror.org/03a1kwz48","country_code":"DE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I8087733"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Nicole Ludwig","raw_affiliation_strings":["Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany","University of T\u00fcbingen, T\u00fcbingen, Germany"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3230-8918","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I102335020"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of T\u00fcbingen, T\u00fcbingen, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I8087733"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5023923887","display_name":"Siddharth Arora","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6499-6941"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I40120149","display_name":"University of Oxford","ror":"https://ror.org/052gg0110","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I40120149"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Siddharth Arora","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Oxford, Oxford, UK"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Oxford, Oxford, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I40120149"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5112221171","display_name":"James W. Taylor","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7580-800X"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I40120149","display_name":"University of Oxford","ror":"https://ror.org/052gg0110","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I40120149"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"James W. Taylor","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Oxford, Oxford, UK"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Oxford, Oxford, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I40120149"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":3,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5081705123"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I102335020","https://openalex.org/I8087733"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":0.6464,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":10,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.66676128,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":94,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"74","issue":"3","first_page":"1008","last_page":"1020"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11052","display_name":"Energy Load and Power Forecasting","score":0.9995999932289124,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2208","display_name":"Electrical and Electronic Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11052","display_name":"Energy Load and Power Forecasting","score":0.9995999932289124,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2208","display_name":"Electrical and Electronic Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10466","display_name":"Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations","score":0.9937999844551086,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1902","display_name":"Atmospheric Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11186","display_name":"Hydrology and Drought Analysis","score":0.9937999844551086,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probabilistic-forecasting","display_name":"Probabilistic forecasting","score":0.8440831899642944},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/ensemble-forecasting","display_name":"Ensemble forecasting","score":0.7043591737747192},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/north-american-mesoscale-model","display_name":"North American Mesoscale Model","score":0.6532662510871887},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/copula","display_name":"Copula (linguistics)","score":0.6372829675674438},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probabilistic-logic","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","score":0.6057026982307434},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.5903345942497253},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/weather-forecasting","display_name":"Weather forecasting","score":0.4452659487724304},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/range","display_name":"Range (aeronautics)","score":0.4189833700656891},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/meteorology","display_name":"Meteorology","score":0.3761320114135742},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/numerical-weather-prediction","display_name":"Numerical weather prediction","score":0.32433509826660156},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/econometrics","display_name":"Econometrics","score":0.258730947971344},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/machine-learning","display_name":"Machine learning","score":0.2123868763446808},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/artificial-intelligence","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","score":0.2057805061340332},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/global-forecast-system","display_name":"Global Forecast System","score":0.13682156801223755},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.12373313307762146},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/engineering","display_name":"Engineering","score":0.1203673779964447}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C122282355","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7246855","display_name":"Probabilistic forecasting","level":3,"score":0.8440831899642944},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119898033","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3433888","display_name":"Ensemble forecasting","level":2,"score":0.7043591737747192},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C197661373","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7053811","display_name":"North American Mesoscale Model","level":4,"score":0.6532662510871887},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17618745","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q207509","display_name":"Copula (linguistics)","level":2,"score":0.6372829675674438},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49937458","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2599292","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","level":2,"score":0.6057026982307434},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.5903345942497253},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C21001229","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q182868","display_name":"Weather forecasting","level":2,"score":0.4452659487724304},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C204323151","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q905424","display_name":"Range (aeronautics)","level":2,"score":0.4189833700656891},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C153294291","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25261","display_name":"Meteorology","level":1,"score":0.3761320114135742},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C147947694","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q837552","display_name":"Numerical weather prediction","level":2,"score":0.32433509826660156},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.258730947971344},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.2123868763446808},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.2057805061340332},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C163109420","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q287011","display_name":"Global Forecast System","level":3,"score":0.13682156801223755},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.12373313307762146},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127413603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11023","display_name":"Engineering","level":0,"score":0.1203673779964447},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C146978453","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3798668","display_name":"Aerospace engineering","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":5,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1080/01605682.2022.2115411","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01605682.2022.2115411","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S169988927","display_name":"Journal of the Operational Research Society","issn_l":"0160-5682","issn":["0160-5682","1476-9360"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319703","host_organization_name":"Palgrave Macmillan","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319703","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Palgrave Macmillan","Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of the Operational Research Society","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:taf:tjorxx:v:74:y:2023:i:3:p:1008-1020","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/01605682.2022.2115411","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:figshare.com:article/20683462","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://figshare.com/articles/journal_contribution/Probabilistic_load_forecasting_using_post-processed_weather_ensemble_predictions/20683462","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4377196282","display_name":"Figshare","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I4210132348","host_organization_name":"Figshare (United Kingdom)","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210132348"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"Text"},{"id":"pmh:oai:ora.ox.ac.uk:uuid:c4d76c24-d3f7-4119-92e7-9abbb10e3658","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:c4d76c24-d3f7-4119-92e7-9abbb10e3658","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402636","display_name":"Oxford University Research Archive (ORA) (University of Oxford)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I40120149","host_organization_name":"University of Oxford","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I40120149"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Symplectic Elements","raw_type":"Journal article"},{"id":"doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.20683462.v1","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.20683462.v1","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4377196282","display_name":"Figshare","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I4210132348","host_organization_name":"Figshare (United Kingdom)","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210132348"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":null,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article-journal"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:figshare.com:article/20683462","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://figshare.com/articles/journal_contribution/Probabilistic_load_forecasting_using_post-processed_weather_ensemble_predictions/20683462","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4377196282","display_name":"Figshare","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I4210132348","host_organization_name":"Figshare (United Kingdom)","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210132348"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"Text"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"display_name":"Affordable and clean energy","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/7","score":0.7599999904632568}],"awards":[],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320320879","display_name":"Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft","ror":"https://ror.org/018mejw64"}],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":53,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1554944419","https://openalex.org/W1789155650","https://openalex.org/W1948435599","https://openalex.org/W1973778471","https://openalex.org/W1976255336","https://openalex.org/W1978969592","https://openalex.org/W1985643209","https://openalex.org/W2020078097","https://openalex.org/W2055208896","https://openalex.org/W2059610755","https://openalex.org/W2065089656","https://openalex.org/W2075795701","https://openalex.org/W2091244280","https://openalex.org/W2095845042","https://openalex.org/W2097804995","https://openalex.org/W2127813995","https://openalex.org/W2129651074","https://openalex.org/W2130715829","https://openalex.org/W2135046866","https://openalex.org/W2137342998","https://openalex.org/W2147975952","https://openalex.org/W2156636680","https://openalex.org/W2158271991","https://openalex.org/W2158840489","https://openalex.org/W2159613153","https://openalex.org/W2175794424","https://openalex.org/W2176194411","https://openalex.org/W2241204288","https://openalex.org/W2312234235","https://openalex.org/W2481365208","https://openalex.org/W2498829915","https://openalex.org/W2553848975","https://openalex.org/W2563452632","https://openalex.org/W2566102230","https://openalex.org/W2596223166","https://openalex.org/W2607419240","https://openalex.org/W2625224297","https://openalex.org/W2790964730","https://openalex.org/W2795649788","https://openalex.org/W2883144926","https://openalex.org/W2888584141","https://openalex.org/W2911349806","https://openalex.org/W2963653111","https://openalex.org/W2981640012","https://openalex.org/W3000358280","https://openalex.org/W3008226355","https://openalex.org/W3038250173","https://openalex.org/W3105578061","https://openalex.org/W4213041519","https://openalex.org/W4230839549","https://openalex.org/W4248109090","https://openalex.org/W4291327732","https://openalex.org/W6782019268"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2137007565","https://openalex.org/W4248085828","https://openalex.org/W4293349030","https://openalex.org/W2321020009","https://openalex.org/W2070671604","https://openalex.org/W4385749727","https://openalex.org/W2921756899","https://openalex.org/W3199136095","https://openalex.org/W4309030289","https://openalex.org/W2901316757"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Probabilistic":[0],"forecasting":[1],"of":[2,12,20,90,124],"electricity":[3],"demand":[4],"(load)":[5],"facilitates":[6],"the":[7,30,46,50,56,103,117,122,155,178,197],"efficient":[8],"management":[9],"and":[10,112,150,157],"operations":[11],"energy":[13],"systems.":[14],"Weather":[15],"is":[16,27,60],"a":[17,88,95],"key":[18],"determinant":[19],"load.":[21],"However,":[22],"modelling":[23],"load":[24,44,57,67,134,198],"using":[25,49,71],"weather":[26,53,72,85,96,106,125,182,185],"challenging":[28],"because":[29],"relationship":[31],"cannot":[32],"be":[33,36,110],"assumed":[34],"to":[35,80,109,146,162,177],"linear.":[37],"Although":[38],"numerous":[39],"studies":[40],"have":[41],"focussed":[42],"on":[43,48],"forecasting,":[45],"literature":[47],"uncertainty":[51],"in":[52],"while":[54],"estimating":[55],"probability":[58],"distribution":[59],"scarce.":[61],"In":[62],"this":[63],"study,":[64],"we":[65],"model":[66,143],"for":[68,75,94,132,148],"Great":[69],"Britain":[70],"ensemble":[73,86,142,159,191],"predictions,":[74],"lead":[76],"times":[77],"from":[78,105],"one":[79],"six":[81],"days":[82],"ahead.":[83],"A":[84],"comprises":[87],"range":[89],"plausible":[91],"future":[92],"scenarios":[93,169],"variable.":[97],"It":[98],"has":[99,127],"been":[100,130],"shown":[101],"that":[102,116,164],"ensembles":[104,118,126,138,165,186,189],"models":[107],"tend":[108],"biased":[111],"underdispersed,":[113],"which":[114],"requires":[115],"are":[119,194],"post-processed.":[120],"Surprisingly,":[121],"post-processing":[123],"not":[128],"yet":[129],"employed":[131],"probabilistic":[133],"forecasting.":[135],"We":[136],"post-process":[137],"based":[139],"on:":[140],"(1)":[141],"output":[144],"statistics:":[145],"correct":[147],"bias":[149],"dispersion":[151],"errors":[152],"by":[153],"calibrating":[154],"ensembles,":[156],"(2)":[158],"copula":[160,192],"coupling:":[161],"ensure":[163],"remain":[166],"physically":[167],"consistent":[168],"after":[170],"calibration.":[171],"The":[172],"proposed":[173],"approach":[174],"compares":[175],"favourably":[176],"case":[179],"when":[180],"no":[181],"information,":[183],"raw":[184],"or":[187],"post-processed":[188],"without":[190],"coupling":[193],"used":[195],"during":[196],"modelling.":[199]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":2}],"updated_date":"2026-05-19T08:33:51.333923","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}