{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2066035378","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00180-014-0523-0","title":"Computing electricity spot price prediction intervals using quantile regression and forecast averaging","display_name":"Computing electricity spot price prediction intervals using quantile regression and forecast averaging","publication_year":2014,"publication_date":"2014-08-18","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2066035378","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00180-014-0523-0","mag":"2066035378"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1007/s00180-014-0523-0","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00180-014-0523-0","pdf_url":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00180-014-0523-0.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S8500805","display_name":"Computational Statistics","issn_l":"0943-4062","issn":["0943-4062","1613-9658"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319900","host_organization_name":"Springer Science+Business Media","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319900","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Science+Business Media","Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Computational Statistics","raw_type":"journal-article"},"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"hybrid","oa_url":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00180-014-0523-0.pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5011495527","display_name":"Jakub Nowotarski","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I11923345","display_name":"Wroc\u0142aw University of Science and Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/008fyn775","country_code":"PL","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I11923345"]}],"countries":["PL"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Jakub Nowotarski","raw_affiliation_strings":["Institute of Organization and Management, Wroc\u0142aw University of Technology, Wyb. Wyspia\u0144skiego 27, 50-370, Wroc\u0142aw, Poland","Institute of Organization and Management, Wroc\u0142aw University of Technology, Wroc\u0142aw, Poland 50-370#TAB#"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Institute of Organization and Management, Wroc\u0142aw University of Technology, Wyb. Wyspia\u0144skiego 27, 50-370, Wroc\u0142aw, Poland","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I11923345"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Institute of Organization and Management, Wroc\u0142aw University of Technology, Wroc\u0142aw, Poland 50-370#TAB#","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I11923345"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5080161918","display_name":"Rafa\u0142 Weron","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1619-5239"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I11923345","display_name":"Wroc\u0142aw University of Science and Technology","ror":"https://ror.org/008fyn775","country_code":"PL","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I11923345"]}],"countries":["PL"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Rafa\u0142 Weron","raw_affiliation_strings":["Institute of Organization and Management, Wroc\u0142aw University of Technology, Wyb. Wyspia\u0144skiego 27, 50-370, Wroc\u0142aw, Poland","Institute of Organization and Management, Wroc\u0142aw University of Technology, Wroc\u0142aw, Poland 50-370#TAB#"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Institute of Organization and Management, Wroc\u0142aw University of Technology, Wyb. Wyspia\u0144skiego 27, 50-370, Wroc\u0142aw, Poland","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I11923345"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Institute of Organization and Management, Wroc\u0142aw University of Technology, Wroc\u0142aw, Poland 50-370#TAB#","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I11923345"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5011495527"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I11923345"],"apc_list":{"value":2490,"currency":"EUR","value_usd":3090},"apc_paid":{"value":2490,"currency":"EUR","value_usd":3090},"fwci":5.1095,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":151,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.95902734,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":96,"max":100},"biblio":{"volume":"30","issue":"3","first_page":"791","last_page":"803"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11052","display_name":"Energy Load and Power Forecasting","score":0.9995999932289124,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2208","display_name":"Electrical and Electronic Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11052","display_name":"Energy Load and Power Forecasting","score":0.9995999932289124,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2208","display_name":"Electrical and Electronic Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.9926999807357788,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11059","display_name":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","score":0.9909999966621399,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/quantile-regression","display_name":"Quantile regression","score":0.7752206325531006},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/econometrics","display_name":"Econometrics","score":0.6922867298126221},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/quantile","display_name":"Quantile","score":0.6359314918518066},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/spot-contract","display_name":"Spot contract","score":0.6290196180343628},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/autoregressive-model","display_name":"Autoregressive model","score":0.5899509787559509},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/context","display_name":"Context (archaeology)","score":0.5834905505180359},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/nonparametric-statistics","display_name":"Nonparametric statistics","score":0.5503659248352051},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/consensus-forecast","display_name":"Consensus forecast","score":0.5241485238075256},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/prediction-interval","display_name":"Prediction interval","score":0.5224965214729309},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/electricity-price-forecasting","display_name":"Electricity price forecasting","score":0.4677294194698334},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/regression","display_name":"Regression","score":0.44326362013816833},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/electricity","display_name":"Electricity","score":0.425918847322464},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/statistics","display_name":"Statistics","score":0.3695474863052368},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.3217448592185974},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/economics","display_name":"Economics","score":0.31069034337997437},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.30352067947387695},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/electricity-market","display_name":"Electricity market","score":0.3002626597881317},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/futures-contract","display_name":"Futures contract","score":0.12391969561576843},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/engineering","display_name":"Engineering","score":0.09081169962882996},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/financial-economics","display_name":"Financial economics","score":0.08335265517234802}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C63817138","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3455889","display_name":"Quantile regression","level":2,"score":0.7752206325531006},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.6922867298126221},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C118671147","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q578714","display_name":"Quantile","level":2,"score":0.6359314918518066},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C175223733","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1047888","display_name":"Spot contract","level":3,"score":0.6290196180343628},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159877910","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2202883","display_name":"Autoregressive model","level":2,"score":0.5899509787559509},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779343474","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3109175","display_name":"Context (archaeology)","level":2,"score":0.5834905505180359},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C102366305","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1097688","display_name":"Nonparametric statistics","level":2,"score":0.5503659248352051},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C120954023","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1127277","display_name":"Consensus forecast","level":2,"score":0.5241485238075256},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C103402496","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1106171","display_name":"Prediction interval","level":2,"score":0.5224965214729309},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781104810","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23580049","display_name":"Electricity price forecasting","level":4,"score":0.4677294194698334},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C83546350","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1139051","display_name":"Regression","level":2,"score":0.44326362013816833},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C206658404","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12725","display_name":"Electricity","level":2,"score":0.425918847322464},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.3695474863052368},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.3217448592185974},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.31069034337997437},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.30352067947387695},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C146733006","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q676081","display_name":"Electricity market","level":3,"score":0.3002626597881317},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C106306483","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q183984","display_name":"Futures contract","level":2,"score":0.12391969561576843},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127413603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11023","display_name":"Engineering","level":0,"score":0.09081169962882996},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C106159729","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2294553","display_name":"Financial economics","level":1,"score":0.08335265517234802},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151730666","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7205","display_name":"Paleontology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86803240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q420","display_name":"Biology","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119599485","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q43035","display_name":"Electrical engineering","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1007/s00180-014-0523-0","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00180-014-0523-0","pdf_url":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00180-014-0523-0.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S8500805","display_name":"Computational Statistics","issn_l":"0943-4062","issn":["0943-4062","1613-9658"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319900","host_organization_name":"Springer Science+Business Media","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319900","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Science+Business Media","Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Computational Statistics","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:spr:compst:v:30:y:2015:i:3:p:791-803","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00180-014-0523-0","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1007/s00180-014-0523-0","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00180-014-0523-0","pdf_url":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00180-014-0523-0.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S8500805","display_name":"Computational Statistics","issn_l":"0943-4062","issn":["0943-4062","1613-9658"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319900","host_organization_name":"Springer Science+Business Media","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319900","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Science+Business Media","Springer Nature"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Computational Statistics","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2066035378.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2066035378.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":40,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W96632324","https://openalex.org/W185455334","https://openalex.org/W244768627","https://openalex.org/W1556289036","https://openalex.org/W1605276600","https://openalex.org/W1608670167","https://openalex.org/W1969740923","https://openalex.org/W1977970167","https://openalex.org/W1986528915","https://openalex.org/W1993387039","https://openalex.org/W2024155197","https://openalex.org/W2032327551","https://openalex.org/W2034269318","https://openalex.org/W2049986915","https://openalex.org/W2050660109","https://openalex.org/W2057070467","https://openalex.org/W2068374744","https://openalex.org/W2072516956","https://openalex.org/W2089217930","https://openalex.org/W2093652038","https://openalex.org/W2105119576","https://openalex.org/W2114573116","https://openalex.org/W2117101278","https://openalex.org/W2120475165","https://openalex.org/W2125337687","https://openalex.org/W2139290304","https://openalex.org/W2139882890","https://openalex.org/W2140641171","https://openalex.org/W2141484579","https://openalex.org/W2145777288","https://openalex.org/W2157856178","https://openalex.org/W2161020850","https://openalex.org/W2162859319","https://openalex.org/W2185592418","https://openalex.org/W2430415500","https://openalex.org/W2509512661","https://openalex.org/W3023590303","https://openalex.org/W3124842399","https://openalex.org/W4239414618","https://openalex.org/W4241653265"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2079954576","https://openalex.org/W2493814989","https://openalex.org/W2147525998","https://openalex.org/W2348371732","https://openalex.org/W1989732836","https://openalex.org/W2150379927","https://openalex.org/W3122603344","https://openalex.org/W4313887132","https://openalex.org/W2787540218","https://openalex.org/W2557658678"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"We":[0],"examine":[1],"possible":[2],"accuracy":[3],"gains":[4],"from":[5,27,40,77],"forecast":[6],"averaging":[7],"in":[8],"the":[9,56,74,85,97],"context":[10],"of":[11,14,58,64,67,96],"interval":[12],"forecasts":[13,32,36,66,79],"electricity":[15,29],"spot":[16,30],"prices.":[17],"First,":[18],"we":[19,44],"test":[20],"whether":[21],"constructing":[22,50],"empirical":[23,75],"prediction":[24],"intervals":[25],"(PI)":[26],"combined":[28,78],"price":[31],"leads":[33],"to":[34,90],"better":[35],"than":[37,94],"those":[38,95],"obtained":[39],"individual":[41,68,99],"methods.":[42],"Next,":[43],"propose":[45],"a":[46,62],"new":[47],"method":[48],"for":[49],"PI\u2014Quantile":[51],"Regression":[52],"Averaging":[53],"(QRA)\u2014which":[54],"utilizes":[55],"concept":[57],"quantile":[59],"regression":[60],"and":[61],"pool":[63],"point":[65],"(i.e.":[69],"not":[70,81],"combined)":[71],"models.":[72],"While":[73],"PI":[76,87],"do":[80],"provide":[82],"significant":[83],"gains,":[84],"QRA-based":[86],"are":[88],"found":[89],"be":[91],"more":[92],"accurate":[93],"best":[98],"model\u2014the":[100],"smoothed":[101],"nonparametric":[102],"autoregressive":[103],"model.":[104]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":14},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":15},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":10},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":12},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":16},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":26},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":18},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":13},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":8},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":9},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":4}],"updated_date":"2026-04-23T09:07:50.710637","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}