{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7160946952","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2026.112864","title":"Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling of Arctic maritime incidents with integrated nested Laplace approximation","display_name":"Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling of Arctic maritime incidents with integrated nested Laplace approximation","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-05-12","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7160946952","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2026.112864"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1016/j.ress.2026.112864","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2026.112864","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S202403813","display_name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","issn_l":"0951-8320","issn":["0951-8320","1879-0836"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320990","host_organization_name":"Elsevier BV","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Elsevier BV"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5135920699","display_name":"Yun Ye","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3346-4640"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I109935558","display_name":"Ningbo University","ror":"https://ror.org/03et85d35","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I109935558"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I45129253","display_name":"University College London","ror":"https://ror.org/02jx3x895","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I124357947","https://openalex.org/I45129253"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I76569877","display_name":"Southeast University","ror":"https://ror.org/04ct4d772","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I76569877"]}],"countries":["CN","GB"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Yun Ye","raw_affiliation_strings":["Collaborative Innovation Center of Modern Urban Traffic Technologies, Southeast University, Nanjing, China","Faculty of Maritime and Transportation, Ningbo University, Ningbo, China","SpaceTimeLab, Department of Civil, Environmental and Geomatic Engineering, University College London, London, United Kingdom"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3346-4640","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Collaborative Innovation Center of Modern Urban Traffic Technologies, Southeast University, Nanjing, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I76569877"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Faculty of Maritime and Transportation, Ningbo University, Ningbo, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I109935558"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"SpaceTimeLab, Department of Civil, Environmental and Geomatic Engineering, University College London, London, United Kingdom","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I45129253"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5135966806","display_name":"Mingzheng Liu","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0003-0351-5579"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I109935558","display_name":"Ningbo University","ror":"https://ror.org/03et85d35","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I109935558"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I76569877","display_name":"Southeast University","ror":"https://ror.org/04ct4d772","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I76569877"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Mingzheng Liu","raw_affiliation_strings":["Collaborative Innovation Center of Modern Urban Traffic Technologies, Southeast University, Nanjing, China","Faculty of Maritime and Transportation, Ningbo University, Ningbo, China"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0003-0351-5579","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Collaborative Innovation Center of Modern Urban Traffic Technologies, Southeast University, Nanjing, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I76569877"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Faculty of Maritime and Transportation, Ningbo University, Ningbo, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I109935558"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5135956030","display_name":"Jiao Liu","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6861-2984"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I109935558","display_name":"Ningbo University","ror":"https://ror.org/03et85d35","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I109935558"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I76569877","display_name":"Southeast University","ror":"https://ror.org/04ct4d772","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I76569877"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Jiao Liu","raw_affiliation_strings":["Collaborative Innovation Center of Modern Urban Traffic Technologies, Southeast University, Nanjing, China","Faculty of Maritime and Transportation, Ningbo University, Ningbo, China"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6861-2984","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Collaborative Innovation Center of Modern Urban Traffic Technologies, Southeast University, Nanjing, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I76569877"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Faculty of Maritime and Transportation, Ningbo University, Ningbo, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I109935558"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5135927640","display_name":"Kaige Zhu","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I109935558","display_name":"Ningbo University","ror":"https://ror.org/03et85d35","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I109935558"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I76569877","display_name":"Southeast University","ror":"https://ror.org/04ct4d772","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I76569877"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Kaige Zhu","raw_affiliation_strings":["Collaborative Innovation Center of Modern Urban Traffic Technologies, Southeast University, Nanjing, China","Faculty of Maritime and Transportation, Ningbo University, Ningbo, China"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Collaborative Innovation Center of Modern Urban Traffic Technologies, Southeast University, Nanjing, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I76569877"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Faculty of Maritime and Transportation, Ningbo University, Ningbo, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I109935558"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5135911126","display_name":"Tao Cheng","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I45129253","display_name":"University College London","ror":"https://ror.org/02jx3x895","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I124357947","https://openalex.org/I45129253"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Tao Cheng","raw_affiliation_strings":["SpaceTimeLab, Department of Civil, Environmental and Geomatic Engineering, University College London, London, United Kingdom"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"SpaceTimeLab, Department of Civil, Environmental and Geomatic Engineering, University College London, London, United Kingdom","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I45129253"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5135915986","display_name":"Zaili Yang","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I63098007","display_name":"Liverpool John Moores University","ror":"https://ror.org/04zfme737","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I63098007"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Zaili Yang","raw_affiliation_strings":["Liverpool Logistics, Offshore and Marine Research Institute, Liverpool John Moores University, Liverpool, UK"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Liverpool Logistics, Offshore and Marine Research Institute, Liverpool John Moores University, Liverpool, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I63098007"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":6,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5135920699"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I109935558","https://openalex.org/I45129253","https://openalex.org/I76569877"],"apc_list":{"value":4190,"currency":"USD","value_usd":4190},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.63328518,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":"275","issue":null,"first_page":"112864","last_page":"112864"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12316","display_name":"Oil Spill Detection and Mitigation","score":0.32580000162124634,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2310","display_name":"Pollution"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12316","display_name":"Oil Spill Detection and Mitigation","score":0.32580000162124634,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2310","display_name":"Pollution"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11622","display_name":"Maritime Navigation and Safety","score":0.11630000174045563,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2212","display_name":"Ocean Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11459","display_name":"Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics","score":0.08550000190734863,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1902","display_name":"Atmospheric Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bayesian-probability","display_name":"Bayesian probability","score":0.6384000182151794},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/laplaces-method","display_name":"Laplace's method","score":0.5372999906539917},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/arctic","display_name":"Arctic","score":0.49540001153945923},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/laplace-transform","display_name":"Laplace transform","score":0.4480000138282776},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/nested-set-model","display_name":"Nested set model","score":0.38530001044273376},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/the-arctic","display_name":"The arctic","score":0.376800000667572}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107673813","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812534","display_name":"Bayesian probability","level":2,"score":0.6384000182151794},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C22243797","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2058297","display_name":"Laplace's method","level":3,"score":0.5372999906539917},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.4959999918937683},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C518008717","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25322","display_name":"Arctic","level":2,"score":0.49540001153945923},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C97937538","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q199691","display_name":"Laplace transform","level":2,"score":0.4480000138282776},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C103000020","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1978426","display_name":"Nested set model","level":3,"score":0.38530001044273376},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3018378255","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25322","display_name":"The arctic","level":2,"score":0.376800000667572},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C160234255","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812535","display_name":"Bayesian inference","level":3,"score":0.37610000371932983},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C124101348","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q172491","display_name":"Data mining","level":1,"score":0.3564000129699707},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C153294291","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25261","display_name":"Meteorology","level":1,"score":0.3165999948978424},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33724603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812540","display_name":"Bayesian network","level":2,"score":0.30329999327659607},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.3010999858379364},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39432304","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188847","display_name":"Environmental science","level":0,"score":0.3003000020980835},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C42475967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q194292","display_name":"Operations research","level":1,"score":0.2944999933242798},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C11413529","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8366","display_name":"Algorithm","level":1,"score":0.27799999713897705},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.2728999853134155},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C114289077","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3284399","display_name":"Statistical model","level":2,"score":0.2696000039577484},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.2587999999523163},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C68022304","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q842217","display_name":"Bayes estimator","level":3,"score":0.25690001249313354}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1016/j.ress.2026.112864","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2026.112864","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S202403813","display_name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","issn_l":"0951-8320","issn":["0951-8320","1879-0836"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320990","host_organization_name":"Elsevier BV","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Elsevier BV"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","raw_type":"journal-article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.6401017308235168,"display_name":"Life below water","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/14"}],"awards":[],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321001","display_name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","ror":"https://ror.org/01h0zpd94"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320332587","display_name":"Natural Science Foundation of Ningbo","ror":"https://ror.org/01h0zpd94"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334322","display_name":"HORIZON EUROPE Framework Programme","ror":null},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320338464","display_name":"Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province","ror":"https://ror.org/01h0zpd94"}],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":54,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1747046542","https://openalex.org/W1837874438","https://openalex.org/W2057765075","https://openalex.org/W2059629792","https://openalex.org/W2065703910","https://openalex.org/W2084491844","https://openalex.org/W2101447351","https://openalex.org/W2130902307","https://openalex.org/W2133305600","https://openalex.org/W2144898279","https://openalex.org/W2151027679","https://openalex.org/W2153882688","https://openalex.org/W2165936664","https://openalex.org/W2174950805","https://openalex.org/W2203714058","https://openalex.org/W2305402217","https://openalex.org/W2762848528","https://openalex.org/W2791153215","https://openalex.org/W2801726981","https://openalex.org/W2808890992","https://openalex.org/W2896906292","https://openalex.org/W3025949386","https://openalex.org/W3033250364","https://openalex.org/W3091834447","https://openalex.org/W3116946172","https://openalex.org/W3125883306","https://openalex.org/W3138656701","https://openalex.org/W3152944550","https://openalex.org/W4210356633","https://openalex.org/W4226240904","https://openalex.org/W4247110653","https://openalex.org/W4381188588","https://openalex.org/W4386401515","https://openalex.org/W4386774638","https://openalex.org/W4388818751","https://openalex.org/W4390324987","https://openalex.org/W4395664178","https://openalex.org/W4397024157","https://openalex.org/W4400408210","https://openalex.org/W4401763470","https://openalex.org/W4404907227","https://openalex.org/W4405263787","https://openalex.org/W4405624831","https://openalex.org/W4408106273","https://openalex.org/W4408624041","https://openalex.org/W4409385212","https://openalex.org/W4412663616","https://openalex.org/W4413893757","https://openalex.org/W4413905328","https://openalex.org/W4414043758","https://openalex.org/W4415459597","https://openalex.org/W4416011842","https://openalex.org/W4417485656","https://openalex.org/W7128903116"],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":null,"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-06-18T08:10:14.011955","created_date":"2026-05-13T00:00:00"}