{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7101391545","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2025.111835","title":"Non-stationary stochastic modelling of precipitation extremes in the changing climate","display_name":"Non-stationary stochastic modelling of precipitation extremes in the changing climate","publication_year":2025,"publication_date":"2025-10-28","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7101391545","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2025.111835"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1016/j.ress.2025.111835","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2025.111835","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S202403813","display_name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","issn_l":"0951-8320","issn":["0951-8320","1879-0836"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320990","host_organization_name":"Elsevier BV","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Elsevier BV"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"hybrid","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2025.111835","any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":null,"display_name":"Rituraj Bhadra","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8708-0653"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I151746483","display_name":"University of Waterloo","ror":"https://ror.org/01aff2v68","country_code":"CA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I151746483"]}],"countries":["CA"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Rituraj Bhadra","raw_affiliation_strings":["Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Waterloo, 200 University Ave, Waterloo, N2L 3G1, Ontario, Canada"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8708-0653","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Waterloo, 200 University Ave, Waterloo, N2L 3G1, Ontario, Canada","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I151746483"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":null,"display_name":"Mahesh D. Pandey","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5083-2599"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I151746483","display_name":"University of Waterloo","ror":"https://ror.org/01aff2v68","country_code":"CA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I151746483"]}],"countries":["CA"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Mahesh D. Pandey","raw_affiliation_strings":["Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Waterloo, 200 University Ave, Waterloo, N2L 3G1, Ontario, Canada"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5083-2599","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Waterloo, 200 University Ave, Waterloo, N2L 3G1, Ontario, Canada","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I151746483"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I151746483"],"apc_list":{"value":4190,"currency":"USD","value_usd":4190},"apc_paid":{"value":4190,"currency":"USD","value_usd":4190},"fwci":2.9719,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":2,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.92499301,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":98,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"266","issue":null,"first_page":"111835","last_page":"111835"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":true,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11662","display_name":"Legal Cases and Commentary","score":0.024399999529123306,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2743","display_name":"Reproductive Medicine"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11662","display_name":"Legal Cases and Commentary","score":0.024399999529123306,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2743","display_name":"Reproductive Medicine"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13370","display_name":"Diverse Scientific and Economic Studies","score":0.017000000923871994,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12633","display_name":"Legal case studies and regulations","score":0.01510000042617321,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3320","display_name":"Political Science and International Relations"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/extreme-value-theory","display_name":"Extreme value theory","score":0.7382000088691711},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/precipitation","display_name":"Precipitation","score":0.7157999873161316},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/context","display_name":"Context (archaeology)","score":0.6607000231742859},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/climate-change","display_name":"Climate change","score":0.5963000059127808},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/reliability","display_name":"Reliability (semiconductor)","score":0.5331000089645386},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/climate-model","display_name":"Climate model","score":0.5270000100135803},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/extreme-weather","display_name":"Extreme weather","score":0.49390000104904175},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/stylized-fact","display_name":"Stylized fact","score":0.4875999987125397}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C147581598","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q729429","display_name":"Extreme value theory","level":2,"score":0.7382000088691711},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107054158","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25257","display_name":"Precipitation","level":2,"score":0.7157999873161316},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779343474","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3109175","display_name":"Context (archaeology)","level":2,"score":0.6607000231742859},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C132651083","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7942","display_name":"Climate change","level":2,"score":0.5963000059127808},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39432304","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188847","display_name":"Environmental science","level":0,"score":0.5683000087738037},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C43214815","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7310987","display_name":"Reliability (semiconductor)","level":3,"score":0.5331000089645386},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C168754636","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q620920","display_name":"Climate model","level":3,"score":0.5270000100135803},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205537798","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1277161","display_name":"Extreme weather","level":3,"score":0.49390000104904175},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C38935604","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4330363","display_name":"Stylized fact","level":2,"score":0.4875999987125397},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49204034","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q52139","display_name":"Climatology","level":1,"score":0.4749999940395355},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C169707849","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1617240","display_name":"Generalized extreme value distribution","level":3,"score":0.4749000072479248},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127491075","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7617825","display_name":"Stochastic modelling","level":2,"score":0.474700003862381},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C153294291","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25261","display_name":"Meteorology","level":1,"score":0.4433000087738037},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.4083000123500824},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C100906024","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q205692","display_name":"Poisson distribution","level":2,"score":0.40070000290870667},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C173801870","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q201413","display_name":"Heuristic","level":2,"score":0.39329999685287476},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C75007070","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2627230","display_name":"Return period","level":3,"score":0.35749998688697815},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778372335","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5133509","display_name":"Climate change scenario","level":3,"score":0.3434999883174896},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C8272713","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q176737","display_name":"Stochastic process","level":2,"score":0.3057999908924103},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C98045186","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q205663","display_name":"Process (computing)","level":2,"score":0.295199990272522},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126691448","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2028919","display_name":"Magnitude (astronomy)","level":2,"score":0.2872999906539917},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776291640","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2912517","display_name":"Value (mathematics)","level":2,"score":0.28610000014305115},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777317252","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q18393516","display_name":"Rare events","level":2,"score":0.2847000062465668},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C93038891","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1061524","display_name":"Intensity (physics)","level":2,"score":0.2736999988555908},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.25929999351501465},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.25209999084472656}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1016/j.ress.2025.111835","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2025.111835","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S202403813","display_name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","issn_l":"0951-8320","issn":["0951-8320","1879-0836"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320990","host_organization_name":"Elsevier BV","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Elsevier BV"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","raw_type":"journal-article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1016/j.ress.2025.111835","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2025.111835","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S202403813","display_name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","issn_l":"0951-8320","issn":["0951-8320","1879-0836"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320990","host_organization_name":"Elsevier BV","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Elsevier BV"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/13","score":0.8724071383476257,"display_name":"Climate action"}],"awards":[],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320325263","display_name":"Environment and Climate Change Canada","ror":"https://ror.org/026ny0e17"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334593","display_name":"Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada","ror":"https://ror.org/01h531d29"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F7144301071","display_name":"Ouranos","ror":null}],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":34,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W780626378","https://openalex.org/W1608031407","https://openalex.org/W1969543203","https://openalex.org/W2027170902","https://openalex.org/W2027246254","https://openalex.org/W2028267147","https://openalex.org/W2048585368","https://openalex.org/W2059526973","https://openalex.org/W2067688297","https://openalex.org/W2070195898","https://openalex.org/W2078124599","https://openalex.org/W2084437243","https://openalex.org/W2148650246","https://openalex.org/W2157189030","https://openalex.org/W2309202376","https://openalex.org/W2335090993","https://openalex.org/W2337225114","https://openalex.org/W2549367748","https://openalex.org/W2621103895","https://openalex.org/W2900842202","https://openalex.org/W3001215949","https://openalex.org/W3036651496","https://openalex.org/W3038038335","https://openalex.org/W3117543414","https://openalex.org/W3212565273","https://openalex.org/W4220701968","https://openalex.org/W4224228257","https://openalex.org/W4306838952","https://openalex.org/W4308028283","https://openalex.org/W4366085553","https://openalex.org/W4385759697","https://openalex.org/W4400621507","https://openalex.org/W4404458961","https://openalex.org/W4412430463"],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"The":[0,206,270],"increasing":[1],"frequency":[2,75,229],"and":[3,19,76,78,100,141,198,239,277,296,313,334],"intensity":[4,307],"of":[5,26,72,83,129,138,149,163,167,202,230,258,264,267,280],"extreme":[6,28,36,132,204],"weather":[7,49,124],"events,":[8],"driven":[9],"by":[10,235,237,244,292,298],"climate":[11,150,341],"change,":[12],"pose":[13],"significant":[14,252],"challenges":[15],"to":[16,43,184,194,329,340],"infrastructure":[17,139],"reliability":[18,128],"safety.":[20],"Although,":[21],"the":[22,27,33,46,52,81,84,88,127,136,147,164,168,179,185,200,212,219,227,240,247,255,259,265,274,278,289,293,305,310,317,324,331,337],"non-stationary":[23,89,121,169,213,318],"(NS)":[24],"versions":[25],"value":[29,37,262],"models":[30,39,60,64,99,171,326],"such":[31,98],"as":[32],"NS":[34],"generalized":[35],"(GEV)":[38],"are":[40,209,320],"being":[41,61],"used":[42],"account":[44],"for":[45,97,104,118,120,218,323],"non-stationarity":[47],"in":[48,56,70,74,79,87,93,123,143,251,254,286,316],"data":[50,193,282],"over":[51,246],"past":[53],"few":[54],"decades":[55],"several":[57],"regions,":[58],"these":[59],"high":[62,144],"level":[63],"do":[65],"not":[66],"provide":[67],"any":[68],"specificity":[69],"terms":[71],"changes":[73,122,253],"intensity,":[77],"addition":[80],"definition":[82],"return":[85,314],"period":[86],"context":[90,319],"is":[91,152],"derived":[92],"a":[94,114,155],"heuristic":[95],"way":[96],"could":[101],"be":[102,301],"misleading":[103],"engineering":[105],"design.":[106],"To":[107],"address":[108],"this":[109,111],"limitation,":[110],"study":[112],"presents":[113],"stochastic":[115],"process":[116,158],"model":[117,181],"accounting":[119],"extremes":[125],"affecting":[126],"structures.":[130],"Since":[131],"precipitation":[133,192,231,242,281],"events":[134,232],"disrupt":[135],"operation":[137],"systems":[140],"result":[142],"economic":[145],"losses,":[146],"effect":[148],"change":[151],"investigated":[153],"using":[154],"non-homogeneous":[156],"Poisson":[157],"(NHPP)":[159],"model.":[160],"First,":[161],"some":[162,287],"underlying":[165,306],"issues":[166],"GEV":[170],"were":[172],"assessed":[173],"through":[174],"stylized":[175],"simulation":[176,275],"studies.":[177],"Then,":[178],"NHPP":[180,299],"was":[182,224],"applied":[183],"Coupled":[186],"Model":[187],"Inter-comparison":[188],"Project":[189],"(phase":[190],"6)":[191],"demonstrate":[195],"its":[196],"application":[197],"analyze":[199],"projections":[201],"future":[203],"precipitation.":[205],"analytical":[207],"results":[208],"compared":[210],"with":[211],"EV":[214],"models.":[215],"Upon":[216],"analysis,":[217],"SSP5-8.5":[220],"emission":[221],"scenario,":[222],"it":[223],"found":[225],"that":[226,284,297],"median":[228],"will":[233],"increase":[234],"60%":[236],"2100":[238],"mean":[241],"magnitude":[243],"5%":[245],"same":[248],"period,":[249],"resulting":[250],"tail":[256],"quantiles":[257,290],"annual":[260],"maximum":[261],"distribution,":[263,308],"order":[266],"20%\u201325%":[268],".":[269],"comparison":[271],"based":[272],"on":[273],"studies":[276],"analysis":[279],"indicates":[283],"although":[285],"cases,":[288],"predicted":[291],"traditional":[294],"EVDs,":[295],"can":[300],"close":[302],"depending":[303],"upon":[304],"but":[309],"waiting":[311],"times":[312],"periods":[315],"grossly":[321],"over-estimated":[322],"GEV-based":[325],"which":[327],"fails":[328],"present":[330],"actual":[332],"scenario":[333],"may":[335],"affect":[336],"preparedness":[338],"related":[339],"action.":[342]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":2}],"updated_date":"2026-01-20T17:24:06.736184","created_date":"2025-10-28T00:00:00"}