{"id":"https://openalex.org/W3195541094","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s42979-021-00808-0","title":"Multiplicative Holts Winter Model for Trend Analysis and Forecasting of COVID-19 Spread in India","display_name":"Multiplicative Holts Winter Model for Trend Analysis and Forecasting of COVID-19 Spread in India","publication_year":2021,"publication_date":"2021-08-16","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W3195541094","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s42979-021-00808-0","mag":"3195541094","pmid":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34423315"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1007/s42979-021-00808-0","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s42979-021-00808-0","pdf_url":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s42979-021-00808-0.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210174798","display_name":"SN Computer Science","issn_l":"2661-8907","issn":["2661-8907","2662-995X"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319965","host_organization_name":"Springer Nature","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"SN Computer Science","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","pubmed"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"bronze","oa_url":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s42979-021-00808-0.pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5048878276","display_name":"H. Swapnarekha","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8631-2838"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I185065464","display_name":"Veer Surendra Sai University of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/02yghbg68","country_code":"IN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I185065464"]}],"countries":["IN"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"H. Swapnarekha","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Information Technology, Veer Surendra Sai University of Technology (VSSUT), Burla, Sambalpur, 768018 Odisha India","Department of Information Technology, Veer Surendra Sai University of Technology (VSSUT), Burla, Sambalpur, 768018, Odisha, India"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Information Technology, Veer Surendra Sai University of Technology (VSSUT), Burla, Sambalpur, 768018 Odisha India","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I185065464"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Information Technology, Veer Surendra Sai University of Technology (VSSUT), Burla, Sambalpur, 768018, Odisha, India","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I185065464"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5078422400","display_name":"H. S. Behera","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8952-8383"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I185065464","display_name":"Veer Surendra Sai University of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/02yghbg68","country_code":"IN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I185065464"]}],"countries":["IN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Himansu Sekhar Behera","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Information Technology, Veer Surendra Sai University of Technology (VSSUT), Burla, Sambalpur, 768018 Odisha India","Department of Information Technology, Veer Surendra Sai University of Technology (VSSUT), Burla, Sambalpur, 768018, Odisha, India"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Information Technology, Veer Surendra Sai University of Technology (VSSUT), Burla, Sambalpur, 768018 Odisha India","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I185065464"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Information Technology, Veer Surendra Sai University of Technology (VSSUT), Burla, Sambalpur, 768018, Odisha, India","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I185065464"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5084502652","display_name":"Janmenjoy Nayak","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9746-6557"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210145126","display_name":"Aditya Birla (India)","ror":"https://ror.org/03pztks36","country_code":"IN","type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210145126"]}],"countries":["IN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Janmenjoy Nayak","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Aditya Institute of Technology and Management (AITAM), Tekkali, Andhra Pradesh 532201 India","Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Aditya Institute of Technology and Management (AITAM), Tekkali, Andhra Pradesh, 532201, India"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Aditya Institute of Technology and Management (AITAM), Tekkali, Andhra Pradesh 532201 India","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210145126"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Aditya Institute of Technology and Management (AITAM), Tekkali, Andhra Pradesh, 532201, India","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210145126"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5044832580","display_name":"Bighnaraj Naik","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9761-8389"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I185065464","display_name":"Veer Surendra Sai University of Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/02yghbg68","country_code":"IN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I185065464"]}],"countries":["IN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Bighnaraj Naik","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Computer Application, Veer Surendra Sai University of Technology, Burla, Sambalpur, 768018 Odisha India","Department of Computer Application, Veer Surendra Sai University of Technology, Burla, Sambalpur, 768018, Odisha, India"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Computer Application, Veer Surendra Sai University of Technology, Burla, Sambalpur, 768018 Odisha India","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I185065464"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Computer Application, Veer Surendra Sai University of Technology, Burla, Sambalpur, 768018, Odisha, India","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I185065464"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5026836850","display_name":"P. Suresh Kumar","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5922-0505"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210156205","display_name":"Indian Institute of Management Visakhapatnam","ror":"https://ror.org/05v3hkt95","country_code":"IN","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210156205"]}],"countries":["IN"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"P. Suresh Kumar","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Dr. Lankapalli Bullayya College of Engineering (W), Visakhapatnam, 530013 India","Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Dr. Lankapalli Bullayya College of Engineering (W), Visakhapatnam, 530013, India"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Dr. Lankapalli Bullayya College of Engineering (W), Visakhapatnam, 530013 India","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210156205"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Dr. Lankapalli Bullayya College of Engineering (W), Visakhapatnam, 530013, India","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210156205"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":5,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5048878276"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I185065464"],"apc_list":{"value":2290,"currency":"EUR","value_usd":2890},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":2.1894,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":30,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.87946107,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"2","issue":"5","first_page":"416","last_page":"416"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":0.9997000098228455,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":0.9997000098228455,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11711","display_name":"COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts","score":0.9958000183105469,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.9616000056266785,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/tamil","display_name":"Tamil","score":0.8900465965270996},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/autoregressive-integrated-moving-average","display_name":"Autoregressive integrated moving average","score":0.8698651790618896},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/coronavirus-disease-2019","display_name":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)","score":0.6670008897781372},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/statistics","display_name":"Statistics","score":0.5638766288757324},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/government","display_name":"Government (linguistics)","score":0.5310927629470825},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mean-squared-error","display_name":"Mean squared error","score":0.4350476861000061},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/socioeconomics","display_name":"Socioeconomics","score":0.41245272755622864},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/new-delhi","display_name":"New delhi","score":0.41084030270576477},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.3931765854358673},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/geography","display_name":"Geography","score":0.39204949140548706},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/time-series","display_name":"Time series","score":0.21381738781929016},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/medicine","display_name":"Medicine","score":0.18800243735313416},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/economics","display_name":"Economics","score":0.17420944571495056},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/disease","display_name":"Disease","score":0.08231472969055176}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C140688305","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5885","display_name":"Tamil","level":2,"score":0.8900465965270996},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C24338571","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2566298","display_name":"Autoregressive integrated moving average","level":3,"score":0.8698651790618896},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3008058167","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q84263196","display_name":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)","level":4,"score":0.6670008897781372},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.5638766288757324},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778137410","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2732820","display_name":"Government (linguistics)","level":2,"score":0.5310927629470825},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C139945424","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1940696","display_name":"Mean squared error","level":2,"score":0.4350476861000061},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C45355965","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1643441","display_name":"Socioeconomics","level":1,"score":0.41245272755622864},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3020456351","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q987","display_name":"New delhi","level":3,"score":0.41084030270576477},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.3931765854358673},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.39204949140548706},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151406439","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q186588","display_name":"Time series","level":2,"score":0.21381738781929016},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.18800243735313416},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.17420944571495056},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779134260","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12136","display_name":"Disease","level":2,"score":0.08231472969055176},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C524204448","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q788926","display_name":"Infectious disease (medical specialty)","level":3,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C166957645","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23498","display_name":"Archaeology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C158739034","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1907114","display_name":"Metropolitan area","level":2,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41895202","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8162","display_name":"Linguistics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138885662","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5891","display_name":"Philosophy","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C142724271","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7208","display_name":"Pathology","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1007/s42979-021-00808-0","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s42979-021-00808-0","pdf_url":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s42979-021-00808-0.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210174798","display_name":"SN Computer Science","issn_l":"2661-8907","issn":["2661-8907","2662-995X"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319965","host_organization_name":"Springer Nature","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"SN Computer Science","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmid:34423315","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34423315","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525036","display_name":"PubMed","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"SN computer science","raw_type":null},{"id":"pmh:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:8366486","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/8366486","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764455111","display_name":"PubMed Central","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"SN Comput Sci","raw_type":"Text"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1007/s42979-021-00808-0","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s42979-021-00808-0","pdf_url":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s42979-021-00808-0.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210174798","display_name":"SN Computer Science","issn_l":"2661-8907","issn":["2661-8907","2662-995X"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319965","host_organization_name":"Springer Nature","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"SN Computer Science","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"display_name":"Partnerships for the goals","score":0.41999998688697815,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/17"}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W3195541094.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W3195541094.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":41,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W164831347","https://openalex.org/W311927316","https://openalex.org/W1561734447","https://openalex.org/W1964824734","https://openalex.org/W1974758710","https://openalex.org/W1979268377","https://openalex.org/W2016944307","https://openalex.org/W2041389007","https://openalex.org/W2053050148","https://openalex.org/W2059071616","https://openalex.org/W2089056715","https://openalex.org/W2117014758","https://openalex.org/W2168148311","https://openalex.org/W2189862360","https://openalex.org/W2444508416","https://openalex.org/W2564679074","https://openalex.org/W2766931063","https://openalex.org/W2801179766","https://openalex.org/W2890347237","https://openalex.org/W2903899730","https://openalex.org/W3001118548","https://openalex.org/W3004280078","https://openalex.org/W3006645647","https://openalex.org/W3009333463","https://openalex.org/W3009468976","https://openalex.org/W3009916383","https://openalex.org/W3010131837","https://openalex.org/W3012966903","https://openalex.org/W3013161639","https://openalex.org/W3013177429","https://openalex.org/W3014768759","https://openalex.org/W3014916324","https://openalex.org/W3015126673","https://openalex.org/W3016038616","https://openalex.org/W3016498302","https://openalex.org/W3019548236","https://openalex.org/W3020878652","https://openalex.org/W3021743883","https://openalex.org/W3101844294","https://openalex.org/W4235888626","https://openalex.org/W4241727697"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W1504746966","https://openalex.org/W4360853490","https://openalex.org/W282935141","https://openalex.org/W2102222526","https://openalex.org/W3189436399","https://openalex.org/W2903473488","https://openalex.org/W4235233115","https://openalex.org/W2605598660","https://openalex.org/W2034426792","https://openalex.org/W3080406149"],"abstract_inverted_index":null,"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":8},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":8},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-06-19T15:47:20.252518","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}