{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2114111800","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-009-0035-9","title":"Why it has become more difficult to predict Nobel Prize winners: a bibliometric analysis of nominees and winners of the chemistry and physics prizes (1901\u20132007)","display_name":"Why it has become more difficult to predict Nobel Prize winners: a bibliometric analysis of nominees and winners of the chemistry and physics prizes (1901\u20132007)","publication_year":2009,"publication_date":"2009-09-22","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2114111800","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-009-0035-9","mag":"2114111800"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1007/s11192-009-0035-9","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-009-0035-9","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S148561398","display_name":"Scientometrics","issn_l":"0138-9130","issn":["0138-9130","1588-2861"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320108","host_organization_name":"Springer Nature (Netherlands)","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320108","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Nature (Netherlands)","Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Scientometrics","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5074283997","display_name":"Yves Gingras","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4729-1269"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I159129438","display_name":"Universit\u00e9 du Qu\u00e9bec \u00e0 Montr\u00e9al","ror":"https://ror.org/002rjbv21","country_code":"CA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I159129438","https://openalex.org/I49663120"]}],"countries":["CA"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Yves Gingras","raw_affiliation_strings":["Observatoire des Sciences et des Technologies (OST), Centre Interuniversitaire de Recherche sur la Science et la Technologie (CIRST), Universit\u00e9 du Qu\u00e9bec \u00e0 Montr\u00e9al, Case Postale 8888, succ. Centre-Ville, Montreal, Quebec, H3C 3P8, Canada","Universite du Quebec `a Montreal"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Observatoire des Sciences et des Technologies (OST), Centre Interuniversitaire de Recherche sur la Science et la Technologie (CIRST), Universit\u00e9 du Qu\u00e9bec \u00e0 Montr\u00e9al, Case Postale 8888, succ. Centre-Ville, Montreal, Quebec, H3C 3P8, Canada","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I159129438"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Universite du Quebec `a Montreal","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I159129438"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5074212725","display_name":"Matthew L. Wallace","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5407-8653"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I159129438","display_name":"Universit\u00e9 du Qu\u00e9bec \u00e0 Montr\u00e9al","ror":"https://ror.org/002rjbv21","country_code":"CA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I159129438","https://openalex.org/I49663120"]}],"countries":["CA"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Matthew L. Wallace","raw_affiliation_strings":["Observatoire des Sciences et des Technologies (OST), Centre Interuniversitaire de Recherche sur la Science et la Technologie (CIRST), Universit\u00e9 du Qu\u00e9bec \u00e0 Montr\u00e9al, Case Postale 8888, succ. Centre-Ville, Montreal, Quebec, H3C 3P8, Canada","Universite du Quebec `a Montreal"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Observatoire des Sciences et des Technologies (OST), Centre Interuniversitaire de Recherche sur la Science et la Technologie (CIRST), Universit\u00e9 du Qu\u00e9bec \u00e0 Montr\u00e9al, Case Postale 8888, succ. Centre-Ville, Montreal, Quebec, H3C 3P8, Canada","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I159129438"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Universite du Quebec `a Montreal","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I159129438"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5074283997"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I159129438"],"apc_list":{"value":2290,"currency":"EUR","value_usd":2890},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":2.1106,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":86,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.90645793,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":94,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"82","issue":"2","first_page":"401","last_page":"412"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10102","display_name":"scientometrics and bibliometrics research","score":0.9944000244140625,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1804","display_name":"Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10102","display_name":"scientometrics and bibliometrics research","score":0.9944000244140625,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1804","display_name":"Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10064","display_name":"Complex Network Analysis Techniques","score":0.9932000041007996,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3109","display_name":"Statistical and Nonlinear Physics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/31","display_name":"Physics and Astronomy"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11270","display_name":"Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis","score":0.9545000195503235,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/citation","display_name":"Citation","score":0.6872715950012207},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/fragmentation","display_name":"Fragmentation (computing)","score":0.4919309616088867},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/attribution","display_name":"Attribution","score":0.4804208278656006},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/hierarchy","display_name":"Hierarchy","score":0.4754323959350586},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/field","display_name":"Field (mathematics)","score":0.4617571532726288},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/citation-analysis","display_name":"Citation analysis","score":0.43425512313842773},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/data-science","display_name":"Data science","score":0.34585466980934143},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/sociology","display_name":"Sociology","score":0.32460370659828186},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/library-science","display_name":"Library science","score":0.2890802025794983},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/political-science","display_name":"Political science","score":0.2619096040725708},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/psychology","display_name":"Psychology","score":0.2607964873313904},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.2483815848827362},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.18553468585014343},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/law","display_name":"Law","score":0.09846031665802002}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778805511","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1713","display_name":"Citation","level":2,"score":0.6872715950012207},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C191015642","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1132459","display_name":"Fragmentation (computing)","level":2,"score":0.4919309616088867},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C143299363","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q900584","display_name":"Attribution","level":2,"score":0.4804208278656006},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C31170391","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188619","display_name":"Hierarchy","level":2,"score":0.4754323959350586},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C9652623","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q190109","display_name":"Field (mathematics)","level":2,"score":0.4617571532726288},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105345328","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q206276","display_name":"Citation analysis","level":3,"score":0.43425512313842773},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2522767166","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2374463","display_name":"Data science","level":1,"score":0.34585466980934143},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144024400","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21201","display_name":"Sociology","level":0,"score":0.32460370659828186},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C161191863","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q199655","display_name":"Library science","level":1,"score":0.2890802025794983},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17744445","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36442","display_name":"Political science","level":0,"score":0.2619096040725708},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.2607964873313904},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.2483815848827362},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.18553468585014343},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199539241","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7748","display_name":"Law","level":1,"score":0.09846031665802002},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111919701","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9135","display_name":"Operating system","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C77805123","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q161272","display_name":"Social psychology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C202444582","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q837863","display_name":"Pure mathematics","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1007/s11192-009-0035-9","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-009-0035-9","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S148561398","display_name":"Scientometrics","issn_l":"0138-9130","issn":["0138-9130","1588-2861"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320108","host_organization_name":"Springer Nature (Netherlands)","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320108","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Nature (Netherlands)","Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Scientometrics","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.604.9844","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.604.9844","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"http://www.ost.uqam.ca/Portals/0/docs/articles/2010/PredictNobelPrize2010.pdf","raw_type":"text"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:spr:scient:v:82:y:2010:i:2:d:10.1007_s11192-009-0035-9","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11192-009-0035-9","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":29,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W20546661","https://openalex.org/W1505499318","https://openalex.org/W1525848396","https://openalex.org/W1555723556","https://openalex.org/W1949701002","https://openalex.org/W1967948291","https://openalex.org/W1991962104","https://openalex.org/W2029172331","https://openalex.org/W2041052162","https://openalex.org/W2054435179","https://openalex.org/W2056944867","https://openalex.org/W2073080593","https://openalex.org/W2149075523","https://openalex.org/W2156539182","https://openalex.org/W2167651468","https://openalex.org/W2191351489","https://openalex.org/W2313432436","https://openalex.org/W2313775435","https://openalex.org/W2322583245","https://openalex.org/W2620816272","https://openalex.org/W2798758322","https://openalex.org/W2983667178","https://openalex.org/W3202243234","https://openalex.org/W4285719527","https://openalex.org/W4300565988","https://openalex.org/W6684431310","https://openalex.org/W6739339714","https://openalex.org/W6802001458","https://openalex.org/W6998900920"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2035546108","https://openalex.org/W2376361520","https://openalex.org/W2093949997","https://openalex.org/W2323536476","https://openalex.org/W2133328864","https://openalex.org/W2389726244","https://openalex.org/W3030478661","https://openalex.org/W2128730003","https://openalex.org/W2570200690","https://openalex.org/W2104624653"],"abstract_inverted_index":null,"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":11},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":11},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2012,"cited_by_count":2}],"updated_date":"2026-04-05T17:49:38.594831","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}
