{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7089542074","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-032-08330-2_11","title":"ConformaSegment: A Conformal Prediction-Based, Uncertainty-Aware, and\u00a0Model-Agnostic Explainability Framework for\u00a0Time-Series Forecasting","display_name":"ConformaSegment: A Conformal Prediction-Based, Uncertainty-Aware, and\u00a0Model-Agnostic Explainability Framework for\u00a0Time-Series Forecasting","publication_year":2025,"publication_date":"2025-10-13","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7089542074","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-032-08330-2_11"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1007/978-3-032-08330-2_11","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-032-08330-2_11","pdf_url":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/978-3-032-08330-2_11.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764900261","display_name":"Communications in computer and information science","issn_l":"1865-0929","issn":["1865-0929","1865-0937"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319900","host_organization_name":"Springer Science+Business Media","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319900","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Science+Business Media","Springer Nature"],"type":"book series"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Communications in Computer and Information Science","raw_type":"book-chapter"},"type":"book-chapter","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"hybrid","oa_url":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/978-3-032-08330-2_11.pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":null,"display_name":"Fatima Rabia Yapicioglu","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1310145721","display_name":"SAES Group (Italy)","ror":"https://ror.org/020e1a811","country_code":"IT","type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1310145721"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I9360294","display_name":"University of Bologna","ror":"https://ror.org/01111rn36","country_code":"IT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I9360294"]}],"countries":["IT"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Fatima Rabia Yapicioglu","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy","Marketing and Sales, Automobili Lamborghini S.p.A, Sant\u2019Agata Bolognese, Italy"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I9360294"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Marketing and Sales, Automobili Lamborghini S.p.A, Sant\u2019Agata Bolognese, Italy","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1310145721"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":null,"display_name":"Meltem Aksoy","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I200332995","display_name":"TU Dortmund University","ror":"https://ror.org/01k97gp34","country_code":"DE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I200332995"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Meltem Aksoy","raw_affiliation_strings":["Research Center Trustworthy Data Science and Security, University Alliance Ruhr, Technical University Dortmund, Dortmund, Germany"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Research Center Trustworthy Data Science and Security, University Alliance Ruhr, Technical University Dortmund, Dortmund, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I200332995"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":null,"display_name":"Tuwe L\u00f6fstr\u00f6m","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I94616838","display_name":"J\u00f6nk\u00f6ping University","ror":"https://ror.org/03t54am93","country_code":"SE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I94616838"]}],"countries":["SE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Tuwe L\u00f6fstr\u00f6m","raw_affiliation_strings":["Jonkoping AI Lab, Department of Computing, Jonkoping University, J\u00f6nk\u00f6ping, Sweden"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Jonkoping AI Lab, Department of Computing, Jonkoping University, J\u00f6nk\u00f6ping, Sweden","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I94616838"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":null,"display_name":"Fabio Vitali","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I9360294","display_name":"University of Bologna","ror":"https://ror.org/01111rn36","country_code":"IT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I9360294"]}],"countries":["IT"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Fabio Vitali","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I9360294"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":null,"display_name":"Alberto Rigenti","orcid":null},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1310145721","display_name":"SAES Group (Italy)","ror":"https://ror.org/020e1a811","country_code":"IT","type":"company","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1310145721"]}],"countries":["IT"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Alberto Rigenti","raw_affiliation_strings":["Marketing and Sales, Automobili Lamborghini S.p.A, Sant\u2019Agata Bolognese, Italy"],"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Marketing and Sales, Automobili Lamborghini S.p.A, Sant\u2019Agata Bolognese, Italy","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1310145721"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":3,"institutions_distinct_count":5,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1310145721","https://openalex.org/I9360294"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.82551419,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":"218","last_page":"242"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":true,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12026","display_name":"Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI)","score":0.6729999780654907,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12026","display_name":"Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI)","score":0.6729999780654907,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13702","display_name":"Machine Learning in Healthcare","score":0.1412999927997589,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.04320000112056732,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/interpretability","display_name":"Interpretability","score":0.986299991607666},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/trustworthiness","display_name":"Trustworthiness","score":0.5694000124931335},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/interval","display_name":"Interval (graph theory)","score":0.46149998903274536},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/prediction-interval","display_name":"Prediction interval","score":0.36579999327659607},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/predictive-modelling","display_name":"Predictive modelling","score":0.3407999873161316}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781067378","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q17027399","display_name":"Interpretability","level":2,"score":0.986299991607666},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.7214999794960022},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C124101348","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q172491","display_name":"Data mining","level":1,"score":0.5727999806404114},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C153701036","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q659974","display_name":"Trustworthiness","level":2,"score":0.5694000124931335},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.5026999711990356},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778067643","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q166507","display_name":"Interval (graph theory)","level":2,"score":0.46149998903274536},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119857082","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2539","display_name":"Machine learning","level":1,"score":0.46140000224113464},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C103402496","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1106171","display_name":"Prediction interval","level":2,"score":0.36579999327659607},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C45804977","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7239673","display_name":"Predictive modelling","level":2,"score":0.3407999873161316},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C98214594","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q850275","display_name":"Conformal map","level":2,"score":0.3028999865055084},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C739882","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3560506","display_name":"Anomaly detection","level":2,"score":0.2883000075817108}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1007/978-3-032-08330-2_11","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-032-08330-2_11","pdf_url":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/978-3-032-08330-2_11.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764900261","display_name":"Communications in computer and information science","issn_l":"1865-0929","issn":["1865-0929","1865-0937"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319900","host_organization_name":"Springer Science+Business Media","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319900","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Science+Business Media","Springer Nature"],"type":"book series"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Communications in Computer and Information Science","raw_type":"book-chapter"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1007/978-3-032-08330-2_11","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-032-08330-2_11","pdf_url":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/978-3-032-08330-2_11.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764900261","display_name":"Communications in computer and information science","issn_l":"1865-0929","issn":["1865-0929","1865-0937"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319900","host_organization_name":"Springer Science+Business Media","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319900","https://openalex.org/P4310319965"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Springer Science+Business Media","Springer Nature"],"type":"book series"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Communications in Computer and Information Science","raw_type":"book-chapter"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"awards":[],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320323553","display_name":"Universit\u00e0 di Bologna","ror":"https://ror.org/01111rn36"}],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7089542074.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W7089542074.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":24,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1498436455","https://openalex.org/W1975684011","https://openalex.org/W2064675550","https://openalex.org/W2282821441","https://openalex.org/W2760082173","https://openalex.org/W2796555951","https://openalex.org/W2892285692","https://openalex.org/W2909693411","https://openalex.org/W2954112873","https://openalex.org/W2964199361","https://openalex.org/W2964716450","https://openalex.org/W2970801625","https://openalex.org/W3007066689","https://openalex.org/W3084430883","https://openalex.org/W3111587141","https://openalex.org/W3181468676","https://openalex.org/W3182546273","https://openalex.org/W4205110562","https://openalex.org/W4296437236","https://openalex.org/W4386606377","https://openalex.org/W4387885808","https://openalex.org/W4400353790","https://openalex.org/W4400439169","https://openalex.org/W4407834622"],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Abstract":[0],"Time-series":[1],"forecasting":[2,68,139],"is":[3],"crucial":[4],"for":[5,151],"data-driven":[6],"decisions":[7],"across":[8,74],"finance,":[9],"healthcare,":[10,154],"and":[11,81,95,113,126,144,157],"environmental":[12],"monitoring.":[13],"Despite":[14],"technological":[15],"advances,":[16],"identifying":[17,37],"significant":[18],"temporal":[19,63],"segments":[20,39,64,137],"impacting":[21],"predictions":[22],"remains":[23],"challenging.":[24],"We":[25],"introduce":[26],"ConformaSegment,":[27],"a":[28],"model-agnostic":[29],"explainability":[30],"framework":[31,45],"that":[32,131],"enhances":[33],"time-series":[34],"interpretability":[35,143],"by":[36,124],"critical":[38,135],"while":[40,119],"quantifying":[41],"prediction":[42,48,52,121],"uncertainty.":[43],"The":[44],"integrates":[46],"conformal":[47],"to":[49,60],"generate":[50],"reliable":[51],"intervals":[53],"with":[54],"guaranteed":[55],"coverage":[56,123],"rates,":[57],"enabling":[58],"users":[59],"understand":[61],"which":[62],"most":[65],"significantly":[66],"influence":[67],"outcomes.":[69],"Our":[70],"approach":[71],"was":[72],"validated":[73],"diverse":[75],"real-world":[76],"datasets":[77],"using":[78],"LSTM,":[79],"RNN,":[80],"GRU":[82],"models,":[83],"demonstrating":[84],"substantial":[85],"performance":[86],"improvements":[87,110],"over":[88,116],"existing":[89],"techniques":[90],"such":[91],"as":[92],"Saliency":[93],"Maps":[94],"Integrated":[96],"Gradients.":[97],"ConformaSegment":[98,132],"achieved":[99],"mean":[100],"R":[101],"$$^2$$":[102],"<mml:math":[103],"xmlns:mml=\"http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML\">":[104],"<mml:msup>":[105],"<mml:mrow/>":[106],"<mml:mn>2</mml:mn>":[107],"</mml:msup>":[108],"</mml:math>":[109],"of":[111],"42%":[112],"18%":[114],"respectively":[115],"these":[117],"methods,":[118],"enhancing":[120,148],"interval":[122],"25.73%":[125],"40.15%.":[127],"These":[128],"results":[129],"demonstrate":[130],"effectively":[133],"identifies":[134],"time":[136],"in":[138,153],"tasks,":[140],"improving":[141],"both":[142],"uncertainty":[145],"quantification,":[146],"thus":[147],"model":[149],"trustworthiness":[150],"applications":[152],"industrial":[155],"maintenance,":[156],"other":[158],"time-sensitive":[159],"domains.":[160]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-03-20T23:20:44.827607","created_date":"2025-10-13T00:00:00"}