{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4315641606","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00029890.2022.2160069","title":"Gambling Under Unknown Probabilities as Proxy for Real World Decisions Under Uncertainty","display_name":"Gambling Under Unknown Probabilities as Proxy for Real World Decisions Under Uncertainty","publication_year":2023,"publication_date":"2023-01-11","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4315641606","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00029890.2022.2160069"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1080/00029890.2022.2160069","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00029890.2022.2160069","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S156280010","display_name":"American Mathematical Monthly","issn_l":"0002-9890","issn":["0002-9890","1930-0972"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320547","host_organization_name":"Taylor & Francis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320547"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Taylor & Francis"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"The American Mathematical Monthly","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/368376/3/Aldous-Bruss-ULB.pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5083558768","display_name":"David Aldous","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7793-2357"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I95457486","display_name":"University of California, Berkeley","ror":"https://ror.org/01an7q238","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I95457486"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"David J. Aldous","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Statistics, University of California at Berkeley;"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Statistics, University of California at Berkeley;","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I95457486"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5072341563","display_name":"F. Thomas Bruss","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5394-8730"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I132053463","display_name":"Universit\u00e9 Libre de Bruxelles","ror":"https://ror.org/01r9htc13","country_code":"BE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I132053463"]}],"countries":["BE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"F. Thomas Bruss","raw_affiliation_strings":["Facult\u00e9 des Sciences, Universit\u00e9 Libre de Bruxelles"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Facult\u00e9 des Sciences, Universit\u00e9 Libre de Bruxelles","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I132053463"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5083558768"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I95457486"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":1.0794,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":2,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.86916703,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":94,"max":96},"biblio":{"volume":"130","issue":"4","first_page":"303","last_page":"320"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11674","display_name":"Sports Analytics and Performance","score":0.9901999831199646,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11674","display_name":"Sports Analytics and Performance","score":0.9901999831199646,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12101","display_name":"Advanced Bandit Algorithms Research","score":0.9769999980926514,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10315","display_name":"Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics","score":0.9717000126838684,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1800","display_name":"General Decision Sciences"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/proxy","display_name":"Proxy (statistics)","score":0.7833549976348877},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/econometrics","display_name":"Econometrics","score":0.41808587312698364},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematical-economics","display_name":"Mathematical economics","score":0.37756848335266113},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/statistics","display_name":"Statistics","score":0.3633410930633545},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.3569698929786682}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780148112","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1432581","display_name":"Proxy (statistics)","level":2,"score":0.7833549976348877},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.41808587312698364},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144237770","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q747534","display_name":"Mathematical economics","level":1,"score":0.37756848335266113},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.3633410930633545},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.3569698929786682}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1080/00029890.2022.2160069","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00029890.2022.2160069","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S156280010","display_name":"American Mathematical Monthly","issn_l":"0002-9890","issn":["0002-9890","1930-0972"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320547","host_organization_name":"Taylor & Francis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320547"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Taylor & Francis"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"The American Mathematical Monthly","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/368376","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/368376","pdf_url":"https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/368376/3/Aldous-Bruss-ULB.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401063","display_name":"D\u00e9p\u00f4t institutionnel de l'Universit\u00e9 libre de Bruxelles (Universit\u00e9 Libre de Bruxelles)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I132053463","host_organization_name":"Universit\u00e9 Libre de Bruxelles","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I132053463"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"other-oa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/other-oa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"The American mathematical monthly, 130 (4","raw_type":"info:ulb-repo/semantics/openurl/article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:escholarship.org:ark:/13030/qt88j869mt","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://escholarship.org/uc/item/88j869mt","pdf_url":"https://escholarship.org/content/qt88j869mt/qt88j869mt.pdf?t=rsydek","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400115","display_name":"eScholarship (California Digital Library)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I2801248553","host_organization_name":"California Digital Library","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2801248553"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"American Mathematical Monthly, vol 130, iss 4","raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/368376","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/368376","pdf_url":"https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/368376/3/Aldous-Bruss-ULB.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401063","display_name":"D\u00e9p\u00f4t institutionnel de l'Universit\u00e9 libre de Bruxelles (Universit\u00e9 Libre de Bruxelles)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I132053463","host_organization_name":"Universit\u00e9 Libre de Bruxelles","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I132053463"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"other-oa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/other-oa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"The American mathematical monthly, 130 (4","raw_type":"info:ulb-repo/semantics/openurl/article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4315641606.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4315641606.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":24,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W199690121","https://openalex.org/W1492264672","https://openalex.org/W1570963478","https://openalex.org/W1980620433","https://openalex.org/W1988520084","https://openalex.org/W1996859119","https://openalex.org/W2049808822","https://openalex.org/W2139891288","https://openalex.org/W2160554939","https://openalex.org/W2492831235","https://openalex.org/W2762018414","https://openalex.org/W2767091268","https://openalex.org/W2802966486","https://openalex.org/W2962816176","https://openalex.org/W2962900631","https://openalex.org/W3121231812","https://openalex.org/W3199569758","https://openalex.org/W4205412017","https://openalex.org/W4210669552","https://openalex.org/W4238367216","https://openalex.org/W4239266748","https://openalex.org/W4244280774","https://openalex.org/W4255572858","https://openalex.org/W6759914562"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W1592683135","https://openalex.org/W3121970370","https://openalex.org/W1587230072","https://openalex.org/W2043099224","https://openalex.org/W3037784022","https://openalex.org/W4229963900","https://openalex.org/W2330407128","https://openalex.org/W2040248213","https://openalex.org/W2067341816","https://openalex.org/W2969635709"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"The":[0,56],"subject":[1],"of":[2,65,99,146],"decisions":[3,47],"under":[4,48],"uncertainty":[5,49],"about":[6],"future":[7],"events,":[8],"if":[9],"lacking":[10],"sufficient":[11],"theory":[12],"or":[13],"data":[14],"to":[15,32,70,104],"make":[16],"confident":[17],"probability":[18],"assessments,":[19],"poses":[20],"a":[21,43,66],"challenge":[22],"for":[23,45],"any":[24],"quantitative":[25],"analysis.":[26],"This":[27],"article":[28,141],"suggests":[29],"one":[30,94],"way":[31],"first":[33],"look":[34],"at":[35,127,151],"this":[36,92],"subject.":[37],"We":[38],"give":[39],"elementary":[40],"examples":[41],"within":[42],"framework":[44,93],"studying":[46],"where":[50],"probabilities":[51,86,129],"are":[52,124,138],"only":[53],"roughly":[54],"known.":[55],"framework,":[57],"in":[58,83,110],"gambling":[59],"terms,":[60],"is":[61,68,87,142],"that":[62,109],"the":[63,71,97,106,147,152],"size":[64],"bet":[67],"proportional":[69],"gambler\u2019s":[72],"perceived":[73,78,120],"advantage":[74],"based":[75],"on":[76,118],"their":[77,81,119],"probability,":[79],"and":[80,102],"accuracy":[82],"estimating":[84,128],"true":[85],"measured":[88],"by":[89],"mean-squared-error.":[90],"Within":[91],"can":[95],"study":[96],"cost":[98],"estimation":[100],"errors,":[101],"seek":[103],"formalize":[105],"\u201cobvious\u201d":[107],"notion":[108],"competitive":[111],"interactions":[112],"between":[113],"agents":[114],"whose":[115],"actions":[116],"depend":[117],"probabilities,":[121],"those":[122,136],"who":[123,137],"more":[125,133],"accurate":[126],"will":[130],"generally":[131],"be":[132],"successful":[134],"than":[135],"less":[139],"accurate.This":[140],"an":[143],"extended":[144],"version":[145],"Brouwer":[148],"Medal":[149],"talk":[150],"2021":[153],"Nederlands":[154],"Mathematisch":[155],"Congres.":[156]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":2}],"updated_date":"2026-06-23T13:55:30.953635","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}
