{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2095088298","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602204","title":"A lognormal approximation of activity duration in PERT using two time estimates","display_name":"A lognormal approximation of activity duration in PERT using two time estimates","publication_year":2006,"publication_date":"2006-05-06","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2095088298","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602204","mag":"2095088298"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602204","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602204","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S169988927","display_name":"Journal of the Operational Research Society","issn_l":"0160-5682","issn":["0160-5682","1476-9360"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319703","host_organization_name":"Palgrave Macmillan","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319703","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Palgrave Macmillan","Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of the Operational Research Society","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5111752943","display_name":"Srimathy Mohan","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I55732556","display_name":"Arizona State University","ror":"https://ror.org/03efmqc40","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I55732556"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"S Mohan","raw_affiliation_strings":["Arizona State University Phoenix AZ USA"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Arizona State University Phoenix AZ USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I55732556"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5101729170","display_name":"M. Gopalakrishnan","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I55732556","display_name":"Arizona State University","ror":"https://ror.org/03efmqc40","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I55732556"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"M Gopalakrishnan","raw_affiliation_strings":["Arizona State University Phoenix AZ USA"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Arizona State University Phoenix AZ USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I55732556"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5102814231","display_name":"Hari Balasubramanian","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1955-732X"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I55732556","display_name":"Arizona State University","ror":"https://ror.org/03efmqc40","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I55732556"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"H Balasubramanian","raw_affiliation_strings":["Arizona State University Tempe AZ USA"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Arizona State University Tempe AZ USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I55732556"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5062342289","display_name":"Ashok Chandrashekar","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0007-1914-8354"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1341412227","display_name":"IBM (United States)","ror":"https://ror.org/05hh8d621","country_code":"US","type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1341412227"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"A Chandrashekar","raw_affiliation_strings":["AXP Project Center of Excellence, IBM Corporation Phoenix AZ USA"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"AXP Project Center of Excellence, IBM Corporation Phoenix AZ USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1341412227"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":4,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5101729170","https://openalex.org/A5111752943"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I55732556"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":44,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.18188615,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"58","issue":"6","first_page":"827","last_page":"831"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10395","display_name":"Construction Project Management and Performance","score":0.9952999949455261,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10395","display_name":"Construction Project Management and Performance","score":0.9952999949455261,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12177","display_name":"Resource-Constrained Project Scheduling","score":0.9934999942779541,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11006","display_name":"BIM and Construction Integration","score":0.9894999861717224,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2215","display_name":"Building and Construction"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/log-normal-distribution","display_name":"Log-normal distribution","score":0.8425822257995605},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/variance","display_name":"Variance (accounting)","score":0.5416262149810791},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.4617365300655365},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/statistics","display_name":"Statistics","score":0.42796629667282104},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/duration","display_name":"Duration (music)","score":0.4215225279331207},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematical-optimization","display_name":"Mathematical optimization","score":0.41289815306663513},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.39030495285987854},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/econometrics","display_name":"Econometrics","score":0.37161755561828613},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/economics","display_name":"Economics","score":0.09962242841720581}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151620405","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q826116","display_name":"Log-normal distribution","level":2,"score":0.8425822257995605},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C196083921","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7915758","display_name":"Variance (accounting)","level":2,"score":0.5416262149810791},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.4617365300655365},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.42796629667282104},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C112758219","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q16038819","display_name":"Duration (music)","level":2,"score":0.4215225279331207},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126255220","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q141495","display_name":"Mathematical optimization","level":1,"score":0.41289815306663513},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.39030495285987854},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.37161755561828613},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.09962242841720581},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C142362112","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q735","display_name":"Art","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C124952713","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8242","display_name":"Literature","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121955636","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4116214","display_name":"Accounting","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602204","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602204","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S169988927","display_name":"Journal of the Operational Research Society","issn_l":"0160-5682","issn":["0160-5682","1476-9360"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319703","host_organization_name":"Palgrave Macmillan","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319703","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Palgrave Macmillan","Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of the Operational Research Society","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:58:y:2007:i:6:d:10.1057_palgrave.jors.2602204","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://link.springer.com/10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602204","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":12,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1527091195","https://openalex.org/W1555155702","https://openalex.org/W1968698701","https://openalex.org/W1968984064","https://openalex.org/W1971520355","https://openalex.org/W1997806784","https://openalex.org/W2029526780","https://openalex.org/W2039421108","https://openalex.org/W2077151163","https://openalex.org/W2085757315","https://openalex.org/W2094906341","https://openalex.org/W2132833993"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2348837382","https://openalex.org/W746329893","https://openalex.org/W4205872570","https://openalex.org/W4245971243","https://openalex.org/W2493033802","https://openalex.org/W1922805944","https://openalex.org/W4253588120","https://openalex.org/W2383732295","https://openalex.org/W4248716494","https://openalex.org/W3098004296"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"The":[0],"success":[1],"behind":[2],"effective":[3],"project":[4],"management":[5],"lies":[6],"in":[7],"estimating":[8],"the":[9,25,44,72,77,100,104,107,128,135,139],"time":[10,36,57,66,79],"for":[11,82],"individual":[12],"activities.":[13],"In":[14,22,47,85],"many":[15],"cases,":[16],"these":[17],"activity":[18,141],"times":[19],"are":[20,39,143],"non-deterministic.":[21],"such":[23],"situations,":[24],"conventional":[26,136],"method":[27,92,122,137],"(project":[28],"evaluation":[29],"and":[30,68,80,102,115],"review":[31],"technique":[32],"(PERT))":[33],"obtains":[34],"three":[35,55],"estimates,":[37],"which":[38],"then":[40],"used":[41],"to":[42,53,75,118],"calculate":[43],"expected":[45,78],"time.":[46,109],"practice,":[48],"it":[49],"is":[50,123],"often":[51],"difficult":[52],"get":[54],"accurate":[56],"estimates.":[58],"A":[59],"recent":[60],"paper":[61],"suggests":[62],"using":[63],"just":[64],"two":[65,96],"estimates":[67],"an":[69,90],"approximation":[70,114],"of":[71,98],"normal":[73,129],"distribution":[74],"obtain":[76],"variance":[81],"that":[83,93,120],"activity.":[84],"this":[86],"paper,":[87],"we":[88],"propose":[89],"alternate":[91],"uses":[94],"only":[95,125],"bits":[97],"information:":[99],"most-likely":[101],"either":[103],"optimistic":[105],"or":[106,145],"pessimistic":[108],"We":[110],"use":[111],"a":[112],"lognormal":[113],"experimental":[116],"results":[117],"show":[119],"our":[121],"not":[124],"better":[126,133],"than":[127,134],"approximation,":[130],"but":[131],"also":[132],"when":[138],"underlying":[140],"distributions":[142],"moderately":[144],"heavily":[146],"right":[147],"skewed.":[148]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2012,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2025-11-06T03:46:38.306776","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}
