{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2079469250","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10588-012-9149-3","title":"Justification shift and uncertainty: why are low-probability near misses underrated against organizational routines?","display_name":"Justification shift and uncertainty: why are low-probability near misses underrated against organizational routines?","publication_year":2012,"publication_date":"2012-12-11","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2079469250","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10588-012-9149-3","mag":"2079469250"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1007/s10588-012-9149-3","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10588-012-9149-3","pdf_url":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs10588-012-9149-3.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S47778307","display_name":"Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory","issn_l":"1381-298X","issn":["1381-298X","1572-9346"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319900","host_organization_name":"Springer Science+Business Media","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319900","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Science+Business Media","Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"hybrid","oa_url":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs10588-012-9149-3.pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5021959097","display_name":"Junko Shimazoe","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I114027177","display_name":"University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill","ror":"https://ror.org/0130frc33","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I114027177"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Junko Shimazoe","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Sociology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, 27599-3210, USA","Department of Sociology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, USA 27599-3210#TAB#"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Sociology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, 27599-3210, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I114027177"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Sociology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, USA 27599-3210#TAB#","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I114027177"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5084809834","display_name":"Richard M. Burton","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5524-7559"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I170897317","display_name":"Duke University","ror":"https://ror.org/00py81415","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I170897317"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Richard M. Burton","raw_affiliation_strings":["Fuqua School of Business, Duke University, Durham, NC, 27708-0120, USA","Fuqua School of Business, Duke University, Durham, USA 27708-0120#TAB#"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Fuqua School of Business, Duke University, Durham, NC, 27708-0120, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I170897317"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Fuqua School of Business, Duke University, Durham, USA 27708-0120#TAB#","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I170897317"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5021959097"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I114027177"],"apc_list":{"value":2090,"currency":"EUR","value_usd":2690},"apc_paid":{"value":2090,"currency":"EUR","value_usd":2690},"fwci":0.4026,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":11,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.67493323,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":97},"biblio":{"volume":"19","issue":"1","first_page":"78","last_page":"100"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11810","display_name":"Complex Systems and Decision Making","score":0.9926000237464905,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11810","display_name":"Complex Systems and Decision Making","score":0.9926000237464905,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10809","display_name":"Occupational Health and Safety Research","score":0.9919000267982483,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3614","display_name":"Radiological and Ultrasound Technology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/36","display_name":"Health Professions"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11864","display_name":"Supply Chain Resilience and Risk Management","score":0.989300012588501,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1408","display_name":"Strategy and Management"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/14","display_name":"Business, Management and Accounting"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/near-miss","display_name":"Near miss","score":0.7562791705131531},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/paradigm-shift","display_name":"Paradigm shift","score":0.7102261185646057},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.5247240662574768},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/space","display_name":"Space (punctuation)","score":0.4670639932155609},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/accident","display_name":"Accident (philosophy)","score":0.4514252245426178},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/risk-analysis","display_name":"Risk analysis (engineering)","score":0.3687661588191986},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/cognitive-psychology","display_name":"Cognitive psychology","score":0.3238368630409241},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/psychology","display_name":"Psychology","score":0.271431028842926},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/business","display_name":"Business","score":0.2372877597808838},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/epistemology","display_name":"Epistemology","score":0.1601683795452118},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/engineering","display_name":"Engineering","score":0.11777085065841675}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C206713868","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1674639","display_name":"Near miss","level":2,"score":0.7562791705131531},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C43540301","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q689971","display_name":"Paradigm shift","level":2,"score":0.7102261185646057},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.5247240662574768},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778572836","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q380933","display_name":"Space (punctuation)","level":2,"score":0.4670639932155609},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780289543","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q424630","display_name":"Accident (philosophy)","level":2,"score":0.4514252245426178},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C112930515","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4389547","display_name":"Risk analysis (engineering)","level":1,"score":0.3687661588191986},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C180747234","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23373","display_name":"Cognitive psychology","level":1,"score":0.3238368630409241},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.271431028842926},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144133560","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4830453","display_name":"Business","level":0,"score":0.2372877597808838},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111472728","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9471","display_name":"Epistemology","level":1,"score":0.1601683795452118},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127413603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11023","display_name":"Engineering","level":0,"score":0.11777085065841675},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138885662","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5891","display_name":"Philosophy","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C77595967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3151013","display_name":"Forensic engineering","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111919701","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9135","display_name":"Operating system","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1007/s10588-012-9149-3","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10588-012-9149-3","pdf_url":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs10588-012-9149-3.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S47778307","display_name":"Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory","issn_l":"1381-298X","issn":["1381-298X","1572-9346"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319900","host_organization_name":"Springer Science+Business Media","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319900","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Science+Business Media","Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:spr:comaot:v:19:y:2013:i:1:d:10.1007_s10588-012-9149-3","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10588-012-9149-3","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1007/s10588-012-9149-3","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10588-012-9149-3","pdf_url":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs10588-012-9149-3.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S47778307","display_name":"Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory","issn_l":"1381-298X","issn":["1381-298X","1572-9346"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319900","host_organization_name":"Springer Science+Business Media","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319900","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Science+Business Media","Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3","score":0.699999988079071,"display_name":"Good health and well-being"}],"awards":[],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320335596","display_name":"Wroclawskie Centrum Sieciowo-Superkomputerowe, Politechnika Wroclawska","ror":null}],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2079469250.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2079469250.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":44,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W103611305","https://openalex.org/W201578715","https://openalex.org/W1498488428","https://openalex.org/W1503152632","https://openalex.org/W1525261894","https://openalex.org/W1990144005","https://openalex.org/W1996373657","https://openalex.org/W2001606006","https://openalex.org/W2045069469","https://openalex.org/W2054129954","https://openalex.org/W2070047854","https://openalex.org/W2074684231","https://openalex.org/W2082894840","https://openalex.org/W2085619076","https://openalex.org/W2100865809","https://openalex.org/W2102664883","https://openalex.org/W2106919063","https://openalex.org/W2107828769","https://openalex.org/W2121766590","https://openalex.org/W2129628205","https://openalex.org/W2131857427","https://openalex.org/W2137297549","https://openalex.org/W2137358449","https://openalex.org/W2140256961","https://openalex.org/W2145501277","https://openalex.org/W2145826713","https://openalex.org/W2149756969","https://openalex.org/W2153981305","https://openalex.org/W2202511719","https://openalex.org/W2332094122","https://openalex.org/W2335311326","https://openalex.org/W2642534790","https://openalex.org/W2798125309","https://openalex.org/W2889398378","https://openalex.org/W2977157456","https://openalex.org/W3122240036","https://openalex.org/W3122794957","https://openalex.org/W4230659750","https://openalex.org/W4234482624","https://openalex.org/W4285719527","https://openalex.org/W4299961285","https://openalex.org/W4301066124","https://openalex.org/W4301761904","https://openalex.org/W4380740009"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W1908074935","https://openalex.org/W2314052861","https://openalex.org/W2213261302","https://openalex.org/W2318665749","https://openalex.org/W2380095995","https://openalex.org/W4214843831","https://openalex.org/W2410321111","https://openalex.org/W2937383285","https://openalex.org/W1836577023","https://openalex.org/W4252682102"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Knowledge":[0],"of":[1,37,47,54,56,62,64,69,95,99,145,173,181,189],"near":[2,33,58,190],"misses":[3,34,59,191],"is":[4,52],"helpful":[5],"in":[6,17,41,91,103,139,151,169],"preventing":[7],"accidents,":[8],"but":[9],"it":[10,159],"does":[11,164],"not":[12,165],"always":[13],"lead":[14],"to":[15,22,73,184,186,193],"changes":[16,90],"organizational":[18,140,200],"routines":[19,92],"or":[20],"contribute":[21],"accident":[23,150],"prevention.":[24],"In":[25],"this":[26,182],"article,":[27],"the":[28,109,127,129,143,146,154,157,197],"authors":[29,130,177],"argue":[30],"that":[31,162],"low-probability":[32],"reinforce":[35],"beliefs":[36],"experts":[38,85],"and":[39,76,86,105,111,123,142,171,192,199],"professionals":[40,87],"existing":[42,65],"routines,":[43],"proposing":[44],"a":[45,167],"concept":[46],"justification":[48,82,113,120,174],"shift.":[49,175],"Justification":[50],"shift":[51,83,114,121],"underestimation":[53],"risks":[55,98],"known":[57],"vis-\u00e0-vis":[60],"overestimation":[61],"reliabilities":[63],"routines.":[66,101],"Consequently,":[67],"signals":[68],"\u201cclose":[70],"calls\u201d":[71],"tend":[72],"be":[74],"disregarded,":[75],"accidents":[77],"become":[78],"more":[79,115],"likely.":[80,116],"When":[81],"occurs,":[84],"who":[88],"want":[89],"face":[93],"burden":[94,110],"proof":[96],"about":[97],"those":[100],"Uncertainty":[102],"requirements":[104],"data":[106],"may":[107],"increase":[108],"make":[112,166],"To":[117],"explore":[118],"how":[119,124],"occurs":[122],"uncertainty":[125,163],"influences":[126],"shift,":[128],"have":[131],"developed":[132],"an":[133],"agent-based":[134],"model":[135],"based":[136],"on":[137,196],"theories":[138],"studies":[141],"case":[144],"space":[147],"shuttle":[148],"Challenger":[149],"1986.":[152],"From":[153],"simulation":[155],"using":[156],"model,":[158],"becomes":[160],"clear":[161],"difference":[168],"frequencies":[170],"degrees":[172],"The":[176],"also":[178],"discuss":[179],"implications":[180],"finding":[183],"efforts":[185,198],"utilize":[187],"knowledge":[188],"further":[194],"research":[195],"decisions.":[201]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2025-11-06T03:46:38.306776","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}
