{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2101467132","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10994-013-5401-4","title":"Forecast aggregation via recalibration","display_name":"Forecast aggregation via recalibration","publication_year":2013,"publication_date":"2013-10-12","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2101467132","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10994-013-5401-4","mag":"2101467132"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1007/s10994-013-5401-4","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10994-013-5401-4","pdf_url":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs10994-013-5401-4.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S62148650","display_name":"Machine Learning","issn_l":"0885-6125","issn":["0885-6125","1573-0565"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319900","host_organization_name":"Springer Science+Business Media","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319900","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Science+Business Media","Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Machine Learning","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"bronze","oa_url":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs10994-013-5401-4.pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5090743228","display_name":"Brandon M. Turner","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0966-9301"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I97018004","display_name":"Stanford University","ror":"https://ror.org/00f54p054","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I97018004"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Brandon M. Turner","raw_affiliation_strings":["Stanford University, Stanford, USA 94305#TAB#"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Stanford University, Stanford, USA 94305#TAB#","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I97018004"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5051768325","display_name":"Mark Steyvers","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1466-5647"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I204250578","display_name":"University of California, Irvine","ror":"https://ror.org/04gyf1771","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I204250578"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Mark Steyvers","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of California, Irvine, USA 92697#TAB#"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of California, Irvine, USA 92697#TAB#","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I204250578"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5039277792","display_name":"Edgar C. Merkle","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7158-0653"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I76835614","display_name":"University of Missouri","ror":"https://ror.org/02ymw8z06","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I76835614"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Edgar C. Merkle","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Missouri, Columbia, USA 65211#TAB#"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Missouri, Columbia, USA 65211#TAB#","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I76835614"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5063869991","display_name":"David V. Budescu","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9613-0317"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I164389053","display_name":"Fordham University","ror":"https://ror.org/03qnxaf80","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I164389053"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"David V. Budescu","raw_affiliation_strings":["Fordham University, Bronx, USA 10458#TAB#"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Fordham University, Bronx, USA 10458#TAB#","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I164389053"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5025701051","display_name":"Thomas S. Wallsten","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I66946132","display_name":"University of Maryland, College Park","ror":"https://ror.org/047s2c258","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I66946132"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Thomas S. Wallsten","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Maryland, College Park, USA 20740#TAB#"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Maryland, College Park, USA 20740#TAB#","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I66946132"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":5,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":{"value":2390,"currency":"EUR","value_usd":2990},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":5.9666,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":79,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.96178287,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":90,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"95","issue":"3","first_page":"261","last_page":"289"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.9970999956130981,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.9970999956130981,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10315","display_name":"Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics","score":0.9839000105857849,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1800","display_name":"General Decision Sciences"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11588","display_name":"Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics","score":0.9383999705314636,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/brier-score","display_name":"Brier score","score":0.919209897518158},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/odds","display_name":"Odds","score":0.6490343809127808},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/calibration","display_name":"Calibration","score":0.5832439064979553},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/statistics","display_name":"Statistics","score":0.5038747191429138},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/function","display_name":"Function (biology)","score":0.5017294883728027},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/event","display_name":"Event (particle physics)","score":0.4987051486968994},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/score","display_name":"Score","score":0.49349701404571533},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.48700767755508423},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/hierarchical-database-model","display_name":"Hierarchical database model","score":0.42999422550201416},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/econometrics","display_name":"Econometrics","score":0.4227350354194641},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/baseline","display_name":"Baseline (sea)","score":0.4199947714805603},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.3741174340248108},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/data-mining","display_name":"Data mining","score":0.243799090385437},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/logistic-regression","display_name":"Logistic regression","score":0.11432754993438721}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C35405484","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4967066","display_name":"Brier score","level":2,"score":0.919209897518158},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C143095724","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q515895","display_name":"Odds","level":3,"score":0.6490343809127808},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C165838908","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q736777","display_name":"Calibration","level":2,"score":0.5832439064979553},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.5038747191429138},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C14036430","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3736076","display_name":"Function (biology)","level":2,"score":0.5017294883728027},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779662365","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5416694","display_name":"Event (particle physics)","level":2,"score":0.4987051486968994},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C65660741","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3952743","display_name":"Score","level":2,"score":0.49349701404571533},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.48700767755508423},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144986985","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q871236","display_name":"Hierarchical database model","level":2,"score":0.42999422550201416},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.4227350354194641},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C12725497","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q810247","display_name":"Baseline (sea)","level":2,"score":0.4199947714805603},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.3741174340248108},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C124101348","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q172491","display_name":"Data mining","level":1,"score":0.243799090385437},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151956035","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1132755","display_name":"Logistic regression","level":2,"score":0.11432754993438721},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111368507","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q43518","display_name":"Oceanography","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C78458016","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q840400","display_name":"Evolutionary biology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86803240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q420","display_name":"Biology","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127313418","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1069","display_name":"Geology","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C62520636","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q944","display_name":"Quantum mechanics","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1007/s10994-013-5401-4","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10994-013-5401-4","pdf_url":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs10994-013-5401-4.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S62148650","display_name":"Machine Learning","issn_l":"0885-6125","issn":["0885-6125","1573-0565"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319900","host_organization_name":"Springer Science+Business Media","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319900","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Science+Business Media","Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Machine Learning","raw_type":"journal-article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1007/s10994-013-5401-4","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10994-013-5401-4","pdf_url":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs10994-013-5401-4.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S62148650","display_name":"Machine Learning","issn_l":"0885-6125","issn":["0885-6125","1573-0565"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319900","host_organization_name":"Springer Science+Business Media","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319900","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Science+Business Media","Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Machine Learning","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/16","display_name":"Peace, Justice and strong institutions","score":0.5699999928474426}],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G7953893519","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"D11PC20059","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320333051","funder_display_name":"Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320333051","display_name":"Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity","ror":"https://ror.org/01v3fsc55"}],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2101467132.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2101467132.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":100,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W68436435","https://openalex.org/W158727920","https://openalex.org/W165615793","https://openalex.org/W367043469","https://openalex.org/W1480376833","https://openalex.org/W1485062803","https://openalex.org/W1535561076","https://openalex.org/W1537228030","https://openalex.org/W1543243699","https://openalex.org/W1543278958","https://openalex.org/W1554162480","https://openalex.org/W1590606038","https://openalex.org/W1603871809","https://openalex.org/W1669437150","https://openalex.org/W1937068864","https://openalex.org/W1965085799","https://openalex.org/W1973881715","https://openalex.org/W1978844375","https://openalex.org/W1980773669","https://openalex.org/W1984911088","https://openalex.org/W1993387039","https://openalex.org/W1994433970","https://openalex.org/W1995181543","https://openalex.org/W1995379676","https://openalex.org/W1995500913","https://openalex.org/W1997236510","https://openalex.org/W1998765864","https://openalex.org/W2000830744","https://openalex.org/W2000991723","https://openalex.org/W2003051912","https://openalex.org/W2003917847","https://openalex.org/W2022521474","https://openalex.org/W2028076981","https://openalex.org/W2031555399","https://openalex.org/W2032009356","https://openalex.org/W2039254862","https://openalex.org/W2041946752","https://openalex.org/W2042695214","https://openalex.org/W2043763623","https://openalex.org/W2045656233","https://openalex.org/W2047634553","https://openalex.org/W2051183443","https://openalex.org/W2051602937","https://openalex.org/W2065637266","https://openalex.org/W2069888879","https://openalex.org/W2073241381","https://openalex.org/W2073976919","https://openalex.org/W2085179770","https://openalex.org/W2093028998","https://openalex.org/W2094414211","https://openalex.org/W2100078522","https://openalex.org/W2102118103","https://openalex.org/W2111202739","https://openalex.org/W2112076978","https://openalex.org/W2124865010","https://openalex.org/W2129905273","https://openalex.org/W2132811257","https://openalex.org/W2133469585","https://openalex.org/W2146244129","https://openalex.org/W2148412534","https://openalex.org/W2153162913","https://openalex.org/W2154028987","https://openalex.org/W2155513791","https://openalex.org/W2158389550","https://openalex.org/W2158808535","https://openalex.org/W2164646550","https://openalex.org/W2174100085","https://openalex.org/W2181637105","https://openalex.org/W2187753570","https://openalex.org/W2404058514","https://openalex.org/W2489782956","https://openalex.org/W2574014423","https://openalex.org/W2577168861","https://openalex.org/W2597289420","https://openalex.org/W2604846069","https://openalex.org/W2614237344","https://openalex.org/W2618608669","https://openalex.org/W2767208160","https://openalex.org/W2770310889","https://openalex.org/W2787894218","https://openalex.org/W2800505917","https://openalex.org/W2912934387","https://openalex.org/W3011865677","https://openalex.org/W4230652951","https://openalex.org/W4232383088","https://openalex.org/W4233014035","https://openalex.org/W4234113700","https://openalex.org/W4239414618","https://openalex.org/W4249247059","https://openalex.org/W4249729334","https://openalex.org/W4255265694","https://openalex.org/W4285719527","https://openalex.org/W4388156124","https://openalex.org/W6635344943","https://openalex.org/W6660215864","https://openalex.org/W6662203318","https://openalex.org/W6676769703","https://openalex.org/W6808111085","https://openalex.org/W6980183339","https://openalex.org/W6988036384"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W4293426625","https://openalex.org/W1774890144","https://openalex.org/W2728311169","https://openalex.org/W3121128755","https://openalex.org/W2051201630","https://openalex.org/W2082471284","https://openalex.org/W2773944606","https://openalex.org/W2101467132","https://openalex.org/W4224214111","https://openalex.org/W4306405767"],"abstract_inverted_index":null,"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":8},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":11},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":9},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":10},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":2}],"updated_date":"2026-06-11T09:08:48.828518","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}