{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4221069339","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.patter.2022.100492","title":"Looking back on forward-looking COVID models","display_name":"Looking back on forward-looking COVID models","publication_year":2022,"publication_date":"2022-03-22","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4221069339","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.patter.2022.100492","pmid":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35845843"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1016/j.patter.2022.100492","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.patter.2022.100492","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.patter.2022.100492","pdf_url":"http://www.cell.com/article/S2666389922000770/pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210198061","display_name":"Patterns","issn_l":"2666-3899","issn":["2666-3899"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core","doaj","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","norway-1"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320990","host_organization_name":"Elsevier BV","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Elsevier BV"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Patterns","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","doaj","pubmed"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"http://www.cell.com/article/S2666389922000770/pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5021890662","display_name":"Paul Chong","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9779-5660","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9779-5660"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I132446568","display_name":"Campbell University","ror":"https://ror.org/00dv9q566","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I132446568"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Paul Chong","raw_affiliation_strings":["Campbell University School of Osteopathic Medicine, Lillington, NC 27546, USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Campbell University School of Osteopathic Medicine, Lillington, NC 27546, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I132446568"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5081620315","display_name":"Byung-Jun Yoon","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9328-1101","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9328-1101"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I200870766","display_name":"Brookhaven National Laboratory","ror":"https://ror.org/02ex6cf31","country_code":"US","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1330989302","https://openalex.org/I200870766","https://openalex.org/I39565521","https://openalex.org/I4210142672"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I91045830","display_name":"Texas A&M University","ror":"https://ror.org/01f5ytq51","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I91045830"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Byung-Jun Yoon","raw_affiliation_strings":["Brookhaven National Laboratory, Computational Science Initiative, Upton, NY 11973-5000, USA","Texas A&M University, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, College Station, TX 77843, USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Brookhaven National Laboratory, Computational Science Initiative, Upton, NY 11973-5000, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I200870766"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Texas A&M University, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, College Station, TX 77843, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I91045830"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5032351480","display_name":"Debbie Lai","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I45129253","display_name":"University College London","ror":"https://ror.org/02jx3x895","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I124357947","https://openalex.org/I45129253"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Debbie Lai","raw_affiliation_strings":["Act Now Coalition, 340 S Lemon Avenue 6683, Walnut, CA 91789-2706, USA","University College of London, Division of Psychology and Language Sciences, London WC1E 6BT, England, UK"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Act Now Coalition, 340 S Lemon Avenue 6683, Walnut, CA 91789-2706, USA","institution_ids":[]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"University College of London, Division of Psychology and Language Sciences, London WC1E 6BT, England, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I45129253"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5113667310","display_name":"Michael E. Carlson","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1302444339","display_name":"Northwell Health","ror":"https://ror.org/02bxt4m23","country_code":"US","type":"healthcare","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1302444339"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Michael Carlson","raw_affiliation_strings":["Act Now Coalition, 340 S Lemon Avenue 6683, Walnut, CA 91789-2706, USA","Northwell Health, New York, NY 10075, USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Act Now Coalition, 340 S Lemon Avenue 6683, Walnut, CA 91789-2706, USA","institution_ids":[]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Northwell Health, New York, NY 10075, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1302444339"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5042600424","display_name":"Jarone Lee","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4532-8523","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4532-8523"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I136199984","display_name":"Harvard University","ror":"https://ror.org/03vek6s52","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I136199984"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210087915","display_name":"Massachusetts General Hospital","ror":"https://ror.org/002pd6e78","country_code":"US","type":"healthcare","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210087915","https://openalex.org/I48633490"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Jarone Lee","raw_affiliation_strings":["Departments of Surgery and Emergency Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02114, USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Departments of Surgery and Emergency Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02114, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I136199984","https://openalex.org/I4210087915"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5085926841","display_name":"Shuhan He","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9902-5077","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9902-5077"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I136199984","display_name":"Harvard University","ror":"https://ror.org/03vek6s52","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I136199984"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210087915","display_name":"Massachusetts General Hospital","ror":"https://ror.org/002pd6e78","country_code":"US","type":"healthcare","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210087915","https://openalex.org/I48633490"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Shuhan He","raw_affiliation_strings":["Lab of Computer Science, Department of Internal Medicine, Department of Emergency Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02114, USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Lab of Computer Science, Department of Internal Medicine, Department of Emergency Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02114, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I136199984","https://openalex.org/I4210087915"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":7,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5085926841"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I136199984","https://openalex.org/I4210087915"],"apc_list":{"value":8900,"currency":"USD","value_usd":8900},"apc_paid":{"value":8900,"currency":"USD","value_usd":8900},"fwci":0.1454,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":1,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.41364576,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":93},"biblio":{"volume":"3","issue":"7","first_page":"100492","last_page":"100492"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":0.9990000128746033,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":0.9990000128746033,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10482","display_name":"Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models","score":0.0003000000142492354,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2739","display_name":"Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11819","display_name":"Data-Driven Disease Surveillance","score":9.999999747378752e-05,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2713","display_name":"Epidemiology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/covid-19","display_name":"COVID-19 pandemic","score":0.9879999756813049},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/epidemic-forecasting","display_name":"epidemic forecasting","score":0.5680000185966492},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/backtesting","display_name":"backtesting","score":0.6179999709129333},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/non-pharmaceutical-interventions","display_name":"non-pharmaceutical interventions","score":0.9879999756813049},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/model-evaluation","display_name":"model evaluation","score":0.5170000195503235},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mortality-projections","display_name":"mortality projections","score":0.9169999957084656},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/model-overestimation","display_name":"model overestimation","score":0.5699999928474426},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/model-limitations","display_name":"model limitations","score":0.3880000114440918},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/pandemic-preparedness","display_name":"pandemic preparedness","score":0.4869999885559082}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3008058167","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q84263196","display_name":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)","level":4,"score":0.7352896928787231},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C89623803","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12184","display_name":"Pandemic","level":5,"score":0.642024040222168},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.5454424619674683},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3007834351","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q82069695","display_name":"Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)","level":5,"score":0.5026116371154785},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3006700255","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q81068910","display_name":"2019-20 coronavirus outbreak","level":3,"score":0.5021481513977051},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C1627819","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2572354","display_name":"Epidemic model","level":3,"score":0.4460690915584564},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.4297313094139099},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2522767166","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2374463","display_name":"Data science","level":1,"score":0.3996064066886902},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C116675565","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3241045","display_name":"Outbreak","level":2,"score":0.36077624559402466},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.19930130243301392},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.13245698809623718},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159047783","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7215","display_name":"Virology","level":1,"score":0.12787434458732605},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C524204448","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q788926","display_name":"Infectious disease (medical specialty)","level":3,"score":0.08413246273994446},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C99454951","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q932068","display_name":"Environmental health","level":1,"score":0.07677143812179565},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2908647359","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2625603","display_name":"Population","level":2,"score":0.07289832830429077},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C142724271","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7208","display_name":"Pathology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779134260","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12136","display_name":"Disease","level":2,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1016/j.patter.2022.100492","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.patter.2022.100492","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.patter.2022.100492","pdf_url":"http://www.cell.com/article/S2666389922000770/pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210198061","display_name":"Patterns","issn_l":"2666-3899","issn":["2666-3899"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core","doaj","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","norway-1"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320990","host_organization_name":"Elsevier BV","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Elsevier BV"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Patterns","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmid:35845843","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35845843","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525036","display_name":"PubMed","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Patterns (New York, N.Y.)","raw_type":"Journal Article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:9278499","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/9278499","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764455111","display_name":"PubMed Central","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Patterns (N Y)","raw_type":"Text"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1016/j.patter.2022.100492","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.patter.2022.100492","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.patter.2022.100492","pdf_url":"http://www.cell.com/article/S2666389922000770/pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210198061","display_name":"Patterns","issn_l":"2666-3899","issn":["2666-3899"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core","doaj","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","norway-1"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320990","host_organization_name":"Elsevier BV","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Elsevier BV"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by-nc-nd","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-nc-nd","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Patterns","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"display_name":"Good health and well-being","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3","score":0.8048999905586243}],"sustainable_development_goals_aurora":[{"display_name":"Good health and well-being","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3","score":0.7799999713897705}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320319394","display_name":"Foundation for Opioid Response Efforts","ror":"https://ror.org/03vv3x922"}],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4221069339.pdf"},"referenced_works_count":18,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W2026613779","https://openalex.org/W2035291537","https://openalex.org/W2330232466","https://openalex.org/W2462161029","https://openalex.org/W3008294222","https://openalex.org/W3012789146","https://openalex.org/W3013967887","https://openalex.org/W3023093692","https://openalex.org/W3025512159","https://openalex.org/W3087373755","https://openalex.org/W3094123349","https://openalex.org/W3107122234","https://openalex.org/W3135360747","https://openalex.org/W3193601449","https://openalex.org/W3197266611","https://openalex.org/W6675509905","https://openalex.org/W6777204164","https://openalex.org/W6791463125"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W4200329650","https://openalex.org/W3127156785","https://openalex.org/W3009669391","https://openalex.org/W4205317059","https://openalex.org/W3005417802","https://openalex.org/W3084498529","https://openalex.org/W3171943759","https://openalex.org/W4226296940","https://openalex.org/W3036314732","https://openalex.org/W3134376730"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Covid":[0],"Act":[1],"Now":[2],"(CAN)":[3],"developed":[4,32,131],"an":[5,61],"epidemiological":[6,102],"model":[7,31,46],"that":[8,44,81],"takes":[9],"various":[10],"non-pharmaceutical":[11],"interventions":[12],"(NPIs)":[13],"into":[14],"account":[15],"and":[16,20,40,50,54,77,89],"predicts":[17],"viral":[18,120],"spread":[19],"subsequent":[21],"health":[22],"outcomes.":[23],"In":[24],"this":[25],"study,":[26],"the":[27,30,45,64,86,92,95,135,142],"projections":[28],"of":[29,63,66,91,137],"by":[33,52,146],"CAN":[34],"were":[35,71],"back-tested":[36,73],"against":[37,74],"real-world":[38],"data,":[39,76],"it":[41,78,123],"was":[42,79],"found":[43,80],"consistently":[47],"overestimated":[48],"hospitalizations":[49],"deaths":[51],"25%-100%":[53],"70%-170%,":[55],"respectively,":[56],"due":[57],"in":[58,94,119],"part":[59],"to":[60,101,111,127,133,139],"underestimation":[62],"efficacy":[65],"NPIs.":[67],"Other":[68],"COVID":[69],"models":[70,83,110,132],"also":[72],"historical":[75],"all":[82],"generally":[84],"captured":[85],"potential":[87],"magnitude":[88],"directionality":[90],"pandemic":[93],"short":[96],"term.":[97],"There":[98],"are":[99],"limitations":[100,107],"models,":[103],"but":[104],"understanding":[105],"these":[106,109],"enables":[108],"be":[112,125],"utilized":[113],"as":[114],"tools":[115],"for":[116,141],"data-driven":[117],"decision-making":[118],"outbreaks.":[121],"Further,":[122],"can":[124],"valuable":[126],"have":[128],"multiple,":[129],"independently":[130],"mitigate":[134],"inaccuracies":[136],"or":[138],"correct":[140],"incorrect":[143],"assumptions":[144],"made":[145],"a":[147],"particular":[148],"model.":[149]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-09-22T06:50:58.402377","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}
