{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2130902307","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11222-013-9416-2","title":"Understanding predictive information criteria for Bayesian models","display_name":"Understanding predictive information criteria for Bayesian models","publication_year":2013,"publication_date":"2013-08-19","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2130902307","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11222-013-9416-2","mag":"2130902307"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1007/s11222-013-9416-2","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11222-013-9416-2","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S5437875","display_name":"Statistics and Computing","issn_l":"0960-3174","issn":["0960-3174","1573-1375"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319900","host_organization_name":"Springer Science+Business Media","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319900","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Science+Business Media","Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Statistics and Computing","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5074093929","display_name":"Andrew Gelman","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6975-2601"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I78577930","display_name":"Columbia University","ror":"https://ror.org/00hj8s172","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I78577930"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Andrew Gelman","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Statistics, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA","Department of Statistics Columbia University New York USA"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Statistics, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I78577930"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Statistics Columbia University New York USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I78577930"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5066530970","display_name":"Jessica Hwang","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5896-4182"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I136199984","display_name":"Harvard University","ror":"https://ror.org/03vek6s52","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I136199984"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Jessica Hwang","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Statistics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA","Dept of Statistics, Harvard University, Cambridge, USA"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Statistics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I136199984"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Dept of Statistics, Harvard University, Cambridge, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I136199984"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5047269552","display_name":"Aki Vehtari","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2164-9469"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I9927081","display_name":"Aalto University","ror":"https://ror.org/020hwjq30","country_code":"FI","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I9927081"]}],"countries":["FI"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Aki Vehtari","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Biomedical Engineering and Computational Science, Aalto University, Espoo, Finland","Dept. of Biomedical Engineering and Computational Science, Aalto University, Espoo, Finland#TAB#"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Biomedical Engineering and Computational Science, Aalto University, Espoo, Finland","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I9927081"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Dept. of Biomedical Engineering and Computational Science, Aalto University, Espoo, Finland#TAB#","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I9927081"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":3,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5074093929"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I78577930"],"apc_list":{"value":2090,"currency":"EUR","value_usd":2690},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":51.9153,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":2107,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.99951159,"is_in_top_1_percent":true,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":90,"max":100},"biblio":{"volume":"24","issue":"6","first_page":"997","last_page":"1016"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10243","display_name":"Statistical Methods and Bayesian Inference","score":0.9995999932289124,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2613","display_name":"Statistics and Probability"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10243","display_name":"Statistical Methods and Bayesian Inference","score":0.9995999932289124,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2613","display_name":"Statistics and Probability"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10136","display_name":"Statistical Methods and Inference","score":0.9987000226974487,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2613","display_name":"Statistics and Probability"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11901","display_name":"Bayesian Methods and Mixture Models","score":0.9965999722480774,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/akaike-information-criterion","display_name":"Akaike information criterion","score":0.8852532505989075},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/deviance-information-criterion","display_name":"Deviance information criterion","score":0.7790294289588928},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bayesian-information-criterion","display_name":"Bayesian information criterion","score":0.7059440016746521},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bayesian-probability","display_name":"Bayesian probability","score":0.6823068857192993},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/deviance","display_name":"Deviance (statistics)","score":0.6206004619598389},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/information-criteria","display_name":"Information Criteria","score":0.5349529981613159},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.4835360050201416},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/perspective","display_name":"Perspective (graphical)","score":0.471711128950119},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/context","display_name":"Context (archaeology)","score":0.43518081307411194},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/econometrics","display_name":"Econometrics","score":0.4257432818412781},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/statistics","display_name":"Statistics","score":0.4208759665489197},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/model-selection","display_name":"Model selection","score":0.41779959201812744},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/machine-learning","display_name":"Machine learning","score":0.38826826214790344},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.3810787796974182},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bayesian-inference","display_name":"Bayesian inference","score":0.33416491746902466},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/artificial-intelligence","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","score":0.30787110328674316}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126674687","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1662573","display_name":"Akaike information criterion","level":2,"score":0.8852532505989075},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17634605","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q972431","display_name":"Deviance information criterion","level":4,"score":0.7790294289588928},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C168136583","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1988242","display_name":"Bayesian information criterion","level":2,"score":0.7059440016746521},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107673813","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812534","display_name":"Bayesian probability","level":2,"score":0.6823068857192993},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C177599991","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3706279","display_name":"Deviance (statistics)","level":2,"score":0.6206004619598389},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776709221","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6031040","display_name":"Information Criteria","level":3,"score":0.5349529981613159},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.4835360050201416},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C12713177","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1900281","display_name":"Perspective (graphical)","level":2,"score":0.471711128950119},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779343474","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3109175","display_name":"Context (archaeology)","level":2,"score":0.43518081307411194},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.4257432818412781},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.4208759665489197},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C93959086","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6888345","display_name":"Model selection","level":2,"score":0.41779959201812744},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.38826826214790344},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.3810787796974182},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C160234255","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812535","display_name":"Bayesian inference","level":3,"score":0.33416491746902466},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.30787110328674316},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151730666","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7205","display_name":"Paleontology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86803240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q420","display_name":"Biology","level":0,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":5,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1007/s11222-013-9416-2","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11222-013-9416-2","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S5437875","display_name":"Statistics and Computing","issn_l":"0960-3174","issn":["0960-3174","1573-1375"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319900","host_organization_name":"Springer Science+Business Media","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319900","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Science+Business Media","Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Statistics and Computing","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.295.3501","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.295.3501","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/unpublished/waic_understand_final.pdf","raw_type":"text"},{"id":"pmh:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.309.7642","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.309.7642","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/unpublished/waic_understand.pdf","raw_type":"text"},{"id":"pmh:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.363.528","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.363.528","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/waic_understand2.pdf","raw_type":"text"},{"id":"pmh:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.370.7756","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.370.7756","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/waic_understand3.pdf","raw_type":"text"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":44,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W55848811","https://openalex.org/W1488457219","https://openalex.org/W1499861606","https://openalex.org/W1569625389","https://openalex.org/W1603903339","https://openalex.org/W1922851081","https://openalex.org/W1967396577","https://openalex.org/W1969567794","https://openalex.org/W1995945562","https://openalex.org/W2006258746","https://openalex.org/W2008369359","https://openalex.org/W2009435671","https://openalex.org/W2013646242","https://openalex.org/W2015558203","https://openalex.org/W2016219233","https://openalex.org/W2025720061","https://openalex.org/W2040011853","https://openalex.org/W2045656233","https://openalex.org/W2056933586","https://openalex.org/W2057765075","https://openalex.org/W2058815839","https://openalex.org/W2060442802","https://openalex.org/W2075965721","https://openalex.org/W2083536977","https://openalex.org/W2101756511","https://openalex.org/W2108868276","https://openalex.org/W2117076645","https://openalex.org/W2117812871","https://openalex.org/W2123222757","https://openalex.org/W2143684265","https://openalex.org/W2153882688","https://openalex.org/W2168175751","https://openalex.org/W2168934042","https://openalex.org/W2170555811","https://openalex.org/W2292751606","https://openalex.org/W2951147613","https://openalex.org/W3106889297","https://openalex.org/W3122478777","https://openalex.org/W3125939806","https://openalex.org/W4232383088","https://openalex.org/W4232632925","https://openalex.org/W4234053147","https://openalex.org/W4245448682","https://openalex.org/W4249616859"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W4385945919","https://openalex.org/W1968886786","https://openalex.org/W3111001581","https://openalex.org/W2088726129","https://openalex.org/W2350396435","https://openalex.org/W2260619510","https://openalex.org/W2029108025","https://openalex.org/W2643715342","https://openalex.org/W3194259580","https://openalex.org/W2139461904"],"abstract_inverted_index":null,"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":53},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":202},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":210},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":222},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":238},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":273},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":236},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":204},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":155},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":150},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":94},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":46},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":17},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2012,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-04-13T07:58:08.660418","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}
