{"id":"https://openalex.org/W16661132","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-37210-0_4","title":"The Marketcast Method for Aggregating Prediction Market Forecasts","display_name":"The Marketcast Method for Aggregating Prediction Market Forecasts","publication_year":2013,"publication_date":"2013-01-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W16661132","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-37210-0_4","mag":"16661132"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1007/978-3-642-37210-0_4","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-37210-0_4","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S106296714","display_name":"Lecture notes in computer science","issn_l":"0302-9743","issn":["0302-9743","1611-3349"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319900","host_organization_name":"Springer Science+Business Media","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319900","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Science+Business Media","Springer Nature"],"type":"book series"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Lecture Notes in Computer Science","raw_type":"book-chapter"},"type":"book-chapter","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5046014908","display_name":"Pavel Atanasov","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9963-7225"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I79576946","display_name":"University of Pennsylvania","ror":"https://ror.org/00b30xv10","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I79576946"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Pavel Atanasov","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Pennsylvania, 3720 Walnut Street, Philadelphia, PA, 19104, USA"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Pennsylvania, 3720 Walnut Street, Philadelphia, PA, 19104, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I79576946"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5079172173","display_name":"Phillip Rescober","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I79576946","display_name":"University of Pennsylvania","ror":"https://ror.org/00b30xv10","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I79576946"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Phillip Rescober","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Pennsylvania, 3720 Walnut Street, Philadelphia, PA, 19104, USA"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Pennsylvania, 3720 Walnut Street, Philadelphia, PA, 19104, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I79576946"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5021911432","display_name":"Eric Stone","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I79576946","display_name":"University of Pennsylvania","ror":"https://ror.org/00b30xv10","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I79576946"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Eric Stone","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Pennsylvania, 3720 Walnut Street, Philadelphia, PA, 19104, USA"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Pennsylvania, 3720 Walnut Street, Philadelphia, PA, 19104, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I79576946"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5050407610","display_name":"Emile Servan-Schreiber","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Emile Servan-Schreiber","raw_affiliation_strings":["Lumenogic, 48 Rue du Cherche Midi, Paris, 75006, France"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Lumenogic, 48 Rue du Cherche Midi, Paris, 75006, France","institution_ids":[]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5058343329","display_name":"Barbara A. Mellers","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9869-5880"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I79576946","display_name":"University of Pennsylvania","ror":"https://ror.org/00b30xv10","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I79576946"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Barbara Mellers","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Pennsylvania, 3720 Walnut Street, Philadelphia, PA, 19104, USA"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Pennsylvania, 3720 Walnut Street, Philadelphia, PA, 19104, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I79576946"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5014744641","display_name":"Philip E. Tetlock","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I79576946","display_name":"University of Pennsylvania","ror":"https://ror.org/00b30xv10","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I79576946"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Philip Tetlock","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Pennsylvania, 3720 Walnut Street, Philadelphia, PA, 19104, USA"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Pennsylvania, 3720 Walnut Street, Philadelphia, PA, 19104, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I79576946"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5044944954","display_name":"Lyle Ungar","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2047-1443"},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I79576946","display_name":"University of Pennsylvania","ror":"https://ror.org/00b30xv10","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I79576946"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Lyle Ungar","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Pennsylvania, 3720 Walnut Street, Philadelphia, PA, 19104, USA"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Pennsylvania, 3720 Walnut Street, Philadelphia, PA, 19104, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I79576946"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":7,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5046014908"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I79576946"],"apc_list":{"value":5000,"currency":"EUR","value_usd":5392},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":6.5567,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":3,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.96053138,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":94},"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":"28","last_page":"37"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11674","display_name":"Sports Analytics and Performance","score":0.9998999834060669,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11674","display_name":"Sports Analytics and Performance","score":0.9998999834060669,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13398","display_name":"Data Analysis with R","score":0.9559999704360962,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.9502999782562256,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science","display_name":"Computer science","score":0.7761063575744629},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/matching","display_name":"Matching (statistics)","score":0.5972124338150024},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/prediction-market","display_name":"Prediction market","score":0.4971626102924347},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/opinion-poll","display_name":"Opinion poll","score":0.4847716689109802},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/market-research","display_name":"Market research","score":0.46708059310913086},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/simple","display_name":"Simple (philosophy)","score":0.4544917941093445},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/process","display_name":"Process (computing)","score":0.4507288634777069},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/ask-price","display_name":"Ask price","score":0.44932985305786133},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/econometrics","display_name":"Econometrics","score":0.4413672983646393},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/artificial-intelligence","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","score":0.38642966747283936},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/machine-learning","display_name":"Machine learning","score":0.3618880808353424},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/operations-research","display_name":"Operations research","score":0.3326166570186615},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/public-opinion","display_name":"Public opinion","score":0.27146971225738525},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/statistics","display_name":"Statistics","score":0.16566085815429688},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/finance","display_name":"Finance","score":0.08413368463516235},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/economics","display_name":"Economics","score":0.08409005403518677},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics","display_name":"Mathematics","score":0.07708677649497986},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/marketing","display_name":"Marketing","score":0.06908249855041504}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.7761063575744629},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C165064840","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1321061","display_name":"Matching (statistics)","level":2,"score":0.5972124338150024},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780021719","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q282283","display_name":"Prediction market","level":2,"score":0.4971626102924347},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779509655","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q49958","display_name":"Opinion poll","level":4,"score":0.4847716689109802},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C27564746","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q913709","display_name":"Market research","level":2,"score":0.46708059310913086},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780586882","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7520643","display_name":"Simple (philosophy)","level":2,"score":0.4544917941093445},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C98045186","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q205663","display_name":"Process (computing)","level":2,"score":0.4507288634777069},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C90329073","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q914232","display_name":"Ask price","level":2,"score":0.44932985305786133},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.4413672983646393},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.38642966747283936},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.3618880808353424},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C42475967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q194292","display_name":"Operations research","level":1,"score":0.3326166570186615},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C134698397","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q17946","display_name":"Public opinion","level":3,"score":0.27146971225738525},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.16566085815429688},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C10138342","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q43015","display_name":"Finance","level":1,"score":0.08413368463516235},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.08409005403518677},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.07708677649497986},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162853370","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q39809","display_name":"Marketing","level":1,"score":0.06908249855041504},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111919701","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9135","display_name":"Operating system","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144133560","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4830453","display_name":"Business","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17744445","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36442","display_name":"Political science","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C94625758","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7163","display_name":"Politics","level":2,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138885662","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5891","display_name":"Philosophy","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199539241","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7748","display_name":"Law","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111472728","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9471","display_name":"Epistemology","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1007/978-3-642-37210-0_4","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-37210-0_4","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S106296714","display_name":"Lecture notes in computer science","issn_l":"0302-9743","issn":["0302-9743","1611-3349"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319900","host_organization_name":"Springer Science+Business Media","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319900","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Science+Business Media","Springer Nature"],"type":"book series"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Lecture Notes in Computer Science","raw_type":"book-chapter"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":17,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1483735435","https://openalex.org/W1538844734","https://openalex.org/W1561551758","https://openalex.org/W1575704465","https://openalex.org/W1937068864","https://openalex.org/W2073241381","https://openalex.org/W2091855602","https://openalex.org/W2100539220","https://openalex.org/W2120832833","https://openalex.org/W2122825543","https://openalex.org/W2135111565","https://openalex.org/W2148919605","https://openalex.org/W2150160077","https://openalex.org/W2187753570","https://openalex.org/W3125720594","https://openalex.org/W4249247059","https://openalex.org/W4256232447"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2168627904","https://openalex.org/W2515552481","https://openalex.org/W156769215","https://openalex.org/W1570348318","https://openalex.org/W1582690777","https://openalex.org/W1543954887","https://openalex.org/W1534493224","https://openalex.org/W1901089129","https://openalex.org/W1533327633","https://openalex.org/W3125155628"],"abstract_inverted_index":null,"counts_by_year":[{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2025-11-06T03:46:38.306776","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}
