{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4297200060","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-022-04990-z","title":"Robust weighted aggregation of expert opinions in futures studies","display_name":"Robust weighted aggregation of expert opinions in futures studies","publication_year":2022,"publication_date":"2022-09-27","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4297200060","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-022-04990-z"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1007/s10479-022-04990-z","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-022-04990-z","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S57667410","display_name":"Annals of Operations Research","issn_l":"0254-5330","issn":["0254-5330","1572-9338"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319900","host_organization_name":"Springer Science+Business Media","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319900","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Science+Business Media","Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Annals of Operations Research","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"hybrid","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-022-04990-z","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5053139016","display_name":"Marco Marozzi","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9538-0955"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I149461666","display_name":"Ca' Foscari University of Venice","ror":"https://ror.org/04yzxz566","country_code":"IT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I149461666"]}],"countries":["IT"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Marco Marozzi","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, Ca\u2019 Foscari University of Venice, Venice, Italy","Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Venice, Italy"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, Ca\u2019 Foscari University of Venice, Venice, Italy","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I149461666"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Venice, Italy","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I149461666"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5054172341","display_name":"Mario Bolzan","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0815-2020"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I138689650","display_name":"University of Padua","ror":"https://ror.org/00240q980","country_code":"IT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I138689650"]}],"countries":["IT"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Mario Bolzan","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Padua, Padua, Italy"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Padua, Padua, Italy","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I138689650"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5016755812","display_name":"Simone Di Zio","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9139-1451"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I39387349","display_name":"University of Chieti-Pescara","ror":"https://ror.org/00qjgza05","country_code":"IT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I39387349"]}],"countries":["IT"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Simone Di Zio","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Legal and Social Sciences, University \u201cG. d\u2019Annunzio\u201d of Chieti-Pescara, Chieti, Italy","Department of Legal and Social Sciences, University \"G. d'Annunzio\" of Chieti-Pescara, Chieti, Italy"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9139-1451","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Legal and Social Sciences, University \u201cG. d\u2019Annunzio\u201d of Chieti-Pescara, Chieti, Italy","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I39387349"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Legal and Social Sciences, University \"G. d'Annunzio\" of Chieti-Pescara, Chieti, Italy","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I39387349"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":3,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5016755812"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I39387349"],"apc_list":{"value":2990,"currency":"USD","value_usd":2990},"apc_paid":{"value":2990,"currency":"USD","value_usd":2990},"fwci":5.4967,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":22,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.95632848,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":90,"max":100},"biblio":{"volume":"342","issue":"3","first_page":"1471","last_page":"1493"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12443","display_name":"Delphi Technique in Research","score":0.9977999925613403,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3312","display_name":"Sociology and Political Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12443","display_name":"Delphi Technique in Research","score":0.9977999925613403,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3312","display_name":"Sociology and Political Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10841","display_name":"Economic and Environmental Valuation","score":0.9789000153541565,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10315","display_name":"Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics","score":0.9625999927520752,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1800","display_name":"General Decision Sciences"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.7024210095405579},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/expert-elicitation","display_name":"Expert elicitation","score":0.6101306676864624},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/weighting","display_name":"Weighting","score":0.5758018493652344},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/normalization","display_name":"Normalization (sociology)","score":0.5526729226112366},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/artificial-intelligence","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","score":0.4147490859031677},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/management-science","display_name":"Management science","score":0.41305282711982727},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/machine-learning","display_name":"Machine learning","score":0.3783861994743347},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.17223411798477173},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/statistics","display_name":"Statistics","score":0.10353213548660278}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.7024210095405579},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C72161134","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5421219","display_name":"Expert elicitation","level":2,"score":0.6101306676864624},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C183115368","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q856577","display_name":"Weighting","level":2,"score":0.5758018493652344},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C136886441","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q926129","display_name":"Normalization (sociology)","level":2,"score":0.5526729226112366},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.4147490859031677},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C539667460","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2414942","display_name":"Management science","level":1,"score":0.41305282711982727},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.3783861994743347},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.17223411798477173},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.10353213548660278},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126838900","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q77604","display_name":"Radiology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C19165224","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23404","display_name":"Anthropology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144024400","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21201","display_name":"Sociology","level":0,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":4,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1007/s10479-022-04990-z","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-022-04990-z","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S57667410","display_name":"Annals of Operations Research","issn_l":"0254-5330","issn":["0254-5330","1572-9338"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319900","host_organization_name":"Springer Science+Business Media","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319900","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Science+Business Media","Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Annals of Operations Research","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:sfera.unife.it:11392/2521590","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://hdl.handle.net/11392/2521590","pdf_url":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10479-022-04990-z.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400369","display_name":"Institutional Research Information System University of Ferrara (University of Ferrara)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I201324441","host_organization_name":"University of Ferrara","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I201324441"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:spr:annopr:v:342:y:2024:i:3:d:10.1007_s10479-022-04990-z","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10479-022-04990-z","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:iris.unive.it:10278/5011522","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://hdl.handle.net/10278/5011522","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402336","display_name":"ARCA (Universit\u00e0 Ca' Foscari Venezia)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I149461666","host_organization_name":"Ca' Foscari University of Venice","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I149461666"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"other-oa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/other-oa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1007/s10479-022-04990-z","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-022-04990-z","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S57667410","display_name":"Annals of Operations Research","issn_l":"0254-5330","issn":["0254-5330","1572-9338"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319900","host_organization_name":"Springer Science+Business Media","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319900","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Science+Business Media","Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Annals of Operations Research","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320323475","display_name":"Universit\u00e0 degli Studi G. d'Annunzio Chieti - Pescara","ror":"https://ror.org/00qjgza05"}],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":36,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W152632565","https://openalex.org/W984518779","https://openalex.org/W1584545958","https://openalex.org/W1999996914","https://openalex.org/W2007367842","https://openalex.org/W2027311016","https://openalex.org/W2042714524","https://openalex.org/W2044529823","https://openalex.org/W2048562435","https://openalex.org/W2061638198","https://openalex.org/W2076629174","https://openalex.org/W2082510242","https://openalex.org/W2106811754","https://openalex.org/W2122838852","https://openalex.org/W2131161843","https://openalex.org/W2162942990","https://openalex.org/W2330204920","https://openalex.org/W2741638098","https://openalex.org/W2767112097","https://openalex.org/W2924337219","https://openalex.org/W2972237407","https://openalex.org/W2980808636","https://openalex.org/W2996844041","https://openalex.org/W3015205468","https://openalex.org/W3020674209","https://openalex.org/W3033269285","https://openalex.org/W3092060847","https://openalex.org/W3196301158","https://openalex.org/W4214946787","https://openalex.org/W4236115672","https://openalex.org/W4248996458","https://openalex.org/W4292157289","https://openalex.org/W4388156124","https://openalex.org/W6600181051","https://openalex.org/W6773756513","https://openalex.org/W7009941758"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2180954594","https://openalex.org/W2052835778","https://openalex.org/W2049003611","https://openalex.org/W2127804977","https://openalex.org/W2108418243","https://openalex.org/W164103134","https://openalex.org/W2787352659","https://openalex.org/W2299321182","https://openalex.org/W1970611213","https://openalex.org/W1707372784"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Abstract":[0],"Expert":[1],"judgments":[2,33,97,124],"are":[3,14,22,24,34,82,89],"widespread":[4],"in":[5,11,76,294],"many":[6,74],"fields,":[7],"and":[8,16,37,41,45,63,68,114,119,132,134,153,162,188,217,287,306,313,334],"the":[9,17,50,93,96,112,120,123,136,139,143,168,172,179,190,211,222,228,237,246,250,255,259,269,273,283,285,288,295,311,323,331,337,345],"way":[10],"which":[12,20,81,253],"they":[13,21],"collected":[15,166],"procedure":[18],"by":[19,99],"aggregated":[23],"considered":[25],"crucial":[26],"steps.":[27],"From":[28],"a":[29,53,60,100,126,157,193,231,279],"statistical":[30],"perspective,":[31],"expert":[32,264],"subjective":[35,144,164,291,317],"data":[36,165,292],"must":[38],"be":[39,308],"gathered":[40],"treated":[42],"as":[43,47,71,106,261,263],"carefully":[44],"scientifically":[46],"possible.":[48],"In":[49],"elicitation":[51],"phase,":[52],"multitude":[54],"of":[55,78,95,102,122,146,174,178,192,195,201,214,230,239,258,290,297,315,325,336,347],"experts":[56],"is":[57,303],"preferable":[58],"to":[59,85,92,105,186,249,310,344],"single":[61],"expert,":[62],"techniques":[64],"based":[65],"on":[66,227],"anonymity":[67],"iterations,":[69],"such":[70],"Delphi,":[72],"offer":[73,278],"advantages":[75,131],"terms":[77],"reducing":[79],"distortions,":[80],"mainly":[83],"related":[84,248],"cognitive":[86],"biases.":[87],"There":[88],"two":[90],"approaches":[91],"aggregation":[94,121,216,286,312],"given":[98],"panel":[101,194],"experts,":[103,196],"referred":[104],"behavioural":[107],"(implying":[108],"an":[109,147,205],"interaction":[110],"between":[111],"experts)":[113],"mathematical":[115,127,137,233],"(involving":[116],"non-interacting":[117],"participants":[118,260],"using":[125,167],"formula).":[128],"Both":[129],"have":[130],"disadvantages,":[133],"with":[135,171,272,342],"approach,":[138],"main":[140],"problem":[141,238],"concerns":[142],"choice":[145,229],"appropriate":[148],"formula":[149],"for":[150,160],"both":[151],"normalization":[152,218],"aggregation.":[154],"We":[155,203],"propose":[156],"new":[158,280],"method":[159,182,271,302,338],"aggregating":[161],"processing":[163,289,314],"Delphi":[169,270],"method,":[170],"aim":[173],"obtaining":[175],"robust":[176,274],"rankings":[177],"outputs.":[180],"This":[181],"makes":[183],"it":[184],"possible":[185],"normalize":[187],"aggregate":[189],"opinions":[191],"while":[197],"modelling":[198],"different":[199,215,256],"sources":[200],"uncertainty.":[202],"use":[204,213],"uncertainty":[206,247],"analysis":[207],"approach":[208],"that":[209,221],"allows":[210],"contemporaneous":[212],"functions,":[219],"so":[220],"result":[223],"does":[224],"not":[225],"depend":[226],"specific":[232],"formula,":[234],"thereby":[235],"solving":[236],"choice.":[240],"Furthermore,":[241],"we":[242,277,329],"can":[243,307],"also":[244,320],"model":[245],"weighting":[251],"system,":[252],"reflects":[254],"expertise":[257],"well":[262],"opinion":[265],"accuracy.":[266],"By":[267],"combining":[268],"ranking":[275],"procedure,":[276],"protocol":[281],"covering":[282],"elicitation,":[284],"used":[293],"construction":[296],"Delphi-based":[298],"future":[299,346],"scenarios.":[300],"The":[301],"very":[304],"flexible":[305],"applied":[309],"any":[316],"judgments,":[318],"i.e.":[319],"those":[321],"outside":[322],"context":[324],"futures":[326],"studies.":[327],"Finally,":[328],"show":[330],"validity,":[332],"reproducibility":[333],"potential":[335],"through":[339],"its":[340],"application":[341],"regard":[343],"Italian":[348],"families.":[349]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":9},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-07-29T09:40:50.615796","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}
