{"id":"https://openalex.org/W3132482368","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.104993","title":"Evaluating the ability of numerical models to capture important shifts in environmental time series: A fuzzy change point approach","display_name":"Evaluating the ability of numerical models to capture important shifts in environmental time series: A fuzzy change point approach","publication_year":2021,"publication_date":"2021-02-21","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W3132482368","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.104993","mag":"3132482368"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.104993","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.104993","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S113611870","display_name":"Environmental Modelling & Software","issn_l":"1364-8152","issn":["1364-8152","1873-6726"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320990","host_organization_name":"Elsevier BV","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Elsevier BV"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Environmental Modelling & Software","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"hybrid","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.104993","any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5006728163","display_name":"Michael Hollaway","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0386-2696"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210092773","display_name":"UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology","ror":"https://ror.org/00pggkr55","country_code":"GB","type":"funder","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210092773"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"M.J. Hollaway","raw_affiliation_strings":["UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Bailrigg, Lancaster, UK"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Bailrigg, Lancaster, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210092773"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5002877874","display_name":"Peter A. Henrys","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4758-1482"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210092773","display_name":"UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology","ror":"https://ror.org/00pggkr55","country_code":"GB","type":"funder","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210092773"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"P.A. Henrys","raw_affiliation_strings":["UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Bailrigg, Lancaster, UK"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Bailrigg, Lancaster, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210092773"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5075851671","display_name":"Rebecca Killick","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0583-3960"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I67415387","display_name":"Lancaster University","ror":"https://ror.org/04f2nsd36","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I67415387"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"R. Killick","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Maths and Statistics, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Maths and Statistics, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I67415387"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5068300114","display_name":"Amber Leeson","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8720-9808"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I67415387","display_name":"Lancaster University","ror":"https://ror.org/04f2nsd36","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I67415387"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"A. Leeson","raw_affiliation_strings":["Data Science Institute, Lancaster University, Bailrigg, Lancaster, UK","Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Bailrigg, Lancaster, UK"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Data Science Institute, Lancaster University, Bailrigg, Lancaster, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I67415387"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Bailrigg, Lancaster, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I67415387"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5004683605","display_name":"John Watkins","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3518-8918"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210092773","display_name":"UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology","ror":"https://ror.org/00pggkr55","country_code":"GB","type":"funder","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210092773"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"J. Watkins","raw_affiliation_strings":["UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Bailrigg, Lancaster, UK"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Bailrigg, Lancaster, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210092773"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5006728163"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210092773"],"apc_list":{"value":3400,"currency":"USD","value_usd":3400},"apc_paid":{"value":3400,"currency":"USD","value_usd":3400},"fwci":1.1929,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":12,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.76809583,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"139","issue":null,"first_page":"104993","last_page":"104993"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10029","display_name":"Climate variability and models","score":0.9984999895095825,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10029","display_name":"Climate variability and models","score":0.9984999895095825,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10466","display_name":"Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations","score":0.9961000084877014,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1902","display_name":"Atmospheric Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11588","display_name":"Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics","score":0.9828000068664551,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/metric","display_name":"Metric (unit)","score":0.7033497095108032},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/fuzzy-logic","display_name":"Fuzzy logic","score":0.6500193476676941},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.5635172724723816},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/similarity","display_name":"Similarity (geometry)","score":0.5591974258422852},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/data-mining","display_name":"Data mining","score":0.5568046569824219},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/change-detection","display_name":"Change detection","score":0.514982283115387},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/scale","display_name":"Scale (ratio)","score":0.509734570980072},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/point-cloud","display_name":"Point cloud","score":0.46459412574768066},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/series","display_name":"Series (stratigraphy)","score":0.4591180682182312},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/point","display_name":"Point (geometry)","score":0.44267743825912476},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/artificial-intelligence","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","score":0.35643160343170166},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/machine-learning","display_name":"Machine learning","score":0.3201955258846283},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.23420339822769165},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/geography","display_name":"Geography","score":0.16540396213531494},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/engineering","display_name":"Engineering","score":0.15574583411216736},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/cartography","display_name":"Cartography","score":0.1243041455745697},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/geology","display_name":"Geology","score":0.09066540002822876}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C176217482","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q860554","display_name":"Metric (unit)","level":2,"score":0.7033497095108032},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C58166","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q224821","display_name":"Fuzzy logic","level":2,"score":0.6500193476676941},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.5635172724723816},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C103278499","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q254465","display_name":"Similarity (geometry)","level":3,"score":0.5591974258422852},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C124101348","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q172491","display_name":"Data mining","level":1,"score":0.5568046569824219},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C203595873","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25389927","display_name":"Change detection","level":2,"score":0.514982283115387},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778755073","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q10858537","display_name":"Scale (ratio)","level":2,"score":0.509734570980072},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C131979681","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1899648","display_name":"Point cloud","level":2,"score":0.46459412574768066},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C143724316","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q312468","display_name":"Series (stratigraphy)","level":2,"score":0.4591180682182312},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C28719098","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q44946","display_name":"Point (geometry)","level":2,"score":0.44267743825912476},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.35643160343170166},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.3201955258846283},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.23420339822769165},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.16540396213531494},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127413603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11023","display_name":"Engineering","level":0,"score":0.15574583411216736},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C58640448","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q42515","display_name":"Cartography","level":1,"score":0.1243041455745697},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127313418","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1069","display_name":"Geology","level":0,"score":0.09066540002822876},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2524010","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8087","display_name":"Geometry","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C21547014","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1423657","display_name":"Operations management","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C115961682","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q860623","display_name":"Image (mathematics)","level":2,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151730666","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7205","display_name":"Paleontology","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.104993","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.104993","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S113611870","display_name":"Environmental Modelling & Software","issn_l":"1364-8152","issn":["1364-8152","1873-6726"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320990","host_organization_name":"Elsevier BV","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Elsevier BV"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Environmental Modelling & Software","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:nora.nerc.ac.uk:529832","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":null,"pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400758","display_name":"NERC Open Research Archive (Natural Environment Research Council)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I141816643","host_organization_name":"Natural Environment Research Council","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I141816643"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"Publication - Article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.104993","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.104993","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S113611870","display_name":"Environmental Modelling & Software","issn_l":"1364-8152","issn":["1364-8152","1873-6726"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320990","host_organization_name":"Elsevier BV","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Elsevier BV"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Environmental Modelling & Software","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.7200000286102295,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/15","display_name":"Life in Land"}],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G1821415861","display_name":"UK Status, Change and Projections of the Environment (UK-SCaPE)","funder_award_id":"NE/R016429/1","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334631","funder_display_name":"Natural Environment Research Council"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G1904805678","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"EP/R01860X/1","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334627","funder_display_name":"Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G2664551268","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"NE/R016429","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334631","funder_display_name":"Natural Environment Research Council"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G3877002113","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"NE/R016429/1","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334631","funder_display_name":"Natural Environment Research Council"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G4383285738","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"EP/R01860X/1","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334631","funder_display_name":"Natural Environment Research Council"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G461412029","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"NE/S011390/1","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334631","funder_display_name":"Natural Environment Research Council"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G5914583752","display_name":"Data Science of the Natural Environment","funder_award_id":"EP/R01860X/1","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334627","funder_display_name":"Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G5939259534","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"NE/R016429/1","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320320022","funder_display_name":"Sight Research UK"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G8601092817","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"R016429/1","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334631","funder_display_name":"Natural Environment Research Council"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G8665193384","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"NE/S011390/1","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320320022","funder_display_name":"Sight Research UK"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320320022","display_name":"Sight Research UK","ror":"https://ror.org/03z2py885"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334627","display_name":"Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council","ror":"https://ror.org/0439y7842"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334631","display_name":"Natural Environment Research Council","ror":"https://ror.org/02b5d8509"}],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":45,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W170433","https://openalex.org/W366402269","https://openalex.org/W1585154536","https://openalex.org/W1793984240","https://openalex.org/W1861698313","https://openalex.org/W1975684011","https://openalex.org/W1996478169","https://openalex.org/W2014917354","https://openalex.org/W2076444032","https://openalex.org/W2078273711","https://openalex.org/W2081346522","https://openalex.org/W2110112012","https://openalex.org/W2112529735","https://openalex.org/W2115227615","https://openalex.org/W2121745948","https://openalex.org/W2139314206","https://openalex.org/W2140351612","https://openalex.org/W2147746661","https://openalex.org/W2152369329","https://openalex.org/W2152415573","https://openalex.org/W2281406458","https://openalex.org/W2302501749","https://openalex.org/W2552895678","https://openalex.org/W2582743722","https://openalex.org/W2736414866","https://openalex.org/W2773787581","https://openalex.org/W2796068238","https://openalex.org/W2801851968","https://openalex.org/W2810467331","https://openalex.org/W2895029330","https://openalex.org/W2903911135","https://openalex.org/W2912565176","https://openalex.org/W2917880199","https://openalex.org/W2962764966","https://openalex.org/W2964226025","https://openalex.org/W3021019450","https://openalex.org/W3025949386","https://openalex.org/W3082744941","https://openalex.org/W3090347748","https://openalex.org/W4211007335","https://openalex.org/W6600009024","https://openalex.org/W6654337162","https://openalex.org/W6695240614","https://openalex.org/W6766788444","https://openalex.org/W6776381635"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2568858292","https://openalex.org/W1515964938","https://openalex.org/W2389381914","https://openalex.org/W3016928466","https://openalex.org/W4389574804","https://openalex.org/W3181296946","https://openalex.org/W2376528221","https://openalex.org/W2359428812","https://openalex.org/W196800607","https://openalex.org/W2936725271"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Numerical":[0],"models":[1,23,51],"are":[2],"essential":[3],"tools":[4],"for":[5,84,146],"understanding":[6],"the":[7,13,47,70,79,88,94,132],"complex":[8,143],"and":[9,31,42,82],"dynamic":[10],"nature":[11],"of":[12,39,49,69,93,124],"natural":[14],"environment.":[15],"The":[16,61,91,126],"ability":[17,48],"to":[18,45,52,73,111,121,142],"evaluate":[19],"how":[20],"well":[21],"these":[22],"represent":[24],"reality":[25,83],"is":[26,96,129],"critical":[27],"in":[28,59,67,87,116],"their":[29],"use":[30],"future":[32],"development.":[33],"This":[34],"study":[35,101,128],"presents":[36],"a":[37,99,103,135],"combination":[38],"changepoint":[40,71,86],"analysis":[41],"fuzzy":[43,62],"logic":[44],"assess":[46],"numerical":[50,80],"capture":[53],"local":[54],"scale":[55],"temporal":[56],"events":[57],"seen":[58],"observations.":[60],"union":[63],"based":[64],"metric":[65],"factors":[66],"uncertainty":[68],"location":[72],"calculate":[74],"individual":[75],"similarity":[76],"scores":[77],"between":[78],"model":[81,106],"each":[85],"observed":[89,114],"record.":[90],"application":[92],"method":[95],"demonstrated":[97],"through":[98],"case":[100,127],"on":[102],"high":[104],"resolution":[105],"dataset":[107],"which":[108,139],"was":[109],"able":[110],"pick":[112],"up":[113],"changepoints":[115],"temperature":[117],"records":[118],"over":[119],"Greenland":[120],"varying":[122],"degrees":[123],"success.":[125],"presented":[130],"using":[131],"DataLabs":[133],"framework,":[134],"cloud-based":[136],"collaborative":[137],"platform":[138],"simplifies":[140],"access":[141],"statistical":[144],"methods":[145],"environmental":[147],"science":[148],"applications.":[149]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":8},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2025-11-06T03:46:38.306776","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}