{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7134908378","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2026.106954","title":"Explainable sequence-aware deep learning based decadal shoreline modelling in the Southern Baltic until 2050","display_name":"Explainable sequence-aware deep learning based decadal shoreline modelling in the Southern Baltic until 2050","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-03-10","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7134908378","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2026.106954"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2026.106954","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2026.106954","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S113611870","display_name":"Environmental Modelling & Software","issn_l":"1364-8152","issn":["1364-8152","1873-6726"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320990","host_organization_name":"Elsevier BV","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Elsevier BV"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Environmental Modelling & Software","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"hybrid","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2026.106954","any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5076474813","display_name":"Kamran Tanwari","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4811-2613"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I104588304","display_name":"University of Szczecin","ror":"https://ror.org/05vmz5070","country_code":"PL","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I104588304"]}],"countries":["PL"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Kamran Tanwari","raw_affiliation_strings":["Doctoral School, University of Szczecin, Mickiewicza 18, 70-383 Szczecin, Poland","Institute of Marine and Environmental Sciences, University of Szczecin, Mickiewicza 16, 70-383 Szczecin, Poland"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Doctoral School, University of Szczecin, Mickiewicza 18, 70-383 Szczecin, Poland","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I104588304"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Institute of Marine and Environmental Sciences, University of Szczecin, Mickiewicza 16, 70-383 Szczecin, Poland","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I104588304"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5124270523","display_name":"Xiaohao Shi","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I104588304","display_name":"University of Szczecin","ror":"https://ror.org/05vmz5070","country_code":"PL","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I104588304"]}],"countries":["PL"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Xiaohao Shi","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Hydrobiology, Institute of Biology, University of Szczecin, W\u0105ska 13, 71-712 Szczecin, Poland","Doctoral School, University of Szczecin, Mickiewicza 18, 70-383 Szczecin, Poland"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Hydrobiology, Institute of Biology, University of Szczecin, W\u0105ska 13, 71-712 Szczecin, Poland","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I104588304"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Doctoral School, University of Szczecin, Mickiewicza 18, 70-383 Szczecin, Poland","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I104588304"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5069795551","display_name":"J. \u015aledziowski","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I104588304","display_name":"University of Szczecin","ror":"https://ror.org/05vmz5070","country_code":"PL","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I104588304"]}],"countries":["PL"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Jakub \u015aledziowski","raw_affiliation_strings":["Institute of Marine and Environmental Sciences, University of Szczecin, Mickiewicza 16, 70-383 Szczecin, Poland"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Institute of Marine and Environmental Sciences, University of Szczecin, Mickiewicza 16, 70-383 Szczecin, Poland","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I104588304"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5004537201","display_name":"Andrzej Giza","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5459-9261"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I104588304","display_name":"University of Szczecin","ror":"https://ror.org/05vmz5070","country_code":"PL","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I104588304"]}],"countries":["PL"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Andrzej Giza","raw_affiliation_strings":["Institute of Marine and Environmental Sciences, University of Szczecin, Mickiewicza 16, 70-383 Szczecin, Poland"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Institute of Marine and Environmental Sciences, University of Szczecin, Mickiewicza 16, 70-383 Szczecin, Poland","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I104588304"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5122911687","display_name":"Pawe\u0142 Terefenko","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I104588304","display_name":"University of Szczecin","ror":"https://ror.org/05vmz5070","country_code":"PL","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I104588304"]}],"countries":["PL"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Pawe\u0142 Terefenko","raw_affiliation_strings":["Institute of Marine and Environmental Sciences, University of Szczecin, Mickiewicza 16, 70-383 Szczecin, Poland"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Institute of Marine and Environmental Sciences, University of Szczecin, Mickiewicza 16, 70-383 Szczecin, Poland","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I104588304"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":5,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5076474813"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I104588304"],"apc_list":{"value":3400,"currency":"USD","value_usd":3400},"apc_paid":{"value":3400,"currency":"USD","value_usd":3400},"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.54883513,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":"200","issue":null,"first_page":"106954","last_page":"106954"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10647","display_name":"Coastal and Marine Dynamics","score":0.46810001134872437,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1904","display_name":"Earth-Surface Processes"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10647","display_name":"Coastal and Marine Dynamics","score":0.46810001134872437,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1904","display_name":"Earth-Surface Processes"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10255","display_name":"Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes","score":0.2020999938249588,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1910","display_name":"Oceanography"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11483","display_name":"Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research","score":0.09319999814033508,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1902","display_name":"Atmospheric Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/shore","display_name":"Shore","score":0.6773999929428101},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/interpretability","display_name":"Interpretability","score":0.5996999740600586},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/climate-change","display_name":"Climate change","score":0.5533999800682068},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/coastal-erosion","display_name":"Coastal erosion","score":0.5291000008583069},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/erosion","display_name":"Erosion","score":0.413100004196167},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/deep-learning","display_name":"Deep learning","score":0.4025999903678894}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C152382732","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q468756","display_name":"Shore","level":2,"score":0.6773999929428101},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781067378","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q17027399","display_name":"Interpretability","level":2,"score":0.5996999740600586},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C132651083","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7942","display_name":"Climate change","level":2,"score":0.5533999800682068},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154261466","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1542312","display_name":"Coastal erosion","level":3,"score":0.5291000008583069},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C123157820","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q80026","display_name":"Erosion","level":2,"score":0.413100004196167},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C108583219","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q197536","display_name":"Deep learning","level":2,"score":0.4025999903678894},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49204034","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q52139","display_name":"Climatology","level":1,"score":0.39899998903274536},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39432304","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188847","display_name":"Environmental science","level":0,"score":0.38089999556541443},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105306849","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q81054","display_name":"Storm","level":2,"score":0.36970001459121704},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C100970517","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q52107","display_name":"Physical geography","level":1,"score":0.3659000098705292},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C50644808","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q192776","display_name":"Artificial neural network","level":2,"score":0.3652999997138977},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2986433049","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q545","display_name":"Baltic sea","level":2,"score":0.33070001006126404},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107826830","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q929380","display_name":"Environmental resource management","level":1,"score":0.31369999051094055},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C115343472","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7942","display_name":"Global warming","level":3,"score":0.3095000088214874},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C139945424","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1940696","display_name":"Mean squared error","level":2,"score":0.2980000078678131},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127313418","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1069","display_name":"Geology","level":0,"score":0.29260000586509705},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C147581598","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q729429","display_name":"Extreme value theory","level":2,"score":0.2651999890804291},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111368507","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q43518","display_name":"Oceanography","level":1,"score":0.2549000084400177}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2026.106954","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2026.106954","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S113611870","display_name":"Environmental Modelling & Software","issn_l":"1364-8152","issn":["1364-8152","1873-6726"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320990","host_organization_name":"Elsevier BV","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Elsevier BV"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Environmental Modelling & Software","raw_type":"journal-article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2026.106954","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2026.106954","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S113611870","display_name":"Environmental Modelling & Software","issn_l":"1364-8152","issn":["1364-8152","1873-6726"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320990","host_organization_name":"Elsevier BV","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Elsevier BV"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Environmental Modelling & Software","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/14","display_name":"Life below water","score":0.5009019374847412}],"awards":[],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320322733","display_name":"Ministerstwo Edukacji i Nauki","ror":"https://ror.org/05dwvd537"}],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":66,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W341018141","https://openalex.org/W1973132854","https://openalex.org/W1990561025","https://openalex.org/W2023429321","https://openalex.org/W2193346277","https://openalex.org/W2738809754","https://openalex.org/W2885195348","https://openalex.org/W2937171141","https://openalex.org/W2963183303","https://openalex.org/W3001435799","https://openalex.org/W3004760715","https://openalex.org/W3015420071","https://openalex.org/W3029487982","https://openalex.org/W3097747073","https://openalex.org/W3112690790","https://openalex.org/W3138995847","https://openalex.org/W3154148933","https://openalex.org/W3193510724","https://openalex.org/W3205832097","https://openalex.org/W4200023355","https://openalex.org/W4213197183","https://openalex.org/W4220960159","https://openalex.org/W4225261029","https://openalex.org/W4225809728","https://openalex.org/W4280504002","https://openalex.org/W4289515921","https://openalex.org/W4295749486","https://openalex.org/W4303983087","https://openalex.org/W4316037268","https://openalex.org/W4317936154","https://openalex.org/W4318962002","https://openalex.org/W4376643869","https://openalex.org/W4380742754","https://openalex.org/W4384499060","https://openalex.org/W4386006826","https://openalex.org/W4386434910","https://openalex.org/W4387850008","https://openalex.org/W4388686047","https://openalex.org/W4389011046","https://openalex.org/W4391667272","https://openalex.org/W4391735111","https://openalex.org/W4391992269","https://openalex.org/W4392387442","https://openalex.org/W4396710677","https://openalex.org/W4396822711","https://openalex.org/W4400624723","https://openalex.org/W4402249527","https://openalex.org/W4402262568","https://openalex.org/W4402549591","https://openalex.org/W4405571084","https://openalex.org/W4405987712","https://openalex.org/W4406773700","https://openalex.org/W4407901049","https://openalex.org/W4408160114","https://openalex.org/W4409284541","https://openalex.org/W4409497202","https://openalex.org/W4410069173","https://openalex.org/W4410196869","https://openalex.org/W4410250105","https://openalex.org/W4411978052","https://openalex.org/W4413007956","https://openalex.org/W4413219146","https://openalex.org/W4413915971","https://openalex.org/W4414120077","https://openalex.org/W4414520980","https://openalex.org/W4416901677"],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Understanding":[0],"future":[1],"shoreline":[2,158,174],"evolution":[3],"is":[4,111,181,193],"fundamental":[5],"to":[6,56],"developing":[7],"adaptive":[8],"coastal":[9,148],"management":[10],"strategies":[11],"under":[12,37],"climate":[13],"change":[14,159],"scenarios.":[15],"This":[16,126],"study":[17],"analyzes":[18],"the":[19,58,75,114,196],"Southern":[20,197],"Baltic":[21,145,198],"Sea\u2019s":[22,146],"\u223c37-km":[23],"stretch":[24],"comprising":[25],"Usedom":[26],"and":[27,40,65,95,123,138,186],"Wolin":[28],"islands,":[29],"where":[30],"sandy":[31],"coastlines":[32],"face":[33],"intensifying":[34],"erosion":[35,110,180,191],"threats":[36],"rising":[38],"anthropogenic":[39],"climatic":[41],"pressures.":[42],"We":[43],"introduce":[44],"an":[45,167],"explainable":[46],"Long":[47],"Short-Term":[48],"Memory":[49],"Recurrent":[50],"Neural":[51],"Network":[52],"(LSTM-RNN)":[53],"framework":[54,128],"designed":[55],"bridge":[57],"gap":[59],"between":[60],"Deep":[61,102],"Learning":[62],"(DL)":[63],"performance":[64],"physical":[66],"interpretability":[67],"in":[68],"decadal":[69,157,173],"forecasting.":[70],"The":[71,163],"results":[72],"show":[73,179],"that":[74,109],"best":[76,164],"model":[77,155,165],"achieves":[78,166],"a":[79,130,140],"Root":[80],"Mean":[81,88],"Squared":[82],"Error":[83,90],"(RMSE)":[84],"of":[85,92,100,117,170],"10.40":[86],"m,":[87,94],"Absolute":[89],"(MAE)":[91],"7.13":[93],"R-squared":[96,168],"(R":[97],"2":[98],")":[99],"0.55.":[101],"SHapley":[103],"Additive":[104],"exPlanation":[105],"(DeepSHAP)":[106],"attribution":[107],"reveals":[108],"driven":[112,182],"by":[113,183,199],"compound":[115],"interaction":[116],"sea-level":[118],"rise":[119],"(SLR),":[120],"storm":[121],"surges,":[122],"extreme":[124,187],"waves.":[125,188],"transferable":[127],"represents":[129],"significant":[131],"methodological":[132],"contribution,":[133],"enhancing":[134],"regional":[135],"early-warning":[136],"systems":[137],"providing":[139],"robust,":[141],"\"white-box\"":[142],"approach":[143],"for":[144,172,195],"operational":[147],"management.":[149],"\u2022":[150,162,176,189],"A":[151],"sequence-aware":[152],"neural":[153],"network":[154],"forecasts":[156],"until":[160],"2050.":[161,200],"value":[169],"0.55":[171],"change.":[175],"Explainable":[177],"models":[178],"sea":[184],"levels":[185],"Widespread":[190],"intensification":[192],"projected":[194]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-04-09T08:11:56.329763","created_date":"2026-03-12T00:00:00"}