{"id":"https://openalex.org/W4414395084","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10109-025-00475-2","title":"Assessing excess mortality and heat-attributable risk during the summer of 2022 in Catalonia, Spain: a Bayesian spatiotemporal analysis","display_name":"Assessing excess mortality and heat-attributable risk during the summer of 2022 in Catalonia, Spain: a Bayesian spatiotemporal analysis","publication_year":2025,"publication_date":"2025-09-22","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W4414395084","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10109-025-00475-2"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1007/s10109-025-00475-2","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10109-025-00475-2","pdf_url":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10109-025-00475-2.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S144150890","display_name":"Journal of Geographical Systems","issn_l":"1435-5930","issn":["1435-5930","1435-5949"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319900","host_organization_name":"Springer Science+Business Media","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319900","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Science+Business Media","Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of Geographical Systems","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"hybrid","oa_url":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10109-025-00475-2.pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5019395589","display_name":"Mar\u00eda Ant\u00f2nia Barcel\u00f3","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9720-690X"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I251424209","display_name":"Universitat de Girona","ror":"https://ror.org/01xdxns91","country_code":"ES","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I251424209"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I2801357902","display_name":"Instituto de Salud Carlos III","ror":"https://ror.org/00ca2c886","country_code":"ES","type":"funder","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2801357902","https://openalex.org/I4387152914"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210154894","display_name":"Centro de Investigaci\u00f3n Biom\u00e9dica en Red de Epidemiolog\u00eda y Salud P\u00fablica","ror":"https://ror.org/050q0kv47","country_code":"ES","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2801357902","https://openalex.org/I4210115082","https://openalex.org/I4210154894","https://openalex.org/I4387152914"]}],"countries":["ES"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"MariaA. Barcel\u00f3","raw_affiliation_strings":["Centro de Investigaci\u00f3n Biom\u00e9dica en Red de Epidemiolog\u00eda y Salud P\u00fablica, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain","Research Group on Statistics, Econometrics and Health (GRECS), University of Girona, Carrer de la Universitat de Girona 10, Campus de Montilivi, 17003, Girona, Spain"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Centro de Investigaci\u00f3n Biom\u00e9dica en Red de Epidemiolog\u00eda y Salud P\u00fablica, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I2801357902","https://openalex.org/I4210154894"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Research Group on Statistics, Econometrics and Health (GRECS), University of Girona, Carrer de la Universitat de Girona 10, Campus de Montilivi, 17003, Girona, Spain","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I251424209"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5037000999","display_name":"Marc S\u00e1ez","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1882-0157"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I251424209","display_name":"Universitat de Girona","ror":"https://ror.org/01xdxns91","country_code":"ES","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I251424209"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I2801357902","display_name":"Instituto de Salud Carlos III","ror":"https://ror.org/00ca2c886","country_code":"ES","type":"funder","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2801357902","https://openalex.org/I4387152914"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210154894","display_name":"Centro de Investigaci\u00f3n Biom\u00e9dica en Red de Epidemiolog\u00eda y Salud P\u00fablica","ror":"https://ror.org/050q0kv47","country_code":"ES","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2801357902","https://openalex.org/I4210115082","https://openalex.org/I4210154894","https://openalex.org/I4387152914"]}],"countries":["ES"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Marc Saez","raw_affiliation_strings":["Centro de Investigaci\u00f3n Biom\u00e9dica en Red de Epidemiolog\u00eda y Salud P\u00fablica, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain","Research Group on Statistics, Econometrics and Health (GRECS), University of Girona, Carrer de la Universitat de Girona 10, Campus de Montilivi, 17003, Girona, Spain"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1882-0157","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Centro de Investigaci\u00f3n Biom\u00e9dica en Red de Epidemiolog\u00eda y Salud P\u00fablica, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I2801357902","https://openalex.org/I4210154894"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Research Group on Statistics, Econometrics and Health (GRECS), University of Girona, Carrer de la Universitat de Girona 10, Campus de Montilivi, 17003, Girona, Spain","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I251424209"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":3,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5037000999"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I251424209","https://openalex.org/I2801357902","https://openalex.org/I4210154894"],"apc_list":{"value":3090,"currency":"USD","value_usd":3090},"apc_paid":{"value":3090,"currency":"USD","value_usd":3090},"fwci":1.3762,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":2,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.81188822,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":97,"max":98},"biblio":{"volume":"28","issue":"1","first_page":"123","last_page":"149"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11244","display_name":"Climate Change and Health Impacts","score":1.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2307","display_name":"Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11244","display_name":"Climate Change and Health Impacts","score":1.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2307","display_name":"Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10190","display_name":"Air Quality and Health Impacts","score":0.9926000237464905,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2307","display_name":"Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11109","display_name":"Thermoregulation and physiological responses","score":0.9904000163078308,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2737","display_name":"Physiology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/excess-mortality","display_name":"Excess mortality","score":0.6977999806404114},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bayesian-probability","display_name":"Bayesian probability","score":0.5550000071525574},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bayesian-hierarchical-modeling","display_name":"Bayesian hierarchical modeling","score":0.5321999788284302},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/extreme-heat","display_name":"Extreme heat","score":0.5112000107765198},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/extreme-value-theory","display_name":"Extreme value theory","score":0.42100000381469727},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bayesian-inference","display_name":"Bayesian inference","score":0.3792000114917755},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/socioeconomic-status","display_name":"Socioeconomic status","score":0.3783999979496002},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/relative-risk","display_name":"Relative risk","score":0.35409998893737793}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3018792137","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6914399","display_name":"Excess mortality","level":3,"score":0.6977999806404114},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107673813","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812534","display_name":"Bayesian probability","level":2,"score":0.5550000071525574},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C191413810","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q17100952","display_name":"Bayesian hierarchical modeling","level":4,"score":0.5321999788284302},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.527999997138977},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2993190167","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q215864","display_name":"Extreme heat","level":3,"score":0.5112000107765198},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49204034","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q52139","display_name":"Climatology","level":1,"score":0.46779999136924744},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39432304","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188847","display_name":"Environmental science","level":0,"score":0.42809998989105225},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C147581598","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q729429","display_name":"Extreme value theory","level":2,"score":0.42100000381469727},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C160234255","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812535","display_name":"Bayesian inference","level":3,"score":0.3792000114917755},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C147077947","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1515895","display_name":"Socioeconomic status","level":3,"score":0.3783999979496002},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149923435","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q37732","display_name":"Demography","level":1,"score":0.3610999882221222},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C82789193","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2142611","display_name":"Relative risk","level":3,"score":0.35409998893737793},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C158709400","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3578586","display_name":"Spatial ecology","level":2,"score":0.35179999470710754},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.3330000042915344},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2993643576","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1277161","display_name":"Climate extremes","level":3,"score":0.328900009393692},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C120195587","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2138790","display_name":"Absolute risk reduction","level":3,"score":0.32089999318122864},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.3160000145435333},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C94747663","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7574086","display_name":"Spatial variability","level":2,"score":0.31200000643730164},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C194648359","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3318054","display_name":"Generalized additive model","level":2,"score":0.2930999994277954},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41587187","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1501882","display_name":"Generalized linear model","level":2,"score":0.2928999960422516},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2993220731","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q215864","display_name":"Heat wave","level":3,"score":0.28200000524520874},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3020672099","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q857354","display_name":"Longitudinal data","level":2,"score":0.26570001244544983},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205537798","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1277161","display_name":"Extreme weather","level":3,"score":0.263700008392334},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C75007070","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2627230","display_name":"Return period","level":3,"score":0.25870001316070557}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1007/s10109-025-00475-2","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10109-025-00475-2","pdf_url":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10109-025-00475-2.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S144150890","display_name":"Journal of Geographical Systems","issn_l":"1435-5930","issn":["1435-5930","1435-5949"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319900","host_organization_name":"Springer Science+Business Media","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319900","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Science+Business Media","Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of Geographical Systems","raw_type":"journal-article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1007/s10109-025-00475-2","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10109-025-00475-2","pdf_url":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10109-025-00475-2.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S144150890","display_name":"Journal of Geographical Systems","issn_l":"1435-5930","issn":["1435-5930","1435-5949"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319900","host_organization_name":"Springer Science+Business Media","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319900","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Science+Business Media","Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of Geographical Systems","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G5239541237","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"2021 SGR 01","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334830","funder_display_name":"Ag\u00e8ncia de Gesti\u00f3 d'Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G627199996","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"2021 SGR 01197","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334830","funder_display_name":"Ag\u00e8ncia de Gesti\u00f3 d'Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320310750","display_name":"Universitat de Girona","ror":"https://ror.org/01xdxns91"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321505","display_name":"Generalitat de Catalunya","ror":"https://ror.org/01bg62x04"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334830","display_name":"Ag\u00e8ncia de Gesti\u00f3 d'Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca","ror":"https://ror.org/01n4pqe45"}],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4414395084.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W4414395084.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":30,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1487139063","https://openalex.org/W1837874438","https://openalex.org/W1883988710","https://openalex.org/W2005553986","https://openalex.org/W2006203329","https://openalex.org/W2055730719","https://openalex.org/W2139348997","https://openalex.org/W2144898279","https://openalex.org/W2340515955","https://openalex.org/W2347079185","https://openalex.org/W2795891908","https://openalex.org/W2808594900","https://openalex.org/W2897220734","https://openalex.org/W3006027310","https://openalex.org/W3048123719","https://openalex.org/W3120411288","https://openalex.org/W3151843746","https://openalex.org/W3170689778","https://openalex.org/W3170961712","https://openalex.org/W4223435193","https://openalex.org/W4223930025","https://openalex.org/W4284992074","https://openalex.org/W4311677203","https://openalex.org/W4312018847","https://openalex.org/W4367049346","https://openalex.org/W4383823379","https://openalex.org/W4387451676","https://openalex.org/W4394975242","https://openalex.org/W4400775499","https://openalex.org/W4403625867"],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Abstract":[0],"In":[1],"2022,":[2,68,102,152],"excess":[3,22,56,155],"mortality":[4,57,156],"in":[5,62,231],"Spain":[6],"was":[7,157],"the":[8,39,55,65,72,97,106,148,167,183,211,217],"third":[9],"highest":[10],"on":[11,43,187],"record,":[12],"surpassed":[13],"only":[14,23,163],"by":[15,84,131,222,241],"2020":[16],"and":[17,49,69,119,124,136,205,250,255],"2015.":[18],"However,":[19],"of":[20,67,74,151,154,169,185,219],"that":[21,38,45],"23%":[24],"has":[25],"been":[26],"directly":[27],"attributed":[28],"to":[29,53,59,101,144,159,181],"extreme":[30,60,78,160,190,202],"heat.":[31,161],"The":[32],"problem":[33],"with":[34,189],"this":[35],"figure":[36],"is":[37,41],"estimate":[40,54],"based":[42],"models":[44,115,127],"could":[46],"present":[47],"biases":[48,130],"limitations.":[50],"We":[51,90,110],"proposed":[52],"attributable":[58,158],"temperatures":[61,80],"Catalonia":[63],"during":[64,147],"summer":[66,149],"assessing":[70],"how":[71],"risk":[73,168,184],"death":[75],"from":[76,99],"these":[77],"heat":[79,191],"may":[81],"be":[82],"modified":[83],"other":[85,232],"factors,":[86],"particularly":[87],"socioeconomic":[88],"variables.":[89],"employed":[91],"a":[92,245],"longitudinal":[93],"ecological":[94],"design":[95],"covering":[96],"period":[98],"2015":[100],"using":[103,132,223],"data":[104],"at":[105],"health":[107],"area":[108],"level.":[109],"used":[111,230],"generalized":[112],"linear":[113],"mixed":[114],"for":[116,120,129,243,253],"all":[117],"ages":[118],"those":[121,228],"aged":[122],"65":[123,195],"older.":[125],"These":[126],"corrected":[128],"small-scale":[133],"geographic":[134,225],"units":[135,226],"explicitly":[137,235],"took":[138],"spatial":[139,237,254],"variability":[140,238],"into":[141,239],"account.":[142],"According":[143],"our":[145],"results,":[146],"months":[150],"49.41%":[153],"Not":[162],"did":[164,174],"heatwaves":[165],"increase":[166,182],"death,":[170],"but":[171],"so":[172],"too":[173],"maximum":[175],"temperature":[176],"extremes.":[177],"Effect":[178],"modifiers":[179],"found":[180],"dying":[186],"days":[188],"were":[192],"namely:":[193],"being":[194],"years":[196],"or":[197],"older,":[198],"high":[199],"relative":[200],"humidity,":[201],"minimum":[203],"temperature,":[204],"low":[206],"income.":[207],"Our":[208],"results":[209],"suggest":[210],"following":[212],"methodological":[213],"considerations:":[214],"(i)":[215],"minimize":[216],"effects":[218],"exposure":[220],"misclassification":[221],"smaller":[224],"than":[227],"typically":[229],"studies;":[233],"(ii)":[234],"take":[236],"account":[240],"using,":[242],"example,":[244],"hierarchical":[246],"Bayesian":[247],"spatiotemporal":[248],"models;":[249],"(iii)":[251],"control":[252],"temporal":[256],"dependencies.":[257]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":2}],"updated_date":"2026-07-23T08:03:31.855105","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}