{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7163703175","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2026.107052","title":"A diagnostic framework for interpreting spatiotemporal probabilistic forecasts","display_name":"A diagnostic framework for interpreting spatiotemporal probabilistic forecasts","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-06-05","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7163703175","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2026.107052"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2026.107052","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2026.107052","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S113611870","display_name":"Environmental Modelling & Software","issn_l":"1364-8152","issn":["1364-8152","1873-6726"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320990","host_organization_name":"Elsevier BV","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Elsevier BV"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Environmental Modelling & Software","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5065917762","display_name":"Kouao Laurent Kouadio","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7259-7254"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I139660479","display_name":"Central South University","ror":"https://ror.org/00f1zfq44","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I139660479"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210116850","display_name":"Hunan Nonferrous Metal Research Institute","ror":"https://ror.org/025c9az97","country_code":"CN","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210116850"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Kouao Laurent Kouadio","raw_affiliation_strings":["Hunan Key Laboratory of Nonferrous Resources and Geological Hazards Exploration, Changsha, China","School of Geosciences and Info-physics, Central South University, Changsha, China"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7259-7254","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Hunan Key Laboratory of Nonferrous Resources and Geological Hazards Exploration, Changsha, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210116850"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Geosciences and Info-physics, Central South University, Changsha, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I139660479"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5137993929","display_name":"Rong Liu (202610)","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1302918504","display_name":"Planetary Science Institute","ror":"https://ror.org/05vvg9554","country_code":"US","type":"nonprofit","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1302918504"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I139660479","display_name":"Central South University","ror":"https://ror.org/00f1zfq44","country_code":"CN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I139660479"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210116850","display_name":"Hunan Nonferrous Metal Research Institute","ror":"https://ror.org/025c9az97","country_code":"CN","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210116850"]}],"countries":["CN","US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Rong Liu","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States of America","Hunan Key Laboratory of Nonferrous Resources and Geological Hazards Exploration, Changsha, China","School of Geosciences and Info-physics, Central South University, Changsha, China"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2937-4658","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States of America","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1302918504"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Hunan Key Laboratory of Nonferrous Resources and Geological Hazards Exploration, Changsha, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210116850"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Geosciences and Info-physics, Central South University, Changsha, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I139660479"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5137206263","display_name":"Kouam\u00e9 Gb\u00e8l\u00e8 Hermann Loukou","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I70348806","display_name":"Universit\u00e9 Polytechnique Hauts-de-France","ror":"https://ror.org/02ezch769","country_code":"FR","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I70348806"]}],"countries":["FR"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Kouam\u00e9 Gb\u00e8l\u00e8 Hermann Loukou","raw_affiliation_strings":["UFR des Sciences G\u00e9ologiques et Mini\u00e8res, D\u00e9partement de G\u00e9ophysique Appliqu\u00e9e, Universit\u00e9 Polytechnique de Man, BP20, C\u00f4te d\u2019Ivoire"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0001-0999-799X","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"UFR des Sciences G\u00e9ologiques et Mini\u00e8res, D\u00e9partement de G\u00e9ophysique Appliqu\u00e9e, Universit\u00e9 Polytechnique de Man, BP20, C\u00f4te d\u2019Ivoire","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I70348806"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5137920965","display_name":"Wenxiang Liu","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1302918504","display_name":"Planetary Science Institute","ror":"https://ror.org/05vvg9554","country_code":"US","type":"nonprofit","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1302918504"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210090744","display_name":"Guangzhou Marine Geological Survey","ror":"https://ror.org/00jaxam28","country_code":"CN","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2799486974","https://openalex.org/I4210090744"]}],"countries":["CN","US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Wenxiang Liu","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States of America","Guangdong Geological Bureau, Guangzhou, China"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0000-5420-9924","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States of America","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1302918504"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Guangdong Geological Bureau, Guangzhou, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210090744"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5113393809","display_name":"Zhanhui Qing","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210090744","display_name":"Guangzhou Marine Geological Survey","ror":"https://ror.org/00jaxam28","country_code":"CN","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2799486974","https://openalex.org/I4210090744"]}],"countries":["CN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Zhanhui Qing","raw_affiliation_strings":["Guangdong Geological Environment Monitoring Station, Guangzhou, China"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0002-0623-4062","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Guangdong Geological Environment Monitoring Station, Guangzhou, China","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210090744"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5137944562","display_name":"Zhuo Liu","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8709-4131"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1302918504","display_name":"Planetary Science Institute","ror":"https://ror.org/05vvg9554","country_code":"US","type":"nonprofit","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1302918504"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Zhuo Liu","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States of America"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8709-4131","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States of America","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1302918504"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":3,"institutions_distinct_count":6,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5137920965","https://openalex.org/A5137944562","https://openalex.org/A5137993929"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1302918504","https://openalex.org/I139660479","https://openalex.org/I4210090744","https://openalex.org/I4210116850"],"apc_list":{"value":3400,"currency":"USD","value_usd":3400},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.85739465,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":"204","issue":null,"first_page":"107052","last_page":"107052"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10466","display_name":"Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations","score":0.32710000872612,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1902","display_name":"Atmospheric Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10466","display_name":"Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations","score":0.32710000872612,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1902","display_name":"Atmospheric Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.10769999772310257,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11303","display_name":"Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference","score":0.04129999876022339,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probabilistic-logic","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","score":0.5723000168800354},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bayesian-probability","display_name":"Bayesian probability","score":0.3095000088214874},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/statistical-model","display_name":"Statistical model","score":0.2971999943256378},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/event","display_name":"Event (particle physics)","score":0.2937000095844269},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/interpretation","display_name":"Interpretation (philosophy)","score":0.2824000120162964}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49937458","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2599292","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","level":2,"score":0.5723000168800354},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.5584999918937683},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.4277999997138977},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C124101348","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q172491","display_name":"Data mining","level":1,"score":0.40849998593330383},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.33090001344680786},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107673813","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812534","display_name":"Bayesian probability","level":2,"score":0.3095000088214874},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C114289077","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3284399","display_name":"Statistical model","level":2,"score":0.2971999943256378},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779662365","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5416694","display_name":"Event (particle physics)","level":2,"score":0.2937000095844269},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C527412718","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q855395","display_name":"Interpretation (philosophy)","level":2,"score":0.2824000120162964},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776401178","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12050496","display_name":"Feature (linguistics)","level":2,"score":0.2687999904155731}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2026.107052","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2026.107052","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S113611870","display_name":"Environmental Modelling & Software","issn_l":"1364-8152","issn":["1364-8152","1873-6726"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320990","host_organization_name":"Elsevier BV","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Elsevier BV"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Environmental Modelling & Software","raw_type":"journal-article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321001","display_name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","ror":"https://ror.org/01h0zpd94"}],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":36,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1981386549","https://openalex.org/W1993947856","https://openalex.org/W2001278639","https://openalex.org/W2011377877","https://openalex.org/W2049354691","https://openalex.org/W2130715829","https://openalex.org/W2296521892","https://openalex.org/W2303083012","https://openalex.org/W2888740403","https://openalex.org/W2944172977","https://openalex.org/W2978928901","https://openalex.org/W2991362945","https://openalex.org/W3016061525","https://openalex.org/W3034051414","https://openalex.org/W3042766780","https://openalex.org/W3097272497","https://openalex.org/W3111744933","https://openalex.org/W3171884590","https://openalex.org/W3202886953","https://openalex.org/W4251244897","https://openalex.org/W4281858228","https://openalex.org/W4283323492","https://openalex.org/W4379470073","https://openalex.org/W4382721750","https://openalex.org/W4387342987","https://openalex.org/W4390927053","https://openalex.org/W4402364299","https://openalex.org/W4404307820","https://openalex.org/W4404592957","https://openalex.org/W4405643356","https://openalex.org/W4406455483","https://openalex.org/W4408077289","https://openalex.org/W4414001738","https://openalex.org/W4414082895","https://openalex.org/W4414090844","https://openalex.org/W4417528368"],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":null,"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-06-19T15:47:20.252518","created_date":"2026-06-06T00:00:00"}