{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7155095288","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2026.112742","title":"Delay-induced arrival autocorrelation and its regime-dependent impact on port reliability","display_name":"Delay-induced arrival autocorrelation and its regime-dependent impact on port reliability","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-04-21","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7155095288","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2026.112742"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1016/j.ress.2026.112742","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2026.112742","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S202403813","display_name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","issn_l":"0951-8320","issn":["0951-8320","1879-0836"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320990","host_organization_name":"Elsevier BV","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Elsevier BV"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"hybrid","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2026.112742","any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5100410559","display_name":"Zihan Zhang","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2544-4487"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I165932596","display_name":"National University of Singapore","ror":"https://ror.org/01tgyzw49","country_code":"SG","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I165932596"]}],"countries":["SG"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Zihan Zhang","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Industrial Systems Engineering and Management, National University of Singapore, 21 Lower Kent Ridge Rd, 119077, Singapore"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Industrial Systems Engineering and Management, National University of Singapore, 21 Lower Kent Ridge Rd, 119077, Singapore","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I165932596"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5019953917","display_name":"Xun Xiao","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8780-5471"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I80281795","display_name":"University of Otago","ror":"https://ror.org/01jmxt844","country_code":"NZ","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I80281795"]}],"countries":["NZ"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Xun Xiao","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Otago, 730 Cumberland Street, Dunedin, 9016, New Zealand"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8780-5471","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Otago, 730 Cumberland Street, Dunedin, 9016, New Zealand","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I80281795"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5134096284","display_name":"Zhisheng Ye","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I165932596","display_name":"National University of Singapore","ror":"https://ror.org/01tgyzw49","country_code":"SG","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I165932596"]}],"countries":["SG"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Zhi-Sheng Ye","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Industrial Systems Engineering and Management, National University of Singapore, 21 Lower Kent Ridge Rd, 119077, Singapore"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Industrial Systems Engineering and Management, National University of Singapore, 21 Lower Kent Ridge Rd, 119077, Singapore","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I165932596"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":3,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5019953917"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I80281795"],"apc_list":{"value":4190,"currency":"USD","value_usd":4190},"apc_paid":{"value":4190,"currency":"USD","value_usd":4190},"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.50489088,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":"275","issue":null,"first_page":"112742","last_page":"112742"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12146","display_name":"Power Line Communications and Noise","score":0.13729999959468842,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2208","display_name":"Electrical and Electronic Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12146","display_name":"Power Line Communications and Noise","score":0.13729999959468842,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2208","display_name":"Electrical and Electronic Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11513","display_name":"stochastic dynamics and bifurcation","score":0.08540000021457672,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3109","display_name":"Statistical and Nonlinear Physics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/31","display_name":"Physics and Astronomy"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10232","display_name":"Optical Network Technologies","score":0.06920000165700912,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2208","display_name":"Electrical and Electronic Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/reliability","display_name":"Reliability (semiconductor)","score":0.7404000163078308},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/autocorrelation","display_name":"Autocorrelation","score":0.5719000101089478},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/port","display_name":"Port (circuit theory)","score":0.5663999915122986},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/arrival-time","display_name":"Arrival time","score":0.3546999990940094},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/time-of-arrival","display_name":"Time of arrival","score":0.32820001244544983}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C43214815","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7310987","display_name":"Reliability (semiconductor)","level":3,"score":0.7404000163078308},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C200601418","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2193887","display_name":"Reliability engineering","level":1,"score":0.5961999893188477},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.5737000107765198},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C5297727","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q786970","display_name":"Autocorrelation","level":2,"score":0.5719000101089478},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C32802771","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2443617","display_name":"Port (circuit theory)","level":2,"score":0.5663999915122986},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C79403827","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3988","display_name":"Real-time computing","level":1,"score":0.367000013589859},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3017552255","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4135208","display_name":"Arrival time","level":2,"score":0.3546999990940094},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127413603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11023","display_name":"Engineering","level":0,"score":0.32910001277923584},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C163150518","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4135208","display_name":"Time of arrival","level":3,"score":0.32820001244544983},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C11413529","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8366","display_name":"Algorithm","level":1,"score":0.2955000102519989},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C201729545","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2193887","display_name":"Reliability theory","level":3,"score":0.28769999742507935},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.28369998931884766},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C124101348","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q172491","display_name":"Data mining","level":1,"score":0.28060001134872437}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1016/j.ress.2026.112742","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2026.112742","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S202403813","display_name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","issn_l":"0951-8320","issn":["0951-8320","1879-0836"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320990","host_organization_name":"Elsevier BV","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Elsevier BV"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","raw_type":"journal-article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1016/j.ress.2026.112742","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2026.112742","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S202403813","display_name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","issn_l":"0951-8320","issn":["0951-8320","1879-0836"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320990","host_organization_name":"Elsevier BV","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Elsevier BV"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320335369","display_name":"Marsden Fund","ror":null}],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":35,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1971668185","https://openalex.org/W1975184330","https://openalex.org/W1986393158","https://openalex.org/W2034075882","https://openalex.org/W2039698234","https://openalex.org/W2048144767","https://openalex.org/W2060120236","https://openalex.org/W2066906122","https://openalex.org/W2073441921","https://openalex.org/W2079324329","https://openalex.org/W2083678152","https://openalex.org/W2103240961","https://openalex.org/W2141547117","https://openalex.org/W2165551776","https://openalex.org/W2288237245","https://openalex.org/W2311766507","https://openalex.org/W2409089623","https://openalex.org/W2415122175","https://openalex.org/W2488686424","https://openalex.org/W2977591925","https://openalex.org/W3002173529","https://openalex.org/W3014559298","https://openalex.org/W3023937267","https://openalex.org/W3120595187","https://openalex.org/W4281667742","https://openalex.org/W4283010735","https://openalex.org/W4322733367","https://openalex.org/W4386224573","https://openalex.org/W4387393467","https://openalex.org/W4392179764","https://openalex.org/W4393909689","https://openalex.org/W4398202465","https://openalex.org/W4399174973","https://openalex.org/W4403600938","https://openalex.org/W4406661068"],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Vessel":[0],"arrivals":[1],"at":[2,38],"maritime":[3],"ports":[4],"are":[5],"often":[6,18],"modeled":[7],"by":[8,93,214],"Poisson":[9],"processes":[10],"with":[11,189],"independent":[12,134],"increments,":[13],"yet":[14],"real":[15,120],"traffic":[16],"data":[17,25],"exhibits":[19],"short-term":[20],"autocorrelation.":[21],"Using":[22],"daily":[23,171],"arrival":[24,109,130],"derived":[26],"from":[27],"the":[28,106,154],"Automatic":[29],"Identification":[30],"System":[31],"(AIS),":[32],"we":[33,126],"detect":[34],"significant":[35],"positive":[36,181],"autocorrelation":[37,182],"short":[39],"lags":[40],"even":[41],"after":[42],"removing":[43],"weekly":[44],"seasonality.":[45],"This":[46,104],"temporal":[47,193],"dependence":[48,194,226],"may":[49],"reshape":[50],"port":[51,63,73,113,200],"congestion":[52,56,64,80,88,176,188,242],"dynamics,":[53,84],"affecting":[54],"how":[55],"emerges,":[57],"persists,":[58],"and":[59,71,82,98,116,136,174,185,218,223,234,243],"dissipates.":[60],"We":[61],"treat":[62],"as":[65],"a":[66,128,196],"threshold-exceedance":[67],"recurrent":[68],"failure":[69,78],"event":[70],"assess":[72],"reliability":[74,230],"under":[75,119,205,232],"uncertainty":[76,233],"through":[77],"recurrence,":[79],"duration,":[81],"recovery":[83,244],"recognizing":[85],"that":[86,132,153,239],"sustained":[87],"itself":[89],"creates":[90],"additional":[91],"risk":[92,211],"propagating":[94],"delays,":[95],"slowing":[96],"recovery,":[97],"increasing":[99,219],"vulnerability":[100],"to":[101,112,141],"further":[102],"disruption.":[103],"connects":[105],"temporally":[107],"autocorrelated":[108],"process":[110],"directly":[111],"resilience":[114],"assessment":[115,231],"capacity":[117,237],"planning":[118],"traffic.":[121],"To":[122],"account":[123],"for":[124,229,235],"autocorrelation,":[125],"develop":[127],"delay-induced":[129],"model":[131],"combines":[133],"per-vessel":[135],"fractional":[137,156],"block-wise":[138],"delay":[139,157],"components":[140],"reproduce":[142],"observed":[143],"short-lag":[144],"correlations.":[145],"Discrete-event":[146],"simulations":[147],"of":[148],"parallel":[149],"berth":[150],"queues":[151],"show":[152],"proposed":[155],"mechanism":[158],"introduces":[159],"two":[160],"distinct":[161],"statistical":[162],"effects.":[163],"Under":[164,178],"moderate":[165,206],"loads,":[166,180],"reduced":[167],"marginal":[168],"variance":[169],"smooths":[170],"transit":[172],"times":[173],"lowers":[175],"frequency.":[177],"near-capacity":[179],"yields":[183],"longer":[184],"more":[186],"severe":[187],"slower":[190],"recovery.":[191],"Thus,":[192],"has":[195],"regime-dependent":[197],"impact":[198],"on":[199],"reliability:":[201],"it":[202],"stabilizes":[203],"performance":[204],"utilization,":[207],"but":[208],"amplifies":[209],"tail":[210],"near":[212],"saturation":[213],"prolonging":[215],"congested":[216],"episodes":[217],"their":[220],"severity.":[221],"Recognizing":[222],"monitoring":[224],"such":[225],"is":[227],"essential":[228],"designing":[236],"policies":[238],"reduce":[240],"extreme":[241],"time.":[245]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-06-19T15:47:20.252518","created_date":"2026-04-22T00:00:00"}