{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4281294218","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-022-04742-z","title":"Statistical methods for decision support systems in finance: how Benford\u2019s law predicts financial risk","display_name":"Statistical methods for decision support systems in finance: how Benford\u2019s law predicts financial risk","publication_year":2022,"publication_date":"2022-05-23","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4281294218","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-022-04742-z"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1007/s10479-022-04742-z","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-022-04742-z","pdf_url":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10479-022-04742-z.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S57667410","display_name":"Annals of Operations Research","issn_l":"0254-5330","issn":["0254-5330","1572-9338"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319900","host_organization_name":"Springer Science+Business Media","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319900","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Science+Business Media","Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Annals of Operations Research","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"hybrid","oa_url":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10479-022-04742-z.pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5089515863","display_name":"Roy Cerqueti","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1871-7371"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I28257850","display_name":"London South Bank University","ror":"https://ror.org/02vwnat91","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I28257850"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I49451733","display_name":"Universit\u00e9 d'Angers","ror":"https://ror.org/04yrqp957","country_code":"FR","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I49451733"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I861853513","display_name":"Sapienza University of Rome","ror":"https://ror.org/02be6w209","country_code":"IT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I861853513"]}],"countries":["FR","GB","IT"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Roy Cerqueti","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Social and Economic Sciences, Sapienza University of Rome, Piazzale Aldo Moro, 5, 00185, Rome, Italy","GRANEM, Universit\u00e9 d\u2019Angers, SFR Confluences, 49000, Angers, France","School of Business, London South Bank University, London, SE1 0AA, UK"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1871-7371","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Social and Economic Sciences, Sapienza University of Rome, Piazzale Aldo Moro, 5, 00185, Rome, Italy","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I861853513"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"GRANEM, Universit\u00e9 d\u2019Angers, SFR Confluences, 49000, Angers, France","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I49451733"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Business, London South Bank University, London, SE1 0AA, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I28257850"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5011076536","display_name":"Mario Maggi","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7233-4443"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I25217355","display_name":"University of Pavia","ror":"https://ror.org/00s6t1f81","country_code":"IT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I25217355"]}],"countries":["IT"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Mario Maggi","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Economics and Management, Universit\u00e0 di Pavia, via S. Felice, 5, 27100, Pavia, Italy"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Economics and Management, Universit\u00e0 di Pavia, via S. Felice, 5, 27100, Pavia, Italy","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I25217355"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5033534389","display_name":"Jessica Riccioni","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2718-5669"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I861853513","display_name":"Sapienza University of Rome","ror":"https://ror.org/02be6w209","country_code":"IT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I861853513"]}],"countries":["IT"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Jessica Riccioni","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Social and Economic Sciences, Sapienza University of Rome, Piazzale Aldo Moro, 5, 00185, Rome, Italy"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Social and Economic Sciences, Sapienza University of Rome, Piazzale Aldo Moro, 5, 00185, Rome, Italy","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I861853513"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":3,"institutions_distinct_count":4,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5011076536"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I25217355"],"apc_list":{"value":2990,"currency":"USD","value_usd":2990},"apc_paid":{"value":2990,"currency":"USD","value_usd":2990},"fwci":2.4141,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":13,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.8982333,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":94,"max":98},"biblio":{"volume":"342","issue":"3","first_page":"1445","last_page":"1469"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13720","display_name":"Benford\u2019s Law and Fraud Detection","score":0.9998000264167786,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2613","display_name":"Statistics and Probability"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13720","display_name":"Benford\u2019s Law and Fraud Detection","score":0.9998000264167786,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2613","display_name":"Statistics and Probability"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11270","display_name":"Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis","score":0.993399977684021,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10047","display_name":"Financial Markets and Investment Strategies","score":0.9850999712944031,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/benfords-law","display_name":"Benford's law","score":0.9708238840103149},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/econometrics","display_name":"Econometrics","score":0.5188137888908386},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/actuarial-science","display_name":"Actuarial science","score":0.44614097476005554},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/index","display_name":"Index (typography)","score":0.4221816956996918},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/statistical-hypothesis-testing","display_name":"Statistical hypothesis testing","score":0.41732993721961975},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.3854173719882965},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/finance","display_name":"Finance","score":0.38154199719429016},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/economics","display_name":"Economics","score":0.3618030548095703},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.3236013352870941},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/statistics","display_name":"Statistics","score":0.31201860308647156}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C152636012","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q817168","display_name":"Benford's law","level":2,"score":0.9708238840103149},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.5188137888908386},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162118730","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1128453","display_name":"Actuarial science","level":1,"score":0.44614097476005554},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777382242","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6017816","display_name":"Index (typography)","level":2,"score":0.4221816956996918},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C87007009","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q210832","display_name":"Statistical hypothesis testing","level":2,"score":0.41732993721961975},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.3854173719882965},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C10138342","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q43015","display_name":"Finance","level":1,"score":0.38154199719429016},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.3618030548095703},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.3236013352870941},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.31201860308647156},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C136764020","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q466","display_name":"World Wide Web","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":4,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1007/s10479-022-04742-z","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-022-04742-z","pdf_url":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10479-022-04742-z.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S57667410","display_name":"Annals of Operations Research","issn_l":"0254-5330","issn":["0254-5330","1572-9338"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319900","host_organization_name":"Springer Science+Business Media","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319900","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Science+Business Media","Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Annals of Operations Research","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:HAL:hal-03788859v1","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://univ-angers.hal.science/hal-03788859","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402512","display_name":"HAL (Le Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1294671590","host_organization_name":"Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1294671590"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Annals of Operations Research, In press","raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:spr:annopr:v:342:y:2024:i:3:d:10.1007_s10479-022-04742-z","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10479-022-04742-z","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:iris.uniroma1.it:11573/1653004","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/11573/1653004","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4377196107","display_name":"IRIS Research product catalog (Sapienza University of Rome)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1007/s10479-022-04742-z","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-022-04742-z","pdf_url":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10479-022-04742-z.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S57667410","display_name":"Annals of Operations Research","issn_l":"0254-5330","issn":["0254-5330","1572-9338"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319900","host_organization_name":"Springer Science+Business Media","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319900","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Science+Business Media","Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Annals of Operations Research","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/16","score":0.75,"display_name":"Peace, Justice and strong institutions"}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4281294218.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4281294218.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":97,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W14506204","https://openalex.org/W292779332","https://openalex.org/W1467477393","https://openalex.org/W1481984145","https://openalex.org/W1496204687","https://openalex.org/W1546327652","https://openalex.org/W1576326745","https://openalex.org/W1602442761","https://openalex.org/W1839785426","https://openalex.org/W1937089027","https://openalex.org/W1964342500","https://openalex.org/W1974561058","https://openalex.org/W1975855381","https://openalex.org/W1979575715","https://openalex.org/W1991163321","https://openalex.org/W1991756629","https://openalex.org/W1991898226","https://openalex.org/W1992802848","https://openalex.org/W1993416551","https://openalex.org/W1998915990","https://openalex.org/W1999814123","https://openalex.org/W1999996900","https://openalex.org/W2000595382","https://openalex.org/W2004558617","https://openalex.org/W2009716352","https://openalex.org/W2018900320","https://openalex.org/W2030344901","https://openalex.org/W2030531774","https://openalex.org/W2032873527","https://openalex.org/W2033263428","https://openalex.org/W2035983439","https://openalex.org/W2040599835","https://openalex.org/W2051726861","https://openalex.org/W2059135023","https://openalex.org/W2060626867","https://openalex.org/W2064270391","https://openalex.org/W2065194732","https://openalex.org/W2066572141","https://openalex.org/W2071935240","https://openalex.org/W2078464577","https://openalex.org/W2079748908","https://openalex.org/W2084833131","https://openalex.org/W2085766370","https://openalex.org/W2089705150","https://openalex.org/W2089798705","https://openalex.org/W2094871612","https://openalex.org/W2096880290","https://openalex.org/W2116807840","https://openalex.org/W2118369625","https://openalex.org/W2119792984","https://openalex.org/W2121938114","https://openalex.org/W2144853134","https://openalex.org/W2154295893","https://openalex.org/W2157176160","https://openalex.org/W2165048824","https://openalex.org/W2189811230","https://openalex.org/W2272318487","https://openalex.org/W2300684981","https://openalex.org/W2304517173","https://openalex.org/W2327767063","https://openalex.org/W2330003580","https://openalex.org/W2525762905","https://openalex.org/W2580777599","https://openalex.org/W2586821604","https://openalex.org/W2608821842","https://openalex.org/W2609571438","https://openalex.org/W2624385633","https://openalex.org/W2752861091","https://openalex.org/W2762385132","https://openalex.org/W2769170723","https://openalex.org/W2783389698","https://openalex.org/W2892841875","https://openalex.org/W2901725274","https://openalex.org/W2940603351","https://openalex.org/W2961078483","https://openalex.org/W2963492901","https://openalex.org/W2964315994","https://openalex.org/W2974028013","https://openalex.org/W2976348958","https://openalex.org/W2991428028","https://openalex.org/W3005160853","https://openalex.org/W3015481177","https://openalex.org/W3102824193","https://openalex.org/W3121512573","https://openalex.org/W3122164781","https://openalex.org/W3125383066","https://openalex.org/W3129869904","https://openalex.org/W3134207303","https://openalex.org/W4206774799","https://openalex.org/W4237372683","https://openalex.org/W4246315805","https://openalex.org/W4247004152","https://openalex.org/W4247827174","https://openalex.org/W4324121459","https://openalex.org/W6628565933","https://openalex.org/W6662629431","https://openalex.org/W7066200074"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2734415684","https://openalex.org/W2165048824","https://openalex.org/W1980147927","https://openalex.org/W3186068795","https://openalex.org/W3124667545","https://openalex.org/W4212843477","https://openalex.org/W2254161145","https://openalex.org/W3208799667","https://openalex.org/W3128979240","https://openalex.org/W4388511421"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Abstract":[0],"This":[1],"paper":[2],"merges":[3],"the":[4,19,34,78,92,96,108,116],"statistical":[5],"analysis":[6],"of":[7,36,40,50,56,95],"data":[8,42,59],"regularities":[9],"and":[10,65,88,120],"decision":[11,24],"support":[12,25],"systems":[13],"for":[14,27,46,115],"investors.":[15],"Specifically,":[16],"it":[17],"discusses":[18],"Benford\u2019s":[20,66,81,109],"law":[21,82],"as":[22,43],"a":[23,38],"device":[26],"financial":[28,41,47],"investments.":[29],"In":[30],"particular,":[31],"we":[32,52,69],"illustrate":[33],"role":[35],"such":[37],"property":[39],"risk":[44,87,121],"predictor":[45],"markets.":[48],"First":[49],"all,":[51],"show":[53],"empirical":[54],"evidence":[55],"accordance":[57],"between":[58],"on":[60,72],"market":[61,117],"index":[62],"daily":[63],"returns":[64],"law.":[67],"Then,":[68],"highlight":[70],"that":[71],"short":[73],"time":[74],"period":[75],"(1":[76],"year)":[77],"deviations":[79],"from":[80],"are":[83],"related":[84],"to":[85],"low":[86],"positive":[89],"trend":[90],"periods;":[91],"p":[93],"value":[94],"$$\\chi":[97],"^2$$":[98],"<mml:math":[99],"xmlns:mml=\"http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML\">":[100],"<mml:msup>":[101],"<mml:mi>\u03c7</mml:mi>":[102],"<mml:mn>2</mml:mn>":[103],"</mml:msup>":[104],"</mml:math>":[105],"test":[106],"against":[107],"distribution":[110],"displays":[111],"some":[112],"predicting":[113],"power":[114],"average":[118],"return":[119],"level.":[122]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":2}],"updated_date":"2026-07-23T08:03:31.855105","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}