{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7134176542","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2026.106942","title":"Untethered from earthly constraints: A spatial seven-day ahead machine-learning forest fuel moisture forecasting system, independent of real-time sensor networks","display_name":"Untethered from earthly constraints: A spatial seven-day ahead machine-learning forest fuel moisture forecasting system, independent of real-time sensor networks","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-03-08","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7134176542","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2026.106942"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2026.106942","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2026.106942","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S113611870","display_name":"Environmental Modelling & Software","issn_l":"1364-8152","issn":["1364-8152","1873-6726"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320990","host_organization_name":"Elsevier BV","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Elsevier BV"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Environmental Modelling &amp; Software","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"hybrid","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2026.106942","any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5092497657","display_name":"Thomas Keeble","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6084-1595"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I165779595","display_name":"The University of Melbourne","ror":"https://ror.org/01ej9dk98","country_code":"AU","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I165779595"]}],"countries":["AU"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Thomas Keeble","raw_affiliation_strings":["School of Agriculture, Food and Ecosystem Sciences, Faculty of Science, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria 3010, Australia"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Agriculture, Food and Ecosystem Sciences, Faculty of Science, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria 3010, Australia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I165779595"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5128363242","display_name":"Christopher Sean Lyell","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I165779595","display_name":"The University of Melbourne","ror":"https://ror.org/01ej9dk98","country_code":"AU","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I165779595"]}],"countries":["AU"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Christopher Sean Lyell","raw_affiliation_strings":["School of Agriculture, Food and Ecosystem Sciences, Faculty of Science, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria 3010, Australia"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Agriculture, Food and Ecosystem Sciences, Faculty of Science, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria 3010, Australia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I165779595"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5052115696","display_name":"Tim Gazzard","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I2801037857","display_name":"Government of Victoria","ror":"https://ror.org/02xvc5r05","country_code":"AU","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2801037857"]}],"countries":["AU"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Tim Gazzard","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Environment, Energy and Climate Action, Victorian Government, Australia"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Environment, Energy and Climate Action, Victorian Government, Australia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I2801037857"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5128371142","display_name":"Thomas James Duff","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210116675","display_name":"WA Country Health Service","ror":"https://ror.org/02ma46909","country_code":"AU","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2799506148","https://openalex.org/I4210116675"]}],"countries":["AU"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Thomas James Duff","raw_affiliation_strings":["Country Fire Authority, Victoria, Australia"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Country Fire Authority, Victoria, Australia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210116675"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5091458567","display_name":"Gary Sheridan","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1755-7334"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I165779595","display_name":"The University of Melbourne","ror":"https://ror.org/01ej9dk98","country_code":"AU","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I165779595"]}],"countries":["AU"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Gary Sheridan","raw_affiliation_strings":["School of Agriculture, Food and Ecosystem Sciences, Faculty of Science, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria 3010, Australia"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Agriculture, Food and Ecosystem Sciences, Faculty of Science, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria 3010, Australia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I165779595"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":5,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5092497657"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I165779595"],"apc_list":{"value":3400,"currency":"USD","value_usd":3400},"apc_paid":{"value":3400,"currency":"USD","value_usd":3400},"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.52657668,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":"200","issue":null,"first_page":"106942","last_page":"106942"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11312","display_name":"Soil Moisture and Remote Sensing","score":0.20329999923706055,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2305","display_name":"Environmental Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11312","display_name":"Soil Moisture and Remote Sensing","score":0.20329999923706055,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2305","display_name":"Environmental Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10555","display_name":"Fire effects on ecosystems","score":0.09709999710321426,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10266","display_name":"Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics","score":0.08129999786615372,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/artificial-neural-network","display_name":"Artificial neural network","score":0.3264999985694885},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/moisture","display_name":"Moisture","score":0.3070000112056732},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/wireless-sensor-network","display_name":"Wireless sensor network","score":0.2777000069618225},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/global-positioning-system","display_name":"Global Positioning System","score":0.2651999890804291},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/weather-forecasting","display_name":"Weather forecasting","score":0.24220000207424164}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39432304","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188847","display_name":"Environmental science","level":0,"score":0.5669000148773193},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C153294291","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25261","display_name":"Meteorology","level":1,"score":0.41999998688697815},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C62649853","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q199687","display_name":"Remote sensing","level":1,"score":0.4101000130176544},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C50644808","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q192776","display_name":"Artificial neural network","level":2,"score":0.3264999985694885},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C176864760","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q217651","display_name":"Moisture","level":2,"score":0.3070000112056732},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C24590314","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q336038","display_name":"Wireless sensor network","level":2,"score":0.2777000069618225},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C60229501","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q18822","display_name":"Global Positioning System","level":2,"score":0.2651999890804291},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C21001229","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q182868","display_name":"Weather forecasting","level":2,"score":0.24220000207424164},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138827492","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6661985","display_name":"Data processing","level":2,"score":0.2345000058412552},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C99498987","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2210247","display_name":"Noise (video)","level":3,"score":0.22920000553131104}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2026.106942","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2026.106942","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S113611870","display_name":"Environmental Modelling & Software","issn_l":"1364-8152","issn":["1364-8152","1873-6726"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320990","host_organization_name":"Elsevier BV","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Elsevier BV"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Environmental Modelling &amp; Software","raw_type":"journal-article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2026.106942","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2026.106942","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S113611870","display_name":"Environmental Modelling & Software","issn_l":"1364-8152","issn":["1364-8152","1873-6726"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320990","host_organization_name":"Elsevier BV","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Elsevier BV"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Environmental Modelling &amp; Software","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320311447","display_name":"Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning, State Government of Victoria","ror":"https://ror.org/03m3hse57"}],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":72,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W174598607","https://openalex.org/W1555585673","https://openalex.org/W1980979142","https://openalex.org/W1995413530","https://openalex.org/W2003747372","https://openalex.org/W2004829479","https://openalex.org/W2015702592","https://openalex.org/W2038484977","https://openalex.org/W2041960396","https://openalex.org/W2046564560","https://openalex.org/W2047988498","https://openalex.org/W2059995750","https://openalex.org/W2065969377","https://openalex.org/W2077788241","https://openalex.org/W2082379296","https://openalex.org/W2113508837","https://openalex.org/W2123480948","https://openalex.org/W2140781097","https://openalex.org/W2149763719","https://openalex.org/W2149920440","https://openalex.org/W2161366870","https://openalex.org/W2172519315","https://openalex.org/W2212426059","https://openalex.org/W2253540895","https://openalex.org/W2287992427","https://openalex.org/W2505517402","https://openalex.org/W2516603452","https://openalex.org/W2566574403","https://openalex.org/W2582566895","https://openalex.org/W2582992192","https://openalex.org/W2590779313","https://openalex.org/W2605676432","https://openalex.org/W2791526507","https://openalex.org/W2800078340","https://openalex.org/W2945092733","https://openalex.org/W3004878516","https://openalex.org/W3032913569","https://openalex.org/W3037211433","https://openalex.org/W3039970217","https://openalex.org/W3042491191","https://openalex.org/W3085987085","https://openalex.org/W3113468762","https://openalex.org/W3125682504","https://openalex.org/W3133837492","https://openalex.org/W3183347513","https://openalex.org/W3194640668","https://openalex.org/W3213800655","https://openalex.org/W4200256660","https://openalex.org/W4210312992","https://openalex.org/W4211199814","https://openalex.org/W4221058206","https://openalex.org/W4224091837","https://openalex.org/W4224936427","https://openalex.org/W4232311936","https://openalex.org/W4292491782","https://openalex.org/W4296103519","https://openalex.org/W4296569549","https://openalex.org/W4309370897","https://openalex.org/W4309840120","https://openalex.org/W4328030982","https://openalex.org/W4361218963","https://openalex.org/W4378450566","https://openalex.org/W4393319450","https://openalex.org/W4394614104","https://openalex.org/W4396699447","https://openalex.org/W4399625175","https://openalex.org/W4402754402","https://openalex.org/W4403838409","https://openalex.org/W4403998079","https://openalex.org/W4405936894","https://openalex.org/W4409190067","https://openalex.org/W7102395280"],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Dead":[0],"fuel":[1,28,82],"moisture":[2,83],"content":[3],"(DFMC)":[4],"critically":[5],"influences":[6],"wildfire":[7,144,182],"behaviour,":[8],"and":[9,54,77,111,116,147],"its":[10],"modelling":[11,20],"underpins":[12],"many":[13],"fire":[14,136],"management":[15,138],"decision":[16],"support":[17],"systems.":[18],"Recent":[19],"advances":[21],"have":[22],"enabled":[23],"accurate":[24],"forecast":[25,63],"of":[26,109,194],"point-scale":[27],"moisture,":[29],"but":[30],"their":[31],"reliance":[32],"on":[33],"continuous":[34,61],"real-time":[35,67],"sensor":[36,46,68,72,178],"functionality":[37],"creates":[38],"operational":[39,135],"vulnerabilities":[40,180],"when":[41],"sensors":[42],"may":[43],"fail.":[44],"Maintaining":[45],"networks":[47],"across":[48,124,191],"large,":[49],"remote":[50],"domains":[51],"is":[52],"costly":[53],"unreliable.":[55],"Therefore,":[56],"we":[57],"developed":[58],"a":[59,131],"spatially":[60],"DFMC":[62,104,161],"system":[64],"that":[65],"eliminates":[66,177],"dependency":[69],"by":[70,139],"replacing":[71],"initialisation":[73],"with":[74,106],"remotely":[75],"sensed":[76],"modelled":[78],"proxies":[79],"for":[80,113,143,157],"landscape":[81],"states.":[84],"Using":[85],"23,354":[86,166],"site-day":[87],"observations":[88],"from":[89,168],"27":[90,169],"forested":[91,125,195],"sites":[92],"in":[93,134],"Victoria,":[94],"Australia,":[95],"our":[96],"machine":[97],"learning":[98],"model":[99,156],"produces":[100],"7-day":[101],"ahead":[102],"sub-canopy":[103],"forecasts":[105,123,187],"median":[107],"RMSE":[108,190],"11.5%":[110],"12.8%":[112],"day":[114],"1":[115],"7.":[117],"The":[118],"approach":[119,176],"delivers":[120],"reliable":[121],"spatial":[122,159],"landscapes":[126],"without":[127],"sensor-dependent":[128],"vulnerabilities,":[129],"representing":[130],"significant":[132],"advancement":[133],"risk":[137],"providing":[140],"comprehensive":[141],"coverage":[142],"suppression":[145],"planning":[146],"prescribed":[148],"burning.":[149],"\u2022":[150,163,174,184],"We":[151],"present":[152],"the":[153],"first":[154],"ML":[155],"sensor-independent":[158],"forest":[160,171],"forecasts.":[162],"Training":[164],"used":[165],"site-days":[167],"below-canopy":[170],"monitoring":[172],"sites.":[173],"Our":[175],"failure":[179],"during":[181],"events.":[183],"Day":[185],"1-7":[186],"achieve":[188],"11.5-12.8%":[189],"150,000km":[192],"2":[193],"landscape.":[196]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-04-09T08:11:56.329763","created_date":"2026-03-09T00:00:00"}
