{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7141819097","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s42979-026-04823-x","title":"Hybrid Kalman Filter-Kolmogorov-Arnold Network Using Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations for Photovoltaic Power Forecasting","display_name":"Hybrid Kalman Filter-Kolmogorov-Arnold Network Using Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations for Photovoltaic Power Forecasting","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-03-28","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7141819097","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s42979-026-04823-x"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1007/s42979-026-04823-x","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s42979-026-04823-x","pdf_url":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s42979-026-04823-x.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210174798","display_name":"SN Computer Science","issn_l":"2661-8907","issn":["2661-8907","2662-995X"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319965","host_organization_name":"Springer Nature","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"SN Computer Science","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"hybrid","oa_url":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s42979-026-04823-x.pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5086045354","display_name":"J. J. S. Carvalho","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I141596103","display_name":"University of Lisbon","ror":"https://ror.org/01c27hj86","country_code":"PT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I141596103"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210127031","display_name":"Uninova","ror":"https://ror.org/0373te416","country_code":"PT","type":"funder","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210127031"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I88596544","display_name":"Universidade Lus\u00f3fona","ror":"https://ror.org/05xxfer42","country_code":"PT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I88596544"]}],"countries":["PT"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Jo\u00e3o Pedro Matos Carvalho","raw_affiliation_strings":["COPELABS, Lus\u00f3fona University, Campo Grande 376, 1749-024, Lisbon, Portugal","Center of Technology and Systems (UNINOVA-CTS) and LASI, 2829-516, Caparica, Portugal","LASIGE, Faculdade de Ci\u00eancias, Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016, Lisboa, Portugal"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9409-7736","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"COPELABS, Lus\u00f3fona University, Campo Grande 376, 1749-024, Lisbon, Portugal","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I88596544"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Center of Technology and Systems (UNINOVA-CTS) and LASI, 2829-516, Caparica, Portugal","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210127031"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"LASIGE, Faculdade de Ci\u00eancias, Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016, Lisboa, Portugal","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I141596103"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5016492093","display_name":"St\u00e9fano Frizzo Stefenon","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3723-616X"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I194028371","display_name":"University of Regina","ror":"https://ror.org/03dzc0485","country_code":"CA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I194028371"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I203847022","display_name":"Instituto Polit\u00e9cnico de Lisboa","ror":"https://ror.org/04ea70f07","country_code":"PT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I203847022"]}],"countries":["CA","PT"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Stefano Frizzo Stefenon","raw_affiliation_strings":["Faculty of Engineering and Applied Sciences, University of Regina, S4S 0A2, Saskatchewan, Canada","Instituto Superior de Engenharia de Lisboa, Instituto Polit\u00e9cnico de Lisboa, Rua Conselheiro Em\u00eddio Navarro 1, 1959-007, Lisboa, Portugal"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3723-616X","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Faculty of Engineering and Applied Sciences, University of Regina, S4S 0A2, Saskatchewan, Canada","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I194028371"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Instituto Superior de Engenharia de Lisboa, Instituto Polit\u00e9cnico de Lisboa, Rua Conselheiro Em\u00eddio Navarro 1, 1959-007, Lisboa, Portugal","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I203847022"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5014396970","display_name":"Matheus Henrique Dal Molin Ribeiro","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7387-9077"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1283613182","display_name":"Universidade Tecnol\u00f3gica Federal do Paran\u00e1","ror":"https://ror.org/002v2kq79","country_code":"BR","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1283613182"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210158700","display_name":"Faculdade de Pato Branco","ror":"https://ror.org/05t3r3e66","country_code":"BR","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210158700"]}],"countries":["BR"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Matheus Henrique Dal Molin Ribeiro","raw_affiliation_strings":["Industrial and Systems Engineering Graduate Program, Federal University of Technology-Parana, Pato Branco, Brazil"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7387-9077","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Industrial and Systems Engineering Graduate Program, Federal University of Technology-Parana, Pato Branco, Brazil","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1283613182","https://openalex.org/I4210158700"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5130819624","display_name":"Kin-Choong Yow","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I194028371","display_name":"University of Regina","ror":"https://ror.org/03dzc0485","country_code":"CA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I194028371"]}],"countries":["CA"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Kin-Choong Yow","raw_affiliation_strings":["Faculty of Engineering and Applied Sciences, University of Regina, S4S 0A2, Saskatchewan, Canada"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8610-661X","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Faculty of Engineering and Applied Sciences, University of Regina, S4S 0A2, Saskatchewan, Canada","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I194028371"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":3,"institutions_distinct_count":7,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5016492093"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I194028371","https://openalex.org/I203847022"],"apc_list":{"value":2890,"currency":"USD","value_usd":2890},"apc_paid":{"value":2890,"currency":"USD","value_usd":2890},"fwci":9.7346,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":1,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.97318396,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":94,"max":97},"biblio":{"volume":"7","issue":"4","first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11276","display_name":"Solar Radiation and Photovoltaics","score":0.9261000156402588,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11276","display_name":"Solar Radiation and Photovoltaics","score":0.9261000156402588,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11052","display_name":"Energy Load and Power Forecasting","score":0.03790000081062317,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2208","display_name":"Electrical and Electronic Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10468","display_name":"Photovoltaic System Optimization Techniques","score":0.005900000222027302,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2105","display_name":"Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/21","display_name":"Energy"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/kalman-filter","display_name":"Kalman filter","score":0.7379000186920166},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/benchmarking","display_name":"Benchmarking","score":0.6025999784469604},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/photovoltaic-system","display_name":"Photovoltaic system","score":0.5198000073432922},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/noise","display_name":"Noise (video)","score":0.46459999680519104},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/task","display_name":"Task (project management)","score":0.4458000063896179},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/hyperparameter","display_name":"Hyperparameter","score":0.4065999984741211},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/grid","display_name":"Grid","score":0.4047999978065491},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/artificial-neural-network","display_name":"Artificial neural network","score":0.40149998664855957},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/hybrid-system","display_name":"Hybrid system","score":0.38449999690055847}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C157286648","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q846780","display_name":"Kalman filter","level":2,"score":0.7379000186920166},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.6407999992370605},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86251818","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q816754","display_name":"Benchmarking","level":2,"score":0.6025999784469604},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41291067","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1897785","display_name":"Photovoltaic system","level":2,"score":0.5198000073432922},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.48399999737739563},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C99498987","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2210247","display_name":"Noise (video)","level":3,"score":0.46459999680519104},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.4625000059604645},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780451532","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q759676","display_name":"Task (project management)","level":2,"score":0.4458000063896179},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C8642999","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4171168","display_name":"Hyperparameter","level":2,"score":0.4065999984741211},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C187691185","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2020720","display_name":"Grid","level":2,"score":0.4047999978065491},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C50644808","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q192776","display_name":"Artificial neural network","level":2,"score":0.40149998664855957},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C50897621","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2665508","display_name":"Hybrid system","level":2,"score":0.38449999690055847},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151406439","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q186588","display_name":"Time series","level":2,"score":0.37860000133514404},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C163294075","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q581861","display_name":"Noise reduction","level":2,"score":0.36730000376701355},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C185798385","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1161707","display_name":"Benchmark (surveying)","level":2,"score":0.3528999984264374},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111335779","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3454686","display_name":"Reduction (mathematics)","level":2,"score":0.3513999879360199},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C122282355","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7246855","display_name":"Probabilistic forecasting","level":3,"score":0.32260000705718994},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C89227174","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2388981","display_name":"Electric power system","level":3,"score":0.3183000087738037},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C163258240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25342","display_name":"Power (physics)","level":2,"score":0.3154999911785126},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C106131492","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3072260","display_name":"Filter (signal processing)","level":2,"score":0.2827000021934509},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C78600449","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q43302","display_name":"Wind power","level":2,"score":0.27239999175071716},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C108583219","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q197536","display_name":"Deep learning","level":2,"score":0.26330000162124634},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C12725497","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q810247","display_name":"Baseline (sea)","level":2,"score":0.2628999948501587},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781013037","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1433331","display_name":"Nowcasting","level":2,"score":0.25519999861717224},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C124101348","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q172491","display_name":"Data mining","level":1,"score":0.2533999979496002},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C167085575","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6803654","display_name":"Mean squared prediction error","level":2,"score":0.2529999911785126}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1007/s42979-026-04823-x","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s42979-026-04823-x","pdf_url":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s42979-026-04823-x.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210174798","display_name":"SN Computer Science","issn_l":"2661-8907","issn":["2661-8907","2662-995X"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319965","host_organization_name":"Springer Nature","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"SN Computer Science","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:run.unl.pt:10362/202551","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10362/202551","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402433","display_name":"Portuguese National Funding Agency for Science, Research and Technology (RCAAP Project by FCT)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"other-oa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/other-oa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"journal article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1007/s42979-026-04823-x","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s42979-026-04823-x","pdf_url":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s42979-026-04823-x.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210174798","display_name":"SN Computer Science","issn_l":"2661-8907","issn":["2661-8907","2662-995X"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319965","host_organization_name":"Springer Nature","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"SN Computer Science","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.5055602788925171,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/7","display_name":"Affordable and clean energy"}],"awards":[],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320331683","display_name":"Instituto Polit\u00e9cnico de Lisboa","ror":"https://ror.org/04ea70f07"}],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7141819097.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7141819097.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":69,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1977698057","https://openalex.org/W2059700429","https://openalex.org/W2116512828","https://openalex.org/W2282821441","https://openalex.org/W3088991477","https://openalex.org/W3159352807","https://openalex.org/W3161236498","https://openalex.org/W3176714582","https://openalex.org/W3184473617","https://openalex.org/W4221088249","https://openalex.org/W4226035582","https://openalex.org/W4283692593","https://openalex.org/W4297105462","https://openalex.org/W4298204516","https://openalex.org/W4319299604","https://openalex.org/W4327737973","https://openalex.org/W4362579206","https://openalex.org/W4376566946","https://openalex.org/W4382936427","https://openalex.org/W4386102463","https://openalex.org/W4388323135","https://openalex.org/W4388947904","https://openalex.org/W4390563524","https://openalex.org/W4391177846","https://openalex.org/W4391250751","https://openalex.org/W4392138637","https://openalex.org/W4392714183","https://openalex.org/W4394747279","https://openalex.org/W4396821501","https://openalex.org/W4400118104","https://openalex.org/W4400943215","https://openalex.org/W4401740586","https://openalex.org/W4401863493","https://openalex.org/W4402027572","https://openalex.org/W4402900179","https://openalex.org/W4402901593","https://openalex.org/W4403093091","https://openalex.org/W4403434003","https://openalex.org/W4403620047","https://openalex.org/W4403756047","https://openalex.org/W4404404976","https://openalex.org/W4405237233","https://openalex.org/W4405437902","https://openalex.org/W4405854600","https://openalex.org/W4406887893","https://openalex.org/W4407278237","https://openalex.org/W4407403657","https://openalex.org/W4407485164","https://openalex.org/W4407902204","https://openalex.org/W4408304848","https://openalex.org/W4408634458","https://openalex.org/W4408791110","https://openalex.org/W4409164976","https://openalex.org/W4409199204","https://openalex.org/W4409291558","https://openalex.org/W4409534044","https://openalex.org/W4409882879","https://openalex.org/W4410097596","https://openalex.org/W4410108772","https://openalex.org/W4410308575","https://openalex.org/W4410393250","https://openalex.org/W4414805080","https://openalex.org/W4414982200","https://openalex.org/W4415071048","https://openalex.org/W4416091520","https://openalex.org/W4417086700","https://openalex.org/W7092212163","https://openalex.org/W7116110350","https://openalex.org/W7125514268"],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Abstract":[0],"Accurate":[1],"photovoltaic":[2],"(PV)":[3],"power":[4],"forecasting":[5,36,70],"is":[6,98],"critical":[7],"for":[8,43,51,145],"efficient":[9],"grid":[10],"integration":[11],"and":[12,58,82,88,143,148],"operational":[13],"planning,":[14],"yet":[15],"it":[16],"remains":[17],"a":[18,34,40,47,111,140],"challenging":[19],"task":[20],"due":[21],"to":[22,68,100,105,136],"the":[23,63,106],"inherent":[24],"variability":[25],"of":[26,116],"solar":[27],"irradiance.":[28],"In":[29],"this":[30],"paper,":[31],"we":[32],"propose":[33],"hybrid":[35,120],"approach":[37],"that":[38],"combines":[39],"Kalman":[41,121],"filter":[42],"noise":[44],"reduction":[45],"with":[46,87],"Kolmogorov-Arnold":[48],"network":[49],"(KAN)":[50],"time":[52],"series":[53],"prediction.":[54],"The":[55,92,132],"model\u2019s":[56],"architecture":[57],"hyperparameters":[59],"are":[60],"optimized":[61,119],"using":[62,130],"tree-structured":[64],"Parzen":[65],"estimator,":[66],"aiming":[67],"minimize":[69],"error":[71,115],"across":[72],"multiple":[73],"horizons.":[74],"We":[75],"perform":[76],"extensive":[77],"benchmarking":[78],"against":[79],"statistical,":[80],"naive,":[81],"deep":[83],"learning":[84],"models,":[85,127],"both":[86,146],"without":[89],"denoising":[90],"filters.":[91],"local":[93],"interpretable":[94],"model-agnostic":[95],"explanations":[96],"(LIME)":[97],"applied":[99],"highlight":[101],"important":[102],"timesteps":[103],"contributing":[104],"prediction,":[107],"improving":[108],"explainability.":[109],"With":[110],"mean":[112],"absolute":[113],"percentage":[114],"5.73%,":[117],"our":[118],"filter-KAN":[122],"model":[123],"significantly":[124],"outperforms":[125],"state-of-the-art":[126],"having":[128],"explainability":[129],"LIME.":[131],"proposed":[133],"method":[134],"proves":[135],"be":[137],"robust,":[138],"given":[139],"statistical":[141],"assessment,":[142],"effective":[144],"short":[147],"long-term":[149],"PV":[150],"forecasting.":[151]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-07-23T08:03:31.855105","created_date":"2026-03-29T00:00:00"}
