{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2995190342","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01605682.2019.1700767","title":"Mapping conditional scenarios for knowledge structuring in (tail) dependence elicitation","display_name":"Mapping conditional scenarios for knowledge structuring in (tail) dependence elicitation","publication_year":2020,"publication_date":"2020-02-06","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2995190342","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01605682.2019.1700767","mag":"2995190342"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1080/01605682.2019.1700767","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01605682.2019.1700767","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S169988927","display_name":"Journal of the Operational Research Society","issn_l":"0160-5682","issn":["0160-5682","1476-9360"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319703","host_organization_name":"Palgrave Macmillan","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319703","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Palgrave Macmillan","Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of the Operational Research Society","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5103015493","display_name":"Christoph Werner","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9250-4529"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I181647926","display_name":"University of Strathclyde","ror":"https://ror.org/00n3w3b69","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I181647926"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Christoph Werner","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Management Science, University of Strathclyde","Department of Management Science, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Management Science, University of Strathclyde","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I181647926"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Management Science, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I181647926"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5039846042","display_name":"Tim Bedford","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3545-2088"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I181647926","display_name":"University of Strathclyde","ror":"https://ror.org/00n3w3b69","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I181647926"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Tim Bedford","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Management Science, University of Strathclyde","Department of Management Science, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Management Science, University of Strathclyde","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I181647926"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Management Science, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I181647926"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5109239333","display_name":"John M. Quigley","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I181647926","display_name":"University of Strathclyde","ror":"https://ror.org/00n3w3b69","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I181647926"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"John Quigley","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Management Science, University of Strathclyde","Department of Management Science, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Management Science, University of Strathclyde","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I181647926"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Management Science, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I181647926"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":3,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5103015493"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I181647926"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":0.5571,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":5,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.69963349,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":90,"max":95},"biblio":{"volume":"72","issue":"4","first_page":"889","last_page":"907"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11810","display_name":"Complex Systems and Decision Making","score":0.9977999925613403,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11810","display_name":"Complex Systems and Decision Making","score":0.9977999925613403,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12000","display_name":"Systems Engineering Methodologies and Applications","score":0.9682999849319458,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2207","display_name":"Control and Systems Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11195","display_name":"Simulation Techniques and Applications","score":0.9279999732971191,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/structuring","display_name":"Structuring","score":0.8550037145614624},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.5744218230247498},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/project-management","display_name":"Project management","score":0.4716421961784363},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/operations-research","display_name":"Operations research","score":0.39245373010635376},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/econometrics","display_name":"Econometrics","score":0.36223697662353516},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/management-science","display_name":"Management science","score":0.32165539264678955},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.25975194573402405},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/business","display_name":"Business","score":0.15930065512657166},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/economics","display_name":"Economics","score":0.13734489679336548},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/management","display_name":"Management","score":0.09471097588539124}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2775945657","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q381442","display_name":"Structuring","level":2,"score":0.8550037145614624},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.5744218230247498},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15952604","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q179012","display_name":"Project management","level":2,"score":0.4716421961784363},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C42475967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q194292","display_name":"Operations research","level":1,"score":0.39245373010635376},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.36223697662353516},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C539667460","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2414942","display_name":"Management science","level":1,"score":0.32165539264678955},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.25975194573402405},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144133560","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4830453","display_name":"Business","level":0,"score":0.15930065512657166},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.13734489679336548},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C187736073","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2920921","display_name":"Management","level":1,"score":0.09471097588539124},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C10138342","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q43015","display_name":"Finance","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1080/01605682.2019.1700767","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01605682.2019.1700767","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S169988927","display_name":"Journal of the Operational Research Society","issn_l":"0160-5682","issn":["0160-5682","1476-9360"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319703","host_organization_name":"Palgrave Macmillan","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319703","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Palgrave Macmillan","Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of the Operational Research Society","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:strathprints.strath.ac.uk:70817","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/view/author/860319.html>","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402226","display_name":"Strathprints: The University of Strathclyde institutional repository (University of Strathclyde)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I181647926","host_organization_name":"University of Strathclyde","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I181647926"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"PeerReviewed"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:taf:tjorxx:v:72:y:2021:i:4:p:889-907","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/01605682.2019.1700767","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/16","score":0.6600000262260437,"display_name":"Peace, Justice and strong institutions"}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":80,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W35220292","https://openalex.org/W79746132","https://openalex.org/W390686421","https://openalex.org/W592733562","https://openalex.org/W1533879000","https://openalex.org/W1761926372","https://openalex.org/W1843246605","https://openalex.org/W1938241794","https://openalex.org/W1969248194","https://openalex.org/W1971074578","https://openalex.org/W1971091947","https://openalex.org/W1974559974","https://openalex.org/W1985823566","https://openalex.org/W1993533690","https://openalex.org/W1996340773","https://openalex.org/W2004390872","https://openalex.org/W2018527020","https://openalex.org/W2024989079","https://openalex.org/W2026889774","https://openalex.org/W2038017082","https://openalex.org/W2040090261","https://openalex.org/W2040530961","https://openalex.org/W2042303854","https://openalex.org/W2049119587","https://openalex.org/W2051619469","https://openalex.org/W2052321998","https://openalex.org/W2053945117","https://openalex.org/W2055614993","https://openalex.org/W2061535067","https://openalex.org/W2065637266","https://openalex.org/W2065854499","https://openalex.org/W2066050380","https://openalex.org/W2068883935","https://openalex.org/W2079535371","https://openalex.org/W2085158667","https://openalex.org/W2087698439","https://openalex.org/W2087753005","https://openalex.org/W2092966136","https://openalex.org/W2103089703","https://openalex.org/W2114307208","https://openalex.org/W2116854224","https://openalex.org/W2119592579","https://openalex.org/W2123885031","https://openalex.org/W2131615471","https://openalex.org/W2143749597","https://openalex.org/W2144732858","https://openalex.org/W2147704565","https://openalex.org/W2156188040","https://openalex.org/W2159080219","https://openalex.org/W2160338793","https://openalex.org/W2161905785","https://openalex.org/W2162942990","https://openalex.org/W2344676987","https://openalex.org/W2346457370","https://openalex.org/W2400069463","https://openalex.org/W2412630099","https://openalex.org/W2470151867","https://openalex.org/W2493732967","https://openalex.org/W2536732006","https://openalex.org/W2729147228","https://openalex.org/W2752222069","https://openalex.org/W2768901977","https://openalex.org/W2781956702","https://openalex.org/W2885344137","https://openalex.org/W2913758949","https://openalex.org/W2914789322","https://openalex.org/W2926847651","https://openalex.org/W2982292104","https://openalex.org/W3159971645","https://openalex.org/W4206801130","https://openalex.org/W4211112466","https://openalex.org/W4236707022","https://openalex.org/W4238625289","https://openalex.org/W4239225676","https://openalex.org/W4241940494","https://openalex.org/W4249101137","https://openalex.org/W4250884815","https://openalex.org/W4293872935","https://openalex.org/W4300215003","https://openalex.org/W4388156124"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2020270379","https://openalex.org/W2123032225","https://openalex.org/W2029737671","https://openalex.org/W2008127713","https://openalex.org/W4236331402","https://openalex.org/W2166012575","https://openalex.org/W1971498384","https://openalex.org/W2340407408","https://openalex.org/W2050280581","https://openalex.org/W2080623758"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"In":[0,59,142],"decision":[1],"and":[2,25,53,108],"risk":[3,121],"analysis":[4,122],"together":[5],"with":[6],"operational":[7],"research":[8,79],"methods,":[9],"probabilistic":[10],"modelling":[11],"of":[12,83,128,157,165],"uncertainties":[13,20],"provides":[14],"essential":[15],"information":[16,64],"for":[17,51,71,99,161],"decision-makers.":[18],"As":[19],"are":[21,31,40,57],"typically":[22],"not":[23,33],"isolated":[24],"simplifying":[26],"assumptions":[27],"(such":[28],"as":[29],"independence)":[30],"often":[32],"justifiable,":[34],"methods":[35],"that":[36,47,131,153],"model":[37,56,160],"their":[38],"dependence":[39,63,73,87,137],"being":[41],"developed.":[42],"A":[43],"common":[44],"challenge":[45],"is":[46,74,97],"relevant":[48],"historical":[49],"data":[50],"specifying":[52],"quantifying":[54],"a":[55,91,119,158],"lacking.":[58],"this":[60],"case,":[61],"the":[62,81,103,155,162,166],"should":[65],"be":[66],"elicited":[67],"from":[68],"experts.":[69],"Guidance":[70],"eliciting":[72],"sparse":[75],"whereas":[76],"particularly":[77],"little":[78],"addresses":[80],"structuring":[82],"experts\u2019":[84,133],"knowledge":[85,134],"about":[86,135],"relationships":[88],"prior":[89,138],"to":[90,139,149],"quantitative":[92,159],"elicitation.":[93],"However,":[94],"such":[95],"preparation":[96],"crucial":[98],"developing":[100],"confidence":[101],"in":[102],"resulting":[104],"judgements,":[105],"mitigating":[106],"biases":[107],"ensuring":[109],"transparency,":[110],"especially":[111],"when":[112],"assessing":[113],"tail":[114],"dependence.":[115],"Therefore,":[116],"we":[117,146],"introduce":[118],"qualitative":[120],"method":[123],"based":[124],"on":[125],"our":[126],"definition":[127],"conditional":[129,151],"scenarios":[130,152],"structures":[132],"(tail)":[136],"its":[140],"assessment.":[141],"an":[143],"illustrative":[144],"example,":[145],"show":[147],"how":[148],"elicit":[150],"support":[154],"assessment":[156],"complex":[163],"risks":[164],"UK":[167],"higher":[168],"education":[169],"sector.":[170]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-04-05T17:49:38.594831","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}