{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4301724124","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-30440-3_196","title":"Extreme Events in Socio-economic and Political Complex Systems, Predictability of","display_name":"Extreme Events in Socio-economic and Political Complex Systems, Predictability of","publication_year":2009,"publication_date":"2009-01-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4301724124","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-30440-3_196"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1007/978-0-387-30440-3_196","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-30440-3_196","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306509336","display_name":"Encyclopedia of Complexity and Systems Science","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Encyclopedia of Complexity and Systems Science","raw_type":"book-chapter"},"type":"book-chapter","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5023588606","display_name":"V. I. Keilis\u2010Borok","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210096249","display_name":"Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics","ror":"https://ror.org/00s1q1t70","country_code":"RU","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1313323035","https://openalex.org/I4210096249","https://openalex.org/I4210163714"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I161318765","display_name":"University of California, Los Angeles","ror":"https://ror.org/046rm7j60","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I161318765"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1302918504","display_name":"Planetary Science Institute","ror":"https://ror.org/05vvg9554","country_code":"US","type":"nonprofit","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1302918504"]}],"countries":["RU","US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Vladimir Keilis-Borok","raw_affiliation_strings":["Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics and Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, USA","International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Science, Moscow, Russia"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics and Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1302918504","https://openalex.org/I161318765"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Science, Moscow, Russia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210096249"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5105986499","display_name":"Alexandre Soloviev","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I12323705","display_name":"The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP)","ror":"https://ror.org/009gyvm78","country_code":"IT","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I12323705","https://openalex.org/I1286959531","https://openalex.org/I1293226324","https://openalex.org/I2801247003"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210096249","display_name":"Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics","ror":"https://ror.org/00s1q1t70","country_code":"RU","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1313323035","https://openalex.org/I4210096249","https://openalex.org/I4210163714"]}],"countries":["IT","RU"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Alexandre Soloviev","raw_affiliation_strings":["Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy","International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Science, Moscow, Russia"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I12323705"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Science, Moscow, Russia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210096249"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5082994418","display_name":"Allan J. Lichtman","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I181401687","display_name":"American University","ror":"https://ror.org/052w4zt36","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I181401687"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Allan Lichtman","raw_affiliation_strings":["American University, Washington D.C., USA"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"American University, Washington D.C., USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I181401687"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":3,"institutions_distinct_count":3,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5023588606"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1302918504","https://openalex.org/I161318765","https://openalex.org/I4210096249"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.66909422,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":"3300","last_page":"3317"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10994","display_name":"Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Political Violence","score":0.8288000226020813,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3312","display_name":"Sociology and Political Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10994","display_name":"Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Political Violence","score":0.8288000226020813,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3312","display_name":"Sociology and Political Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11270","display_name":"Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis","score":0.7791000008583069,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T14047","display_name":"Marine and environmental studies","score":0.7680000066757202,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1910","display_name":"Oceanography"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/predictability","display_name":"Predictability","score":0.9604556560516357},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/politics","display_name":"Politics","score":0.5606628060340881},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/political-science","display_name":"Political science","score":0.33232882618904114},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.10861998796463013},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/statistics","display_name":"Statistics","score":0.05955702066421509},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/law","display_name":"Law","score":0.03823760151863098}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C197640229","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2534066","display_name":"Predictability","level":2,"score":0.9604556560516357},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C94625758","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7163","display_name":"Politics","level":2,"score":0.5606628060340881},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17744445","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36442","display_name":"Political science","level":0,"score":0.33232882618904114},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.10861998796463013},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.05955702066421509},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199539241","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7748","display_name":"Law","level":1,"score":0.03823760151863098}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1007/978-0-387-30440-3_196","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-30440-3_196","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306509336","display_name":"Encyclopedia of Complexity and Systems Science","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Encyclopedia of Complexity and Systems Science","raw_type":"book-chapter"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":43,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W39107963","https://openalex.org/W40768172","https://openalex.org/W137845734","https://openalex.org/W583053272","https://openalex.org/W587202145","https://openalex.org/W634635050","https://openalex.org/W1497748637","https://openalex.org/W1561765675","https://openalex.org/W1586339667","https://openalex.org/W1829126295","https://openalex.org/W1859860849","https://openalex.org/W1975655810","https://openalex.org/W1977168544","https://openalex.org/W1977219842","https://openalex.org/W1983373360","https://openalex.org/W2025297319","https://openalex.org/W2034099719","https://openalex.org/W2042081284","https://openalex.org/W2060739131","https://openalex.org/W2062682366","https://openalex.org/W2062709618","https://openalex.org/W2070691118","https://openalex.org/W2074478223","https://openalex.org/W2092029113","https://openalex.org/W2096771160","https://openalex.org/W2100760687","https://openalex.org/W2117924186","https://openalex.org/W2127919771","https://openalex.org/W2321319886","https://openalex.org/W2563700862","https://openalex.org/W2764776338","https://openalex.org/W2800005800","https://openalex.org/W3122791452","https://openalex.org/W3123602744","https://openalex.org/W3124151087","https://openalex.org/W3217806404","https://openalex.org/W4214768508","https://openalex.org/W4231429729","https://openalex.org/W4235183991","https://openalex.org/W4236829973","https://openalex.org/W4239505034","https://openalex.org/W4251598566","https://openalex.org/W4376051614"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2748952813","https://openalex.org/W2726467123","https://openalex.org/W2064726690","https://openalex.org/W4252678288","https://openalex.org/W4254065731","https://openalex.org/W1607297154","https://openalex.org/W4210820789","https://openalex.org/W2913177154","https://openalex.org/W4237782192","https://openalex.org/W4235131201"],"abstract_inverted_index":null,"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2025-11-06T03:46:38.306776","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}