{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4220698985","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00207543.2022.2048114","title":"Exponential smoothing forecasts: taming the bullwhip effect when demand is seasonal","display_name":"Exponential smoothing forecasts: taming the bullwhip effect when demand is seasonal","publication_year":2022,"publication_date":"2022-03-17","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4220698985","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00207543.2022.2048114"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1080/00207543.2022.2048114","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00207543.2022.2048114","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S65690446","display_name":"International Journal of Production Research","issn_l":"0020-7543","issn":["0020-7543","1366-588X"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320547","host_organization_name":"Taylor & Francis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320547","https://openalex.org/P4310320449"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Taylor & Francis","Informa"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"International Journal of Production Research","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://research.tilburguniversity.edu/en/publications/8fca6329-83b9-4a49-a2aa-e4e959d4f761","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5058172231","display_name":"Maximiliano Udenio","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2971-2795"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I99464096","display_name":"KU Leuven","ror":"https://ror.org/05f950310","country_code":"BE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I99464096"]}],"countries":["BE"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Maximiliano Udenio","raw_affiliation_strings":["Faculty of Economics and Business, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2971-2795","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Faculty of Economics and Business, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I99464096"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5081697986","display_name":"Eleni Vatamidou","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7942-7677"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I97565354","display_name":"University of Lausanne","ror":"https://ror.org/019whta54","country_code":"CH","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I97565354"]}],"countries":["CH"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Eleni Vatamidou","raw_affiliation_strings":["The Faculty of Business and Economics, University of Lausanne, Quartier UNIL-Chamberonne B\u00e2timent Extranef, Lausanne, Switzerland"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7942-7677","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"The Faculty of Business and Economics, University of Lausanne, Quartier UNIL-Chamberonne B\u00e2timent Extranef, Lausanne, Switzerland","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I97565354"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5058712643","display_name":"Jan C. Fransoo","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7220-0851"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I193700539","display_name":"Tilburg University","ror":"https://ror.org/04b8v1s79","country_code":"NL","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I193700539"]}],"countries":["NL"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Jan C. Fransoo","raw_affiliation_strings":["Tilburg University, Tilburg, The Netherlands"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7220-0851","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Tilburg University, Tilburg, The Netherlands","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I193700539"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":3,"institutions_distinct_count":3,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5058172231"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I99464096"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":3.3878,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":24,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.92470202,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"61","issue":"6","first_page":"1796","last_page":"1813"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.9970999956130981,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.9970999956130981,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10328","display_name":"Supply Chain and Inventory Management","score":0.9764000177383423,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1404","display_name":"Management Information Systems"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/14","display_name":"Business, Management and Accounting"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10007","display_name":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","score":0.9740999937057495,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/exponential-smoothing","display_name":"Exponential smoothing","score":0.9508005380630493},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/smoothing","display_name":"Smoothing","score":0.7468224763870239},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/econometrics","display_name":"Econometrics","score":0.6303440928459167},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/moving-average","display_name":"Moving average","score":0.4605172872543335},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.43336406350135803},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/exponential-function","display_name":"Exponential function","score":0.4174915850162506},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematical-optimization","display_name":"Mathematical optimization","score":0.32774627208709717},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.2909374237060547},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/statistics","display_name":"Statistics","score":0.25771546363830566}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C133710760","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q775837","display_name":"Exponential smoothing","level":2,"score":0.9508005380630493},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3770464","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q775963","display_name":"Smoothing","level":2,"score":0.7468224763870239},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.6303440928459167},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C175706884","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1130194","display_name":"Moving average","level":2,"score":0.4605172872543335},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.43336406350135803},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151376022","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q168698","display_name":"Exponential function","level":2,"score":0.4174915850162506},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126255220","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q141495","display_name":"Mathematical optimization","level":1,"score":0.32774627208709717},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.2909374237060547},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.25771546363830566},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C134306372","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7754","display_name":"Mathematical analysis","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":5,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1080/00207543.2022.2048114","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00207543.2022.2048114","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S65690446","display_name":"International Journal of Production Research","issn_l":"0020-7543","issn":["0020-7543","1366-588X"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320547","host_organization_name":"Taylor & Francis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320547","https://openalex.org/P4310320449"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Taylor & Francis","Informa"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"International Journal of Production Research","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:tilburguniversity.edu:openaire/8fca6329-83b9-4a49-a2aa-e4e959d4f761","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://research.tilburguniversity.edu/en/publications/8fca6329-83b9-4a49-a2aa-e4e959d4f761","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401490","display_name":"Research portal (Tilburg University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I193700539","host_organization_name":"Tilburg University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I193700539"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"other-oa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/other-oa","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Udenio, M, Vatamidou, E & Fransoo, J C 2023, 'Exponential smoothing forecasts: Taming the Bullwhip Effect when demand is seasonal', International Journal of Production Research, vol. 61, no. 6, pp. 1796-1813. https://doi.org/10.1080/00207543.2022.2048114","raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:lirias2repo.kuleuven.be:20.500.12942/690590","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://lirias.kuleuven.be/bitstream/20.500.12942/690590/2/3Ple_smoothing_paper_R4.pdf","pdf_url":"https://lirias.kuleuven.be/retrieve/3f8de214-76d2-4c6e-8325-73391925dedf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S7407055369","display_name":"Lirias","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"other-oa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/other-oa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"International Journal Of Production Research, vol. 61 (6)","raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:tiu:tiutis:8fca6329-83b9-4a49-a2aa-e4e959d4f761","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://repository.tilburguniversity.edu/bitstreams/d26f797f-2349-48ee-813e-ae83cf9551c7/download","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"preprint"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:taf:tprsxx:v:61:y:2023:i:6:p:1796-1813","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00207543.2022.2048114","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:tilburguniversity.edu:openaire/8fca6329-83b9-4a49-a2aa-e4e959d4f761","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://research.tilburguniversity.edu/en/publications/8fca6329-83b9-4a49-a2aa-e4e959d4f761","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401490","display_name":"Research portal (Tilburg University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I193700539","host_organization_name":"Tilburg University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I193700539"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"other-oa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/other-oa","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Udenio, M, Vatamidou, E & Fransoo, J C 2023, 'Exponential smoothing forecasts: Taming the Bullwhip Effect when demand is seasonal', International Journal of Production Research, vol. 61, no. 6, pp. 1796-1813. https://doi.org/10.1080/00207543.2022.2048114","raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":38,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1676099465","https://openalex.org/W1965159052","https://openalex.org/W1979847684","https://openalex.org/W1985453523","https://openalex.org/W1989280111","https://openalex.org/W1991037522","https://openalex.org/W1991082419","https://openalex.org/W2008798826","https://openalex.org/W2009266728","https://openalex.org/W2025347948","https://openalex.org/W2026640838","https://openalex.org/W2027505908","https://openalex.org/W2028016181","https://openalex.org/W2029284194","https://openalex.org/W2039400833","https://openalex.org/W2078309311","https://openalex.org/W2082436586","https://openalex.org/W2093317531","https://openalex.org/W2097091525","https://openalex.org/W2106937514","https://openalex.org/W2144293364","https://openalex.org/W2145118875","https://openalex.org/W2154326182","https://openalex.org/W2159491823","https://openalex.org/W2162174678","https://openalex.org/W2217863243","https://openalex.org/W2321029100","https://openalex.org/W2559914213","https://openalex.org/W2610722638","https://openalex.org/W2787034450","https://openalex.org/W2792716176","https://openalex.org/W2811507150","https://openalex.org/W3179887429","https://openalex.org/W3183269782","https://openalex.org/W3201545571","https://openalex.org/W3212246118","https://openalex.org/W4206173445","https://openalex.org/W4230410911"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2093101924","https://openalex.org/W2407609464","https://openalex.org/W2134809837","https://openalex.org/W4312379118","https://openalex.org/W4318938704","https://openalex.org/W4250171642","https://openalex.org/W3119788896","https://openalex.org/W2745480945","https://openalex.org/W1025381345","https://openalex.org/W2023729971"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"In":[0,30,120],"this":[1],"paper,":[2],"we":[3,32,98],"study":[4],"the":[5,13,63,70,84,88,102,110,113,117,122,130,137,148,164,177,189],"influence":[6],"of":[7,15,87,112,152,171,180],"seasonal":[8,39,66,89,123,155],"demands":[9],"and":[10,48,133,161,191],"forecasts":[11],"on":[12,42,163],"performance":[14,51,111,179],"an":[16,53],"Automatic":[17],"Pipeline,":[18],"Variable":[19],"Inventory,":[20],"Order-Based,":[21],"Production":[22],"Control":[23],"System":[24],"(APVIOBPCS)":[25],"using":[26,56],"linear":[27],"control":[28],"theory.":[29],"particular,":[31],"consider":[33],"a":[34,38,43,154,168],"system":[35,55,64,71,114],"that":[36,62,101,147],"uses":[37],"forecast":[40,85,103],"based":[41],"no-trend,":[44],"additive-seasonality":[45],"exponential-smoothing":[46],"model,":[47],"compare":[49],"its":[50,186],"to":[52,94,109,129],"equivalent":[54],"simple":[57,73,138,181],"exponential":[58,74,139,182],"smoothing.":[59],"We":[60],"find":[61,100],"with":[65,72],"forecasting":[67,124,156],"significantly":[68],"outperforms":[69],"smoothing":[75,134,140,183],"under":[76,167],"certain":[77],"demand":[78,131],"assumptions.":[79],"With":[80],"optimal":[81],"parameter":[82],"settings,":[83],"error":[86],"model":[90,125,141,157],"can":[91],"be":[92],"up":[93],"40%":[95],"lower.":[96],"However,":[97],"also":[99],"superiority":[104],"does":[105],"not":[106,159],"necessarily":[107],"translate":[108],"measured":[115],"through":[116],"bullwhip":[118],"metrics.":[119],"addition,":[121],"is":[126,142],"very":[127,143],"sensitive":[128],"frequency":[132],"parameters,":[135],"while":[136],"robust.":[144],"This":[145],"implies":[146],"real":[149],"life":[150],"benefits":[151],"implementing":[153],"are":[158],"obvious":[160],"depend":[162],"particular":[165],"situation;":[166],"large":[169],"number":[170],"settings":[172],"(e.g.":[173],"low":[174],"seasonality,":[175],"high-smoothing),":[176],"good":[178],"certainly":[184],"justifies":[185],"popularity":[187],"in":[188],"industry":[190],"research":[192],"worlds":[193],"alike.":[194]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-08-25T07:29:55.448023","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}
