{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7160906411","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neucom.2026.133893","title":"ARDM: Adaptive residual decay mechanism for dynamic error modification in time series forecasting","display_name":"ARDM: Adaptive residual decay mechanism for dynamic error modification in time series forecasting","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-05-12","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7160906411","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neucom.2026.133893"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1016/j.neucom.2026.133893","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neucom.2026.133893","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S45693802","display_name":"Neurocomputing","issn_l":"0925-2312","issn":["0925-2312","1872-8286"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320990","host_organization_name":"Elsevier BV","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Elsevier BV"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Neurocomputing","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"hybrid","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neucom.2026.133893","any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5135989501","display_name":"Ying Zhang","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0000-5961-470X"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210088225","display_name":"China National Space Administration","ror":"https://ror.org/004vanv95","country_code":"CN","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210088225"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210115570","display_name":"National Space Science Center","ror":"https://ror.org/02nnjtm50","country_code":"CN","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I19820366","https://openalex.org/I4210115570"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210165038","display_name":"University of Chinese Academy of Sciences","ror":"https://ror.org/05qbk4x57","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I19820366","https://openalex.org/I4210165038"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Ying Zhang","raw_affiliation_strings":["National Space Science Center, CAS, Beijing 100190, China","National Space Science Data Center, Beijing 101407, China","University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0000-5961-470X","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"National Space Science Center, CAS, Beijing 100190, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210115570"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"National Space Science Data Center, Beijing 101407, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210088225"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210165038"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5135981943","display_name":"Rongcong Wang","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210115570","display_name":"National Space Science Center","ror":"https://ror.org/02nnjtm50","country_code":"CN","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I19820366","https://openalex.org/I4210115570"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Rongcong Wang","raw_affiliation_strings":["National Space Science Center, CAS, Beijing 100190, China","State Key Laboratory of Solar Activity and Space Weather, National Space Science Center, CAS, Beijing 100190, China"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"National Space Science Center, CAS, Beijing 100190, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210115570"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"State Key Laboratory of Solar Activity and Space Weather, National Space Science Center, CAS, Beijing 100190, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210115570"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5135963076","display_name":"Shaofeng Fang","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210088225","display_name":"China National Space Administration","ror":"https://ror.org/004vanv95","country_code":"CN","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210088225"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210115570","display_name":"National Space Science Center","ror":"https://ror.org/02nnjtm50","country_code":"CN","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I19820366","https://openalex.org/I4210115570"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Shaofeng Fang","raw_affiliation_strings":["National Space Science Center, CAS, Beijing 100190, China","National Space Science Data Center, Beijing 101407, China"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"National Space Science Center, CAS, Beijing 100190, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210115570"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"National Space Science Data Center, Beijing 101407, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210088225"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5135981494","display_name":"Yurong Liu","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210115570","display_name":"National Space Science Center","ror":"https://ror.org/02nnjtm50","country_code":"CN","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I19820366","https://openalex.org/I4210115570"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Yurong Liu","raw_affiliation_strings":["National Space Science Center, CAS, Beijing 100190, China"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"National Space Science Center, CAS, Beijing 100190, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210115570"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5128993657","display_name":"ziming zou","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210088225","display_name":"China National Space Administration","ror":"https://ror.org/004vanv95","country_code":"CN","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210088225"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210115570","display_name":"National Space Science Center","ror":"https://ror.org/02nnjtm50","country_code":"CN","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I19820366","https://openalex.org/I4210115570"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Ziming Zou","raw_affiliation_strings":["National Space Science Center, CAS, Beijing 100190, China","National Space Science Data Center, Beijing 101407, China"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9791-1369","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"National Space Science Center, CAS, Beijing 100190, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210115570"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"National Space Science Data Center, Beijing 101407, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210088225"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":3,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5128993657"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210088225","https://openalex.org/I4210115570"],"apc_list":{"value":2470,"currency":"USD","value_usd":2470},"apc_paid":{"value":2470,"currency":"USD","value_usd":2470},"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.59892987,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":"694","issue":null,"first_page":"133893","last_page":"133893"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.3871999979019165,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.3871999979019165,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11326","display_name":"Stock Market Forecasting Methods","score":0.15760000050067902,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11052","display_name":"Energy Load and Power Forecasting","score":0.03660000115633011,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2208","display_name":"Electrical and Electronic Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/residual","display_name":"Residual","score":0.6948000192642212},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/series","display_name":"Series (stratigraphy)","score":0.6161999702453613},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/control-theory","display_name":"Control theory (sociology)","score":0.4932999908924103},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mechanism","display_name":"Mechanism (biology)","score":0.48159998655319214},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/time-series","display_name":"Time series","score":0.4717000126838684},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/work","display_name":"Work (physics)","score":0.3456999957561493},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/error-detection-and-correction","display_name":"Error detection and correction","score":0.3163999915122986}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C155512373","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q287450","display_name":"Residual","level":2,"score":0.6948000192642212},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.6322000026702881},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C143724316","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q312468","display_name":"Series (stratigraphy)","level":2,"score":0.6161999702453613},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C47446073","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5165890","display_name":"Control theory (sociology)","level":3,"score":0.4932999908924103},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C89611455","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6804646","display_name":"Mechanism (biology)","level":2,"score":0.48159998655319214},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151406439","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q186588","display_name":"Time series","level":2,"score":0.4717000126838684},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C11413529","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8366","display_name":"Algorithm","level":1,"score":0.42989999055862427},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126255220","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q141495","display_name":"Mathematical optimization","level":1,"score":0.3582000136375427},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C18762648","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q42213","display_name":"Work (physics)","level":2,"score":0.3456999957561493},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C28826006","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q33521","display_name":"Applied mathematics","level":1,"score":0.3402999937534332},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C103088060","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1062839","display_name":"Error detection and correction","level":2,"score":0.3163999915122986},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C167085575","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6803654","display_name":"Mean squared prediction error","level":2,"score":0.31360000371932983},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C12426560","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q189569","display_name":"Basis (linear algebra)","level":2,"score":0.30320000648498535},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.29499998688697815},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C77618280","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1155772","display_name":"Scheme (mathematics)","level":2,"score":0.28850001096725464},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777303404","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q759757","display_name":"Convergence (economics)","level":2,"score":0.2879999876022339},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.2793000042438507},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C174303752","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3624438","display_name":"Forecast error","level":2,"score":0.2660999894142151},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776003309","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1988072","display_name":"Adaptive algorithm","level":2,"score":0.2574999928474426}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1016/j.neucom.2026.133893","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neucom.2026.133893","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S45693802","display_name":"Neurocomputing","issn_l":"0925-2312","issn":["0925-2312","1872-8286"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320990","host_organization_name":"Elsevier BV","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Elsevier BV"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Neurocomputing","raw_type":"journal-article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1016/j.neucom.2026.133893","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neucom.2026.133893","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S45693802","display_name":"Neurocomputing","issn_l":"0925-2312","issn":["0925-2312","1872-8286"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320990","host_organization_name":"Elsevier BV","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Elsevier BV"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Neurocomputing","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/13","display_name":"Climate action","score":0.737517237663269}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":16,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W2000042664","https://openalex.org/W2053449276","https://openalex.org/W2064675550","https://openalex.org/W2107878631","https://openalex.org/W2111286455","https://openalex.org/W2132782512","https://openalex.org/W2164655280","https://openalex.org/W2900620189","https://openalex.org/W3124528837","https://openalex.org/W3171884590","https://openalex.org/W3177318507","https://openalex.org/W4391288585","https://openalex.org/W4404635077","https://openalex.org/W4404635290","https://openalex.org/W4409593343","https://openalex.org/W4411450433"],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Multi-step":[0],"time":[1,207],"series":[2,208],"forecasting":[3,61,209],"often":[4],"suffers":[5],"from":[6],"accuracy":[7,201],"degradation":[8],"as":[9],"the":[10,26,159],"prediction":[11,168],"horizon":[12],"increases,":[13],"mainly":[14],"because":[15],"existing":[16],"models":[17,152],"lack":[18],"explicit":[19],"mechanisms":[20],"to":[21,25,117,141],"capture":[22],"and":[23,63,69,83,90,101,120,128,153,164,196,202],"adapt":[24],"evolving":[27],"dynamics":[28],"of":[29,167],"forecast":[30,123],"errors":[31,169],"over":[32],"time.":[33],"To":[34],"address":[35],"this":[36],"limitation,":[37],"we":[38],"propose":[39],"a":[40,107,110,133],"dynamic":[41],"error":[42,81,103,142],"modification":[43],"method,":[44],"termed":[45],"Adaptive":[46],"Residual":[47],"Decay":[48],"Mechanism":[49],"(ARDM),":[50],"which":[51,138],"establishes":[52],"an":[53],"end-to-end":[54],"predictive":[55],"optimization":[56],"method":[57],"aimed":[58],"at":[59],"enhancing":[60],"stability":[62],"generalization":[64],"across":[65,188],"diverse":[66],"temporal":[67,94],"patterns":[68],"application":[70],"scenarios.":[71],"ARDM":[72,96,150,182],"comprehensively":[73],"integrates":[74],"data":[75],"preprocessing,":[76],"initial":[77],"forecasting,":[78],"residual":[79,88,156,172],"analysis,":[80],"modification,":[82],"final":[84],"output.":[85],"By":[86],"constructing":[87],"sequences":[89],"extracting":[91],"their":[92],"underlying":[93],"dependencies,":[95],"effectively":[97],"incorporates":[98],"both":[99],"short-term":[100],"long-term":[102],"evolution":[104],"patterns.":[105],"Within":[106],"symmetrical":[108],"architecture,":[109],"time-sensitive":[111],"adaptive":[112],"decay":[113,126],"function":[114],"is":[115],"introduced":[116],"dynamically":[118],"estimate":[119],"adjust":[121],"horizon-dependent":[122],"errors.":[124],"Optimal":[125],"functions":[127],"parameters":[129],"are":[130],"selected":[131],"through":[132,170],"multi-metric":[134],"joint":[135],"loss":[136],"function,":[137],"balances":[139],"sensitivity":[140],"magnitude":[143],"with":[144],"robustness":[145,204],"against":[146],"directional":[147],"deviations.":[148],"Furthermore,":[149],"systematically":[151],"exploits":[154],"historical":[155],"information":[157],"during":[158],"observation":[160],"phase,":[161],"enabling":[162],"stable":[163],"horizon-aware":[165],"refinement":[166],"structured":[171],"dependencies.":[173],"Empirical":[174],"results":[175],"on":[176],"multiple":[177],"real-world":[178],"datasets":[179],"demonstrate":[180],"that":[181],"consistently":[183],"outperforms":[184],"mainstream":[185],"baseline":[186],"methods":[187],"various":[189],"metrics":[190],"(MAE,":[191],"MSE,":[192],"MAPE,":[193],"RMSE,":[194],"SSE,":[195],"IA)":[197],"validating":[198],"its":[199],"high":[200],"strong":[203],"in":[205],"complex":[206],"tasks.":[210]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-06-18T08:10:14.011955","created_date":"2026-05-13T00:00:00"}