{"id":"https://openalex.org/W3118434900","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10660-021-09457-0","title":"Forecasting the nearly unforecastable: why aren\u2019t airline bookings adhering to the prediction algorithm?","display_name":"Forecasting the nearly unforecastable: why aren\u2019t airline bookings adhering to the prediction algorithm?","publication_year":2021,"publication_date":"2021-01-13","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W3118434900","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10660-021-09457-0","mag":"3118434900"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1007/s10660-021-09457-0","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10660-021-09457-0","pdf_url":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10660-021-09457-0.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S205929853","display_name":"Electronic Commerce Research","issn_l":"1389-5753","issn":["1389-5753","1572-9362"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319900","host_organization_name":"Springer Science+Business Media","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319900","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Science+Business Media","Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Electronic Commerce Research","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"hybrid","oa_url":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10660-021-09457-0.pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5066004392","display_name":"Saravanan Thirumuruganathan","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1517-480X"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210144839","display_name":"Hamad bin Khalifa University","ror":"https://ror.org/03eyq4y97","country_code":"QA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210144839"]}],"countries":["QA"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Saravanan Thirumuruganathan","raw_affiliation_strings":["Qatar Computing Research Institute, Hamad Bin Khalifa University, Education City, Qatar"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Qatar Computing Research Institute, Hamad Bin Khalifa University, Education City, Qatar","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210144839"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5014283670","display_name":"Soon-Gyo Jung","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6130-8012"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210144839","display_name":"Hamad bin Khalifa University","ror":"https://ror.org/03eyq4y97","country_code":"QA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210144839"]}],"countries":["QA"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Soon-gyo Jung","raw_affiliation_strings":["Qatar Computing Research Institute, Hamad Bin Khalifa University, Education City, Qatar"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Qatar Computing Research Institute, Hamad Bin Khalifa University, Education City, Qatar","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210144839"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5069392331","display_name":"Dianne Ramirez Robillos","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I87074743","display_name":"University of the Philippines Diliman","ror":"https://ror.org/03tbh6y23","country_code":"PH","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I103911934","https://openalex.org/I87074743"]}],"countries":["PH"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Dianne Ramirez Robillos","raw_affiliation_strings":["School of Statistics, University of the Philippines, Diliman, Philippines"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Statistics, University of the Philippines, Diliman, Philippines","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I87074743"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5083126896","display_name":"Joni Salminen","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3230-0561"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210144839","display_name":"Hamad bin Khalifa University","ror":"https://ror.org/03eyq4y97","country_code":"QA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210144839"]}],"countries":["QA"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Joni Salminen","raw_affiliation_strings":["Qatar Computing Research Institute, Hamad Bin Khalifa University, Education City, Qatar"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Qatar Computing Research Institute, Hamad Bin Khalifa University, Education City, Qatar","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210144839"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5044849571","display_name":"Bernard J. Jansen","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6468-6609"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210144839","display_name":"Hamad bin Khalifa University","ror":"https://ror.org/03eyq4y97","country_code":"QA","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210144839"]}],"countries":["QA"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Bernard J. Jansen","raw_affiliation_strings":["Qatar Computing Research Institute, Hamad Bin Khalifa University, Education City, Qatar"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6468-6609","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Qatar Computing Research Institute, Hamad Bin Khalifa University, Education City, Qatar","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210144839"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5044849571"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210144839"],"apc_list":{"value":2890,"currency":"USD","value_usd":2890},"apc_paid":{"value":2341,"currency":"EUR","value_usd":2524},"fwci":2.8774,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":8,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.91178804,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":91,"max":97},"biblio":{"volume":"21","issue":"1","first_page":"73","last_page":"100"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11599","display_name":"Aviation Industry Analysis and Trends","score":0.9994999766349792,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11599","display_name":"Aviation Industry Analysis and Trends","score":0.9994999766349792,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11161","display_name":"Consumer Market Behavior and Pricing","score":0.9980999827384949,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1406","display_name":"Marketing"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/14","display_name":"Business, Management and Accounting"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10609","display_name":"Digital Marketing and Social Media","score":0.9977999925613403,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3312","display_name":"Sociology and Political Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.6980778574943542},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/operations-research","display_name":"Operations research","score":0.5114494562149048},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/air-travel","display_name":"Air travel","score":0.44504570960998535},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/aviation","display_name":"Aviation","score":0.3912644386291504},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/econometrics","display_name":"Econometrics","score":0.34404176473617554},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/economics","display_name":"Economics","score":0.21091705560684204},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/engineering","display_name":"Engineering","score":0.10112875699996948}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.6980778574943542},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C42475967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q194292","display_name":"Operations research","level":1,"score":0.5114494562149048},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2985550459","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q376880","display_name":"Air travel","level":3,"score":0.44504570960998535},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C74448152","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q765633","display_name":"Aviation","level":2,"score":0.3912644386291504},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.34404176473617554},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.21091705560684204},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127413603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11023","display_name":"Engineering","level":0,"score":0.10112875699996948},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C146978453","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3798668","display_name":"Aerospace engineering","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":5,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1007/s10660-021-09457-0","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10660-021-09457-0","pdf_url":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10660-021-09457-0.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S205929853","display_name":"Electronic Commerce Research","issn_l":"1389-5753","issn":["1389-5753","1572-9362"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319900","host_organization_name":"Springer Science+Business Media","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319900","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Science+Business Media","Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Electronic Commerce Research","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:spr:elcore:v:21:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s10660-021-09457-0","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10660-021-09457-0","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:figshare.com:article/21597231","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://figshare.com/articles/journal_contribution/Forecasting_the_nearly_unforecastable_why_aren_t_airline_bookings_adhering_to_the_prediction_algorithm_/21597231","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4377196282","display_name":"Figshare","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I4210132348","host_organization_name":"Figshare (United Kingdom)","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210132348"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"Text"},{"id":"pmh:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:7805568","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/7805568","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764455111","display_name":"PubMed Central","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Electron Commer Res","raw_type":"Text"},{"id":"doi:10.57945/manara.21597231.v1","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.57945/manara.21597231.v1","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S7407052475","display_name":"Qatar National Library","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":null,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article-journal"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1007/s10660-021-09457-0","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10660-021-09457-0","pdf_url":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10660-021-09457-0.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S205929853","display_name":"Electronic Commerce Research","issn_l":"1389-5753","issn":["1389-5753","1572-9362"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319900","host_organization_name":"Springer Science+Business Media","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319900","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Science+Business Media","Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Electronic Commerce Research","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.44999998807907104,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/9","display_name":"Industry, innovation and infrastructure"}],"awards":[],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334468","display_name":"Qatar National Library","ror":"https://ror.org/02jv93662"}],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W3118434900.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W3118434900.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":97,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W21350779","https://openalex.org/W228037265","https://openalex.org/W1139185857","https://openalex.org/W1480526195","https://openalex.org/W1487320471","https://openalex.org/W1567774672","https://openalex.org/W1969420854","https://openalex.org/W1971040550","https://openalex.org/W1984189333","https://openalex.org/W1985476803","https://openalex.org/W1993879187","https://openalex.org/W2001775620","https://openalex.org/W2009415795","https://openalex.org/W2009718036","https://openalex.org/W2012506084","https://openalex.org/W2012942264","https://openalex.org/W2037351199","https://openalex.org/W2049670925","https://openalex.org/W2054141820","https://openalex.org/W2055119952","https://openalex.org/W2063199104","https://openalex.org/W2077741862","https://openalex.org/W2080160723","https://openalex.org/W2094286023","https://openalex.org/W2097211537","https://openalex.org/W2098258765","https://openalex.org/W2112420033","https://openalex.org/W2114167257","https://openalex.org/W2118274124","https://openalex.org/W2125330369","https://openalex.org/W2134148577","https://openalex.org/W2135092386","https://openalex.org/W2149409084","https://openalex.org/W2162111811","https://openalex.org/W2223495811","https://openalex.org/W2295598076","https://openalex.org/W2309363333","https://openalex.org/W2314015612","https://openalex.org/W2466253086","https://openalex.org/W2493315226","https://openalex.org/W2513399723","https://openalex.org/W2513610673","https://openalex.org/W2519422835","https://openalex.org/W2524969959","https://openalex.org/W2581016660","https://openalex.org/W2597121862","https://openalex.org/W2610314927","https://openalex.org/W2618416470","https://openalex.org/W2741209190","https://openalex.org/W2743586218","https://openalex.org/W2753328553","https://openalex.org/W2765709732","https://openalex.org/W2769041395","https://openalex.org/W2779451246","https://openalex.org/W2783851558","https://openalex.org/W2785051855","https://openalex.org/W2797097514","https://openalex.org/W2808151401","https://openalex.org/W2857892553","https://openalex.org/W2883201453","https://openalex.org/W2886209086","https://openalex.org/W2899482137","https://openalex.org/W2900738887","https://openalex.org/W2901334976","https://openalex.org/W2911891326","https://openalex.org/W2911964244","https://openalex.org/W2912701824","https://openalex.org/W2937828160","https://openalex.org/W2946420264","https://openalex.org/W2950257936","https://openalex.org/W2954100110","https://openalex.org/W2959235872","https://openalex.org/W2963878746","https://openalex.org/W2972378927","https://openalex.org/W2980227467","https://openalex.org/W2985046451","https://openalex.org/W2991036693","https://openalex.org/W2994642796","https://openalex.org/W3010458109","https://openalex.org/W3010634112","https://openalex.org/W3012727582","https://openalex.org/W3013471144","https://openalex.org/W3018808210","https://openalex.org/W3023881809","https://openalex.org/W3030941844","https://openalex.org/W3042136688","https://openalex.org/W3043418152","https://openalex.org/W3044397306","https://openalex.org/W3045122204","https://openalex.org/W3099352074","https://openalex.org/W3102476541","https://openalex.org/W3125207606","https://openalex.org/W3140043901","https://openalex.org/W4235216760","https://openalex.org/W4300020307","https://openalex.org/W6629353124","https://openalex.org/W6748449045"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2748952813","https://openalex.org/W2390279801","https://openalex.org/W2358668433","https://openalex.org/W2376932109","https://openalex.org/W4249082100","https://openalex.org/W622043899","https://openalex.org/W753330088","https://openalex.org/W617990337","https://openalex.org/W577697832","https://openalex.org/W652310865"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Abstract":[0],"Using":[1],"27":[2],"million":[3],"flight":[4,26],"bookings":[5],"for":[6,121],"2":[7],"years":[8],"from":[9],"a":[10,17,59,73,89],"major":[11],"international":[12],"airline":[13,80],"company,":[14],"we":[15],"built":[16],"Next":[18,68],"Likely":[19,69],"Destination":[20,70],"model":[21,30,44,52,71,87],"to":[22,126],"ascertain":[23],"customers\u2019":[24],"next":[25],"booking.":[27],"The":[28,95],"resulting":[29],"achieves":[31],"an":[32],"89%":[33],"predictive":[34,91],"accuracy":[35],"using":[36],"historical":[37,139],"data.":[38,140],"A":[39],"unique":[40],"aspect":[41],"of":[42,48,66],"the":[43,46,51,64,67,83,86,127],"is":[45],"incorporation":[47],"self-competence,":[49],"where":[50],"defers":[53],"when":[54],"it":[55],"cannot":[56],"reasonably":[57],"make":[58],"recommendation.":[60],"We":[61],"then":[62],"compare":[63],"performance":[65],"in":[72,107,116],"real-life":[74],"consumer":[75],"study":[76],"with":[77],"35,000":[78],"actual":[79],"customers.":[81],"In":[82],"user":[84],"study,":[85],"obtains":[88],"51%":[90],"accuracy.":[92],"What":[93],"happened?":[94],"Individual":[96],"Behavior":[97],"Framework":[98],"theory":[99],"provides":[100],"insights":[101],"into":[102],"possibly":[103],"explaining":[104],"this":[105],"inconsistency":[106],"evaluation":[108],"outcomes.":[109],"Research":[110],"results":[111],"indicate":[112],"that":[113],"algorithmic":[114],"approaches":[115],"competitive":[117],"industries":[118],"must":[119],"account":[120],"shifting":[122],"customer":[123],"preferences,":[124],"changes":[125],"travel":[128],"environment,":[129],"and":[130],"confounding":[131],"business":[132],"effects":[133],"rather":[134],"than":[135],"relying":[136],"solely":[137],"on":[138]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":3}],"updated_date":"2026-07-23T08:03:31.855105","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}
